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As of September 9, 2026, Cummins Inc. (CMI) trades at $554.76. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $554.76, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $771.00 across 23 analysts. RSI at 23 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $627.53.
Cummins Inc (CMI)
Cummins Inc NYSE
$554.76
-6.790 (-1.21%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Cummins Inc. (CMI) is currently trading at $554.76, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($627.53 and $600.95), signaling considerable downward price pressure. The company's stock is exhibiting oversold technical conditions, with an RSI of 22.86, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce but indicating broader weakness. Despite this, Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $771.00, implying a 39% upside potential from current levels. However, a critical concern is the heavy insider selling, with over $56.8 million in dispositions versus only $332.1 thousand in purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management in the near term. This divergence between analyst sentiment and insider activity warrants caution.
CMI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$556.72
Day Range
$548.45 to $562.60
Prev Close
$561.55
Volume
1.09M
52-Week Range
$389.52 to $737.76
Market Cap
$76.37B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (13% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
CMI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CMI beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
CMI Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Cummins Inc. (CMI) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($627.53 and $600.95), with its current price of $554.76 well below the 50-day SMA of $627.53 and the 200-day SMA of $600.95. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 22.86, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting that the stock may be due for a short-term rebound. However, the MACD indicator is also negative, signaling bearish momentum. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the recent price action, but the current price action indicates significant overhead resistance from these moving averages. Volume has been slightly above average recently, but not to a degree that suggests a strong conviction reversal is imminent.
ProTips
- Given the heavy insider selling totaling over $56.8 million, investors should exercise caution and closely monitor future insider transactions for any signs of changing sentiment.
- The stock's oversold RSI of 22.86 suggests a potential for a short-term technical rebound, but the sustained weakness below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($627.53 and $600.95) indicates that the broader trend remains bearish.
- With a P/E ratio above the sector average, consider the valuation premium in light of the current bearish technicals and insider selling before initiating new positions.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $56.8 million worth of CMI stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $332.1 thousand, signaling a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The stock's RSI is at 22.86, indicating oversold conditions that, while potentially leading to a short-term bounce, reinforce the current bearish momentum below key moving averages.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Wall Street Buy Consensus and Price Target
Despite insider selling and technical weakness, 23 Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $771.00, suggesting potential upside if fundamental factors improve.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Recent Earnings Misses
Cummins Inc. recently missed EPS estimates in August 2026 and July 2026, raising concerns about earnings predictability and operational execution.
Source: Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
The outlook for Cummins Inc. (CMI) is cautious, primarily due to significant insider selling and bearish technical signals. The stock is trading well below its key moving averages, and its RSI is significantly oversold, suggesting that immediate upside may be limited despite potential for a short-term bounce. Wall Street's 'Buy' rating and median target of $771.00 contrast sharply with the heavy insider dispositions, creating uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in insider activity for clearer direction.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 76.37B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.88 |
| EPS (TTM) | 19.57 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
| 52 Week High | 737.76 |
| 52 Week Low | 389.52 |
Cummins Inc. (CMI) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a P/E ratio of 28.88, which is above the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potential valuation premium. Earnings per share (EPS) stand at $19.57, indicating profitability. The company's revenue growth is reported at 9.4%, slightly below the sector average of 10.0%. While the company is profitable, the current price action and insider selling suggest that the market may be questioning its future growth prospects or current valuation relative to its peers. Further analysis of its balance sheet and debt-to-equity ratio would be necessary to fully assess its financial health.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Cummins Inc. (CMI) has shown inconsistent earnings performance in its recent quarters. The most recent quarter (August 2026) reported an EPS of $6.73 against an estimate of $7.17, missing expectations by 6.14% and resulting in a 2.25% price decrease. Prior to that, the company missed EPS estimates significantly in July 2026, reporting a loss of $0.02 against an estimate of $0.04. While there were beats in the prior two quarters (May 2026 and February 2026), the recent miss and the prior large miss raise concerns about earnings predictability and execution.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Cummins Inc. (CMI) is the heavy insider selling, with over $56.8 million in dispositions, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock is trading significantly below its key moving averages and exhibits oversold technical conditions, suggesting potential for further downside or at least a lack of immediate upward momentum. The company's P/E ratio is also above the sector average, potentially indicating a stretched valuation in the current market environment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 22.86 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -22.87 |
| SMA 50 | 627.53 |
| SMA 200 | 600.95 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($627.53) above the 200-day SMA ($600.95), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 22.9 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.63
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.60
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.16
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
CMI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$565.86
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$554.76
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$589.96
MAX LOSS
-4.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (22.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$537.56
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$509.27
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$480.98
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for CMI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CMI in September 2016 would be worth about $48,074 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CMI today could grow to about $30,299 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $96,010 and a bear case around $9,562. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CMI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $864 for CMI by 2030 in the base case, from $555 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $417. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CMI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $430 | $620 | $893 |
| 2028 | $413 | $692 | $1,160 |
| 2029 | $411 | $774 | $1,455 |
| 2030 | $417 | $864 | $1,793 |
| 2031 | $427 | $966 | $2,183 |
| 2032 | $442 | $1,079 | $2,636 |
| 2033 | $459 | $1,205 | $3,164 |
| 2034 | $480 | $1,347 | $3,778 |
| 2035 | $504 | $1,505 | $4,493 |
| 2036 | $530 | $1,681 | $5,326 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CMI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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CMI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$332.1K
1 Transactions
Sold
$56.8M
27 Transactions
Insiders
30
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2022 | LINEBARGER NORMAN THOMAS
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 54.8K | $13.7M |
| Nov 10, 2022 | EMBREE TRACY A
Officer
|
Sell | 46.9K | $11.3M |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MILLER WILLIAM I
Director
|
Sell | 18.1K | $10.8M |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SATTERTHWAITE TONY L
Officer
|
Sell | 37.5K | $9.9M |
| Mar 31, 2022 | LINEBARGER NORMAN THOMAS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.5K | $7.8M |
| Aug 23, 2024 | SATTERTHWAITE LIVINGSTON LORD
Officer
|
Sell | 24.3K | $7.5M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | SMITH MARK ANDREW
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 13.1K | $6.2M |
| Nov 11, 2021 | BARNER SHARON R
Officer
|
Sell | 24.8K | $5.9M |
| Aug 13, 2025 | SMITH MARK ANDREW
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 12.5K | $5.0M |
| Feb 10, 2025 | SMITH MARK ANDREW
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 11.4K | $4.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the consensus rating for Cummins Inc. (CMI)?
The consensus rating for Cummins Inc. (CMI) is 'Sell', with a consensus score of 20 out of 100. This rating is primarily driven by heavy insider selling and oversold technical indicators.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Cummins Inc. (CMI)?
Wall Street analysts collectively rate Cummins Inc. (CMI) as a 'Buy', with a Wall Street score of 71 out of 100. This consensus is supported by 4 'Strong Buy' ratings, 11 'Buy' ratings, and 8 'Hold' ratings from 23 analysts.
What is the median analyst price target for Cummins Inc. (CMI)?
The median analyst price target for Cummins Inc. (CMI) is $771.00, with a range from $530 to $894. This implies an upside of 39.0% from the current price of $554.76.
Are insiders buying or selling Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock?
Insiders at Cummins Inc. (CMI) are heavily net sellers of the stock. Total insider sales amount to $56.8 million, while total purchases are only $332.1 thousand, indicating a strong disposition trend among insiders.
What are the recent earnings results for Cummins Inc. (CMI)?
Cummins Inc. (CMI) recently missed its EPS estimate in August 2026, reporting $6.73 against an expected $7.17, which led to a 2.25% price decrease. The company also reported a significant EPS miss in July 2026.
What is the long-term outlook for Cummins Inc. (CMI)?
The long-term outlook for Cummins Inc. (CMI) based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a base case price of $864.33 by 2030, with a downside projection of $416.77 and an upside projection of $1792.52. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
How does Cummins Inc. (CMI) compare to its sector averages?
Cummins Inc. (CMI) has a P/E ratio of 28.88, which is higher than the sector average of 25.5. Its reported revenue growth of 9.4% is slightly below the sector average of 10.0%.
What is CMI stock forecast for 2030?
The forecast for CMI stock in 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case price of $864.33. The downside scenario is $416.77 and the upside scenario is $1792.52. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes.