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01

The short version

Where AUD/JPY stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.

AUD/JPY at a glance

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY): Hold, 55/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages (¥111.07 and ¥112.52).
  • Volatility Daily moves average 0.35% (30-day standard deviation).

Figures as of October 16, 2026.

CleaRank Financial AI

The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) exchange rate is currently trading at 110.01 in October 2026.

The pair has shown a lack of decisive direction, hovering below its 20-day exponential moving average and 50-day simple moving average. This positioning suggests a neutral to slightly cautious sentiment, with traders awaiting clearer signals from central bank policy divergence and macroeconomic trends. Recent price action indicates that the AUD/JPY has struggled to break above key technical resistance levels. The Bank of Japan's recent shift away from negative interest rates and yield-curve control introduces a new dynamic, potentially supporting the Yen. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy path will be critical in determining the near-term trajectory of the Australian Dollar.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from AUD/JPY's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.

02

Price and trading

The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.

2.0

Trend checks

1/4
  • Price above its 50-day average ›
    The price of ¥110.01 is 1.0% below the 50-day simple moving average of ¥111.07.
  • Price above its 200-day average ›
    The price is 2.2% below the 200-day simple moving average of ¥112.52.
  • 50-day average above the 200-day ›
    The 50-day average (¥111.07) is 1.3% below the 200-day average (¥112.52), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.
  • In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
    The price sits at 71% of its 52-week range, between ¥97.61 and ¥114.96.

AUD/JPY share price

Pick a period: each tab shows how far AUD/JPY has moved over it, to the last close.

Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
Start ¥97.52 Oct 16, 2025
Latest close ¥110.01 Oct 16, 2026
High ¥114.84 Jun 2, 2026
Low ¥97.52 Oct 16, 2025

Today's trading

Where AUD/JPY sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.

Day range 0.72% wide
¥110.01
¥109.28 ¥110.06
52-week range 71% of the way up
¥110.01
¥97.61 ¥114.96
Open
¥109.40
Previous close
¥109.39
03

Key levels

The figures the trade plan is built on.

Key levels

The averages and the year's range that AUD/JPY's trade plan is built on.

Price
¥110.01
50-day average
¥111.07
price -0.95%
200-day average
¥112.52
price -2.23%
14-day RSI
44.9
sellers ahead
52w low ¥97.61 200-day ¥112.52 50-day ¥111.07 Price ¥110.01 52w high ¥114.96

Short-term trend: AUD/JPY is below its 50-day average of ¥111.07.

Long-term trend: It is below its 200-day average of ¥112.52.

52-week range: ¥97.61 to ¥114.96; the price sits 71% of the way up.

What the numbers say

CleaRank Financial AI's reading of AUD/JPY's drivers and risks.

The big picture

Central bank policy divergence remains a primary driver for the AUD/JPY.

The Bank of Japan's decision to end negative interest rates and yield-curve control marks a significant policy shift, potentially providing underlying support for the Yen. This move signals a normalization of monetary policy, although the pace of future rate hikes remains a key focus for market participants. Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decisions and forward guidance will influence the Australian Dollar's strength. Any indications of a more hawkish stance from the RBA could provide upward pressure on AUD/JPY, while a dovish outlook might weigh on the pair. Macroeconomic data releases from both Australia and Japan, including inflation and employment figures, will be closely watched for further policy clues.

Macro drivers
Recent economic releases for Australia have shown mixed inflation and employment trends, influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy considerations. For Japan, the impact of the Bank of Japan's policy normalization on domestic demand and inflation is under scrutiny. These macroeconomic indicators are key for shaping the interest rate differential between the two economies, thereby impacting the AUD/JPY. Traders are assessing how these economic developments will translate into future monetary policy decisions. A persistent inflation differential or diverging growth outlooks could lead to increased volatility in the AUD/JPY cross.
Key risks
A significant risk to the current outlook is a policy misstep by either the RBA or the BoJ. An unexpected shift in forward guidance or a surprise rate hike/cut could trigger sharp movements in AUD/JPY. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those affecting global trade and commodity prices, also pose a risk to the Australian Dollar. Also, a sudden escalation of risk aversion in global markets could lead to a flight to safety, benefiting the Japanese Yen and putting downward pressure on AUD/JPY. Intervention by Japanese authorities to manage excessive Yen weakness or strength, though less likely, remains a tail risk.
04

AI analysis and technicals

CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.

4.0

Momentum checks

1/3
  • RSI not overbought or oversold ›
    The 14-day RSI is 44.9, in neutral territory.
  • RSI above 50 ›
    An RSI of 44.9 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.
  • MACD line above zero ›
    The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.

CleaRank AI analysis of AUD/JPY

The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.

Key trend level
¥112.52
+2.29% above price · the 200-day moving average, a technical level
AI analyst consensus
55/100
Hold
What the AI sees
The AUD/JPY pair is currently encountering resistance at its 50-day simple moving average of 111.07. The price is also trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, which sits at 110.29, indicating short-term weakness. The 200-day simple moving average at 112.52 represents a longer-term resistance level. The 14-day RSI is at 44.93, reflecting neutral momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -75.81, suggesting a move towards oversold territory but not yet confirming a reversal. The Stochastic indicator is at 54.48, also indicating a neutral stance without strong overbought or oversold signals.
Market outlook
The outlook for AUD/JPY over the next 6 to 12 months is cautiously neutral, with potential for volatility driven by central bank policy divergence. Key levels to watch include resistance at the 50-day SMA (111.07) and the 200-day SMA (112.52). A sustained break above these levels, supported by a more hawkish RBA stance or weakening Japanese economic data, could shift the outlook to bullish. Conversely, a return to risk aversion or a more dovish RBA could see the pair test lower support levels, potentially revisiting the 20-day EMA at 110.29.

Technical indicators

Momentum and trend for AUD/JPY, from its daily closes.

Technical rating Bearish 0 of 4 signals bullish
  • RSI Neutral
  • SMA cross Bearish
  • Price vs SMA Bearish
  • MACD Bearish
Momentum Neutral
44.914-day RSI
Oversold <30 Neutral Overbought >70
MACD (12, 26) -0.24 Bearish
Trend Death cross
-1.0%price against the 50-day average
200-day ¥112.52 50-day ¥111.07 Price ¥110.01
Price against the 200-day -2.2% Bearish

As of October 16, 2026, with AUD/JPY at ¥110.01, its 14-day RSI is 44.9 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is ¥111.07 and its 200-day is ¥112.52.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

What AUD/JPY moves with

Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.

-1 0 +1
S&P 500 (SPY) +0.58 Moderate
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.57 Moderate
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.28 Weak
Gold (XAU) +0.16 Weak

As of October 16, 2026, AUD/JPY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.58 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.57 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.28 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.16 with gold (XAU).

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05

A trade plan, if you want one

Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.

AUD/JPY trade plan

Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.

Your bias
Risk per trade 2%
Conservative Aggressive
Portfolio value
¥
Position size: Enter portfolio size →

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Conservative
¥108.91
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
¥110.01
At current price
Enter now if confident

Risk management

Stop loss
¥105.64
Max loss
-3.0%
Volatility-adjusted stop Set from the RSI (44.9) and recent volatility.

Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Target 1
¥112.17
+3% (Conservative) +2.0% (Aggressive)
Target 2
¥114.35
+5% (Conservative) +4.0% (Aggressive)
Target 3
¥117.62
+8% (Conservative) +6.9% (Aggressive)

With leverage, losses on AUD/JPY can exceed the deposit, and news can gap the price through these levels. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Risk profile

How much AUD/JPY tends to move, against the market and on its own.

Daily volatility
0.35%
30-day standard deviation
52-week range
¥110.01
¥97.61 71% of the way up ¥114.96

Compare AUD/JPY

Put AUD/JPY side by side with other forex pairs and benchmarks.

06

The long record

AUD/JPY's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.

6.0

Track record checks

1/2
  • Average daily move under 2% ›
    The price has moved 0.35% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).
  • Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
    $10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $13,802, against $36,340 in the S&P 500 (SPY).

Growth of $10,000

What $10,000 put into AUD/JPY in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.

AUD/JPY today
$13,802
from $10,000 in October 2016
S&P 500 today
$36,340
the same $10,000 in SPY
Behind the index by
$22,538
0.4x the index result
Total change
+38%
1.4x the starting amount
20182020202220242026
AUD/JPY S&P 500 (SPY)

Against the market: AUD/JPY trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $13,802 against $36,340.

A $10,000 investment in AUD/JPY in October 2016 would be worth about $13,802 today, compared with about $36,340 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.

Seasonal patterns

Which calendar months have been kind to AUD/JPY, and which have not.

Jan7/10 upFeb6/10 upMar4/10 upApr7/10 upMay7/10 upJun6/10 upJul6/10 upAug3/10 upSep7/10 upOct6/9 upNov5/10 upDec7/10 up

Strongest month, June: an average of +1.12%, up in 6 of 10 years.

Weakest month, March: an average of -0.91%, up in 4 of 10 years.

This month, October: has averaged +0.85%, up in 6 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.

Over the last 10 years, AUD/JPY's strongest calendar month has been June (average +1.12%, up in 6 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -0.91%, up in 4 of 10 years).

Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices.

07

Long-term scenarios

Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.

Monte Carlo projection

Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in AUD/JPY, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.

Downside, 2036
$6,594
10th percentile
Base case, 2036
$10,000
median path
Upside, 2036
$15,165
90th percentile
202620282030203220342036
Upside (90th) Base case (median) Downside (10th) 10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AUD/JPY today could grow to about $10,000 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $15,165 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $6,594. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

AUD/JPY 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)

The same simulation in share prices, year by year.

Price today
¥110
Base case, 2030
¥110
1.0x over 4 years
Range, 2030
¥84.54 to ¥143
10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near ¥110 for AUD/JPY by 2030 in the base case, from ¥110 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near ¥84.54. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AUD/JPY's historical return distribution, not price targets.

AUD/JPY simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile range base today
2027 ¥96.43 ¥110 ¥125
2028 ¥91.31 ¥110 ¥133
2029 ¥87.57 ¥110 ¥138
2030 ¥84.54 ¥110 ¥143
2031 ¥81.95 ¥110 ¥148

Method: a lognormal simulation of AUD/JPY's own volatility with no trend assumed, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

08

Questions people ask

Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the outlook for AUD/JPY in October 2026?
In October 2026, AUD/JPY is trading at 110.01, facing resistance at its 50-day SMA of 111.07.
What are the key technical levels for AUD/JPY?
Key technical levels for AUD/JPY include resistance at the 50-day SMA (111.07) and the 200-day SMA (112.52). Support is not clearly defined by the current SMAs, but the 20-day EMA at 110.29 is acting as immediate resistance.
What is the long-term projection for AUD/JPY?
According to Monte Carlo simulations, the median projection for AUD/JPY in 2030 is 110.01, with a downside price of 84.54 and an upside price of 143.15. These are statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets.
What is the current momentum of AUD/JPY?
The current momentum for AUD/JPY is neutral. The 14-day RSI is at 44.93, and the Stochastic indicator is at 54.48, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
What are AUD/JPY's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, June has been AUD/JPY's strongest month on average (+1.12%, rising in 6 of 10 years) and March its weakest (-0.91%, rising in 4 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does AUD/JPY move with the stock market?
Over the past year AUD/JPY's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.58). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.57; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.28; Gold (XAU): +0.16. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in AUD/JPY be worth today?
$10,000 put into AUD/JPY in October 2016 would be worth about $13,802 today, against about $36,340 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
How volatile is AUD/JPY?
AUD/JPY's daily price moves average 0.35% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between ¥97.61 and ¥114.96.

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor (CTA), or financial regulatory body. The commodity and forex analysis presented for AUD/JPY is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an offer to trade any commodity, currency, or derivative instrument. Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. Prices are influenced by geopolitical events, central bank policy, supply chain disruptions, and macroeconomic factors that can cause rapid, unpredictable price movements. All analysis is AI-generated based on historical price data and technical indicators which may not predict future market conditions. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed. You should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Consult a qualified financial advisor or commodity trading advisor before trading. Analysis generated on October 17, 2026.

Disclaimer:

Engaging in financial markets carries significant risk of total capital loss. Markets are volatile, unpredictable, and past success does not guarantee future results. Never invest funds you cannot afford to lose. CleaRank does not offer financial, investment, or advisory services. We provide no recommendations, endorsements, or guarantees regarding market outcomes. You alone are responsible for your decisions.

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