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As of September 26, 2026, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) trades at $205.50. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $230.00, 11.9% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $230.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 30 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $214.14.
The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
The Progressive Corporation NYSE
$205.50
3.330 (1.65%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently trading at $205.50, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($214.14 and $209.68), signaling near-term weakness. The stock's RSI is at 29.58, indicating oversold conditions, which could precede a bounce. However, significant insider selling, with over $77 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, presents a notable bearish signal, overshadowing the oversold technicals. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a 'Hold' consensus score of 59 out of 100, reflecting 15 'Hold' ratings out of 25 total analysts. The median price target of $230.00 suggests a limited upside of 11.9% from the current price. While the company's fundamentals, including a strong profit margin of 12.85% and a healthy return on equity of 34.94%, are strong, the current valuation at a P/E of 10.31 is below the sector median of 16.5, but the recent price action and insider activity warrant caution.
PGR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$202.50
Day Range
$201.60 to $205.85
Prev Close
$202.17
Volume
2.83M
52-Week Range
$189.20 to $249.14
Market Cap
$119.27B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KIE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-38%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
PGR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, PGR beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
PGR Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+11.92% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$230.00
AI Technical Analysis
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) exhibits bearish technical momentum, trading below its 50-day ($214.14), 200-day ($209.68), and 20-day ($212.77) moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 29.58, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound. However, the MACD indicator is at -2.85, indicating downward pressure. Key support levels are being tested, with the stock currently trading below its immediate moving averages. Volume has been below average recently, with 2.83 million shares traded compared to a 3.45 million average, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action. The oversold RSI, coupled with the bearish trend below moving averages, creates a divergence that investors should monitor closely for any signs of a reversal or continued decline.
ProTips
- Monitor insider activity closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant bearish signal that could precede further price declines.
- Given the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($214.14 and $209.68) and is in oversold territory, consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout or a change in insider sentiment before initiating new positions.
- While PGR's valuation appears attractive relative to its sector, the current bearish technicals and insider selling suggest a 'wait-and-see' approach may be prudent for risk management.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $77 million worth of PGR stock with no reported purchases, indicating a strong bearish sentiment from management and potentially signaling future price declines.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
PGR is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($214.14 and $209.68), suggesting a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside.
Source: Technical Analysis DataBullish
Oversold RSI Conditions
The stock's RSI is at 29.58, indicating oversold conditions which historically can precede a short-term price rebound or reversal.
Source: Technical Analysis DataNeutral
Mixed Analyst Sentiment
With a 'Hold' consensus and a median price target of $230.00, Wall Street analysts are divided, suggesting limited conviction for a strong upward or downward move in the near term.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for The Progressive Corporation (PGR) suggests a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $230.00, representing an 11.9% upside from current levels. This outlook is supported by the company's strong fundamental metrics, including a healthy profit margin and return on equity, and its valuation appearing attractive relative to sector peers. However, the current technical downtrend and significant insider selling present immediate headwinds that could delay or cap any significant upward movement. Key factors that could alter this thesis include a shift in insider sentiment, with any sustained buying activity potentially reversing the bearish signal. Conversely, continued weakness below key moving averages and a failure to break out of oversold conditions could lead to further downside, potentially testing the lower end of analyst price targets. The company's ability to maintain its strong profitability and revenue growth amidst a competitive insurance market will be critical for long-term performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 119.27B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.31 |
| EPS (TTM) | 19.93 |
| Dividend Yield | 6.76% |
| 52 Week High | 249.14 |
| 52 Week Low | 189.20 |
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) trades at a P/E ratio of 10.31, which is below the Financial Services sector median of 16.5, indicating a potentially attractive valuation on earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.31, also below the sector average of 3.8. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 12.85% and an operating margin of 18.21%, significantly outperforming the sector's average return on equity of 13.8% with its own ROE at 34.94%. Despite the favorable valuation and strong profitability metrics, the significant insider selling totaling over $77 million raises concerns about management's near-term outlook. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 is well within healthy limits and below the sector average of 0.24, suggesting a solid balance sheet. However, the current price action and insider activity temper the otherwise positive fundamental picture.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with actual EPS of $4.85 beating the estimate of $4.84 by 0.21%, leading to a modest 0.28% price increase. Prior quarters also showed positive EPS surprises, including a notable 16.15% beat in the quarter ending December 2025. However, the quarter ending September 2025 saw a significant miss of 19.8% on EPS estimates, resulting in a 2.1% stock price decline. While recent earnings have generally met or exceeded expectations, the mixed performance over the last year, including a substantial miss, suggests some volatility in earnings predictability. The company's revenue growth has been steady, with current quarter estimates projecting a 5.00% year-over-year increase.
Key Risks
The primary risk for The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is the significant insider selling, with over $77 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, signaling a potential lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish technical momentum that could persist. The mixed analyst sentiment, with a 'Hold' consensus and a median price target offering limited upside, further contributes to the cautious outlook.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 29.58 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -2.85 |
| SMA 50 | 214.14 |
| SMA 200 | 209.68 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($214.14) above the 200-day SMA ($209.68), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.04
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.10
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PGR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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PGR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$203.45
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$205.50
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$196.37
MAX LOSS
-3.5%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (29.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$209.55
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$213.62
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$219.72
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PGR is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PGR in September 2016 would be worth about $65,823 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PGR today could grow to about $34,237 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $95,190 and a bear case around $12,314. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PGR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $336 for PGR by 2030 in the base case, from $206 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $176. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PGR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $168 | $232 | $321 |
| 2028 | $166 | $263 | $415 |
| 2029 | $170 | $297 | $520 |
| 2030 | $176 | $336 | $642 |
| 2031 | $185 | $380 | $784 |
| 2032 | $195 | $430 | $950 |
| 2033 | $207 | $486 | $1,144 |
| 2034 | $220 | $550 | $1,373 |
| 2035 | $236 | $622 | $1,641 |
| 2036 | $253 | $704 | $1,956 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PGR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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PGR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$77.0M
50 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2023 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $14.7M |
| Sep 3, 2024 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 43.4K | $10.9M |
| Jul 22, 2024 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 43.4K | $9.3M |
| Sep 1, 2026 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.3K | $8.2M |
| Jul 27, 2026 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.3K | $7.9M |
| Sep 2, 2025 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.7K | $7.5M |
| Jul 28, 2025 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.7K | $7.4M |
| Oct 17, 2022 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $5.8M |
| Feb 21, 2024 | CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
|
Sell | 29.7K | $5.6M |
| Mar 18, 2022 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 46.7K | $5.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock a buy right now?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59. While the stock is trading below its key moving averages and shows significant insider selling, its oversold RSI at 29.6 might suggest a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the limited upside to the median analyst price target of $230.00 indicates caution.
What is PGR's current stock price and target price?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently trading at $205.50. The median analyst price target for PGR is $230.00, suggesting an upside potential of 11.9% from the current price.
What are the key risks facing The Progressive Corporation?
The main risks for The Progressive Corporation include significant insider selling totaling over $77 million, a bearish technical trend with the stock trading below its key moving averages, and a mixed 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street analysts, which limits near-term upside potential.
How are The Progressive Corporation's recent earnings?
The Progressive Corporation recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, beating estimates by 0.21% and leading to a slight stock price increase. While most recent quarters have met or exceeded expectations, a notable miss occurred in the September 2025 quarter, indicating some earnings volatility.
What is the outlook for The Progressive Corporation's revenue growth?
Analysts project revenue growth for The Progressive Corporation to be around +5.00% for the current quarter and +4.00% for the next quarter. For the full year 2026, revenue growth is estimated at +5.00%, with a more substantial acceleration to +6.00% projected for 2027.
How does PGR's valuation compare to its sector peers?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) trades at a P/E ratio of 10.31 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.31, both of which are below the Financial Services sector medians of 16.5 and 3.8, respectively. This suggests PGR may be undervalued relative to its peers based on these metrics.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for PGR stock?
Insider trading activity for The Progressive Corporation indicates a heavy insider selling, with over $77 million in sales and no reported purchases. This net selling pressure from insiders is a significant bearish indicator that warrants close attention from investors.
What is PGR stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, The Progressive Corporation's (PGR) stock forecast for 2030 shows a base case price of $336.21, a downside projection of $176.09, and an upside scenario of $641.92. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.