As of September 28, 2026, Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) trades at ¥110.13. The nearest technical resistance sits at ¥112.62; there is no analyst coverage. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of ¥112.33.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY)
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The Australian Dollar Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) is currently trading at 110.13, reflecting a bearish sentiment driven by contrasting monetary policies and economic outlooks. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has ended its negative interest rate policy and yield-curve control, signaling a move towards normalization and potentially higher rates. This contrasts with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which faces a more challenging domestic economic environment, including slowing growth and persistent inflation concerns that may limit its ability to aggressively hike rates.
Geopolitical tensions and global macro trends, such as shifts in commodity prices and global growth expectations, also serve a significant role in shaping the AUD/JPY dynamic. The current price action below key technical levels suggests that the bearish momentum may continue in the near term, influenced by these fundamental drivers.
AUD/JPY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
AUD/JPY Analysis
The AUD/JPY is currently trading below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 112.33 and its 200-day SMA of 112.62, indicating a bearish trend. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 111.20 also acts as resistance, reinforcing the downward pressure.
Nearest support is seen at the current price level, with significant resistance found at the 50-day SMA (112.33) and the 200-day SMA (112.62). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49.08, which is in neutral territory but suggests a lack of strong buying conviction. The Stochastic indicator is at 9.32, indicating oversold conditions, which could precede a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish.
- Monitor upcoming inflation and employment data from both Australia and Japan closely.
- Pay attention to any forward guidance from the RBA and BOJ regarding future interest rate decisions.
- Watch for shifts in global risk sentiment, which can impact commodity currencies like the AUD.
The outlook for AUD/JPY over the next 6-12 months is cautiously bearish. The divergence in monetary policy, with the BOJ normalizing and the RBA facing domestic constraints, is expected to persist. This fundamental backdrop suggests continued pressure on the Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
Key levels to watch include the 50-day SMA at 112.33 and the 200-day SMA at 112.62, which are expected to act as significant resistance. A sustained break below the current price levels could lead to further downside towards the 103.02 level projected by long-range simulations. A significant shift in either central bank's policy stance or a major geopolitical event could alter this outlook.
Market Correlations
How this forex pair moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
How does any other asset move with AUD/JPY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Key Statistics
| AUD/JPY is analysed on price action, rate differentials and macro flows: 50-day average ¥112.33, 200-day average ¥112.62, RSI 49. The trade plan below is built on these levels. | |
| 52 Week High | 114.96 |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Low | 105.21 |
The divergence in central bank policy between Japan and Australia is a key driver for the AUD/JPY pair. The Bank of Japan's recent move away from negative interest rates and yield-curve control signals a tightening bias, which typically supports the Yen. This policy shift is based on signs of sustainable inflation and wage growth in Japan.
Conversely, Australia's economic performance presents a mixed picture. While inflation remains a concern, slowing domestic growth and potential headwinds from global demand could constrain the Reserve Bank of Australia's aggressive policy tightening options. This policy divergence creates a fundamental basis for Yen strength against the Australian Dollar.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Recent economic releases from Australia have indicated a slowdown in key sectors, impacting the outlook for the Australian Dollar. Inflationary pressures persist, but the pace of economic activity may limit the RBA's room for further significant rate hikes. Employment data will be closely watched for signs of labor market resilience or deterioration.
In Japan, recent data has shown some signs of economic recovery, supporting the BOJ's decision to normalize monetary policy. Continued positive inflation and wage growth figures would further solidify the case for higher Japanese interest rates, providing underlying support for the Yen.
Key Risks
A primary risk to this bearish outlook is a sudden shift in RBA policy towards more aggressive tightening, perhaps driven by unexpectedly high inflation prints. Geopolitical events that disrupt global trade or commodity markets could also impact AUD/JPY, potentially leading to increased volatility.
Intervention by Japanese authorities to curb excessive Yen weakness, though less likely given recent policy shifts, remains a tail risk. Unexpectedly strong Australian economic data could also challenge the current bearish thesis.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 49.08 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.45 |
| SMA 50 | 112.33 |
| SMA 200 | 112.62 |
AUD/JPY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AUD/JPY in September 2016 would be worth about $14,247 today, compared with about $35,605 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AUD/JPY today could grow to about $16,382 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $24,877 and a bear case around $10,788. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AUD/JPY Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $134 for AUD/JPY by 2030 in the base case, from $110 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $103. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AUD/JPY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $101 | $116 | $132 |
| 2028 | $101 | $122 | $147 |
| 2029 | $102 | $128 | $161 |
| 2030 | $103 | $134 | $175 |
| 2031 | $105 | $141 | $189 |
| 2032 | $107 | $148 | $205 |
| 2033 | $110 | $156 | $221 |
| 2034 | $112 | $163 | $238 |
| 2035 | $116 | $172 | $255 |
| 2036 | $119 | $180 | $274 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AUD/JPY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.