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As of September 27, 2026, The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) trades at $363.04. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $363.04, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $359.50 across 29 analysts. RSI at 42 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $372.63.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
The Travelers Companies, Inc. NYSE
$363.04
0.6500 (0.18%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
49 / 100
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is currently trading at $363.04, very close to its fair value and slightly below its 50-day SMA. The company's valuation appears reasonable with a P/E ratio of 9.74, which is below the sector median of 16.5. However, significant insider selling, totaling $163.8 million against zero purchases, signals a potential headwind. The consensus rating among 29 analysts is 'Hold' with a median price target of $359.50, indicating limited upside from current levels. Despite a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27 and a healthy profit margin of 16.95%, the overwhelming insider selling is a notable concern. While the company has a history of strong earnings beats, the recent heavy selling pressure from insiders suggests a cautious outlook. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in insider activity for further directional clues.
TRV Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$361.68
Day Range
$359.68 to $364.03
Prev Close
$362.39
Volume
807.6K
52-Week Range
$252.26 to $398.70
Market Cap
$75.72B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KIE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-41%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
TRV Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, TRV beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
TRV Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+2.50% Upside
Median of 29 analysts (12-month)
$372.12
AI Technical Analysis
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is currently trading below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $372.63, indicating a short-term bearish trend. However, the price remains above its 200-day SMA of $318.19, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, which falls into the neutral momentum category, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 807,600 compared to an average of 1,519,770, representing a 46.9% decrease. Key support levels are near the 200-day SMA, while resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA and the current price level. The current technical setup suggests a neutral to slightly bearish short-term outlook, with the longer-term trend still positive.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant bearish signal that warrants caution.
- Given the neutral RSI and price below the 50-day SMA, consider waiting for a clearer technical signal or a pullback to key support levels before initiating new positions.
- The Travelers Companies Inc. pays a dividend of approximately 1.3%. Ensure this aligns with your income investment strategy, but note that the current analyst consensus and insider activity suggest limited capital appreciation potential.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $163.8 million worth of TRV stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence in the stock's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataNeutral
Median Analyst Target Price Near Current Levels
The median analyst price target for TRV is $359.50, which is slightly below the current trading price of $363.04, suggesting limited upside potential according to Wall Street.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsNeutral
Projected Decline in Forward Earnings
Forward EPS estimates for next year are projected to decrease to $30.28 from the current year's estimate of $34.06, posing a risk to future profitability.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Strong Earnings Beat in Latest Quarter
The company reported an EPS of $10.04 for the quarter ending June 2026, significantly exceeding the estimate of $5.39 by 86.27%.
Source: Company Earnings ReportMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) over the next 6-12 months suggests limited upside, given its current trading price near the median analyst target of $359.50 and the prevailing 'Hold' consensus. While the company's strong fundamentals, including a healthy profit margin and reasonable valuation, provide a stable foundation, the significant insider selling pressure and projected decline in earnings next year temper bullish expectations. Potential catalysts for upside could include stronger-than-expected earnings beats or a significant shift in insider sentiment towards buying. Conversely, a continuation of the heavy insider selling, a deterioration in the property and casualty insurance market, or a failure to meet forward earnings expectations could lead to downside. The company's dividend yield of approximately 1.3% offers some return, but the overall outlook remains neutral to cautiously bearish.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 75.72B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.74 |
| EPS (TTM) | 37.22 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.29% |
| 52 Week High | 398.70 |
| 52 Week Low | 252.26 |
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) exhibits a compelling valuation with a P/E ratio of 9.74, significantly lower than the sector median of 16.5, and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.54, which is also below the sector average. The company's return on equity stands at a strong 26.51%, and its profit margin is a healthy 16.95%, both exceeding sector averages. The debt-to-equity ratio is a manageable 0.27. Despite these strong fundamental metrics, the current price of $363.04 is trading at a slight discount to the median analyst target price of $359.50, implying minimal upside. The company's revenue growth has been modest at 0.3%, and forward revenue growth estimates for the next year are projected at 3.00%, which is below the sector average of 11.7%. This suggests that while the company is financially sound, its growth prospects may be limited.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) has demonstrated a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with the most recent quarter to June 2026 showing an EPS of $10.04 against an estimate of $5.39, a significant 86.27% surprise. This beat was followed by a slight price decrease of 0.13%. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, including an 8.9% beat in March 2026 and a 23.99% beat in December 2025. While recent earnings performance has been strong, the forward EPS estimates for the next quarter and year show a decline, with next year's EPS estimate at $30.28 compared to the current year's estimate of $34.06. This projected decrease in earnings, coupled with the recent revenue growth stagnation, warrants attention.
Key Risks
The primary risk for The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) stems from significant insider selling, with over $163.8 million in sales against no reported purchases, indicating a lack of internal confidence. Additionally, the stock is trading slightly below the median analyst price target of $359.50, suggesting limited upside potential from current levels. Forward earnings growth estimates are also projected to decline next year, posing a risk to future performance.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 42.00 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.79 |
| SMA 50 | 372.63 |
| SMA 200 | 318.19 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($372.63) above the 200-day SMA ($318.19), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.24
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.08
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with TRV? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
TRV Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$359.41
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$363.04
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$348.63
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (42.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$370.19
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$377.38
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$388.16
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TRV is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TRV in September 2016 would be worth about $31,731 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TRV today could grow to about $25,196 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $69,499 and a bear case around $9,135. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TRV Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $525 for TRV by 2030 in the base case, from $363 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $277. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TRV's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $289 | $398 | $549 |
| 2028 | $277 | $437 | $688 |
| 2029 | $275 | $479 | $835 |
| 2030 | $277 | $525 | $998 |
| 2031 | $281 | $576 | $1,181 |
| 2032 | $288 | $632 | $1,387 |
| 2033 | $297 | $693 | $1,620 |
| 2034 | $307 | $760 | $1,884 |
| 2035 | $319 | $834 | $2,184 |
| 2036 | $332 | $915 | $2,523 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TRV's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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TRV Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$163.8M
58 Transactions
Insiders
24
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2023 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 150.8K | $28.4M |
| Feb 4, 2026 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 55.7K | $16.4M |
| Oct 21, 2024 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.5K | $13.1M |
| Feb 2, 2022 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 66.5K | $11.3M |
| May 29, 2025 | OLIVO MARIA
Officer
|
Sell | 36.2K | $9.9M |
| May 29, 2025 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 35.5K | $9.7M |
| Jan 26, 2024 | TOCZYDLOWSKI GREGORY C
Officer
|
Sell | 45.6K | $9.7M |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 44.9K | $9.5M |
| Apr 22, 2021 | SCHNITZER ALAN D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 61.0K | $9.5M |
| Apr 23, 2019 | BENET JAY S
Officer
|
Sell | 61.0K | $8.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Travelers Companies Inc. stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) has a projected base case price of $525.40 for 2030, with a downside scenario of $276.57 and an upside scenario of $998.10. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is The Travelers Companies Inc. stock a buy right now?
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) currently holds a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $359.50, which is slightly below the current price of $363.04. Significant insider selling and a neutral RSI suggest a cautious approach is warranted.
What are the key technical levels for TRV stock?
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $372.63, which acts as resistance, but remains above its 200-day SMA of $318.19, which serves as support. The RSI is neutral at 42.
How does TRV's valuation compare to its peers?
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) is trading at a P/E ratio of 9.74 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.54, which are both below the sector medians of 16.5 and 3.8 respectively, indicating a potentially attractive valuation relative to its peers.
What is the insider sentiment for The Travelers Companies Inc.?
Insider sentiment for The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) is heavily skewed towards selling, with $517.1M in total sales versus $283K in total purchases in recent filings. The heavy insider selling indicates significant insider selling pressure.
What was TRV's most recent earnings performance?
In its most recent quarter to June 2026, The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) reported an EPS of $10.04, significantly beating the estimate of $5.39 by 86.27%, though the stock saw a slight price decrease of 0.13% following the announcement.
What is the outlook for The Travelers Companies Inc. revenue growth?
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) has experienced minimal revenue growth recently at 0.3%. Forward estimates suggest a modest increase to 3.00% for next year, which is considerably lower than the sector median revenue growth of 11.7%.