Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)
- Market cap
- $276.46B
- P/E
- 26.84
- Dividend yield
- 0.96%
- Street target
- $188.48median of 40 analysts
- 52-week range
- $91.99 $182.50
The short version
Where BABA stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
BABA at a glance
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA): Buy, 78/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($114.68 and $128.96).
- Valuation P/E of 26.8 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a premium to peers (+29%).
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is currently trading at $109.91, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($114.68 and $128.96).
Despite this technical positioning, the company is backed by a strong 'Buy' consensus from 40 Wall Street analysts, who collectively assign a median price target of $188.48, implying a substantial 71.5% upside potential. The company's fundamentals show a price-to-sales ratio of 1.77, which is slightly below the sector median of 1.9, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24, indicating a healthy balance sheet. Revenue growth is projected to be around 10.00% for the current year, with forward-looking estimates suggesting continued expansion. The recent dividend rate of $1.05, yielding approximately 0.96%, adds a modest income component for investors.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from BABA's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $109.91 is 4.2% below the 50-day simple moving average of $114.68.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 14.8% below the 200-day simple moving average of $128.96.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($114.68) is 11.1% below the 200-day average ($128.96), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 20% of its 52-week range, between $91.99 and $182.50.
BABA share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far BABA has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where BABA sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
3/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 26.84 is 29.1% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 1.77 is 6.8% below the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $11.0B on revenue of $156.1B, a net margin of 7.0%.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 0.96%, or $1.05 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for BABA.
As of October 16, 2026, BABA trades at $109.91, with a market value of $276.46B, a P/E ratio of 26.84 and a dividend yield of 0.96%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of BABA's valuation, growth and risks.
Alibaba's valuation metrics present a mixed picture, with a P/E ratio of 26.84 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.77, which is slightly below the sector median of 1.9.
The company's return on equity stands at 6.36%, below the sector average of 12.4%, while its profit margin is 7.04% and operating margin is 7.30%. Despite these figures, Wall Street's revenue growth estimates are positive, with the current year projected at +10.00% and next year at +13.00%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 is well within healthy limits and below the sector average. The forward-looking growth estimates, particularly for the next year at 40.4%, suggest that analysts anticipate a significant acceleration in the company's performance.
BABA against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How BABA compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: BABA trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+29%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
Return vs XLY: Since May 5, 2025, BABA has lost 12.2% against a gain of 13.8% for XLY.
Performance against XLY
BABA and the Consumer Cyclical sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much BABA sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 2.7% in FY2026 to $1.02T, from $996B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 10.0% in FY2026, down from 12.6% the year before.
Profitable: BABA earned $102B in FY2026.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 47.8, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 47.8 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of BABA
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
The stock is currently trading below both its 50-day SMA of $114.68 and its 200-day SMA of $128.96, suggesting a bearish short-term trend.
The 14-day RSI is at 47.83, reflecting neutral momentum, while the MACD is negative at -0.76, indicating bearish pressure. The current price of $109.91 is below the 20-day EMA of $110.24. The lack of strong volume accompanying recent price action suggests that any upward movements may face resistance from sellers. Investors should monitor for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential shift in momentum.
Strong Wall Street Buy Consensus and Price Targets ›
40 Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $188.48, representing a 71.5% upside from the current price, indicating significant analyst conviction.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsPositive Revenue Growth Projections ›
Analysts forecast current year revenue growth of 10.00% and next year's growth at 13.00%, with a strong next-year growth estimate of 40.4%, suggesting strong business expansion.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
Trading Below Key Moving Averages ›
Alibaba's stock is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($114.68) and 200-day SMA ($128.96), indicating potential short-term bearish momentum and resistance.
Source: Technical AnalysisDividend Payout ›
The company offers a dividend rate of $1.05, providing a modest yield of approximately 0.96%, which may appeal to income-oriented investors.
Source: Dividend Data
- Monitor Alibaba's ability to break above its 50-day SMA ($114.68) as a key indicator of potential trend reversal.
- The company's dividend rate of $1.05 provides a modest income stream, which may appeal to income-focused investors, though the yield is currently below 1%.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for BABA, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with BABA at $109.91, its 14-day RSI is 47.8 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $114.68 and its 200-day is $128.96.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What BABA moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, BABA's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.33 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.32 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.17 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.18 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
38 of 40 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $188.48 is 71.5% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
38 of 40 rate it a buy now, against 38 of 40 three months ago.
BABA Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform |
| May 15, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive |
As of October 16, 2026, 40 Wall Street analysts cover BABA: 38 rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $95.58 to $239.15, with a median of $188.48, 71.5% above the price of $109.91.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
BABA trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from BABA's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much BABA tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
BABA's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
0/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.08% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 79.5%, from October 2020 to October 2022; the price is still 62.4% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
55% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $11,377, against $42,525 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
BABA Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 16, 2026, BABA's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -79.5% (October 2020 to October 2022); it is still 62.4% below that peak, and 55% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into BABA in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: BABA trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $11,377 against $42,525.
A $10,000 investment in BABA in October 2016 would be worth about $11,377 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,525 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to BABA, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +12.51%, up in 7 of 10 years.
Weakest month, December: an average of -5.08%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -2.76%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, BABA's strongest calendar month has been January (average +12.51%, up in 7 of 10 years) and its weakest December (average -5.08%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in BABA, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BABA today could grow to about $14,185 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $81,712 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $2,463. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.96% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BABA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $126 for BABA by 2030 in the base case, from $110 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $41.77. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BABA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $65.43 | $114 | $198 | |
| 2028 | $53.87 | $118 | $258 | |
| 2029 | $46.78 | $122 | $318 | |
| 2030 | $41.77 | $126 | $383 | |
| 2031 | $37.95 | $131 | $452 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of BABA's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.