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As of September 10, 2026, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) trades at $428.03. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $428.03, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $537.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 58 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $419.15.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. NYSE
$428.03
-7.330 (-1.68%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is currently trading at $428.03, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($419.15 and $375.15), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company's recent earnings have consistently beaten estimates, with the latest quarter showing an EPS of $4.31 against an estimate of $3.89, a 10.8% surprise, though the stock saw a 2.77% decline post-earnings. Wall Street analysts maintain a strong Buy consensus with a median price target of $537, representing a 25.5% upside from the current price. The company operates in the Semiconductors industry within the Technology sector, which is currently experiencing significant growth. TSM's revenue growth is projected to be strong, with current year estimates at +43.00% year-over-year. Despite trading at a P/E ratio of 32.06, which is in line with its sector average, the strong forward-looking revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment support its valuation. Insider activity shows a net buying signal, with $346.4K in purchases and no reported sales, further reinforcing confidence in the stock's prospects.
TSM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$426.44
Day Range
$424.05 to $432.53
Prev Close
$435.36
Volume
8.33M
52-Week Range
$225.63 to $479.00
Market Cap
$2.22T
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-0.004897% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
TSM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, TSM beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
TSM Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+25.46% Upside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$537.00
AI Technical Analysis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($419.15 and $375.15), and also above its 20-day exponential moving average ($422.41), signaling an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.69, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is positive at 3.15, suggesting continued bullish pressure. The nearest support level is around the 50-day SMA at $419.15, with resistance potentially near its all-time highs. Volume has been slightly below average recently, at 8.33 million compared to the average of 9.16 million, which warrants monitoring for sustained upward price action. The overall technical picture suggests a stock in a healthy uptrend, with room for further appreciation if key resistance levels are breached.
ProTips
- Monitor geopolitical developments in the Asia-Pacific region, as any escalation could impact TSM's supply chain and operations.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($419.15 and $375.15), indicating a bullish trend; consider positions aligned with this momentum, but be mindful of the neutral RSI suggesting a pause is possible.
- Given the strong analyst conviction and positive revenue growth, consider a strategy that allows for participation in potential upside while managing risk through appropriate stop-loss levels, perhaps 1.5x the daily volatility of approximately 7.9%.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Continued Demand for Advanced Chip Manufacturing
Sustained demand for TSM's cutting-edge chips in sectors like AI, 5G, and high-performance computing is expected to drive revenue growth and support higher valuations.
Source: Industry AnalysisBullish
Positive Insider Buying Signal
Recent insider transactions show net buying activity totaling $346.4K with no reported sales, indicating confidence from management in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong Analyst Consensus and Price Targets
With 20 analysts covering TSM, the consensus is 'Buy' and the median price target of $537 suggests a 25.5% upside potential from the current price.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Geopolitical Tensions
Heightened geopolitical risks in the region could disrupt supply chains, impact manufacturing operations, and lead to increased investor caution.
Source: Geopolitical Risk AssessmentBearish
Intensifying Competition
The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, requiring continuous innovation and significant capital expenditure to maintain market leadership, posing a risk to future margins.
Source: Industry AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) over the next 6-12 months is positive, driven by its dominant position in the semiconductor manufacturing industry and strong projected revenue growth of 43.00% for the current year. With a median analyst target price of $537, the stock has significant upside potential from its current trading level of $428.03. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates and its favorable technical positioning above key moving averages further support this outlook. Potential catalysts for upside include continued demand for advanced chip manufacturing, particularly in AI and high-performance computing, and successful execution of its technology roadmap. Conversely, downside risks could arise from escalating geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains, increased competition from rivals, or a broader economic downturn that reduces demand for electronics. Any significant shift in global trade policies or a slowdown in the semiconductor cycle could alter this positive trajectory.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 11.10T |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.06 |
| EPS (TTM) | 13.52 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8332% |
| 52 Week High | 479.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 225.63 |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) exhibits a P/E ratio of 32.06, which aligns with its sector average. The company's revenue growth is exceptionally strong, projected at 43.00% for the current year, significantly outpacing the sector average of 10.00%. This growth is supported by strong forward-looking revenue estimates, with next year's revenue expected to grow by 34.00%. While the P/E ratio is not low, the exceptional revenue growth and strong analyst conviction suggest that TSM may justify its current valuation. The company's profitability and balance sheet strength, though not detailed, are implicitly supported by the consistent earnings beats and positive analyst outlook. The current price of $428.03 is considered fair value based on the provided data, with a significant upside to the median analyst target price of $537.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) has demonstrated a consistent pattern of beating earnings estimates. In the most recent quarter ending July 16, 2026, the company reported an EPS of $4.31, surpassing the analyst estimate of $3.89 by 10.8%. This follows a trend of positive surprises, including a 26.83% beat in the prior quarter. Despite these earnings beats, the stock experienced a 2.77% decline following the latest earnings report, suggesting market sentiment may be factoring in future growth expectations or broader market conditions.
Key Risks
While TSM shows strong fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment, potential risks include geopolitical tensions in the region, which could impact supply chains and manufacturing operations. Additionally, the company faces intense competition in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space, requiring continuous high investment in research and development. The stock's current valuation, while supported by growth, could be vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment or a slowdown in global technology demand.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 57.69 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 3.15 |
| SMA 50 | 419.15 |
| SMA 200 | 375.15 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($419.15) above the 200-day SMA ($375.15), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.66
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.75
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
TSM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$419.47
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$428.03
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$406.89
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (57.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$440.44
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$461.42
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$482.39
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TSM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TSM in September 2016 would be worth about $150,176 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TSM today could grow to about $44,068 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $180,398 and a bear case around $10,765. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TSM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $775 for TSM by 2030 in the base case, from $428 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $318. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TSM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $318 | $496 | $775 |
| 2028 | $307 | $576 | $1,082 |
| 2029 | $309 | $668 | $1,445 |
| 2030 | $318 | $775 | $1,889 |
| 2031 | $332 | $899 | $2,434 |
| 2032 | $350 | $1,042 | $3,105 |
| 2033 | $372 | $1,209 | $3,931 |
| 2034 | $397 | $1,402 | $4,946 |
| 2035 | $427 | $1,626 | $6,193 |
| 2036 | $461 | $1,886 | $7,722 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TSM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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TSM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$346.4K
5 Transactions
Sold
None
No open-market sells
Insiders
2
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$69.3K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 15 | $5.9K |
| Jul 20, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 10 | $4.1K |
| May 20, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 17 | $6.7K |
| Apr 28, 2026 | TIEN BOR-ZEN
Officer
|
Buy | 20 | $7.8K |
| Mar 31, 2026 | BURNS URSULA M
Director
|
Buy | 1.0K | $322.1K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) stock a buy right now?
Yes, TSM is currently rated as a Buy with a consensus score of 81. Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $537, indicating a 25.5% upside from the current price of $428.03. The stock is trading above key moving averages and shows strong revenue growth projections.
What is TSM's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, TSM's stock price projection for 2030 shows a base case of $774.68, with a downside of $317.68 and an upside of $1889.1. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What is the dividend yield for TSM?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) offers a dividend yield of approximately 0.83%, with a dividend rate of $3.57.
How has TSM performed in recent earnings reports?
TSM has consistently beaten earnings estimates. Most recently, EPS was $4.31 versus an estimate of $3.89 (10.8% surprise), and prior quarters also showed positive surprises, indicating strong operational performance.
What are the key technical indicators for TSM stock?
TSM is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($419.15 and $375.15), with a neutral RSI at 57.7 and a positive MACD, suggesting a current uptrend with neutral momentum.
How does TSM's valuation compare to its sector averages?
TSM's P/E ratio of 32.06 is in line with the sector average. However, its revenue growth significantly outpaces the sector, suggesting strong underlying business performance justifying its valuation.
Are there any significant insider transactions for TSM?
Insider activity indicates a net buying signal, with $346.4K in purchases and no reported sales in recent filings. This suggests a moderate level of insider confidence in the company's prospects.