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As of September 28, 2026, Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen (CHF/JPY) trades at ¥189.73. CleaRank's model target is ¥193.73, derived from technical levels rather than analyst coverage. RSI at 57 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of ¥193.73.
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen (CHF/JPY)
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
¥189.73
-0.0523 (-0.03%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
The Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen (CHF/JPY) is currently trading at 189.73, below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 193.73 and its 200-day SMA of 199.13. This positioning suggests a bearish technical bias in the short to medium term. The Bank of Japan's recent decision to end negative interest rates and yield-curve control marks a significant shift in its monetary policy, potentially offering underlying support to the Japanese Yen against the Swiss Franc. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a more stable policy stance, but the divergence in central bank direction is a key driver for this currency pair.
CHF/JPY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
¥189.77
Day Range
¥189.53 to ¥190.30
Prev Close
¥189.79
52-Week Range
¥186.73 to ¥204.43
CHF/JPY Analysis
CleaRank AI Target
+2.11% Upside
Our model estimate (not an analyst consensus)
¥193.73
AI Technical Analysis
Momentum has shifted for CHF/JPY: the price has moved below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 190.88. The pair is also trading below both the 50-day SMA (193.73) and the 200-day SMA (199.13), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.38, which is classified as neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -51.88 indicates some downward pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator at 32.29 also points to a lack of strong bullish momentum.
ProTips
- Monitor BOJ and SNB policy statements closely for shifts in interest rate expectations.
- Watch for breaks of key technical levels (193.73, 199.13) to confirm trend direction.
- Consider the impact of global risk sentiment on safe-haven flows into CHF and JPY.
Market Outlook
The outlook for CHF/JPY over the next 6-12 months is cautiously bearish, with the pair facing headwinds as it trades below key moving averages. The Bank of Japan's policy normalization is expected to provide underlying support for the Yen, potentially pushing the pair lower if the trend continues. Key resistance levels to watch are the 50-day SMA at 193.73 and the 200-day SMA at 199.13. A sustained break below the current price could target lower levels, while a decisive move above these SMAs would signal a shift in momentum. The SNB's policy decisions and global economic conditions will be critical factors in shaping this outlook.
Market Correlations
How this forex pair moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
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How does any other asset move with CHF/JPY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| CHF/JPY is analysed on price action, rate differentials and macro flows: 50-day average ¥193.73, 200-day average ¥199.13, RSI 57. The trade plan below is built on these levels. | |
| 52 Week High | 204.43 |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Low | 186.73 |
The divergence in central bank policy between Switzerland and Japan is a primary driver for CHF/JPY. The Bank of Japan's move away from negative interest rates signals a tightening cycle, which typically supports a currency. This contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's more measured approach. Investors are closely watching for further signals from both central banks regarding future rate hikes and quantitative tightening. The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by global inflation concerns and varying growth trajectories, adds complexity to the outlook for both currencies.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Recent economic releases from Switzerland and Japan are influencing the CHF/JPY pair. Inflation data from Switzerland has shown some moderation, while Japanese economic indicators reflect the impact of the BOJ's policy normalization. Employment figures in both countries remain a key focus for central banks, as they assess the underlying strength of their respective economies. These data points provide context for the SNB's and BOJ's forward guidance on monetary policy.
Key Risks
The primary risks for CHF/JPY include unexpected policy shifts from either the SNB or the BOJ, which could rapidly alter the interest rate differential. Geopolitical events impacting global risk sentiment could also lead to volatility, potentially driving safe-haven flows into the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen depending on the nature of the shock. Also, significant deviations in economic data from forecasts could trigger sharp price movements.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 57.38 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.88 |
| SMA 50 | 193.73 |
| SMA 200 | 199.13 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: ¥193.73, 200-day: ¥199.13), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
CHF/JPY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
¥187.84
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
¥189.73
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
¥182.20
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (57.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
¥193.47
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
¥197.23
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
¥202.86
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Commodity & Forex Risk Disclaimer
Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. This AI-generated analysis of CHF/JPY assumes standard market conditions and does not account for sudden geopolitical events, central bank decisions, or supply disruptions which can invalidate technical levels instantly. This is not financial advice. Generated on September 28, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CHF/JPY in September 2016 would be worth about $18,307 today, compared with about $35,605 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CHF/JPY today could grow to about $18,557 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $25,181 and a bear case around $13,676. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CHF/JPY Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $243 for CHF/JPY by 2030 in the base case, from $190 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $200. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CHF/JPY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $183 | $202 | $222 |
| 2028 | $187 | $215 | $246 |
| 2029 | $193 | $228 | $270 |
| 2030 | $200 | $243 | $295 |
| 2031 | $208 | $258 | $321 |
| 2032 | $217 | $275 | $348 |
| 2033 | $227 | $292 | $378 |
| 2034 | $237 | $311 | $409 |
| 2035 | $248 | $331 | $442 |
| 2036 | $259 | $352 | $478 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CHF/JPY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the outlook for CHF/JPY in September 2026?
In September 2026, CHF/JPY is trading at 189.73, below its key moving averages. The outlook is influenced by the Bank of Japan's policy normalization and the Swiss National Bank's stance, with technicals suggesting a bearish bias below 193.73.
How does the Bank of Japan's policy affect CHF/JPY?
The Bank of Japan's end to negative interest rates and yield-curve control supports the Japanese Yen. This tightening divergence against the Swiss National Bank's policy provides a fundamental tailwind for the Yen in the CHF/JPY pair.
What are the key technical support and resistance levels for CHF/JPY?
Key technical resistance is observed at the 50-day SMA of 193.73 and the 200-day SMA of 199.13. The current price of 189.73 is trading below these levels, indicating downward pressure.
What are the main risks facing the CHF/JPY currency pair?
The main risks include sudden policy changes from the SNB or BOJ, geopolitical shocks that affect safe-haven demand, and significant economic data surprises that could alter the interest rate outlook.
How does the Swiss Franc compare to the Japanese Yen in terms of safe-haven status?
Both the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen are traditionally considered safe-haven currencies. Their relative strength against each other often depends on global risk sentiment and specific central bank policies.
What is the long-term projection for CHF/JPY based on simulations?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations for 2030, the base price projection for CHF/JPY is 242.97, with a downside price of 200.32 and an upside price of 294.7. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.
Why is the RSI status for CHF/JPY currently neutral?
The neutral RSI status at 57.38 indicates that the pair is not exhibiting strong overbought or oversold momentum. This suggests a period of consolidation or indecision in the market.