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As of October 11, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) trades at $109.64. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $178.00, 62.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $178.00 across 6 analysts. RSI at 51 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $113.89.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI)
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. NASDAQ
$109.64
3.740 (3.53%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is currently trading at $109.64, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($113.89 and $110.96), indicating a neutral to slightly bearish technical trend. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates at +128.00% and next year projected at +156.00%, significantly outpacing sector averages. This growth is supported by strong analyst estimates for future earnings and revenue. However, a significant headwind exists in the form of heavy insider selling, with over $126 million in dispositions versus only $1.7 million in purchases, signaling a lack of insider confidence. While the company's profit margins remain negative, the substantial revenue growth and positive forward EPS estimates suggest a potential turnaround. The median analyst price target of $178.00 implies a 62.3% upside from the current price, but the heavy insider selling and neutral technicals temper enthusiasm, leading to a Hold consensus.
AAOI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$113.00
Day Range
$108.62 to $117.16
Prev Close
$105.90
Volume
14.47M
52-Week Range
$18.50 to $233.67
Market Cap
$9.31B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, AAOI trades at 15.62x, +108% versus the sector average of 7.50x.
AAOI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 1 quarters, AAOI beat estimates 0 times. The company has struggled to beat estimates recently.
AAOI Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($113.89 and $110.96), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 50.63, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD at 1.393555160429628 also points to a lack of strong directional conviction. Volume has been notably higher than average recently, with the latest volume at 14.47 million, 31.3% above the average of 11.02 million, which could indicate increased investor interest or distribution. Key support levels are near the 200-day SMA around $110.96, while resistance is found at the 50-day SMA near $113.89. The current price of $109.64 is below both these key averages. The stochastic indicator at 42.68 and CCI at 27.05 suggest the stock is not in oversold or overbought territory, reinforcing the neutral momentum. The chart structure implies that a break above the 50-day SMA would be needed to signal a shift towards a more bullish outlook.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant risk factor that could outweigh strong revenue growth.
- Given the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($113.89 and $110.96), a break above the $113.89 level (50-day SMA) would be a key technical signal for a potential bullish reversal.
- With negative profit margins, investors should closely track the company's cash burn rate and ensure its cash reserves are sufficient to fund operations until profitability is achieved.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Exceeding Expectations
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is projected to achieve revenue growth of +128.00% in the current year and +156.00% next year, significantly outpacing sector peers and indicating strong market demand for its products.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBullish
Recent Earnings Beat Boosts Sentiment
The company reported an EPS of $0.06 for the quarter ending June 2026, beating estimates by 200% and leading to a positive stock price reaction, suggesting improving operational performance.
Source: Earnings ReportBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold over $126 million worth of stock versus only $1.7 million in purchases, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future headwinds.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($113.89 and $110.96), suggesting a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside if support levels are breached.
Source: Technical Analysis DataMarket Outlook
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is positioned for significant revenue expansion over the next 1-2 years, with projections indicating growth rates well over 100% year-over-year. The base case scenario suggests the stock could reach $171.73 by 2030, driven by this top-line momentum and positive analyst EPS estimates for the current and next year. The company's strong revenue growth trajectory, significantly outpacing sector averages, provides a foundation for potential future profitability and stock appreciation. However, the path forward is fraught with risks that temper a more bullish stance. The heavy insider selling, coupled with current unprofitability and a neutral technical setup, suggests caution is warranted. A significant upside catalyst would be sustained positive earnings surprises and a clear path to profitability, alongside a reversal in insider selling trends. Conversely, failure to meet aggressive growth targets or continued insider divestitures could lead to a downside scenario, potentially testing lower support levels around $47.67 as indicated by long-range projections.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 9.31B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.7500 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 233.67 |
| 52 Week Low | 18.50 |
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) exhibits a mixed fundamental picture, with impressive revenue growth contrasting with ongoing profitability challenges. The company's revenue growth for the current year is projected at +128.00%, significantly exceeding the sector median of 24.1%, and is expected to accelerate to +156.00% next year. This top-line expansion is a key driver for future potential. However, AAOI is currently loss-making, with a negative EPS of -0.75 and a negative profit margin of -9.57%. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 15.62, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting the stock is trading at a premium relative to its sales, likely on growth expectations. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 is low, indicating a healthy balance sheet. While the company is not currently profitable, the strong revenue trajectory and positive forward EPS estimates from analysts suggest a potential path to profitability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) recently reported mixed earnings results. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company posted an EPS of $0.06, significantly beating the estimate of $0.02 by 200%, which corresponded with a 9.19% price increase. However, the prior quarter, ending March 2026, saw an EPS of -0.07, missing the estimate of -0.05 by 40% and resulting in a 5.46% price decline. This pattern indicates earnings volatility, but the most recent quarter's strong beat is a positive signal for future performance.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is the substantial insider selling, with over $126 million in dispositions, indicating a lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling headwinds not yet fully reflected in the stock price. Additionally, the company is currently unprofitable, with negative EPS and profit margins, making its valuation heavily reliant on future growth projections materializing. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, suggesting current technical weakness.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 50.63 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.39 |
| SMA 50 | 113.89 |
| SMA 200 | 110.96 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($113.89) above the 200-day SMA ($110.96), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with AAOI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
AAOI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$108.54
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$109.64
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$95.75
MAX LOSS
-11.8%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (50.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$111.80
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$113.97
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$117.23
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AAOI is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.16%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AAOI in October 2016 would be worth about $49,746 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AAOI today could grow to about $30,705 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $232,944 and a bear case around $4,047. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AAOI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $172 for AAOI by 2030 in the base case, from $110 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $47.67. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AAOI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $64.62 | $123 | $233 |
| 2028 | $55.44 | $137 | $340 |
| 2029 | $50.60 | $154 | $466 |
| 2030 | $47.67 | $172 | $619 |
| 2031 | $45.84 | $192 | $805 |
| 2032 | $44.73 | $215 | $1,033 |
| 2033 | $44.13 | $240 | $1,310 |
| 2034 | $43.91 | $269 | $1,648 |
| 2035 | $44.01 | $301 | $2,058 |
| 2036 | $44.37 | $337 | $2,554 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AAOI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. AAOI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AAOI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.7M
6 Transactions
Sold
$126.0M
53 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | DELANEY CYNTHIA
Director
|
Sell | 56.6K | $10.7M |
| May 19, 2026 | LIN CHIH-HSIANG THOMPSON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 58.0K | $10.0M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | LIN CHIH-HSIANG THOMPSON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 59.0K | $9.8M |
| Mar 3, 2026 | LOBOA ELIZABETH G
Director
|
Sell | 102.3K | $9.8M |
| Jun 17, 2026 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED
Officer
|
Sell | 40.3K | $6.9M |
| May 19, 2026 | YEH SHU-HUA JOSHUA
Officer
|
Sell | 39.2K | $6.8M |
| May 19, 2026 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED
Officer
|
Sell | 33.6K | $5.8M |
| May 19, 2026 | MURRY STEFAN J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 33.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED
Officer
|
Sell | 34.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | MURRY STEFAN J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 33.0K | $5.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) stock a buy right now?
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is currently rated as a Hold. While the company shows strong revenue growth potential and a median analyst price target of $178.00, significant insider selling and negative profit margins present considerable risks.
What is the outlook for Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) stock?
The outlook for AAOI is cautiously optimistic, driven by projected strong revenue growth exceeding 128% this year and 156% next year. However, this is tempered by ongoing profitability concerns and heavy insider selling.
What are the biggest risks facing Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI)?
The most significant risks for AAOI include substantial insider selling totaling over $126 million, the company's current lack of profitability with negative EPS and margins, and a neutral technical momentum below key moving averages.
How does Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) compare to its sector peers?
AAOI's revenue growth significantly outpaces the sector median of 24.1%, but its price-to-sales ratio of 15.62 is higher than the sector median of 7.5, indicating a premium valuation based on growth expectations. The company's profit margins are currently negative, contrasting with the sector's positive median ROE of 13.4%.
What was Applied Optoelectronics Inc.'s (AAOI) most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter ending June 2026, AAOI reported an EPS of $0.06, beating estimates by 200% and leading to a price increase. This followed a miss in the prior quarter, showing earnings volatility but a positive recent trend.
What are Wall Street analysts' price targets for Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI)?
Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $178.00 for AAOI, with a high of $220 and a low of $109. This suggests a potential upside of 62.3% from the current price of $109.64.
Does Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) pay a dividend?
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) does not currently pay a dividend, with a reported dividend yield and rate of 0%.
What is the long-term projection for Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) stock?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case projection for AAOI stock in 2030 is $171.73, with a downside scenario of $47.67 and an upside scenario of $618.65. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.