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As of October 11, 2026, Carvana Co. (CVNA) trades at $63.73. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $34.17, 46.4% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $83.00 across 24 analysts. RSI at 40 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $68.73.
Carvana Co. (CVNA)
Carvana Co. NYSE
$63.73
0.5300 (0.84%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is currently trading at $63.73, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($68.73 and $71.28), signaling a bearish trend. The company's recent earnings beat for the quarter ending June 2026, with EPS of $0.42 versus an estimate of $0.38, was overshadowed by a 7.36% price drop, indicating market skepticism despite the positive earnings surprise. Revenue growth remains strong at 52.4%, and the company boasts healthy profit margins, but these fundamentals are currently being overshadowed by significant insider selling and technical weakness. Despite a consensus rating of 'Buy' from Wall Street analysts with a median price target of $83.00, implying a 30.2% upside, the overwhelming insider selling activity presents a substantial risk. Insiders have sold over $2 billion in stock versus only $1.5 million in purchases, leading to a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict. This divergence between analyst optimism and insider actions warrants caution.
CVNA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$63.96
Day Range
$62.84 to $64.46
Prev Close
$63.20
Volume
6.80M
52-Week Range
$54.46 to $97.38
Market Cap
$70.64B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs RCD
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+60%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
CVNA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CVNA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
CVNA Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is exhibiting bearish momentum, with its latest trading volume at 6.79 million shares, 20.7% below its average volume of 8.57 million shares. The stock is trading below both its 50-day SMA ($68.73) and 200-day SMA ($71.28), indicating a downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.66, confirming a bearish momentum signal, and the MACD is negative at -1.69. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current trend, but the 50-day SMA at $68.73 and the 200-day SMA at $71.28 now act as resistance. The current price of $63.73 suggests further downside potential if these resistance levels are not overcome.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; the current heavy selling trend is a significant bearish signal that overrides positive analyst ratings.
- Given the bearish technical momentum and the stock trading below key moving averages, consider waiting for a confirmed trend reversal or a break above resistance before initiating new positions.
- The significant divergence between Wall Street's optimistic price targets and the aggressive insider selling warrants a cautious approach to Carvana (CVNA). Prioritize risk management and consider tighter stop-loss levels.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Aggressive Insider Selling Continues
Insiders have sold over $2 billion in stock versus only $1.5 million in purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence and potentially signaling future price weakness.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($68.73 and $71.28), with RSI below 40, confirming bearish momentum and suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Revenue Growth
Carvana's revenue growth of 52.4% significantly outpaces the sector average, indicating strong demand for its services and potential for future expansion.
Source: Company FundamentalsBullish
Positive Earnings Surprise
The company recently beat EPS estimates for the quarter ending June 2026, demonstrating operational efficiency and the ability to meet or exceed analyst expectations.
Source: Earnings ReportMarket Outlook
Carvana Co. (CVNA) faces a challenging outlook in the next 6-12 months, with significant headwinds from heavy insider selling and bearish technical signals. While Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating and a median price target of $83.00, the current price action and insider activity suggest a potential for downside. The company's strong revenue growth and profitability metrics provide a fundamental floor, but the market appears to be discounting these positives due to concerns about management sentiment and valuation. The thesis could be altered by a significant shift in insider activity or a sustained break above key technical resistance levels. Conversely, continued selling pressure, a failure to meet forward earnings expectations, or increased competition could exacerbate the bearish trend. The company's long-range projection for 2030 suggests a base case of $123.08, but the current environment points towards the downside scenario of $34.17 being more probable in the near to medium term.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 70.64B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.37 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.91 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 97.38 |
| 52 Week Low | 54.46 |
Carvana Co. (CVNA) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.82, which is higher than the sector median of 1.9. While its revenue growth of 52.4% significantly outpaces the sector average of 7.2%, its P/E ratio of 33.37 is also elevated compared to the sector median of 20.8. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 6.26% and a return on equity of 58.77%, both exceeding sector averages. However, its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 is in line with the sector average, indicating moderate leverage. The current valuation appears stretched relative to sector averages, suggesting that the strong growth and profitability may already be priced in.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Carvana Co. (CVNA) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, delivering an EPS of $0.42, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.38 by 10.53%. Despite this earnings beat, the stock experienced a price decline of 7.36%. Prior earnings reports show a mixed pattern, including a significant EPS beat of 250% in the quarter ending March 2026, which was followed by a price drop of 7.95%, and a 0% surprise in another March 2026 quarter that saw a 6.98% price increase. This inconsistency suggests that while the company can meet or beat earnings expectations, the market reaction is often negative, potentially due to forward guidance or broader market sentiment.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Carvana Co. (CVNA) stems from aggressive insider selling, with over $2 billion in stock sold against minimal purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Technically, the stock is trading below key moving averages and exhibits bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further price declines. Additionally, the company's valuation, while supported by strong revenue growth and profitability, appears elevated compared to sector averages, posing a risk if growth expectations are not met.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 39.66 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.69 |
| SMA 50 | 68.73 |
| SMA 200 | 71.28 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $68.73, 200-day: $71.28), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.46
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with CVNA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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CVNA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$65.00
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$63.73
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$67.51
MAX LOSS
-3.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (39.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$61.75
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$58.50
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$55.25
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for CVNA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CVNA in April 2017 would be worth about $287,072 today, compared with about $32,702 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CVNA today could grow to about $51,836 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $393,264 and a bear case around $6,833. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CVNA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $123 for CVNA by 2030 in the base case, from $63.73 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $34.17. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CVNA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $39.58 | $75.13 | $143 |
| 2028 | $35.79 | $88.57 | $219 |
| 2029 | $34.41 | $104 | $317 |
| 2030 | $34.17 | $123 | $443 |
| 2031 | $34.62 | $145 | $608 |
| 2032 | $35.60 | $171 | $822 |
| 2033 | $37.01 | $202 | $1,099 |
| 2034 | $38.81 | $238 | $1,456 |
| 2035 | $40.99 | $280 | $1,916 |
| 2036 | $43.54 | $330 | $2,506 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CVNA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. CVNA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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CVNA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.5M
1 Transactions
Sold
$2.0B
244 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$8.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $70.2M |
| Jul 14, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 194.6K | $68.0M |
| Nov 6, 2024 | JENKINS MARK W
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 268.5K | $61.0M |
| Jul 16, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 150.0K | $52.4M |
| Jul 18, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 150.0K | $52.3M |
| Jun 6, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 150.0K | $51.9M |
| Aug 11, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 122.5K | $42.5M |
| Aug 1, 2025 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 106.6K | $39.8M |
| Oct 24, 2024 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $39.6M |
| Oct 22, 2024 | GARCIA ERNEST C II
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 200.0K | $38.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock a buy right now?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is currently rated as a 'Sell' by our AI consensus, with a score of 21 out of 100. This is driven by significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators, despite a 'Buy' consensus from Wall Street analysts and a median price target of $83.00.
What is Carvana's (CVNA) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Carvana Co. (CVNA) has a base case price projection of $123.08 for 2030, with a downside projection of $34.17 and an upside projection of $443.39. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
How did Carvana (CVNA) perform in its latest earnings report?
In the quarter ending June 2026, Carvana Co. (CVNA) reported an EPS of $0.42, exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.38 by 10.53%. However, the stock price declined by 7.36% following the announcement.
What are the main risks facing Carvana (CVNA)?
Key risks for Carvana Co. (CVNA) include substantial insider selling totaling over $2 billion, bearish technical momentum indicated by RSI and moving average positioning, and a valuation that appears high relative to sector peers despite strong growth.
How does Carvana's (CVNA) revenue growth compare to its sector?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) exhibits exceptional revenue growth of 52.4%, significantly outpacing the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 7.2%. This strong top-line expansion is a key positive fundamental for the company.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Carvana (CVNA)?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus for Carvana Co. (CVNA), with a median price target of $83.00, suggesting a potential upside of 30.2% from the current price. The consensus score is 72 out of 100, based on 24 analysts.
What is Carvana's (CVNA) profit margin?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) reported a net profit margin of 6.26% and an operating margin of 9.22%, indicating solid profitability. These figures are strong relative to the company's growth trajectory.