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As of October 11, 2026, Phillips 66 (PSX) trades at $278.18. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $278.18, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $264.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 69 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $247.31.
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Phillips 66 NYSE
$278.18
-3.420 (-1.21%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Phillips 66 (PSX) is currently trading at $278.18, a level that appears to fully price in its current fundamentals and near-term outlook. The company's recent earnings have shown strong beats, particularly in the quarter to March 2026, but forward revenue growth estimates for next year are projected to decline by 9.00%. While the company operates in the strong Energy sector, its current price action and analyst consensus suggest a period of consolidation rather than significant upward momentum. Despite a 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street and a median price target of $264.00, implying a -5.1% downside, PSX exhibits strong technical indicators with its price trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($247.31 and $187.62) and a bullish RSI status. However, significant insider selling, with total sales exceeding $67 million against only $1.3 million in purchases, presents a notable risk and suggests a lack of conviction from management at current levels. The company's profit margin stands at 4.66% and return on equity at 23.45%, which are solid but do not necessarily justify a premium valuation at this juncture.
PSX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$279.83
Day Range
$276.71 to $286.57
Prev Close
$281.60
Volume
2.84M
52-Week Range
$126.74 to $286.57
Market Cap
$111.00B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Energy)
Performance vs XLE
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-12% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
PSX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, PSX beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
PSX Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-5.10% Downside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$264.00
AI Technical Analysis
Phillips 66 (PSX) is exhibiting bullish momentum, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($247.31 and $187.62), indicating a positive trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.43, signaling bullish momentum without yet reaching overbought territory, and the MACD is positive at 7.473. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 2.84 million compared to the average of 2.36 million, suggesting sustained interest. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, while the current price of $278.18 is nearing its all-time highs. The chart structure suggests that the stock is in a strong uptrend, but the lack of significant upside from the median analyst target price of $264.00 warrants caution regarding further immediate gains. The current price is also above the 20-day EMA at $263.86, reinforcing the short-term bullish trend.
ProTips
- Given the significant insider selling totaling over $67 million, investors should closely monitor future insider transactions and management commentary for any changes in sentiment.
- Phillips 66's stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($247.31 and $187.62), indicating bullish momentum, but the median analyst target suggests limited upside from current levels.
- With a projected revenue growth decline for next year, consider the company's ability to maintain profitability and cash flow in a potentially less favorable market environment.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Significant Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $67 million worth of Phillips 66 stock against only $1.3 million in purchases, signaling a potential lack of confidence in future price appreciation at current levels.
Source: Insider Trading FilingsBearish
Projected Revenue Growth Slowdown
Forward revenue growth estimates for next year are projected to decline by 9.00%, which could impact future profitability and valuation multiples.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesNeutral
Median Analyst Target Suggests Limited Upside
The median analyst price target of $264.00 is below the current stock price of $278.18, indicating that the stock may be fully valued by the market.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusBullish
Strong Recent Earnings Performance
Phillips 66 has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 25.47% beat in the quarter to June 2026, demonstrating operational strength.
Source: Company Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Phillips 66 (PSX) suggests a period of consolidation, with the median analyst price target of $264.00 indicating a potential downside from the current $278.18. While the company has a history of strong earnings beats and operates within a generally favorable energy sector, the projected -9.00% revenue growth for next year and significant insider selling temper near-term bullish expectations. The stock's current technical strength, trading above key moving averages, provides some support, but the valuation appears fully priced. Potential upside catalysts could emerge from unexpected strength in refining margins or a positive shift in forward-looking revenue guidance, which could challenge the current analyst consensus. Conversely, a sharper-than-expected downturn in energy demand, increased regulatory scrutiny, or continued insider selling could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing the $200 level. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and management commentary for signs of a changing revenue trajectory.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 111.00B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.21 |
| EPS (TTM) | 17.50 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.80% |
| 52 Week High | 286.57 |
| 52 Week Low | 126.74 |
Phillips 66 (PSX) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a P/E ratio of 16.21, which is slightly below the sector median of 18.4, suggesting a potentially reasonable valuation relative to peers. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.74, also below the sector median of 2.5, indicating efficiency in generating revenue. Its return on equity is strong at 23.45%, surpassing the sector average of 14.2%, and its profit margin is 4.66%. However, forward-looking revenue growth estimates for next year project a decline of 9.00%, contrasting with a strong current year growth estimate of +23.00%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.63, which is in line with the sector average. While fundamentals are generally sound, the projected slowdown in revenue growth and significant insider selling raise questions about the sustainability of current valuation levels.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Phillips 66 (PSX) has demonstrated strong earnings performance in recent quarters, notably beating EPS estimates by 25.47% in the quarter to June 2026, with actual EPS at $9.41 against an estimate of $7.50, leading to a 1.47% price increase. The company also significantly surpassed expectations in the quarter to March 2026, with actual EPS of $0.49 versus an estimate of -$0.39, a 225.64% surprise. This consistent pattern of earnings beats suggests operational efficiency and effective cost management.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Phillips 66 (PSX) stems from significant insider selling, with over $67 million in sales against $1.3 million in purchases, signaling potential caution from management regarding future performance. Also, forward revenue growth estimates for next year are projected to decline by 9.00%, indicating potential headwinds in the energy market or company-specific challenges. The median analyst price target of $264.00 also suggests limited upside from the current price of $278.18, implying the stock may be fully valued.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 69.43 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 7.47 |
| SMA 50 | 247.31 |
| SMA 200 | 187.62 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($247.31) above the 200-day SMA ($187.62), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.06
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PSX? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
PSX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$275.40
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$278.18
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$260.69
MAX LOSS
-5.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (69.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$283.66
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$289.17
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$297.43
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PSX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PSX in October 2016 would be worth about $34,531 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PSX today could grow to about $26,209 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $111,074 and a bear case around $6,184. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PSX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $409 for PSX by 2030 in the base case, from $278 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $164. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PSX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $194 | $306 | $484 |
| 2028 | $177 | $337 | $643 |
| 2029 | $168 | $371 | $819 |
| 2030 | $164 | $409 | $1,019 |
| 2031 | $162 | $450 | $1,250 |
| 2032 | $162 | $496 | $1,518 |
| 2033 | $163 | $546 | $1,828 |
| 2034 | $165 | $601 | $2,188 |
| 2035 | $168 | $662 | $2,606 |
| 2036 | $172 | $729 | $3,090 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PSX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
PSX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.3M
6 Transactions
Sold
$67.1M
23 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2023 | GARLAND GREGORY C.
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 169.4K | $18.9M |
| Jun 9, 2022 | GARLAND GREGORY C.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 146.7K | $16.1M |
| Aug 11, 2023 | ROBERTS TIMOTHY D
Officer
|
Sell | 127.6K | $14.9M |
| Mar 11, 2021 | GARLAND GREGORY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 158.5K | $14.0M |
| Aug 12, 2026 | HARBISON RICHARD G
Officer
|
Sell | 52.1K | $11.7M |
| Feb 7, 2022 | GARLAND GREGORY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 126.3K | $11.2M |
| Dec 2, 2016 | ZIEMBA LAWRENCE MICHAEL
Officer
|
Sell | 101.9K | $8.7M |
| Mar 12, 2026 | MANDELL BRIAN
Officer
|
Sell | 42.8K | $7.3M |
| Aug 11, 2026 | MANDELL BRIAN
Officer
|
Sell | 33.3K | $7.2M |
| Jun 8, 2022 | ROBERTS TIMOTHY D
Officer
|
Sell | 59.1K | $6.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Phillips 66's stock price forecast for 2030?
Phillips 66's stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $408.98, with a downside scenario of $164.08 and an upside scenario of $1019.43. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Phillips 66 stock a buy right now?
Phillips 66 (PSX) currently holds a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts and a median price target of $264.00, which is below the current trading price of $278.18. Significant insider selling and projected revenue slowdown next year suggest caution, making it less of a clear buy at this level.
What was Phillips 66's most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter ending June 2026, Phillips 66 reported an EPS of $9.41, significantly beating the analyst estimate of $7.50 by 25.47%, and the stock saw a 1.47% price increase following the announcement.
How does Phillips 66's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Phillips 66's P/E ratio of 16.21 is below the Energy sector median of 18.4, and its price-to-sales ratio of 0.74 is well below the sector median of 2.5. Its return on equity of 23.45% also exceeds the sector average of 14.2%.
What are the main risks facing Phillips 66?
Key risks include substantial insider selling totaling over $67 million, a projected 9.00% decline in revenue growth for the next year, and a median analyst price target that suggests limited upside from current levels.
What is the outlook for Phillips 66's revenue growth?
While Phillips 66 is expected to achieve strong revenue growth of +23.00% for the current year, projections for next year indicate a slowdown with an estimated -9.00% growth. This suggests a potential shift in market dynamics or company performance.
Are there any significant insider transactions at Phillips 66?
Yes, Phillips 66 insiders have been net sellers, with total sales reaching $67.1 million compared to $1.3 million in purchases in recent filings. This heavy sell signal indicates a cautious sentiment from management.