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As of September 11, 2026, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) trades at $108.56. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $125.10, 15.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $188.67 across 40 analysts. RSI at 16 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $117.05.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. NYSE
$108.56
-0.8400 (-0.77%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
78 / 100
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is currently trading at $108.56, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($117.05 and $134.75), indicating a bearish technical trend. Despite this, the company's fundamentals and analyst sentiment remain positive. Wall Street analysts maintain a strong 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $188.67, suggesting a potential upside of 73.8%. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 9.00% in the current and next quarters, and 10.00% for the current year, reflecting continued expansion in its core e-commerce and cloud businesses. The recent earnings report for June 2026 showed a slight miss on EPS estimates (-0.16 actual vs. -0.14 estimate), contributing to a minor price decline of 0.27%. However, the broader trend of analyst ratings remains overwhelmingly positive, with numerous 'Overweight' and 'Buy' reiterations from major firms like JP Morgan and Barclays. The company also offers a modest dividend yield of 0.97%. The primary risk remains the current oversold technical condition and geopolitical uncertainties impacting Chinese tech companies.
BABA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$108.63
Day Range
$107.72 to $109.19
Prev Close
$109.40
Volume
6.61M
52-Week Range
$91.99 to $192.67
Market Cap
$269.84B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0.004418% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
BABA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, BABA beat estimates 0 times. The company has struggled to beat estimates recently.
BABA Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+73.79% Upside
Median of 40 analysts (12-month)
$188.67
AI Technical Analysis
Momentum has turned for Alibaba: the RSI has moved from a neutral level to 16.44, indicating an oversold condition. Alibaba is trading below its 50-day SMA of $117.05 and its 200-day SMA of $134.75, signaling a bearish trend. The MACD is also negative at -2.86, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume on the latest trading day was 6.61 million shares, which is 25.4% below the average volume of 8.86 million shares. This lower volume during a downtrend suggests that selling pressure may be waning, potentially setting the stage for a reversal. Key support levels are difficult to ascertain given the current trend, but the oversold RSI suggests a potential for a near-term bounce. Resistance will likely be found at the 50-day SMA ($117.05) and then the 200-day SMA ($134.75).
ProTips
- Given the oversold RSI (16.44) and the stock trading below key moving averages, consider waiting for confirmation of a technical bounce before initiating or adding to positions.
- The recent earnings misses highlight the importance of monitoring management's guidance and execution. Focus on companies with strong forward revenue estimates and a clear path to profitability.
- Geopolitical risks associated with Chinese technology companies remain a significant factor. Diversify holdings to mitigate country-specific risks.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Analyst Buy Consensus and Price Targets
40 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $188.67, indicating significant upside potential of 73.8% from the current price.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Projected Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast revenue growth of 9.00% for the current quarter, 10.00% for the current year, and 13.00% for the next year, signaling continued business expansion.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Recent Earnings Misses
The June 2026 quarter EPS missed estimates by 14.29%, and the prior quarter saw an even larger miss, raising concerns about consistent profitability.
Source: Company Earnings ReportsBearish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($117.05 and $134.75), with an RSI of 16.44, indicating significant bearish momentum and potential for further downside if support breaks.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Alibaba's outlook for the next 6-12 months is cautiously optimistic, driven by strong analyst conviction and projected revenue growth. The median analyst target price of $188.67 suggests significant upside potential from the current price, assuming the company can overcome its recent earnings misses and navigate geopolitical headwinds. Continued revenue growth, projected at 10.00% for the current year and 13.00% for the next, provides a foundation for recovery. Key catalysts for upside include a potential rebound from oversold technical conditions and positive developments in Chinese regulatory policy. Conversely, downside risks include persistent geopolitical tensions, further earnings disappointments, and increased competition within the e-commerce and cloud sectors. The company's ability to execute on its growth strategies and improve profitability will be critical in realizing its upside potential.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 2.08T |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.56 |
| EPS (TTM) | 4.42 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9673% |
| 52 Week High | 192.67 |
| 52 Week Low | 91.99 |
Alibaba's current P/E ratio stands at 24.56, which is in line with the sector average of 24.56, suggesting fair valuation relative to its peers. The company's revenue growth for the current year is estimated at 10.00%, indicating steady expansion. However, the most recent EPS actual of -0.16 for the June 2026 quarter was a miss against an estimate of -0.14. Despite the recent earnings miss, the forward-looking revenue estimates remain strong, with the next year's growth projected at 13.00%. The company pays a dividend yield of 0.97%. While valuation appears reasonable on a P/E basis, the recent negative EPS surprise warrants attention. Investors should monitor future earnings reports and management guidance closely to confirm the sustainability of growth.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Alibaba's most recent earnings report for the quarter ending June 2026 revealed an EPS of -0.16, missing the analyst estimate of -0.14 by 14.29%, which resulted in a 0.27% price decline. The prior quarter also saw a significant miss, with actual EPS of 0.62 compared to an estimate of 5.74, a surprise of -89.20%, leading to a 3.22% stock drop. These recent earnings results indicate a pattern of underperformance against analyst expectations. Investors should closely watch upcoming earnings calls for insights into the factors driving these misses and management's strategies to improve profitability and meet future estimates.
Key Risks
Alibaba faces significant risk from its current oversold technical condition, with the RSI at 16.44 and the stock trading well below its key moving averages. Geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny impacting Chinese technology companies remain a persistent overhang, potentially affecting future growth and investor sentiment. Also, recent earnings misses, particularly the significant EPS shortfall in the June 2026 quarter, raise concerns about the company's ability to meet analyst expectations consistently.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 16.44 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -2.86 |
| SMA 50 | 117.05 |
| SMA 200 | 134.75 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $117.05, 200-day: $134.75), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 16.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.16
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
BABA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$106.39
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$108.56
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$101.69
MAX LOSS
-4.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (16.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$111.71
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$117.03
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$122.35
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for BABA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in BABA in September 2016 would be worth about $10,770 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BABA today could grow to about $14,254 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $81,999 and a bear case around $2,478. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BABA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $125 for BABA by 2030 in the base case, from $109 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $41.37. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BABA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $64.68 | $112 | $196 |
| 2028 | $53.29 | $117 | $255 |
| 2029 | $46.31 | $121 | $315 |
| 2030 | $41.37 | $125 | $378 |
| 2031 | $37.61 | $130 | $447 |
| 2032 | $34.63 | $134 | $521 |
| 2033 | $32.19 | $139 | $601 |
| 2034 | $30.14 | $144 | $689 |
| 2035 | $28.40 | $149 | $785 |
| 2036 | $26.90 | $155 | $890 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using BABA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) stock a buy right now?
Alibaba (BABA) is currently rated a 'Buy' with a consensus score of 78. Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $188.67, suggesting a 73.8% upside from the current price of $108.56. The stock is technically oversold, but recent earnings misses warrant caution.
What is Alibaba's (BABA) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Alibaba's (BABA) stock price is projected to be $125.10 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $41.37, while the upside projection reaches $378.29. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Alibaba (BABA)?
The primary risks for Alibaba (BABA) include its oversold technical condition, ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny affecting Chinese tech firms, and recent earnings misses that raise concerns about consistent performance.
How does Alibaba's (BABA) valuation compare to its sector?
Alibaba's (BABA) P/E ratio of 24.56 is currently in line with the sector average of 24.56, suggesting its valuation is fair relative to its industry peers.
What is the analyst consensus for Alibaba (BABA) stock?
The consensus rating for Alibaba (BABA) stock is 'Buy', with 40 analysts covering the stock. The Wall Street score is 78 out of 100, with 8 analysts rating it 'Strong Buy' and 30 rating it 'Buy'.
What was Alibaba's (BABA) most recent earnings performance?
In its most recent report for the quarter ending June 2026, Alibaba (BABA) reported an EPS of -0.16, missing the analyst estimate of -0.14 by 14.29%. This contributed to a 0.27% decline in the stock price.
What is Alibaba's (BABA) dividend yield?
Alibaba (BABA) offers a dividend yield of approximately 0.97%, with a dividend rate of $1.05.