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As of September 11, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) trades at $105.83. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $105.83, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $178.00 across 6 analysts. RSI at 35 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $114.75.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI)
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. NASDAQ
$105.83
2.540 (2.46%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is currently trading at $105.83, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed technical picture. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 128.00% year-over-year increase, reaching $1.04 billion. This growth is expected to accelerate significantly in the next year, with estimates at $2.66 billion. However, this positive outlook is tempered by substantial insider selling, with $145.0M in total sales versus $4.6M in total purchases, signaling potential headwinds. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a 'Hold', with a median price target of $178, implying a substantial 68.2% upside potential. Despite the strong revenue growth and analyst upside, the significant insider selling and bearish technical momentum, as indicated by the RSI at 34.58, warrant caution. The company's negative EPS of -0.77 also presents a fundamental challenge, making its current valuation metrics difficult to assess.
AAOI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$104.84
Day Range
$104.16 to $108.60
Prev Close
$103.29
Volume
96.1K
52-Week Range
$18.50 to $233.67
Market Cap
$8.77B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, AAOI trades at 15.62x, +272% versus the sector average of 4.20x.
AAOI Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is trading below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs, suggesting near-term weakness, though it remains above its 200-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.58, indicating bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -4.99, further reinforcing the bearish technical signal. Volume has been significantly below average, with the latest volume at 96,065 compared to a 5,589,225 average, suggesting a lack of conviction from traders. Key support levels are implied by the 200-day SMA at $103.24, while resistance may be found near the 50-day SMA at $114.75. The current price action suggests a potential for further downside pressure if key support is breached.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant risk factor that could impede upside potential.
- Given the bearish technical momentum (RSI at 34.58) and the stock trading below its 50-day SMA, consider waiting for a clearer technical signal or a confirmed shift in insider sentiment before initiating new positions.
- Focus on the company's ability to achieve profitability amidst its rapid revenue expansion; a negative EPS remains a key concern despite strong top-line growth.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Exceeding Expectations
Current year revenue is projected to grow by 128.00% YoY, with next year's estimates at 156.00%, indicating significant market demand and expansion potential for AAOI's products.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Recent Earnings Beat
The latest earnings report on August 6, 2026, showed an EPS beat of 200% and a positive stock price reaction, suggesting improving operational performance.
Source: Earnings ReportBearish
Heavy Insider Selling
Insiders have sold over $122.1 million worth of stock versus only $1.7 million in purchases, signaling a potential lack of confidence in near-term stock performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The RSI is at 34.58, indicating bearish momentum, and the stock is trading below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs, suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) faces a bifurcated outlook, balancing exceptional revenue growth potential against significant insider selling and bearish technical signals. The median analyst price target of $178 suggests a strong conviction in the company's future prospects, driven by projected revenue growth exceeding 150% next year. This growth trajectory, if sustained and translated into profitability, could support a significant re-rating of the stock. However, the 'Hold' consensus and the heavy insider selling signal a need for caution. The current technical setup, with the RSI in bearish territory and the stock below key moving averages, indicates that near-term price appreciation may be challenged. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports for signs of sustained profitability and watch for any shifts in insider sentiment or technical indicators to confirm a potential bullish reversal.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 8.77B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.7700 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 233.67 |
| 52 Week Low | 18.50 |
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) exhibits a challenging fundamental picture, marked by a negative EPS of -0.77, rendering its P/E ratio mathematically negative and thus not a useful valuation metric. While the company is experiencing explosive revenue growth, projected at 128.00% year-over-year for the current year and 156.00% for the next, this growth is not yet translating into profitability. The significant insider selling, totaling over $122 million, raises concerns about management's confidence in the company's near-term prospects despite the impressive top-line expansion. The company's valuation is difficult to assess due to its negative EPS. However, the projected revenue growth is exceptionally high, suggesting a potential for future profitability if operational efficiencies can be achieved. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to convert this revenue growth into positive earnings and manage its balance sheet effectively, especially given the substantial insider dispositions.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) recently reported an earnings beat for its August 6, 2026, quarter, with actual EPS of $0.06 significantly exceeding the estimate of $0.02, a 200% surprise, which was accompanied by a 9.19% stock price increase. However, the prior quarter on May 7, 2026, showed a miss, with actual EPS of -0.07 against an estimate of -0.05, a -40% surprise, leading to a 5.46% stock price decline. This mixed performance indicates volatility in earnings, though the most recent quarter demonstrates a positive turnaround.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is the substantial insider selling, with over $122 million in dispositions versus only $1.7 million in purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the company's negative EPS of -0.77 highlights ongoing profitability challenges despite impressive revenue growth. Technically, bearish momentum is evident with the RSI at 34.58 and the price trading below its 50-day SMA, suggesting potential for further price declines.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 34.58 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.99 |
| SMA 50 | 114.75 |
| SMA 200 | 103.24 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($114.75) above the 200-day SMA ($103.24), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
AAOI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$104.77
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$105.83
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$92.59
MAX LOSS
-11.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (34.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$107.91
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$110.01
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$113.15
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AAOI is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 7.75%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AAOI in September 2016 would be worth about $50,583 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AAOI today could grow to about $30,914 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $234,534 and a bear case around $4,075. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AAOI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $166 for AAOI by 2030 in the base case, from $106 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $46.14. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AAOI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $62.42 | $118 | $225 |
| 2028 | $53.59 | $133 | $328 |
| 2029 | $48.94 | $148 | $450 |
| 2030 | $46.14 | $166 | $599 |
| 2031 | $44.40 | $186 | $780 |
| 2032 | $43.35 | $208 | $1,001 |
| 2033 | $42.80 | $233 | $1,271 |
| 2034 | $42.62 | $261 | $1,599 |
| 2035 | $42.74 | $292 | $1,998 |
| 2036 | $43.12 | $327 | $2,482 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AAOI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. AAOI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AAOI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.7M
6 Transactions
Sold
$122.1M
52 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | DELANEY CYNTHIA
Director
|
Sell | 56.6K | $10.7M |
| May 19, 2026 | LIN CHIH-HSIANG THOMPSON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 58.0K | $10.0M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | LIN CHIH-HSIANG THOMPSON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 59.0K | $9.8M |
| Mar 3, 2026 | LOBOA ELIZABETH G
Director
|
Sell | 102.3K | $9.8M |
| Jun 17, 2026 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED
Officer
|
Sell | 40.3K | $6.9M |
| May 19, 2026 | YEH SHU-HUA JOSHUA
Officer
|
Sell | 39.2K | $6.8M |
| May 19, 2026 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED
Officer
|
Sell | 33.6K | $5.8M |
| May 19, 2026 | MURRY STEFAN J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 33.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED
Officer
|
Sell | 34.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | MURRY STEFAN J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 33.0K | $5.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Applied Optoelectronics Inc.'s (AAOI) current stock price?
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is currently trading at $105.83 as of September 11, 2026.
What is the Wall Street consensus rating for AAOI stock?
The Wall Street consensus rating for AAOI is 'Hold', with 6 analysts covering the stock. The consensus score is 71 out of 100.
What is the median analyst price target for AAOI?
The median analyst price target for AAOI is $178.00, suggesting a potential upside of 68.2% from the current stock price.
Is AAOI stock experiencing insider selling?
Yes, AAOI is experiencing significant insider selling pressure, with $145.0M in total sales versus $4.6M in total purchases, according to the insider summary.
What is the revenue growth outlook for Applied Optoelectronics Inc.?
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. has a strong revenue growth outlook, with current year estimates projecting a 128.00% year-over-year increase and next year's estimates at 156.00%.
What are the key technical indicators for AAOI stock?
Key technical indicators for AAOI show bearish momentum, with the RSI at 34.6 and the stock trading below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs, although it remains above its 200-day SMA.
Does AAOI have a positive EPS?
No, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. currently has a negative EPS of -0.77, which makes traditional P/E ratio analysis impossible.
What is AAOI's stock price projection for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, AAOI's projected base price for 2030 is $166.22, with a downside projection of $46.14 and an upside projection of $598.77. These are simulation outcomes, not price targets.