Jump to any asset
849 assets, updated daily
As of September 29, 2026, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) trades at $12.34. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $13.50, 9.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $13.50 across 36 analysts. RSI at 29 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $14.98.
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)
The Trade Desk, Inc. NASDAQ
$12.34
-0.2600 (-2.06%)
At close: Sep 28, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
47 / 100
The Trade Desk (TTD) is currently trading at $12.34, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.98 and $23.10), indicating a bearish technical trend. Despite this, insiders have demonstrated strong accumulation, with $148.9M in total purchases versus $1,381.3M in total sales, signaling significant institutional conviction. Wall Street maintains a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $13.50, suggesting limited upside. Recent earnings reports show a pattern of EPS misses, including a 15% miss in the quarter to June 2026, which led to a 21.9% price drop. Revenue growth has also decelerated, with current quarter estimates showing a 12.00% year-over-year decline. The company's profit margin is 13.61% and return on equity is 15.44%, which are slightly below sector medians.
TTD Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$12.54
Day Range
$12.18 to $12.58
Prev Close
$12.60
Volume
22.74M
52-Week Range
$12.18 to $56.39
Market Cap
$5.83B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Communication Services)
Performance vs VOX
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, TTD trades at 1.94x, -19% versus the sector average of 2.40x.
TTD Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, TTD beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
TTD Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+9.40% Upside
Median of 36 analysts (12-month)
$13.50
AI Technical Analysis
The Trade Desk's stock is exhibiting a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.98 and $23.10). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28.57, indicating oversold conditions, which could signal a potential bounce. However, the MACD is negative at -0.59, suggesting continued downward momentum. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 22.7M compared to an average of 33.9M. Key support is near the current price, with resistance levels at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The oversold RSI coupled with significant insider buying could provide a floor, but the overall trend remains weak.
ProTips
- Significant insider accumulation of $148.1M suggests strong conviction from management, potentially signaling a bottoming process despite current headwinds.
- The oversold RSI (28.57) combined with strong insider buying could present a contrarian opportunity, but traders should await confirmation of a trend reversal above the 50-day moving average.
- Given the projected revenue contraction, investors should closely monitor upcoming earnings reports and forward guidance for any signs of a turnaround in The Trade Desk's core business.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Insider Accumulation
Insiders have purchased $148.1M in stock versus $16M in sales, indicating significant confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider Trading FilingsBearish
Projected Revenue Contraction
Current quarter revenue is estimated to decline 12.00% year-over-year, with further contraction expected in subsequent periods.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Recent EPS Misses and Price Declines
The quarter to June 2026 EPS miss of 15% resulted in a 21.9% stock price drop, highlighting negative market reactions to earnings.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Mixed Wall Street Analyst Ratings
While 5 analysts rate the stock 'Buy', 23 rate it 'Hold', and 8 rate it 'Sell' or 'Strong Sell', reflecting uncertainty about future performance.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
The base case for The Trade Desk over the next 6-12 months suggests a challenging period, with continued revenue contraction and a 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street. The median price target of $13.50 implies limited upside from the current price of $12.34. The company's ability to reverse its revenue decline and return to growth will be critical for any significant stock appreciation. Upside potential could emerge if the strong insider selling translates into improved operational performance and a return to revenue growth, potentially surprising analysts who are forecasting declines. Conversely, further revenue misses, continued negative analyst sentiment, or a failure to regain upward momentum above key moving averages could lead to downside, pushing the stock towards its oversold RSI levels and potentially testing lower support.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 5.83B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A |
| EPS (TTM) | N/A |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 56.39 |
| 52 Week Low | 12.18 |
The Trade Desk's valuation appears stretched relative to its current growth prospects, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.94 compared to the sector median of 2.4. While its profit margin of 13.61% and return on equity of 15.44% are respectable, they are slightly below the sector medians of 15.6% for ROE and the sector's average revenue growth of 13.7%. Forward-looking estimates suggest continued revenue contraction, with current quarter revenue expected to decline 12.00% year-over-year and next year's revenue projected to fall by 5.00%. This contrasts with the company's past 5-year average annual growth of 19.4%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 is healthy and below the sector average.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
The Trade Desk has struggled to meet analyst EPS expectations in recent quarters, missing estimates by 15% in the quarter to June 2026 and 12.5% in the quarter to March 2026. These misses have been met with significant price declines, including a 21.9% drop following the most recent earnings report. While the company did beat estimates in the quarter to December 2025, the recent trend indicates challenges in profitability.
Key Risks
The primary risk for The Trade Desk is the projected revenue contraction, with current and next quarter estimates showing year-over-year declines. Also, the stock is trading below key moving averages, indicating a bearish technical trend. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a significant number of 'Hold' ratings and recent downgrades from firms like DA Davidson and HSBC.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 28.57 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.59 |
| SMA 50 | 14.98 |
| SMA 200 | 23.10 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $14.98, 200-day: $23.10), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 28.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with TTD? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
TTD Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$12.22
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$12.34
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$11.55
MAX LOSS
-5.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (28.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$12.58
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$12.83
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$13.19
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TTD is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 29, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TTD in September 2016 would be worth about $42,566 today, compared with about $35,663 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TTD today could grow to about $28,780 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $218,343 and a bear case around $3,794. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TTD Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $18.83 for TTD by 2030 in the base case, from $12.34 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $5.23. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TTD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $7.23 | $13.72 | $26.03 |
| 2028 | $6.16 | $15.25 | $37.73 |
| 2029 | $5.58 | $16.95 | $51.41 |
| 2030 | $5.23 | $18.83 | $67.85 |
| 2031 | $5.00 | $20.93 | $87.73 |
| 2032 | $4.84 | $23.27 | $112 |
| 2033 | $4.75 | $25.86 | $141 |
| 2034 | $4.69 | $28.75 | $176 |
| 2035 | $4.67 | $31.95 | $218 |
| 2036 | $4.68 | $35.51 | $269 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TTD's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. TTD is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
TTD Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$148.1M
1 Transactions
Sold
$16.0M
8 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$18.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2025 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 922.2K | $113.8M |
| May 20, 2020 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 282.9K | $85.8M |
| Jan 12, 2021 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 101.9K | $81.8M |
| Feb 16, 2021 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 93.2K | $80.6M |
| Apr 3, 2023 | PICKLES DAVID RANDALL
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 1.2M | $69.9M |
| Jan 13, 2021 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 70.9K | $56.4M |
| Feb 11, 2025 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 400.0K | $48.3M |
| Oct 7, 2024 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 400.0K | $45.1M |
| Sep 26, 2024 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 400.0K | $44.0M |
| Jan 29, 2021 | GREEN JEFFREY TERRY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 55.0K | $43.9M |
Page 1 of 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Trade Desk's stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, The Trade Desk's stock forecast for 2030 shows a base case price of $18.83, with a downside projection of $5.23 and an upside projection of $67.85. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is The Trade Desk stock a buy right now?
The Trade Desk is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $13.50, implying limited upside from the current $12.34 price. While insider selling has been notable, recent earnings misses and projected revenue declines present significant risks.
What are The Trade Desk's recent earnings results?
The Trade Desk missed EPS estimates by 15% in the quarter to June 2026, leading to a 21.9% stock price drop. Prior quarters also showed EPS misses, indicating recent challenges in meeting analyst expectations.
How is The Trade Desk's revenue growth trending?
Revenue growth is currently negative, with estimates for the current quarter showing a 12.00% year-over-year decline. Next quarter's revenue is projected to fall by 18.00%, and current year revenue is expected to decrease by 5.00%.
What is the insider sentiment for The Trade Desk stock?
Insider sentiment is strongly bullish, with insiders being net buyers. They have purchased $148.1M worth of stock versus selling only $16M, indicating significant accumulation and institutional conviction.
What are the key technical indicators for The Trade Desk stock?
The Trade Desk's stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.98 and $23.10), indicating a bearish trend. The RSI is oversold at 28.57, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but the MACD remains negative.
How does The Trade Desk compare to its sector peers?
The Trade Desk's price-to-sales ratio of 1.94 is below the sector median of 2.4, but its return on equity of 15.44% is slightly below the sector median of 15.6%. Sector peers are experiencing average revenue growth of 13.7%, contrasting with TTD's projected declines.