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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)

US Dollar / Swiss Franc FOREX

CHF 0.8292 -0.005700 (-0.6827%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
Buy
75 / 100
Last updated: • Price at analysis: CHF 0.8292
CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Anthony Beachey, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
The US Dollar Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) pair is currently trading at 0.82917, exhibiting a technically bullish setup. The price is positioned above both the 50-day simple moving average (0.8225) and the 200-day simple moving average (0.8040), suggesting upward momentum. The 14-day RSI at 50.95 indicates neutral momentum, not yet signaling overbought or oversold conditions. This technical picture is underpinned by diverging monetary policy expectations between the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank.

USD/CHF at a glance

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF): Buy, 75/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages (CHF 0.8225 and CHF 0.804).
  • Volatility Daily moves average 0.28% (30-day standard deviation).

As of October 15, 2026, US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) trades at CHF 0.8292. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 51, in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day simple moving average of CHF 0.8225.

Figures as of October 15, 2026.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from USD/CHF's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.

Seasonality
Sep +1.4% · Dec -0.9%
average best and worst month; Sep rose in 8 of 10 years
Moves with
SPY +0.17 · BTC -0.19 · Gold -0.42
1-year correlation of daily returns
2030 simulation
CHF 0.8292 base
10th-90th percentile CHF 0.6899 to CHF 0.9966

USD/CHF Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Open
CHF 0.8349
Day Range
CHF 0.8268 to CHF 0.8358
Prev Close
CHF 0.8349
52-Week Range
CHF 0.7607 to CHF 0.8395

USD/CHF Analysis

AI Analyst Consensus Score Buy
USD/CHF is trading above its 50-day simple moving average (0.8225) and its 200-day simple moving average (0.8040), indicating a bullish trend. The 20-day exponential moving average is currently at 0.8301, trading just above the current price, suggesting near-term resistance. The 14-day RSI is neutral at 50.95, showing no strong overbought or oversold signals. The Stochastic indicator at 18.68 suggests the pair is in a healthy range territory, while the CCI at -29.31 indicates bearish momentum in the short term. Key support lies at the 50-day SMA, while the 20-day EMA presents immediate resistance.
Market Outlook
The outlook for USD/CHF over the next 6-12 months is cautiously optimistic, with the potential for further appreciation driven by interest rate differentials. The Federal Reserve's commitment to price stability is expected to keep US interest rates elevated relative to Switzerland, providing a tailwind for the US Dollar. Key resistance levels to watch include the 20-day EMA at 0.8301 and potentially higher levels if the bullish momentum sustains. A sustained break above 0.8301 could open the door for a move towards the 0.84 to 0.85 range. However, any signs of a premature pivot by the Fed or a significant de-escalation of global geopolitical tensions could challenge this view.

Market Correlations

How this forex pair moves relative to other assets

Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.

S&P 500 (SPY) +0.17
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.13
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC) -0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU) -0.42
Moderate correlation

As of October 15, 2026, USD/CHF's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.17 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.13 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), -0.19 with Bitcoin (BTC) and -0.42 with gold (XAU).

Check Custom Correlation

How does any other asset move with USD/CHF? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.

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Key Statistics

USD/CHF is analysed on price action, rate differentials and macro flows: 50-day average CHF 0.8225, 200-day average CHF 0.8040, RSI 51. The trade plan below is built on these levels.
52 Week High 0.8395
52 Week Low 0.7607
The fundamental outlook for USD/CHF is shaped by the divergent monetary policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates for longer, driven by persistent inflation concerns in the US. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank, while having ended negative rates, is anticipated to adopt a more cautious approach to further tightening, given Switzerland's lower inflation environment and strong franc tendencies. This interest rate differential is a key driver supporting the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc.

Macro & Supply-Demand Drivers

Recent economic releases from both the US and Switzerland are influencing the USD/CHF pair. US inflation data, while showing signs of moderation, remains a key focus for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected US employment figures could reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, while softer data might prompt a reassessment. For Switzerland, inflation trends and GDP growth figures will be closely watched by the Swiss National Bank for guidance on future monetary policy adjustments. Any significant deviation from expected economic data could lead to volatility in USD/CHF.

Key Risks

A primary risk to the bullish outlook for USD/CHF is an unexpected shift in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve towards a more dovish stance, perhaps driven by a sharp economic slowdown or financial stability concerns. Geopolitical events that increase demand for safe-haven assets like the Swiss Franc could also pressure the pair lower. Additionally, any intervention by the Swiss National Bank to curb excessive franc appreciation could introduce volatility.

Technical Indicators i

RSI (14-day) 50.95
MACD (12, 26) 0.00252
SMA (50-day) 0.8225
SMA (200-day) 0.8040
Technical Rating Bullish
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA (CHF 0.8225) above the 200-day SMA (CHF 0.8040), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.

As of October 15, 2026, with USD/CHF at CHF 0.8292, its 14-day RSI is 51.0 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is CHF 0.8225 and its 200-day is CHF 0.804.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

USD/CHF Trade Plans

Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels

Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative 2% Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →

Long entry pick an entry style

Conservative
CHF 0.8126
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
CHF 0.8292
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry

Risk Management

STOP LOSS
CHF 0.7882
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (51.0) and current market volatility

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

TARGET 1
CHF 0.8532
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
CHF 0.8938
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
CHF 0.9345
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Calculate Your Trade
Position Size Stop Loss Risk/Reward P&L Calculator Trailing Stop Fibonacci Pivot Points Win Rate Expectancy

With leverage, losses on USD/CHF can exceed the deposit, and news can gap the price through these levels. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Growth of $10,000

A $10,000 investment in USD/CHF in October 2016 would be worth about $8,441 today, compared with about $36,237 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.

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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in USD/CHF today could grow to about $10,000 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $13,374 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,477. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

USD/CHF 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near CHF 0.8292 for USD/CHF by 2030 in the base case, from CHF 0.8292 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near CHF 0.6899. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on USD/CHF's historical return distribution, not price targets.

USD/CHF simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile
2027 CHF 0.7563 CHF 0.8292 CHF 0.909
2028 CHF 0.7281 CHF 0.8292 CHF 0.9443
2029 CHF 0.7071 CHF 0.8292 CHF 0.9723
2030 CHF 0.6899 CHF 0.8292 CHF 0.9966
2031 CHF 0.6751 CHF 0.8292 CHF 1.02

Method: a lognormal simulation of USD/CHF's own volatility with no trend assumed, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the long-term outlook for USD/CHF based on current projections?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case projection for USD/CHF in 2030 is 0.8292. The downside projection is 0.6899, and the upside projection is 0.9966. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes.
Why is USD/CHF trading at 0.82917 in October 2026?
The current price of 0.82917 reflects a combination of technical factors, including the pair trading above key moving averages, and fundamental drivers such as the diverging monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank.
What are the key technical levels for USD/CHF?
Key technical levels include the 50-day simple moving average at 0.8225 acting as support and the 20-day exponential moving average at 0.8301 serving as immediate resistance. The 200-day simple moving average at 0.8040 provides longer-term support.
Does current momentum favor USD/CHF?
The 14-day RSI is neutral at 50.95, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. However, the price being above key moving averages suggests a generally positive technical bias.
What are USD/CHF's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, September has been USD/CHF's strongest month on average (+1.35%, rising in 8 of 10 years) and December its weakest (-0.91%, rising in 3 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does USD/CHF move with the stock market?
Over the past year USD/CHF's daily returns were weakly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.17). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.13; Bitcoin (BTC): -0.19; Gold (XAU): -0.42. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in USD/CHF be worth today?
$10,000 put into USD/CHF in October 2016 would be worth about $8,441 today, against about $36,237 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for USD/CHF in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from USD/CHF's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near CHF 0.8292, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of CHF 0.6899 and CHF 0.9966. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
How volatile is USD/CHF?
USD/CHF's daily price moves average 0.28% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between CHF 0.7607 and CHF 0.8395.
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Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor (CTA), or financial regulatory body. The commodity and forex analysis presented for USD/CHF is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an offer to trade any commodity, currency, or derivative instrument. Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. Prices are influenced by geopolitical events, central bank policy, supply chain disruptions, and macroeconomic factors that can cause rapid, unpredictable price movements. All analysis is AI-generated based on historical price data and technical indicators which may not predict future market conditions. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed. You should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Consult a qualified financial advisor or commodity trading advisor before trading. Analysis generated on October 15, 2026.

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