Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

At $550.96 the stock sits 6.03% above its 50-day average but 5.98% below its 200-day average, leaving the trend mixed. The valuation is the main reason the stock draws attention. At a trailing P/E of 17.31, it trades at a steep discount to the Industrials median of 34.0, and its price-to-sales ratio of 1.80 compares with a sector median of 4.0. Investors are weighing that discount against slower revenue growth and a long stretch of price weakness over the past year.

The stock has risen 4.87% over the past week and 13.60% over the past month, but it is still down 2.78% over the past year. The strongest single move came after the October 20, 2026 report, when the stock rose 4.57% in the first session following an adjusted EPS of $7.89 against an estimate of $7.18. That beat of 9.89% was the sixth beat in the last seven reports, with only the April 22, 2025 report a miss, by 46.96%.

At a trailing P/E of 17.31, the stock trades 49.1% below the Industrials median of 34.0. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.80 is 55.0% below the sector median of 4.0. Trailing GAAP earnings per share of $31.82 and a return on equity of 26.07%, above the sector median of 17.8%, help explain why the discount stands out. Investors pay less for each dollar of sales and earnings than they do for most of the sector.

Revenue grew 5.07% in the latest quarter compared with a year earlier, which trails the sector median of 11.7% by 6.6 percentage points. Analysts expect revenue to grow 5.0% this fiscal year to $44.1B, which is slower than the sector. The stock sits above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA is 11.33% below the 200-day SMA, so the trend is mixed rather than clearly up.

Of the 26 analysts with a current rating, 16 rate the stock buy or strong buy, 9 hold it and 1 sells it. Three months ago 13 of 23 ratings were buy. The median 12-month target of $625.00 sits 13.4% above the price, while the lowest target of $430.00 is below it. Insiders sold $35.5M of stock across 26 sales over the last 18 months and made no open-market purchases. Those sales may have been planned in advance or made to cover taxes on vesting shares, so they carry less weight than purchases would.

Our base case is that the stock stays range-bound while it works through the gap between its 200-day average and its recent rally. The stock needs to reclaim the 200-day SMA at $586.03 to show that the longer-term trend is repairing. Until then, the share price is likely to trade between the 20-day EMA and the 200-day SMA as investors weigh the valuation discount against slower revenue growth. The main upside case rests on earnings. Analysts expect EPS to grow 13.1% this fiscal year to $29.80, and the median 12-month target of $625.00 implies further upside. A string of beats, including the 9.89% beat reported on October 20, 2026, would support that view. The main downside case is a break below the 50-day SMA at $519.61, which would bring the 52-week low of $470.06 back into focus. Analysts' expectations for next year are flat, with EPS expected to grow only 0.5% to $29.94, so the upside case depends on the current year's results holding up.

Support sits at three levels below the price. The nearest is the 20-day EMA at $536.37, which the stock has recently been trading above. Below that is the 50-day SMA at $519.61, a level that the stock has held over the past several weeks. The 52-week low of $470.06 is the deepest support and marks the lowest trading level in the past year. Resistance starts with the 200-day SMA at $586.03, the nearest level above the price and the level the stock must reclaim to repair its longer-term trend. Above that, the 52-week high of $774.00 is the second level and the top of the stock's trading range over the past year.