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As of October 10, 2026, Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) trades at $199.42. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $204.24, 2.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $224.50 across 20 analysts. RSI at 31 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $211.69.
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)
Simon Property Group Inc. NYSE
$199.42
-0.1900 (-0.10%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) is trading at $199.42, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.69 and $204.24), signaling a bearish technical trend. The stock's RSI is at 31.24, indicating bearish momentum. Analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $224.50, implying a 12.6% upside from current levels. However, recent insider activity shows net selling, with $25.3M in total purchases versus $14.8M in total sales, contributing to a moderate sell signal. The company's strong profit margins and revenue growth are overshadowed by current technical weakness and insider sentiment. Despite the technical headwinds, SPG operates in the Retail REIT sector, which has a median P/E of 44.7 and revenue growth of 11%. SPG's own P/E of 14.07 and profit margin of 66.57% appear attractive on a relative basis, though its debt-to-equity ratio of 5.04 is higher than the sector average. The company's fair value is estimated at $204.24, suggesting limited immediate upside. Key risks include a potential shift in consumer spending habits and increased competition from e-commerce, which could pressure retail property demand.
SPG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$199.69
Day Range
$199.01 to $200.70
Prev Close
$199.61
Volume
1.18M
52-Week Range
$172.19 to $238.50
Market Cap
$75.70B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Real Estate)
Performance vs VNQ
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-69%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
SPG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, SPG beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
SPG Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+12.58% Upside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$224.50
AI Technical Analysis
Momentum has turned for Simon Property Group: the RSI has moved from a previous level to 31.24, now indicating bearish momentum. The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA of $211.69 and its 200-day SMA of $204.24, suggesting a bearish trend. Volume has been slightly below average, with the latest volume at 1.18M compared to an average of 1.19M, indicating a lack of strong conviction from buyers. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current downward trend, but the current price of $199.42 is approaching the 200-day SMA. The CCI is at -85.01, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The chart structure suggests potential for further downside if key moving averages continue to act as resistance.
ProTips
- Insider selling activity totaling $2 million in sales versus $1.1 million in purchases warrants close monitoring, as it suggests potential caution among management regarding near-term prospects.
- The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.69 and $204.24), indicating bearish momentum. A sustained move above these levels would be a key signal for a potential trend reversal.
- Given the elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 5.04, investors should monitor interest rate movements and the company's ability to service its debt obligations.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Insider Net Selling Trend
Insiders have sold $2 million worth of stock versus purchasing $1.1 million, indicating a moderate sell signal and potential lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Below Key Moving Averages
SPG is trading below its 50-day SMA ($211.69) and 200-day SMA ($204.24), suggesting bearish technical momentum and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Attractive Valuation Relative to Sector
SPG's P/E ratio of 14.07 is significantly lower than the sector median of 44.7, and its profit margin is exceptionally strong, presenting a potential value opportunity if market sentiment shifts.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisNeutral
Mixed Earnings Performance
Recent earnings have shown inconsistency, with a beat in the latest quarter but a significant miss prior, making future earnings a key event to watch for directional cues.
Source: Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) faces a neutral to slightly bearish outlook in the near term, with its fair value estimated at $204.24 and a median analyst target price of $224.50, indicating limited upside potential. The current price of $199.42 is below key technical levels, and recent insider selling adds a layer of caution. The company's strong profitability and revenue growth, coupled with a lower P/E than the sector, provide a foundation, but these are currently outweighed by technical weakness and financial leverage. Key catalysts for a bullish shift would include a sustained move above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, coupled with a reversal in insider sentiment and positive earnings surprises. Conversely, a failure to break above resistance levels, continued insider selling, or rising interest rates could pressure the stock further, potentially testing lower support levels. The next 5 years are projected to see an average annual growth rate of approximately 9.5%, according to analyst estimates.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 75.70B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.07 |
| EPS (TTM) | 14.17 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.46% |
| 52 Week High | 238.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 172.19 |
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) presents a mixed fundamental picture, trading at a P/E ratio of 14.07 against a sector median of 44.7, indicating a potential valuation discount. Its profit margin stands at a strong 66.57%, significantly higher than the sector average of 5.8% for ROE. However, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is 5.04, which is considerably higher than the sector median, suggesting higher financial leverage. The company's price-to-sales ratio is 10.91, which, when compared to its strong profit margins, warrants further investigation into its operational efficiency and asset utilization. While the company demonstrates strong profitability, the elevated debt levels and current bearish technicals temper the attractiveness of its valuation. The fair value estimate of $204.24 suggests that the stock is currently trading slightly below its intrinsic value, but the upside is limited.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) reported mixed earnings results in its recent quarters. The quarter to June 2026 saw an EPS beat of $1.73 versus an estimate of $1.57, a 10.19% surprise, though the stock price reacted negatively with a -0.46% change. Prior to this, the quarter to March 2026 missed estimates significantly, with actual EPS of $1.22 against $1.49, a -18.12% surprise. The company has shown a pattern of inconsistent earnings performance against analyst expectations.
Key Risks
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) faces significant risks from its elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 5.04, which could become a burden in a rising interest rate environment. The recent trend of insider net selling, with $2M in sales versus $1.1M in purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management and could precede further price declines. Additionally, the stock is trading below key technical indicators, including its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish momentum and potential for further downside.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 31.24 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -3.30 |
| SMA 50 | 211.69 |
| SMA 200 | 204.24 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($211.69) above the 200-day SMA ($204.24), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.11
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with SPG? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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SPG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$197.43
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$199.42
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$191.50
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (31.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$203.35
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$207.30
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$213.22
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for SPG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SPG in October 2016 would be worth about $10,097 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SPG today could grow to about $13,742 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $62,759 and a bear case around $3,009. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SPG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $226 for SPG by 2030 in the base case, from $199 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $86.66. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SPG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $127 | $206 | $333 |
| 2028 | $108 | $213 | $419 |
| 2029 | $95.48 | $219 | $504 |
| 2030 | $86.66 | $226 | $592 |
| 2031 | $79.87 | $234 | $684 |
| 2032 | $74.41 | $241 | $783 |
| 2033 | $69.91 | $249 | $888 |
| 2034 | $66.10 | $257 | $1,000 |
| 2035 | $62.84 | $265 | $1,121 |
| 2036 | $60.01 | $274 | $1,252 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SPG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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SPG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.1M
33 Transactions
Sold
$2.0M
1 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$90.4K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2016 | CONTIS DAVID J
Officer
|
Sell | 11.0K | $2.2M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | RULLI JOHN
Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $2.0M |
| Dec 23, 2014 | STERRETT STEPHEN E
Officer
|
Sell | 9.4K | $1.7M |
| May 16, 2019 | RULLI JOHN
Officer
|
Sell | 9.2K | $1.6M |
| Aug 29, 2016 | JUSTER ANDREW A
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 7.0K | $1.5M |
| Dec 22, 2014 | JUSTER ANDREW A
Officer and Treasurer
|
Sell | 7.5K | $1.4M |
| Oct 30, 2018 | RULLI JOHN
Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $1.1M |
| Dec 24, 2014 | RULLI JOHN
Officer
|
Sell | 5.4K | $1.0M |
| Dec 11, 2014 | BERGSTEIN MELVYN E
Director
|
Sell | 5.0K | $914.1K |
| Aug 18, 2015 | BROADWATER STEVEN K
Officer
|
Sell | 1.5K | $289.1K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) stock a buy right now?
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59. While the stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits bearish momentum, analysts have a median price target of $224.50, suggesting a potential 12.6% upside. However, recent insider selling and a high debt-to-equity ratio present considerable risks.
What is the outlook for Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) stock?
The outlook for SPG is cautiously neutral. While the company operates in a sector with strong median P/E and revenue growth, its current price is below key technical levels, and insider selling indicates potential headwinds. Analysts project modest growth, with next year's EPS estimated at $6.77 and revenue growth of 4.00%.
What are the biggest risks facing Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)?
The primary risks for SPG include its high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.04, which is significantly above the sector median, and recent insider net selling totaling $2 million in sales versus $1.1 million in purchases. Also, the stock's bearish technical momentum, with prices below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.69 and $204.24), poses a risk of further price depreciation.
How does Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) compare to its sector averages?
SPG's P/E ratio of 14.07 is substantially lower than the sector median of 44.7, and its profit margin of 66.57% is exceptionally strong compared to the sector's ROE of 5.8%. However, its debt-to-equity ratio of 5.04 is higher than the sector average. The company's revenue growth of 19.5% also outpaces the sector median of 11%.
What is the consensus rating for Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)?
The consensus rating for Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) is 'Hold', supported by a Wall Street consensus score of 59 out of 100. This is based on 14 out of 20 analysts rating the stock as 'Hold', with 1 Strong Buy and 5 Buy ratings.
What is the fair value of Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) stock?
The fair value estimate for Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) is $204.24, suggesting a limited upside of 2.42% from its current price of $199.42. This valuation is supported by the company's strong fundamentals relative to its sector, but tempered by current technical weakness and insider selling.
What are the recent earnings trends for Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)?
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) has shown inconsistent earnings performance. While it beat estimates in the quarter to June 2026 by 10.19%, it missed estimates significantly in the quarter to March 2026 by -18.12%. This pattern suggests volatility in its earnings relative to analyst expectations.