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As of September 27, 2026, Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen (CAD/JPY) trades at ¥111.34. CleaRank's model target is ¥114.59, derived from technical levels rather than analyst coverage. RSI at 54 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of ¥113.29.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen (CAD/JPY)
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
¥111.34
0.1461 (0.13%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
The Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen (CAD/JPY) pair is currently trading at 111.34, below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 113.29 and its 200-day SMA of 114.59. This positioning suggests a neutral to slightly bearish technical bias in the short to medium term. The pair's movement is influenced by diverging central bank policies, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintaining a hawkish stance relative to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has recently exited negative interest rates. Geopolitical developments and global economic trends also serve a significant role in shaping currency valuations.
CAD/JPY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
¥111.19
Day Range
¥111.16 to ¥111.42
Prev Close
¥111.19
52-Week Range
¥110.04 to ¥117.49
CAD/JPY Analysis
CleaRank AI Target
+2.92% Upside
Our model estimate (not an analyst consensus)
¥114.59
AI Technical Analysis
At 54.05, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for CAD/JPY indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The pair is trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 111.90, its 50-day SMA of 113.29, and its 200-day SMA of 114.59. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -0.45, suggesting a slight bearish undertone. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -78.84, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory on this oscillator, which could signal a potential short-term bounce. Key resistance levels are found at the 50-day SMA (113.29) and the 200-day SMA (114.59), while immediate support is near the current price level.
ProTips
- Monitor Bank of Canada communications closely for any shifts in interest rate policy.
- Track commodity price movements, particularly oil, as they significantly influence the Canadian Dollar.
- Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could impact global risk sentiment and currency flows.
Market Outlook
The outlook for CAD/JPY over the next 6-12 months is cautiously neutral, with potential for upside if the Bank of Canada maintains its hawkish stance and commodity prices remain stable. Key resistance lies at the 50-day SMA of 113.29 and the 200-day SMA of 114.59. A break above these levels, supported by positive economic data and continued interest rate differentials, could propel the pair towards higher targets. Conversely, a weakening Canadian economy or a significant shift in global risk appetite could see the pair retest support levels near 110.00.
Market Correlations
How this forex pair moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.24
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.11
Weak correlation
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How does any other asset move with CAD/JPY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| CAD/JPY is analysed on price action, rate differentials and macro flows: 50-day average ¥113.29, 200-day average ¥114.59, RSI 54. The trade plan below is built on these levels. | |
| 52 Week High | 117.49 |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Low | 110.04 |
The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan remains a key driver for CAD/JPY. The BoC's higher interest rate environment, driven by inflation concerns and a strong domestic economy, typically supports the Canadian Dollar. Conversely, the Bank of Japan's recent policy normalization, while a significant shift, still leaves Japanese interest rates at lower levels compared to many developed economies. This differential is a fundamental support for CAD strength against the JPY. However, global economic slowdown fears and commodity price fluctuations can introduce volatility.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Recent economic releases from Canada have shown resilience in employment figures and inflation data, supporting the Bank of Canada's policy outlook. For Japan, recent inflation prints have been closely watched following the end of negative interest rates, with markets assessing the sustainability of price pressures and the BoJ's future rate hike trajectory. These macroeconomic indicators directly influence the interest rate differential and, consequently, the CAD/JPY exchange rate.
Key Risks
A significant risk to the current outlook is a sudden shift in the Bank of Canada's monetary policy towards easing, perhaps triggered by a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or a significant drop in commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting global energy markets, could also introduce sharp volatility into the Canadian Dollar. Also, any unexpected hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan could strengthen the Yen.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 54.05 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.45 |
| SMA 50 | 113.29 |
| SMA 200 | 114.59 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: ¥113.29, 200-day: ¥114.59), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
CAD/JPY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
¥110.22
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
¥111.34
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
¥106.92
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (54.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
¥113.53
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
¥115.74
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
¥119.04
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Commodity & Forex Risk Disclaimer
Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. This AI-generated analysis of CAD/JPY assumes standard market conditions and does not account for sudden geopolitical events, central bank decisions, or supply disruptions which can invalidate technical levels instantly. This is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CAD/JPY in September 2016 would be worth about $14,611 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CAD/JPY today could grow to about $16,592 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $24,387 and a bear case around $11,289. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CAD/JPY Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $136 for CAD/JPY by 2030 in the base case, from $111 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $107. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CAD/JPY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $104 | $117 | $132 |
| 2028 | $104 | $123 | $146 |
| 2029 | $105 | $130 | $160 |
| 2030 | $107 | $136 | $174 |
| 2031 | $109 | $143 | $188 |
| 2032 | $112 | $151 | $203 |
| 2033 | $115 | $159 | $219 |
| 2034 | $118 | $167 | $236 |
| 2035 | $122 | $176 | $253 |
| 2036 | $126 | $185 | $272 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CAD/JPY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key technical levels for CAD/JPY in September 2026?
In September 2026, CAD/JPY is trading below its 50-day SMA of 113.29 and its 200-day SMA of 114.59, which act as resistance. The RSI is at 54.05, indicating neutral momentum.
How does the Bank of Canada's policy affect CAD/JPY?
The Bank of Canada's relatively higher interest rate policy compared to Japan's provides fundamental support for the Canadian Dollar, potentially driving CAD/JPY higher.
What is the outlook for CAD/JPY based on central bank divergence?
The divergence between the Bank of Canada's hawkish stance and the Bank of Japan's recent policy normalization suggests continued support for CAD against JPY, though the pace of appreciation may be moderated by global economic conditions.
What are the main risks facing the CAD/JPY pair?
Key risks include a dovish pivot by the Bank of Canada, a sharp decline in commodity prices, or unexpected geopolitical events that could impact global risk sentiment and currency flows.
What is the long-term projection for CAD/JPY?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the median projection for CAD/JPY in 2030 is 136.33, with a downside price of 106.86 and an upside price of 173.93. These are statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.
How is the current price of CAD/JPY positioned relative to its moving averages?
CAD/JPY is currently trading at 111.34, which is below its 20-day EMA (111.90), 50-day SMA (113.29), and 200-day SMA (114.59), indicating bearish short-term technical pressure.
What does the RSI reading of 54.05 suggest for CAD/JPY?
An RSI at 54.1 suggests neutral momentum for CAD/JPY, indicating that the pair is neither in overbought nor oversold territory and lacks strong directional conviction at this time.