Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)
- Market cap
- $249.40B
- P/E
- 24.27
- Dividend yield
- 1.05%
- Street target
- $188.93median of 41 analysts
- 52-week range
- $91.99 $182.50
BABA stock forecast today
Where BABA stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
BABA at a glance
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA): Sell, 40/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($111.45 and $127.26).
- Valuation P/E of 24.3 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: broadly in line with peers (+17%).
Figures as of October 27, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) Sell, with a model score of 40/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 39 of 41 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 88.5% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 21.23% below its 200-day average and 10.06% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 12.43% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $111.45 and the 200-day at $127.26. Over the past year the price fell 44.14%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from BABA's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
BABA stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $100.24 is 10.1% below the 50-day simple moving average of $111.45.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 21.2% below the 200-day simple moving average of $127.26.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($111.45) is 12.4% below the 200-day average ($127.26), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 9% of its 52-week range, between $91.99 and $182.50.
BABA share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far BABA has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where BABA sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
BABA fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
3/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 24.27 is 16.7% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 1.59 is 16.2% below the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $11.0B on revenue of $156.7B, a net margin of 7.0%.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 1.05%, or $1.05 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for BABA.
As of October 27, 2026, BABA trades at $100.24, with a market value of $249.40B, a P/E ratio of 24.27 and a dividend yield of 1.05%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of BABA's valuation, growth and risks.
BABA trades at 24.27 times trailing earnings, which is 16.7% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8. The peer comparison on this page calls that P/E broadly in line with peers. On sales, the price-to-sales ratio of 1.59 is 16.3% below the sector median of 1.9.
The company converts sales into profit at a net margin of 7.04% and an operating margin of 7.30%. Return on equity stands at 6.36%, which is below the sector median of 12.4%. On the balance sheet, debt-to-equity is 0.24, and the trailing dividend yield is 1.05%, or $1.05 a share per year.
Normal swings for BABA run at about 2.19% a day, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.46. Until the price regains its moving averages, the trend works against holders. The price is 45.07% below its 52-week high of $182.50.
BABA against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How BABA compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (17% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
Return vs SPY: Since May 15, 2025, BABA has lost 19.1% against a gain of 30.4% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
BABA and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much BABA sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 2.7% in FY2026 to CN¥1.02T, from CN¥996B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 10.0% in FY2026, down from 12.6% the year before.
Profitable: BABA earned CN¥102B in FY2026.
BABA AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 31.8, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 31.8 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of BABA
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is trading in a downtrend. At $100.24, the stock is 10.06% below its 50-day average of $111.45 and 21.23% below its 200-day average of $127.26. It also sits close to the floor of its 52-week range: the price is 8.97% above the low of $91.99, and 45.07% below the high of $182.50.
The 14-day RSI of 31.8 is in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, and the MACD line is negative. The recent returns are all negative: the price fell 12.98% over the past three months, fell 23.39% over the past six months and fell 44.14% over the past year. Volume in the last session ran 28.2% below its average, on a day the price fell 0.01%.
Rating reaffirmed ›
JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating on October 12, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, JP Morgan, October 12, 2026
- The two nearest levels to watch are the 20-day EMA at $106.42, which sits above the price, and the 52-week low at $91.99, which sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 31.8, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
The trend is down because BABA sits beneath both its 50-day ($111.45) and 200-day ($127.26) averages. A move back above the 50-day would be the first sign of repair. The 20-day EMA, at $106.42, is the closest level overhead.
The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $91.99. With the RSI in the bearish zone, momentum still leans toward lower prices.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for BABA, from its daily closes.
As of October 27, 2026, with BABA at $100.24, its 14-day RSI is 31.8 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $111.45 and its 200-day is $127.26.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What BABA moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 27, 2026, BABA's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.33 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.33 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.15 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.15 with gold (XAU).
BABA price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
3/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
39 of 41 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $188.93 is 88.5% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
39 of 41 rate it a buy now, against 38 of 40 three months ago.
BABA Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform |
As of October 27, 2026, 41 Wall Street analysts cover BABA: 39 rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $95.80 to $239.72. The median BABA price target is $188.93, 88.5% above the price of $100.24.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
BABA trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
BABA trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from BABA's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much BABA tends to move, against the market and on its own.
BABA price history and drawdowns
BABA's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.19% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 79.0%, from November 2020 to November 2022; the price is still 66.0% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
53% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $10,309, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
BABA Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 27, 2026, BABA's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -79.0% (November 2020 to November 2022); it is still 66.0% below that peak, and 53% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into BABA in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: BABA trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $10,309 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in BABA in October 2016 would be worth about $10,309 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to BABA, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +12.53%, up in 7 of 10 years.
Weakest month, December: an average of -3.21%, up in 2 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -1.93%, up in 3 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, BABA's strongest calendar month has been January (average +12.53%, up in 7 of 10 years) and its weakest December (average -3.21%, up in 2 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
BABA stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in BABA, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in BABA today could grow to about $11,259 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $34,110 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $3,716. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.05% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BABA Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $113 for BABA by 2030 in the base case, from $100 today (1.1x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $37.25. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BABA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $59.32 | $103 | $180 | |
| 2028 | $48.57 | $106 | $233 | |
| 2029 | $41.95 | $110 | $286 | |
| 2030 | $37.25 | $113 | $342 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of BABA's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
BABA stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.