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As of October 11, 2026, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) trades at $453.31. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $453.31, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $538.50 across 21 analysts. RSI at 55 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $432.47.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. NYSE
$453.31
-4.680 (-1.02%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is currently trading at $453.31, reflecting its strong market position in the semiconductor industry. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth of 36% and a leading profit margin of 49.92%, significantly outpacing sector averages. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a median price target of $538.5, suggesting an 18.8% upside potential. TSM's technicals show it trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($432.47 and $391.77), indicating a generally positive trend, though it is currently below its 20-day EMA. The RSI is neutral at 54.72, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Insider activity shows a moderate buy signal, with $346.4K in net purchases, reinforcing confidence in the company's future prospects. The company also offers a modest dividend yield of 0.85%.
TSM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$464.21
Day Range
$449.75 to $464.83
Prev Close
$457.99
Volume
9.23M
52-Week Range
$266.82 to $487.47
Market Cap
$2.35T
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-3% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
TSM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, TSM beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
TSM Analysis
Company's Health
5/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+18.79% Upside
Median of 21 analysts (12-month)
$538.50
AI Technical Analysis
TSM is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $432.47 and its 200-day SMA of $391.77, indicating a positive long-term trend. However, the stock is presently trading below its 20-day EMA of $453.81, suggesting some near-term consolidation or resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 54.72, signaling no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Key support levels are found around the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, while resistance may be encountered near the current 20-day EMA. Trading volume has been slightly below its average, which could imply a lack of strong conviction from traders in the immediate price action. The overall chart structure suggests a healthy uptrend that is currently experiencing a pause.
ProTips
- Consider the geopolitical risks associated with TSM's operations in Taiwan and their potential impact on supply chain stability.
- Monitor TSM's ability to maintain its technological lead and secure long-term contracts with major chip designers like Apple and NVIDIA.
- Given the strong insider buying signal, consider the implications for management's confidence in the company's near-to-medium term prospects.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
21 analysts cover TSM with a consensus 'Buy' rating and a median price target of $538.50, indicating significant upside potential.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Exceeding Earnings Estimates
TSM consistently beats EPS estimates, demonstrating operational strength and execution capabilities.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Moderate Insider Buying
Insiders have made net purchases totaling $346.4K, signaling confidence in the company's future performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
TSM's revenue growth of 36% and profit margin of 49.92% significantly outperform sector averages, highlighting its market dominance.
Source: Company FundamentalsBearish
Geopolitical Risks in Taiwan
Potential geopolitical instability in Taiwan could disrupt TSM's operations and impact global semiconductor supply chains.
Source: Geopolitical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for TSM is positive, driven by its dominant position in the semiconductor manufacturing industry and strong projected earnings and revenue growth. Analysts have a median price target of $538.50, implying an 18.8% upside from the current price. The company's strong profit margins and efficient operations support this optimistic view. Potential upside catalysts include continued technological innovation, securing new major foundry contracts, and favorable geopolitical developments. Conversely, downside risks involve intensified competition, potential supply chain disruptions, and any significant slowdown in global semiconductor demand. A failure to meet the exceptionally high growth expectations could also pressure the stock price.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 11.76T |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.94 |
| EPS (TTM) | 13.76 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.85% |
| 52 Week High | 487.47 |
| 52 Week Low | 266.82 |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) exhibits strong fundamental performance, with a current P/E ratio of 32.94, which is slightly above the sector median of 34.0, but its revenue growth of 36% significantly exceeds the sector average of 24.1%. The company boasts an impressive profit margin of 49.92% and an operating margin of 60.34%, far surpassing sector averages. Its return on equity stands at a strong 39.97%, indicating efficient capital utilization. The company's price-to-sales ratio of 0.53 is well below the sector median of 7.5, suggesting that TSM is valued more reasonably on a revenue basis compared to its peers. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, TSM maintains a healthy balance sheet, indicating low financial leverage. These fundamentals suggest a company with strong profitability and growth, justifying its current valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
TSM most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, exceeding analyst expectations with an EPS of $4.31 against an estimate of $3.89, a surprise of 10.8%. This beat was accompanied by a price decrease of 2.77%. Prior quarters also showed a pattern of positive EPS surprises, although the stock reaction has been mixed, including a 1.79% drop following the March 2026 quarter's results despite a 26.83% surprise. Analysts project strong earnings growth, with current year EPS estimated at $16.96 and next year's at $22.05. Revenue growth estimates are also exceptionally high, with next quarter projected at +54.00% year-over-year and current year at +43.00%. This consistent ability to beat estimates and strong forward guidance indicates strong operational performance.
Key Risks
While TSM demonstrates strong fundamentals and market leadership, potential risks include its premium valuation relative to some sector peers and the stock's current trading below its 20-day EMA, indicating possible near-term price pressure. Geopolitical tensions in the region could also pose a risk to supply chain stability and investor sentiment. Also, the mixed stock reactions to recent earnings beats, despite positive surprises, suggest that market expectations are already very high, and any deviation could lead to significant price adjustments. The company's reliance on advanced manufacturing technology also exposes it to rapid technological obsolescence and intense competition.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 54.72 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 10.86 |
| SMA 50 | 432.47 |
| SMA 200 | 391.77 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($432.47) above the 200-day SMA ($391.77), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.65
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.74
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with TSM? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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TSM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$444.24
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$453.31
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$421.90
MAX LOSS
-5.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (54.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$466.46
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$488.67
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$510.88
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TSM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TSM in October 2016 would be worth about $147,514 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TSM today could grow to about $43,862 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $179,854 and a bear case around $10,697. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TSM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $819 for TSM by 2030 in the base case, from $453 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $335. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TSM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $336 | $526 | $821 |
| 2028 | $324 | $609 | $1,145 |
| 2029 | $326 | $706 | $1,530 |
| 2030 | $335 | $819 | $1,999 |
| 2031 | $350 | $949 | $2,575 |
| 2032 | $369 | $1,101 | $3,284 |
| 2033 | $392 | $1,276 | $4,155 |
| 2034 | $419 | $1,479 | $5,226 |
| 2035 | $450 | $1,715 | $6,541 |
| 2036 | $485 | $1,988 | $8,153 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TSM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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TSM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$346.4K
5 Transactions
Sold
None
No open-market sells
Insiders
2
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$69.3K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 15 | $5.9K |
| Jul 20, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 10 | $4.1K |
| May 20, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 17 | $6.7K |
| Apr 28, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 20 | $7.8K |
| Mar 31, 2026 | BURNS URSULA M
Director
|
Buy | 1.0K | $322.1K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is TSM's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, TSM's stock price is projected to be $818.90 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $335.46 and the upside projection is $1,999.03. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) a buy right now?
TSM is currently rated a 'Buy' with a consensus score of 79 out of 100. The median analyst price target is $538.50, suggesting an 18.8% upside from the current price of $453.31.
How has TSM performed in recent earnings reports?
TSM has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 10.8% surprise in the quarter ending June 2026. However, stock price reactions have been mixed, with some beats followed by price declines.
What are the key technical indicators for TSM stock?
TSM is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($432.47 and $391.77), indicating a positive long-term trend. The RSI is neutral at 54.72, and the stock is currently below its 20-day EMA, suggesting potential near-term consolidation.
How does TSM's valuation compare to its sector peers?
TSM's P/E ratio of 32.94 is slightly above the sector median of 34.0, but its revenue growth of 36% significantly outpaces the sector average. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.53 is considerably lower than the sector median of 7.5.
What is the outlook for TSM's revenue growth?
Analysts project strong revenue growth for TSM, with the next quarter estimated at +54.00% year-over-year and the current year at +43.00%. The next year's revenue is expected to grow by 35.00%.
Are insiders buying or selling TSM stock?
Insiders are net buyers of TSM stock, with $346.4K in total purchases and $0 in total sales in recent filings, indicating a moderate buy signal.