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As of September 11, 2026, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) trades at $67.99. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $100.00, 47.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $100.00 across 35 analysts. RSI at 36 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $76.40.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)
Affirm Holdings, Inc. NASDAQ
$67.99
-0.1600 (-0.23%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
72 / 100
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is currently trading at $67.99, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed technical picture. The company's financial performance has been marked by substantial earnings beats in recent quarters, notably a 484.71% EPS surprise in August 2026. Revenue growth is projected to remain strong, with current year estimates showing a 28.00% year-over-year increase. Wall Street analysts maintain a predominantly positive outlook, with a consensus rating of Buy and a median price target of $100, implying a 47.1% upside potential. However, significant insider selling, totaling $186.2 million, presents a notable risk, suggesting a lack of confidence from management despite the positive analyst sentiment and strong revenue trajectory.
AFRM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$66.86
Day Range
$66.03 to $69.03
Prev Close
$68.15
Volume
3.72M
52-Week Range
$42.10 to $100.00
Market Cap
$22.94B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-25%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
AFRM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, AFRM beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
AFRM Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+47.08% Upside
Median of 35 analysts (12-month)
$100.00
AI Technical Analysis
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is trading below its 50-day SMA ($76.40) but above its 200-day SMA ($66.59), with its RSI at 35.57 indicating bearish momentum. The stock's current price is below its 50-day SMA ($76.40) but above its 200-day SMA ($66.59), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The RSI reading of 35.57 further reinforces this, signaling bearish momentum. While the stock is above its 200-day SMA, the proximity and downward trend of the 50-day SMA suggest potential resistance. Volume has been below average recently, indicating a lack of strong conviction from traders.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the recent heavy selling of $186.2 million warrants attention despite positive analyst ratings.
- The stock's bearish technical momentum, indicated by its RSI and position relative to moving averages, suggests caution for short-term traders.
- Given the competitive nature of the BNPL sector, Affirm's ability to maintain its growth rate and manage credit risk will be critical for future performance.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat
Affirm Holdings reported an EPS surprise of 484.71% in its latest quarter, indicating strong operational execution and potential for continued earnings outperformance.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBullish
Projected Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast current year revenue growth of 28.00%, significantly above the sector average, suggesting increasing market share and demand for Affirm's services.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A 'Buy' consensus rating from 35 analysts with a median price target of $100 indicates strong conviction on Wall Street regarding Affirm's future prospects.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Heavy Insider Selling
Insiders have sold a total of $186.2 million in stock, signaling potential concerns about valuation or future performance from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock's RSI is below 40 and it is trading below its 50-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is positioned for potential upside towards its median analyst target price of $100 over the next 6-12 months, driven by strong projected revenue growth and a favorable P/E ratio relative to its peers. However, the significant insider selling pressure and bearish technical momentum present considerable risks that could impede this trajectory. A failure to curb insider dispositions or a worsening competitive environment could lead to a re-evaluation of the stock's prospects, potentially pushing it towards its downside projection.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 22.94B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.29 |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.53 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 100.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 42.10 |
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue expansion, though valuation metrics require careful consideration against sector averages. The company's reported P/E ratio of 12.29 is below the sector median of 16.5, which could suggest an attractive valuation if earnings are sustainable. However, the significant EPS beat in the most recent quarter (484.71% surprise) warrants scrutiny to understand its drivers. The projected revenue growth of 28.00% for the current year significantly outpaces the sector average of 11.7%, indicating strong market adoption for Affirm's services. Despite the positive growth outlook, the substantial insider selling warrants caution regarding management's near-term confidence in the stock's valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) demonstrated exceptional earnings performance in its most recent reported quarter ending August 27, 2026, delivering an EPS of $4.97 against an estimate of $0.85, a surprise of 484.71%. This follows a pattern of positive surprises in two of the last four reported quarters, with the company beating estimates in January 2026 and February 2026, though missing in February 2026. The strong EPS beat in the latest quarter, coupled with projected revenue growth of 29.00% for the current quarter, suggests a strong operational trajectory.
Key Risks
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) faces significant risk from heavy insider selling, with $186.2 million in dispositions reported, indicating a potential lack of management confidence in the current valuation. Additionally, the stock's bearish technical momentum, evidenced by its RSI below 40 and trading below key moving averages, suggests potential for further price declines. The competition in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) sector also poses a risk, as established financial institutions and fintech rivals continue to innovate and capture market share.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 35.57 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.53 |
| SMA 50 | 76.40 |
| SMA 200 | 66.59 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($76.40) above the 200-day SMA ($66.59), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.58
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.55
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.39
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
AFRM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$66.63
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$67.99
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$61.97
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (35.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$69.96
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$73.29
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$76.62
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AFRM is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.35%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AFRM in January 2021 would be worth about $7,055 today, compared with about $19,954 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AFRM today could grow to about $9,608 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $72,895 and a bear case around $1,266. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AFRM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $66.91 for AFRM by 2030 in the base case, from $67.99 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $18.57. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AFRM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $35.68 | $67.72 | $129 |
| 2028 | $27.25 | $67.45 | $167 |
| 2029 | $22.14 | $67.18 | $204 |
| 2030 | $18.57 | $66.91 | $241 |
| 2031 | $15.90 | $66.65 | $279 |
| 2032 | $13.82 | $66.38 | $319 |
| 2033 | $12.13 | $66.12 | $360 |
| 2034 | $10.75 | $65.85 | $403 |
| 2035 | $9.59 | $65.59 | $448 |
| 2036 | $8.61 | $65.33 | $496 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AFRM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
AFRM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$186.2M
34 Transactions
Insiders
18
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$5.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2023 | GIC PRIVATE LTD
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.9M | $116.3M |
| Jan 5, 2026 | LEVCHIN MAKSIM RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 666.7K | $53.7M |
| Aug 28, 2025 | LEVCHIN MAX R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 499.2K | $40.0M |
| Nov 1, 2021 | MICHALEK LIBOR
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 234.7K | $36.1M |
| Dec 12, 2024 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 400.0K | $27.6M |
| Mar 3, 2021 | MICHALEK LIBOR
Officer
|
Sell | 263.4K | $23.7M |
| Nov 1, 2021 | MARTINCEVIC SILVIJA
Officer
|
Sell | 150.0K | $23.1M |
| Nov 1, 2021 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 115.0K | $17.7M |
| Aug 22, 2025 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 184.2K | $14.8M |
| Nov 25, 2024 | MICHALEK LIBOR
President
|
Sell | 197.2K | $13.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Affirm Holdings (AFRM) stock a buy right now?
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is currently rated a Buy by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $100 suggesting a 47.1% upside from its current price of $67.99. The company also shows strong revenue growth projections.
What is Affirm Holdings' (AFRM) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Affirm Holdings' (AFRM) stock price forecast for 2030 shows a base case of $66.91, with a downside projection of $18.57 and an upside projection of $241.04. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Affirm Holdings (AFRM)?
The primary risks for Affirm Holdings (AFRM) include significant insider selling totaling $186.2 million, bearish technical momentum indicated by its RSI and moving averages, and intense competition within the Buy Now, Pay Later sector.
How is Affirm Holdings (AFRM) performing financially?
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) recently reported an exceptional EPS beat of 484.71% and is projected to achieve 28.00% revenue growth this year, significantly outpacing sector averages.
What is the Wall Street consensus on Affirm Holdings (AFRM) stock?
Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus rating of Buy for Affirm Holdings (AFRM), with 35 analysts covering the stock. The median price target is $100, and the overall Wall Street score is 72 out of 100.
How does Affirm Holdings' (AFRM) valuation compare to its peers?
Affirm Holdings' (AFRM) P/E ratio of 12.29 is below the sector median of 16.5, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation relative to its peers, especially given its strong projected revenue growth.
What is the outlook for Affirm Holdings (AFRM) in the next 6-12 months?
The base case outlook for Affirm Holdings (AFRM) over the next 6-12 months anticipates continued revenue growth and potential upside towards its median analyst target price of $100, contingent on managing insider selling pressures and competitive dynamics.