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As of September 11, 2026, Carvana Co. (CVNA) trades at $69.66. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $69.66, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $83.00 across 24 analysts. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $69.34.
Carvana Co. (CVNA)
Carvana Co. NYSE
$69.66
-0.6200 (-0.88%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is currently trading at $69.66, aligning with its fair value and indicating no immediate upside from this metric. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 42.00% increase year-over-year to $28.9 billion. This growth is supported by a majority of Wall Street analysts who maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $83.00, suggesting a potential 19.2% upside. However, this positive outlook is tempered by substantial insider selling, with $5,268.2M in total sales versus $665.6M in total purchases, signaling a heavy sell signal from management. The company's technical indicators are currently neutral, with the RSI at 49.33 and the stock trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting a lack of strong momentum. Despite these headwinds, Carvana's strong revenue trajectory and the positive sentiment from the analyst community present a mixed picture for investors.
CVNA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$71.53
Day Range
$69.43 to $71.88
Prev Close
$70.28
Volume
220.1K
52-Week Range
$54.46 to $97.38
Market Cap
$77.90B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+52%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
CVNA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CVNA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
CVNA Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+19.15% Upside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$83.00
AI Technical Analysis
Carvana's trading volume has been significantly below its average, down 95.8% recently, indicating a lack of strong conviction from market participants. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is neutral at 49.33, offering no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions. Key support levels are challenged as the stock trades above its 50-day SMA ($69.34), while resistance is present at the 200-day SMA. The MACD is positive at 0.75, but its proximity to zero suggests waning momentum. The current price action, coupled with low volume, points to a period of consolidation or potential further downside if selling pressure intensifies.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the current heavy selling pressure from insiders is a significant bearish signal that could outweigh positive revenue growth.
- Given the stock is trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout above resistance levels before initiating new long positions.
- With a fair value at the current price, investors should exercise caution and focus on risk management, potentially setting tighter stop-losses given the bearish technicals and insider selling.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $2.1 billion worth of shares versus only $1.5 million in purchases, indicating a strong heavy insider selling verdict and potentially signaling a lack of confidence in the current stock valuation.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Below Key Moving Averages
Carvana's stock is trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting bearish short-to-medium term technical momentum and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with current year estimates at $28.9 billion (42.00% YoY increase), providing a fundamental tailwind if execution remains strong.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBullish
Positive Wall Street Analyst Sentiment
A majority of 24 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $83.00, suggesting an implied upside of 19.2% from the current price.
Source: Wall Street Analyst RatingsNeutral
Mixed Earnings Performance Reaction
While Carvana has consistently beaten EPS estimates, the stock price has reacted negatively to recent earnings reports, indicating that market sentiment may be driven by factors beyond short-term earnings beats.
Source: Earnings AnalysisMarket Outlook
Carvana's outlook is cautiously neutral, with the stock currently trading at its fair value and facing headwinds from significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While the company is expected to continue its strong revenue growth trajectory, with current year estimates at $28.9 billion (42.00% YoY increase), the heavy disposition of shares by insiders suggests management's lack of conviction at current levels. The median Wall Street price target of $83.00 offers a potential upside of 19.2%, but this is contingent on overcoming the negative insider sentiment and improving technical momentum. Key catalysts for a bullish shift would include a significant reduction in insider selling, a clear break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and sustained positive earnings surprises that translate into stock price appreciation. Conversely, continued insider selling or a failure to meet revenue growth expectations could lead to a retest of lower support levels.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 77.90B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.83 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.81 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 97.38 |
| 52 Week Low | 54.46 |
Carvana's valuation appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 38.83 and EPS of $1.81, trading at a premium compared to the sector average P/E of 25.5. While the company is growing revenue at an exceptional rate of 52.4% year-over-year, its current valuation does not offer significant upside based on its fair value of $69.66. The strong revenue growth estimates for the current and next year, projecting over 40% and 24% respectively, indicate continued expansion potential. Profitability metrics are positive, with a reported EPS of $1.81, but the high P/E ratio suggests that future growth is already priced in. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the significant insider selling raises concerns about management's confidence in the current valuation. Investors should monitor forward-looking revenue growth and profitability trends against the current premium valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Carvana's recent earnings reports show a mixed performance with a tendency to beat EPS estimates. The latest quarter ending July 29, 2026, saw an EPS beat of 10.53% ($0.42 actual vs. $0.38 estimate), though the stock reacted negatively with a -7.36% price change. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, including a significant 250% EPS beat in February 2026, which was met with a -7.95% stock price decline. This pattern suggests that despite beating expectations, the market may be pricing in future growth or reacting to other factors.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Carvana is the heavy insider selling, with over $2.1 billion in sales, indicating a lack of confidence from management at current price levels. The stock is also trading below key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMA), suggesting bearish technical momentum. Also, the current valuation appears stretched relative to its fair value and sector averages, offering limited upside potential.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 49.33 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.75 |
| SMA 50 | 69.34 |
| SMA 200 | 73.20 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $69.34, 200-day: $73.20), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.46
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
CVNA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$68.96
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$69.66
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$65.31
MAX LOSS
-5.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (49.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$71.03
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$72.41
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$74.48
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
CVNA is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.52%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CVNA in April 2017 would be worth about $316,577 today, compared with about $31,831 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CVNA today could grow to about $52,828 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $400,785 and a bear case around $6,963. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CVNA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $136 for CVNA by 2030 in the base case, from $69.66 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $37.63. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CVNA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $43.35 | $82.28 | $156 |
| 2028 | $39.26 | $97.18 | $241 |
| 2029 | $37.83 | $115 | $348 |
| 2030 | $37.63 | $136 | $488 |
| 2031 | $38.21 | $160 | $671 |
| 2032 | $39.36 | $189 | $909 |
| 2033 | $40.99 | $223 | $1,217 |
| 2034 | $43.07 | $264 | $1,616 |
| 2035 | $45.57 | $312 | $2,130 |
| 2036 | $48.51 | $368 | $2,792 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CVNA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. CVNA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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CVNA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.5M
1 Transactions
Sold
$2.1B
249 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$8.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $70.2M |
| Jul 14, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 194.6K | $68.0M |
| Nov 6, 2024 | JENKINS MARK W
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 268.5K | $61.0M |
| Jul 16, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 150.0K | $52.4M |
| Jul 18, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 150.0K | $52.3M |
| Jun 6, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 150.0K | $51.9M |
| Aug 11, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 122.5K | $42.5M |
| Aug 1, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 106.6K | $39.8M |
| Oct 24, 2024 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $39.6M |
| Oct 22, 2024 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $38.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Carvana's current stock price and fair value?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is currently trading at $69.66, which is also its calculated fair value, indicating that the stock is neither undervalued nor overvalued based on current metrics.
What is the Wall Street consensus rating for Carvana stock?
The Wall Street consensus for Carvana is 'Buy', with 24 analysts covering the stock. The median price target is $83.00, suggesting a potential upside of 19.2% from the current price.
What are the main risks facing Carvana Co.?
The primary risks for Carvana include substantial insider selling totaling over $2.1 billion, neutral technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages, and a valuation that appears to be at its fair value, limiting immediate upside.
How has Carvana performed in its recent earnings reports?
Carvana has generally beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 10.53% beat in the latest report. However, the stock price reaction to these earnings has been mixed, with a notable decline following the most recent positive surprise.
What is the revenue growth outlook for Carvana?
Carvana is projected to experience strong revenue growth, with current year estimates indicating a 42.00% increase year-over-year to $28.9 billion, and next year's growth estimated at 24.00%.
What is the technical outlook for Carvana stock based on moving averages?
Technically, Carvana is showing weakness as it trades above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend.
What is Carvana's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Carvana's stock price projection for 2030 has a base case of $135.56, a downside case of $37.63, and an upside case of $488.34. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.