Forex
Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD)
- 52-week range
- $1.11 $1.21
The short version
Where EUR/USD stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
EUR/USD at a glance
Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD): Hold, 55/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($1.14 and $1.15).
- Volatility Daily moves average 0.29% (30-day standard deviation).
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
The Euro/US Dollar pair is trading at 1.13 as of October 2026, reflecting a complex interplay of monetary policy divergence and technical positioning.
The pair has recently moved above its 20-day EMA at 1.13 but remains below both the 50-day SMA at 1.14 and the 200-day SMA at 1.15. This technical setup suggests a neutral to slightly bearish short-term bias, awaiting clearer direction from central bank communications and economic data releases. Geopolitical developments and shifts in inflation expectations will be key drivers. The Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for longer, in contrast to the European Central Bank's potentially more accommodative stance, creates a fundamental divergence that could influence the pair's trajectory over the coming months.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from EUR/USD's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $1.13 is 1.4% below the 50-day simple moving average of $1.14.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 2.4% below the 200-day simple moving average of $1.15.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($1.14) is 1.0% below the 200-day average ($1.15), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 15% of its 52-week range, between $1.11 and $1.21.
EUR/USD share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far EUR/USD has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where EUR/USD sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Key levels
The figures the trade plan is built on.
Key levels
The averages and the year's range that EUR/USD's trade plan is built on.
Short-term trend: EUR/USD is below its 50-day average of $1.1417.
Long-term trend: It is below its 200-day average of $1.1536.
52-week range: $1.1114 to $1.2066; the price sits 15% of the way up.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of EUR/USD's drivers and risks.
The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is a primary driver for the EUR/USD pair.
The Federal Reserve's current stance suggests a higher interest rate environment for an extended period, supporting the US Dollar. Conversely, the European Central Bank's policy path, influenced by regional economic conditions and inflation targets, may offer less support to the Euro. Recent economic data from both the US and the Eurozone will be closely scrutinized for any shifts in inflation trends or growth trajectories. Any indication of a faster-than-expected return to lower inflation in the US could prompt a reassessment of Fed policy, while persistent inflation in the Eurozone might lead the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance, both of which would significantly impact the EUR/USD pair.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 46.0, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 46.0 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of EUR/USD
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for EUR/USD, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with EUR/USD at $1.13, its 14-day RSI is 46.0 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $1.14 and its 200-day is $1.15.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What EUR/USD moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, EUR/USD's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.00 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.02 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.21 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.44 with gold (XAU).
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
EUR/USD trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
With leverage, losses on EUR/USD can exceed the deposit, and news can gap the price through these levels. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much EUR/USD tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
EUR/USD's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/2Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 0.29% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $10,225, against $36,340 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into EUR/USD in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: EUR/USD trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $10,225 against $36,340.
A $10,000 investment in EUR/USD in October 2016 would be worth about $10,225 today, compared with about $36,340 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to EUR/USD, and which have not.
Strongest month, December: an average of +0.94%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, September: an average of -1.09%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -0.47%, up in 3 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, EUR/USD's strongest calendar month has been December (average +0.94%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest September (average -1.09%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in EUR/USD, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in EUR/USD today could grow to about $10,000 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $13,271 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,535. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
EUR/USD 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1.13 for EUR/USD by 2030 in the base case, from $1.13 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $0.9412. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on EUR/USD's historical return distribution, not price targets.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.03 | $1.13 | $1.23 | |
| 2028 | $0.9918 | $1.13 | $1.28 | |
| 2029 | $0.964 | $1.13 | $1.31 | |
| 2030 | $0.9412 | $1.13 | $1.35 | |
| 2031 | $0.9215 | $1.13 | $1.37 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of EUR/USD's own volatility with no trend assumed, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.