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As of September 27, 2026, Morgan Stanley (MS) trades at $196.31. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $243.00, 23.8% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $243.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 19 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $211.91.
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Morgan Stanley NYSE
$196.31
-0.0100 (-0.01%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Morgan Stanley (MS) is currently trading at $196.31, below its 50-day SMA of $211.91 and its 200-day SMA of $193.59, indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's consensus rating is 'Hold' with a consensus score of 59, and Wall Street analysts have set a median price target of $243, implying a 23.8% upside. Despite this potential upside, significant insider selling, with over $98.7 million in dispositions versus only $5.6 thousand in purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management. Financially, Morgan Stanley reported a profit margin of 25.90% and a return on equity of 17.97%, which are strong figures. Revenue growth for the current year is estimated at 17.00%, with next year projected at 5.00%. However, the heavy insider selling pressure and the current technical setup, with the RSI significantly oversold at 18.63, warrant caution.
MS Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$197.98
Day Range
$194.25 to $197.98
Prev Close
$196.32
Volume
4.53M
52-Week Range
$151.84 to $232.25
Market Cap
$308.32B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs IAI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-4% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
MS Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, MS beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
MS Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+23.78% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$243.00
AI Technical Analysis
Morgan Stanley's stock is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($211.91) but above its 200-day SMA ($193.59), at $196.31 versus the 50-day SMA of $211.91 and the 200-day SMA of $193.59, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is significantly oversold at 18.63, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, while the MACD is negative at -4.44, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support levels are near the 200-day SMA at $193.59, with resistance found at the 50-day SMA at $211.91 and the 20-day EMA at $205.98. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 4.53 million compared to an average of 6.06 million, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action.
ProTips
- Given the significant insider selling pressure, investors should closely monitor any further dispositions and consider waiting for clearer signals of institutional confidence before initiating or increasing positions.
- The significantly oversold RSI suggests a potential short-term bounce, but the bearish trend below key moving averages indicates that any rally may face significant resistance.
- With a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.17, which is higher than the sector average, investors should pay close attention to the company's interest coverage and its ability to manage its debt obligations, particularly in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $98.7 million worth of stock versus only $5.6 thousand in purchases, indicating a strong net selling signal from management.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 18.63, indicating the stock is significantly oversold and may be due for a technical bounce or short-term reversal.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Median Analyst Price Target Upside
Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $243, suggesting a potential 23.8% upside from the current stock price.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusNeutral
Consistent EPS Beats
Morgan Stanley has a track record of beating EPS estimates, as seen in the quarter to June 2026 with an 18.09% surprise, though market reactions have been mixed.
Source: Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
Morgan Stanley's base case scenario anticipates a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $243 over the next 6-12 months, driven by its strong profitability and consistent EPS beats. The current oversold RSI of 18.63 suggests a technical rebound is possible, which could propel the stock towards its 50-day SMA resistance at $211.91 and potentially higher. However, significant insider selling, with over $98.7 million in dispositions, presents a substantial risk that could cap upside potential and signal underlying concerns not reflected in analyst targets. A failure to break above key resistance levels and sustained selling pressure could lead to a retest of the 200-day SMA at $193.59 or lower, especially if broader market sentiment shifts negatively or if the company's higher debt levels become a concern.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 308.32B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.86 |
| EPS (TTM) | 12.38 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
| 52 Week High | 232.25 |
| 52 Week Low | 151.84 |
Morgan Stanley exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 25.90% and a return on equity of 17.97%, exceeding the sector median ROE of 13.8%. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.96, which is slightly above the sector average of 3.8, while its debt-to-equity ratio is 5.17, also higher than the sector median. The company's current P/E ratio of 15.86, which is slightly below the sector average P/E of 16.5. While the company demonstrates strong profitability and solid revenue growth estimates, with current year revenue growth projected at 17.00%, the valuation metrics, particularly the price-to-sales and debt-to-equity ratios, suggest it is trading at a slight premium compared to its peers. The forward P/E for next year is estimated at 13.68, indicating potential for earnings growth.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Morgan Stanley's recent earnings performance shows consistent EPS beats, with the quarter to June 2026 reporting an EPS of $3.46 against an estimate of $2.93, an 18.09% surprise, though the stock reacted negatively with a -4.45% price change. The prior quarter to March 2026 also saw an EPS beat of 13.58%. However, the company missed estimates in the quarter to March 2026 by 14.93%. Overall, the company has demonstrated an ability to exceed analyst expectations, but market reactions have been mixed.
Key Risks
Significant insider selling, with over $98.7 million in dispositions, presents a key risk, suggesting a lack of management confidence despite a 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street. The stock's current technical position below key moving averages and significantly oversold RSI indicates potential for further downside pressure in the near term. Additionally, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 5.17 is higher than the sector average, which could pose a risk in a rising interest rate environment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 18.63 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.44 |
| SMA 50 | 211.91 |
| SMA 200 | 193.59 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($211.91) above the 200-day SMA ($193.59), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 18.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.73
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.66
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.14
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MS? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
MS Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$194.35
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$196.31
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$187.93
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (18.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$200.18
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$204.06
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$209.89
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MS is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MS in September 2016 would be worth about $62,619 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MS today could grow to about $33,619 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $119,634 and a bear case around $9,447. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MS Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $319 for MS by 2030 in the base case, from $196 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $143. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $148 | $222 | $331 |
| 2028 | $142 | $250 | $441 |
| 2029 | $141 | $282 | $566 |
| 2030 | $143 | $319 | $712 |
| 2031 | $147 | $360 | $883 |
| 2032 | $152 | $406 | $1,086 |
| 2033 | $159 | $459 | $1,327 |
| 2034 | $166 | $518 | $1,612 |
| 2035 | $175 | $585 | $1,949 |
| 2036 | $185 | $660 | $2,349 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MS's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
MS Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$5.6K
1 Transactions
Sold
$98.7M
25 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2019 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 7.9M | $326.9M |
| Mar 22, 2019 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 6.2M | $262.7M |
| Dec 20, 2019 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 4.7M | $230.6M |
| Jul 29, 2019 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.6M | $70.1M |
| Oct 29, 2019 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.1M | $51.7M |
| Jan 29, 2019 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.2M | $49.6M |
| Jan 18, 2023 | GORMAN JAMES P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 250.0K | $24.2M |
| Jul 17, 2024 | GORMAN JAMES P
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 200.0K | $21.0M |
| Oct 31, 2025 | PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $16.4M |
| Jan 18, 2023 | PICK EDWARD N.
Officer
|
Sell | 135.0K | $13.1M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Morgan Stanley's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Morgan Stanley's stock is projected to reach a base case price of $318.84 by 2030, with a downside projection of $142.86 and an upside projection of $711.59. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Morgan Stanley stock a buy right now?
Morgan Stanley is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59. While the median analyst price target suggests a 23.8% upside, significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators warrant caution.
What is Morgan Stanley's current technical outlook?
The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($211.91) but above its 200-day SMA ($193.59), indicating a bearish trend, and its RSI is significantly oversold at 18.63, suggesting a potential for a bounce. Volume has been below average recently.
How does Morgan Stanley's financial health compare to its peers?
Morgan Stanley shows strong profit margins (25.90%) and ROE (17.97%), exceeding sector medians. However, its debt-to-equity ratio (5.17) is higher than the sector average (N/A), and its P/S ratio (3.96) is slightly above the sector median (3.8).
What are the key risks facing Morgan Stanley?
The primary risks include heavy insider selling, a bearish technical setup with the stock below key moving averages, and a higher-than-sector-average debt-to-equity ratio. Mixed reactions to recent earnings also present a concern.
What is the Wall Street consensus on Morgan Stanley stock?
The Wall Street consensus is 'Hold', with a score of 59 out of 100, based on ratings from 25 analysts. The median price target is $243, suggesting a 23.8% upside from the current price.
What was Morgan Stanley's most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter to June 2026, Morgan Stanley reported an EPS of $3.46, beating estimates by 18.09%, though the stock price declined by 4.45%. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, but market reactions have been varied.