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Head-to-head · Stock vs Stock
Rocket Lab USA vs AST SpaceMobile
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RKLB vs ASTS: the verdict
How RKLB and ASTS compare today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
The verdict
CleaRank Financial AI favours
RKLB
RKLB
ASTS
39/100
AI score
27/100
-11.1%
1-year change
-46.5%
72.5%
Volatility (30d, yearly)
80.7%
45.1
RSI (14-day)
30.5
None
Dividend yield
None
The verdict
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) comes out ahead on CleaRank's model, scoring 39/100 (Sell) against 27/100 (Sell) for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS). The widest gap is the earnings record, where ASTS is weaker: it beat estimates in 0 of the 3 reports in our data and the latest report missed the estimate by 133.33%.
Outlook
ASTS would need to regain its 50-day average at $57.68 and its 200-day at $78.83 to turn its downtrend.
Price, side by side
Both prices start at 0% on the first day of the period you pick, so the moves compare directly.
Rebased price
-40%-30%-20%-10%0%-27%-36%
Oct '26
-20%0%+20%-20%-32%
Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
-50%0%+50%-35%-49%
May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
-50%0%+50%+100%-17%-46%
Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
0%+500%+1000%+1500%+2000%+649%+2.2%
Sep '24Feb '25Jul '25Dec '25May '26Oct '26
Over 1 year: RKLB lost 16.6% and ASTS lost 46.5%, a gap of 29.8 points in RKLB's favour.
Valuation and profitability
What each costs relative to its earnings and sales, and how much of its revenue it keeps.
Side by side
Valuation
Lower multiples mean you pay less for each dollar of earnings or sales.
RKLB
ASTS
$37.3B
Market cap
$15.4B
48.5x
Price / sales
181x
10.0x
Price / book
N/A
Profitability
How much of each dollar of revenue becomes profit, and how hard the capital works.
RKLB
ASTS
+63.5%
Revenue growth (quarter, y/y)
+2,626.6%
-21.5%
Net margin
-761.7%
-7.9%
Return on equity
-45.6%
-4.6%
Return on assets
-7.6%
0.04
Debt / equity
1.25
On valuation
Measured against sales, ASTS carries the richer valuation, trading at 182.32 times to RKLB's 43.73.
On profitability
Measured by net margin, RKLB turns more of its sales into profit: -21.51% against -761.72% for ASTS. Return on equity tells the same story, with RKLB at -7.92% and ASTS at -45.62%, so RKLB earns the higher return. Year on year in the latest quarter, RKLB grew revenue 63.46%, while ASTS grew it 2,626.60%. Our data reports no dividend for either RKLB or ASTS.
Earnings reality check
RKLB
RKLB beat the estimate in 4 of its last 7 reports (latest Aug '26); the shares fell the next session after 2 of those beats.
Surprise
Next session
Aug '24May '25Nov '25Aug '26
ASTS
ASTS beat the estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports (latest Aug '26); the shares fell the next session after 1 of those beats.
Surprise
Next session
Nov '24May '25Mar '26Aug '26
Momentum and sentiment
The indicators behind each AI score, side by side.
Indicators side by side
RKLB
ASTS
39/100
AI score
27/100
45.1
RSI (14-day)
30.5
-10.8%
Price against 50-day average
-30.8%
-27.4%
Price against 200-day average
-49.8%
Technicals
Its 14-day RSI is 36.1, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative. ASTS is in a downtrend, trading 30.85% below its 50-day average and 49.79% below its 200-day average. Its 14-day RSI is 30.9, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative. RKLB sits higher in its 52-week range, at 14% against 3% for ASTS.
Sentiment
Of the 13 analysts covering ASTS, 4 rate it buy, 7 hold and 2 sell; their median target is $78.00, 96.0% above the price.
Risk and practical tips
How much each moves, how much return each has paid for that risk, and what to watch if you hold either.
Risk measures
RKLB
ASTS
72.5%
Volatility (30d, yearly)
80.7%
2.94
Beta against the S&P 500
2.71
1.45
Sharpe ratio
0.57
Risk
ASTS moves more on an average day, 4.92% against 4.19% for RKLB. Against the S&P 500, RKLB has a beta of 2.94 and ASTS 2.71. Their worst falls in the price history were 77.8% for RKLB (November 2021 to April 2024) and 90.4% for ASTS (February 2021 to April 2024). On these measures together, ASTS is the riskier of the two.
ProTips
- For ASTS, watch the 20-day EMA at $48.38 above the price and the 52-week low at $36.72 below it.
RKLB vs ASTS: long-term scenarios
Simulated paths from each price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Simulated growth of $10,000
$20K$40K$60K$72.5K$69.2K$17.3K$16.5K
2026202820302031
RKLB
ASTS
$4,131
Downside, 2031 (10th)
$3,942
$17,310
Base case, 2031 (median)
$16,522
$72,542
Upside, 2031 (90th)
$69,237
In the median simulated path, $10,000 in RKLB grows to about $17,300 and $10,000 in ASTS to about $16,500 by 2031. The paths come from each asset's own historical volatility and trend; they are statistical outcomes, not forecasts.
Trade plans for both
Entry, stop and target levels from each moving average and its volatility. Educational, not advice.
Actionable Trade Plans
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
RKLB
Current: $58.31
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$59.48
Aggressive
$58.31
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$61.26
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
-5% from current
$55.39
-10% from current
$52.48
-15% from current
$49.56
ASTS
Current: $39.45
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$40.24
Aggressive
$39.45
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$41.45
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
-5% from current
$37.48
-10% from current
$35.51
-15% from current
$33.53
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
The content is for educational purposes only. ASTS is the more volatile asset here, and volatile prices can move sharply in either direction. Trading involves risk of loss. Note: The AI favored RKLB based on its earnings record, on today's data.
RKLB vs ASTS: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is better, RKLB or ASTS?+
On CleaRank's model RKLB scores higher, 39/100 (Sell) against 27/100 (Sell) for ASTS. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation.
Which is riskier, RKLB or ASTS?+
ASTS is the riskier of the two on the measures we track. Average daily move: 4.19% for RKLB, 4.92% for ASTS. Beta against the S&P 500: 2.94 for RKLB, 2.71 for ASTS. Worst fall in the price history: 77.8% for RKLB, 90.4% for ASTS.
Which has stronger momentum right now, RKLB or ASTS?+
Both MACD lines are negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
What do analysts say about RKLB and ASTS?+
ASTS has 4 buy ratings out of 13, and its median target is 96.0% above the price.
Are RKLB and ASTS in an uptrend?+
ASTS is in a downtrend, trading 30.85% below its 50-day average and 49.53% below its 200-day.
How have RKLB and ASTS performed over the past year?+
Over the 12 months to October 28, 2026, RKLB's price fell 11.1% and ASTS's fell 46.5%. These are price changes; dividends are not included.