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As of October 11, 2026, Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) trades at $1,386.29. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $1,820.00, 31.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $1,820.00 across 17 analysts. RSI at 62 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $1,316.85.
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR)
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. NASDAQ
$1,386.29
16.49 (1.20%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
78 / 100
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is currently trading at $1386.29, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($1,316.85 and $1,295.61), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth of 47.6%, significantly outpacing the technology sector median of 24.1%. Its profit margins are also strong, with a net profit margin of 24.50% and an operating margin of 30.99%, coupled with a healthy return on equity of 21.98%. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $1820, suggesting an upside of 31.3% from current levels. Despite these positive indicators, a significant amount of insider selling has been reported, with total sales amounting to $774.1 million against zero purchases. This heavy sell signal, as indicated by the insider verdict, is a notable risk factor that investors should monitor closely. The company's valuation, reflected in a P/E ratio of 82.51 and a price-to-sales ratio of 20.37, is also on the higher side compared to sector averages, though its superior growth and profitability metrics may justify this premium.
MPWR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$1,396.53
Day Range
$1,351.26 to $1,401.76
Prev Close
$1,369.80
Volume
433.7K
52-Week Range
$833.18 to $1,714.09
Market Cap
$68.13B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+143%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
MPWR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, MPWR beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
MPWR Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+31.29% Upside
Median of 17 analysts (12-month)
$1,820.00
AI Technical Analysis
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($1,316.85 and $1,295.61), signaling an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61.58, indicating bullish momentum without being overbought. The MACD is also positive, further supporting the bullish technical picture. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA at $1316.85 and the 200-day SMA at $1295.61. Volume has been below average recently, which could suggest a pause in the upward momentum. However, the overall chart structure remains constructive, with the price trading above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average, suggesting continued strength in the near term.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the recent heavy selling pressure could indicate future headwinds despite strong fundamentals.
- Given the stock's premium valuation, consider position sizing carefully and be prepared for potential volatility, especially if growth rates decelerate.
- The company's strong revenue growth and profitability metrics, coupled with a debt-free balance sheet, provide a solid foundation, but continued execution is key to justifying the current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat in Q2 2026
MPWR reported EPS of $6.50, exceeding estimates by 10.54% and driving an 8.35% stock price increase, demonstrating consistent operational excellence.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast revenue growth of 61.00% for the next quarter and 49.00% for the current year, indicating strong market demand for MPWR's products.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Significant Insider Selling
Insiders have sold over $774 million in stock with no reported purchases, signaling potential concerns or profit-taking that could weigh on future price performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
High Valuation Multiples
MPWR trades at a P/E ratio of 82.51 and P/S of 20.37, significantly above sector averages, making it vulnerable to market corrections or growth disappointments.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory over the next 6-12 months, driven by its leading position in the semiconductor market and consistent earnings beats. The median analyst price target of $1820 suggests a potential upside of 31.3% from the current price of $1386.29, supported by projected revenue growth of 49.00% for the current year and 28.00% for the next year. However, the significant insider selling activity presents a notable risk that could temper upside potential or signal a future slowdown. Investors should closely monitor future earnings reports and insider transaction data. Any failure to meet the high growth expectations embedded in its current valuation could lead to a sharp correction, especially given the premium P/E ratio of 82.51.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 68.13B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 82.51 |
| EPS (TTM) | 16.44 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.55% |
| 52 Week High | 1,714.09 |
| 52 Week Low | 833.18 |
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) presents a strong fundamental profile, characterized by exceptional revenue growth of 47.6% and strong profit margins, including a net profit margin of 24.50% and an operating margin of 30.99%. Its return on equity stands at a healthy 21.98%, and it maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, indicating a strong balance sheet with no leverage. Valuation metrics, such as a P/E ratio of 82.51 and a price-to-sales ratio of 20.37, are significantly higher than the sector medians of 34.0 and 7.5, respectively. However, MPWR's superior revenue growth (47.6% vs. sector median 24.1%) and profitability metrics (ROE 21.98% vs. sector median 13.4%) suggest that the premium valuation may be justified by its performance and growth prospects.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, most recently reporting EPS of $6.50 for the quarter ending June 2026, which was 10.54% above the estimate of $5.88 and resulted in an 8.35% stock price increase. This follows a pattern of positive surprises in prior quarters, indicating consistent operational execution. The company's revenue growth has also been impressive, with next quarter's revenue estimated to grow by 61.00% year-over-year.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is the significant insider selling activity, with over $774 million in sales reported, signaling potential concerns from management despite strong company performance. Additionally, the stock's high valuation multiples, including a P/E ratio of 82.51 and a price-to-sales ratio of 20.37, place it at a premium to its peers, making it susceptible to pullbacks if growth expectations are not met. Competition within the semiconductor industry also presents an ongoing challenge.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 61.58 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 38.56 |
| SMA 50 | 1,316.85 |
| SMA 200 | 1,295.61 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($1,316.85) above the 200-day SMA ($1,295.61), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.65
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.70
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MPWR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
MPWR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$1,358.56
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$1,386.29
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$1,282.35
MAX LOSS
-5.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (61.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$1,426.49
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$1,494.42
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$1,562.35
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
MPWR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.09%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MPWR in October 2016 would be worth about $175,214 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MPWR today could grow to about $45,685 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $322,752 and a bear case around $6,467. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MPWR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $2,545 for MPWR by 2030 in the base case, from $1,386 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $739. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MPWR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $870 | $1,614 | $2,995 |
| 2028 | $784 | $1,878 | $4,503 |
| 2029 | $749 | $2,187 | $6,380 |
| 2030 | $739 | $2,545 | $8,766 |
| 2031 | $744 | $2,963 | $11,807 |
| 2032 | $759 | $3,449 | $15,683 |
| 2033 | $782 | $4,015 | $20,611 |
| 2034 | $813 | $4,674 | $26,861 |
| 2035 | $851 | $5,441 | $34,767 |
| 2036 | $896 | $6,333 | $44,743 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MPWR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. MPWR is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MPWR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$774.1M
72 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$10.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 54.9K | $64.3M |
| May 6, 2026 | XIAO DEMING
Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $49.6M |
| Sep 28, 2026 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $40.3M |
| Feb 11, 2026 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 33.0K | $39.2M |
| Feb 10, 2026 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 34.0K | $38.8M |
| Feb 12, 2026 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 33.0K | $38.7M |
| Nov 11, 2025 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $38.3M |
| Nov 12, 2025 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.0K | $35.7M |
| Jan 4, 2024 | HSING MICHAEL R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 58.7K | $34.2M |
| Aug 1, 2025 | XIAO DEMING
Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $31.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) stock a buy?
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is currently rated a 'Buy' with a consensus score of 78. Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $1820, suggesting a 31.3% upside from the current price of $1386.29. Strong revenue growth and profitability support this rating, though significant insider selling is a point of caution.
What is MPWR stock's price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, MPWR's stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $2545.45, a downside projection of $739.18, and an upside projection of $8765.52. These are statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.
How has MPWR performed in recent earnings reports?
MPWR has consistently beaten earnings estimates. Most recently, for the quarter ending June 2026, EPS was $6.50, exceeding the estimate of $5.88 by 10.54%, which led to an 8.35% stock price increase.
What are the key risks for Monolithic Power Systems Inc.?
The main risks include substantial insider selling totaling over $774 million, a high valuation with a P/E ratio of 82.51, and intense competition within the semiconductor sector.
How does MPWR's valuation compare to its sector?
MPWR's P/E ratio of 82.51 and price-to-sales ratio of 20.37 are significantly higher than the sector medians of 34.0 and 7.5, respectively. However, its superior revenue growth and profitability metrics justify this premium.
What is the Wall Street consensus for MPWR stock?
The Wall Street consensus for MPWR is 'Buy', with 17 analysts covering the stock. The consensus score is 78 out of 100, with 3 Strong Buys, 13 Buys, and 1 Hold rating.
What is the technical outlook for MPWR stock?
Technically, MPWR shows bullish momentum, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($1,316.85 and $1,295.61) with a RSI at 61.6. Key support is seen around $1316.85 and $1295.61.