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As of September 11, 2026, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) trades at $144.76. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $144.76, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $225.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 36 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $158.30.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)
AeroVironment, Inc. NASDAQ
$144.76
-2.310 (-1.57%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
AeroVironment (AVAV) is currently trading at $144.76, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($158.30 and $209.84), signaling a bearish trend. The company's recent earnings have shown mixed results, with a notable EPS beat of 136% in September 2026, but also a significant miss in July 2026. Despite these fluctuations, Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $225.0, implying a 55.4% upside potential. However, insider activity reveals a moderate sell signal, with $11.4 million in sales against zero purchases, raising concerns about management's short-term confidence.
AVAV Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$145.84
Day Range
$138.38 to $146.62
Prev Close
$147.07
Volume
102.9K
52-Week Range
$135.20 to $417.86
Market Cap
$7.47B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+493%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
AVAV Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, AVAV beat estimates 1 times. The stock rose 1 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
AVAV Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
AeroVironment's stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($158.30 and $209.84), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.67 is in bearish territory, suggesting weakening momentum. The MACD also remains negative, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key support levels are being tested, and with volume significantly below average, there is little immediate buying pressure to suggest a reversal. The chart structure points towards continued downward pressure unless key resistance levels are breached.
ProTips
- Given the moderate sell signal from insiders and bearish technicals, consider reducing exposure or implementing tighter stop-loss orders to manage downside risk.
- Monitor key resistance levels around the 50-day moving average ($158.30) and the 200-day moving average ($209.84) for signs of a potential trend reversal.
- The company's strong revenue growth is a positive, but the negative EPS and insider selling highlight the need for careful monitoring of profitability and management confidence.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $11.4 million worth of shares with no reported purchases, indicating a net seller position and potentially signaling a lack of short-term confidence.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($158.30 and $209.84), with a bearish RSI reading, suggesting continued downward pressure.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Revenue Growth
AeroVironment has reported exceptional revenue growth of 133.3%, significantly outpacing sector averages and indicating strong market demand for its products.
Source: Financial DataBullish
Positive Wall Street Price Target
The median analyst price target of $225.0 suggests a potential upside of 55.4% from the current price, indicating analyst optimism for future performance.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusBullish
Recent EPS Beat
The company reported a significant EPS beat of 136% in its latest earnings release (September 2026), demonstrating an ability to exceed analyst expectations.
Source: Earnings ReportMarket Outlook
AeroVironment's near-term outlook is challenged by its current technical weakness and insider selling pressure. The stock is trading below critical moving averages, and the RSI indicates bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further downside. While Wall Street's median price target of $225.0 implies significant upside, the current price action and insider sentiment do not support this optimism in the immediate future. The company's ability to regain upward momentum will depend on breaking through key resistance levels and a shift in insider sentiment. Looking ahead, the company's strong revenue growth and positive forward estimates offer a potential long-term tailwind. However, achieving consistent profitability and overcoming the current bearish technicals are paramount. Any positive catalysts, such as new contract wins or a significant improvement in earnings, could shift the narrative, but the current risk profile suggests caution is warranted until a clear uptrend is established.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 7.47B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -5.41 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 417.86 |
| 52 Week Low | 135.20 |
AeroVironment's valuation metrics are currently obscured by a negative EPS of -5.41, making traditional P/E ratio analysis impossible. The company's revenue growth has been strong, reported at 133.3%, significantly outpacing sector averages. However, the negative EPS suggests profitability challenges. While Wall Street revenue estimates for the current year project a 11.00% increase, the lack of positive earnings and the significant insider selling warrant caution regarding the company's fundamental health relative to its valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
AeroVironment's recent earnings reports have been volatile. The company reported a significant EPS beat of 136% in September 2026, with actual EPS of $0.59 against an estimate of $0.25, leading to a 4.45% price increase. However, the preceding quarter in July 2026 saw an EPS miss of -150% and a price drop of -2.57%. The company also posted a strong EPS beat in June 2026. This inconsistency in earnings performance, coupled with a recent moderate sell signal from insiders, suggests ongoing operational challenges despite some positive quarterly results.
Key Risks
AeroVironment faces significant downside risk due to its current technical positioning, trading well below key moving averages with bearish momentum indicators. The moderate sell signal from insiders, involving over $11.4 million in sales, further heightens concerns about near-term stock performance. While revenue growth is strong, the negative EPS and inconsistent profitability present fundamental risks that could challenge the stock's valuation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 35.67 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -5.70 |
| SMA 50 | 158.30 |
| SMA 200 | 209.84 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $158.30, 200-day: $209.84), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
AVAV Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$147.66
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$144.76
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$160.84
MAX LOSS
-8.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (35.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$140.27
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$132.89
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$125.51
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AVAV is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.95%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AVAV in September 2016 would be worth about $61,126 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AVAV today could grow to about $33,315 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $252,750 and a bear case around $4,391. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AVAV Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $234 for AVAV by 2030 in the base case, from $145 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $65.03. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AVAV's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $86.02 | $163 | $310 |
| 2028 | $74.41 | $184 | $456 |
| 2029 | $68.46 | $208 | $630 |
| 2030 | $65.03 | $234 | $844 |
| 2031 | $63.05 | $264 | $1,107 |
| 2032 | $62.02 | $298 | $1,432 |
| 2033 | $61.69 | $336 | $1,831 |
| 2034 | $61.89 | $379 | $2,322 |
| 2035 | $62.54 | $428 | $2,924 |
| 2036 | $63.57 | $482 | $3,659 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AVAV's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. AVAV is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AVAV Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$11.4M
23 Transactions
Insiders
18
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$497.0K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2021 | CONVER TIMOTHY E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 150.0K | $17.0M |
| Mar 19, 2021 | NAWABI WAHID
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.7K | $8.8M |
| Jul 16, 2025 | NAWABI WAHID
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 17.3K | $4.6M |
| Mar 24, 2025 | NAWABI WAHID
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 29.4K | $3.8M |
| Apr 5, 2021 | NAWABI WAHID
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 24.7K | $3.0M |
| Mar 6, 2019 | CONVER TIMOTHY E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 20.7K | $1.7M |
| Feb 22, 2019 | CONVER TIMOTHY E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 20.7K | $1.7M |
| Jul 5, 2024 | NAWABI WAHID
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 9.9K | $1.7M |
| Sep 16, 2021 | CONVER TIMOTHY E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 18.0K | $1.6M |
| Feb 7, 2019 | CONVER TIMOTHY E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 20.7K | $1.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is AeroVironment's current stock price and consensus rating?
AeroVironment (AVAV) is currently trading at $144.76. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Buy', with a consensus score of 20 out of 100, indicating a 'Sell' rating from our AI analysis.
What are the key technical indicators for AVAV stock?
AVAV's technical indicators are bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($158.30 and $209.84). The RSI is at 35.67, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is also negative.
What is the outlook for AeroVironment's revenue growth?
AeroVironment has demonstrated strong revenue growth, reported at 133.3%. Wall Street revenue estimates project an 11.00% increase for the current year and a 15.00% increase for next year.
Are there any significant insider transactions for AVAV stock?
Yes, insider activity shows a moderate sell signal, with $11.4 million in total sales and zero reported purchases. This indicates a net seller position among insiders.
What is the median analyst price target for AeroVironment?
The median analyst price target for AVAV is $225.0, suggesting a potential upside of 55.4% from the current price of $144.76.
What are the main risks facing AeroVironment?
Key risks include the stock's bearish technical trend, significant insider selling, and challenges in achieving consistent profitability despite strong revenue growth.
How does AeroVironment's performance compare to its sector averages?
AeroVironment's revenue growth of 133.3% significantly outpaces the sector average of 10.0%.
What is AVAV stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, AVAV's stock forecast for 2030 shows a base price projection of $234.26, with a downside projection of $65.03 and an upside projection of $843.91. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.