Stock·NYSE·Technology
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM)
- Market cap
- $2.20T
- P/E
- 27.50
- Dividend yield
- 0.91%
- Street target
- $557.50median of 21 analysts
- 52-week range
- $266.82 $487.47
TSM stock forecast today
Where TSM stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
TSM at a glance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM): Buy, 77/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($398.16 and $434.08).
- Earnings TSM beat estimates in 7 of the 7 reports in our data, yet fell the next day after 6 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders bought $346K and made no open-market sales over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 27.5 against 35.1 for the Technology sector: a discount to peers (-22%).
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) Buy, with a model score of 77/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 20 of 21 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 31.4% above the price. Momentum holds it back most: the MACD line is negative. The trend is mixed: TSM trades 2.24% below its 50-day average of $434.08 and 6.58% above its 200-day average of $398.16. Over the past year the price rose 43.87%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from TSM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
TSM stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
3/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $424.37 is 2.2% below the 50-day simple moving average of $434.08.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 6.6% above the 200-day simple moving average of $398.16.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($434.08) is 9.0% above the 200-day average ($398.16), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 71% of its 52-week range, between $266.82 and $487.47.
TSM share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far TSM has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where TSM sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
TSM fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
4/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 27.50 is 21.6% below the Technology median of 35.1.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 14.50 is 90.8% above the sector median of 7.6.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $77.6B on revenue of $151.7B, a net margin of 51.1%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
TSM beat the EPS estimate in 7 of the 7 reports in our data.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 0.91%, or $3.85 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for TSM.
As of October 26, 2026, TSM trades at $424.37, with a market value of $2.20T, a P/E ratio of 27.50 and a dividend yield of 0.91%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of TSM's valuation, growth and risks.
Looking at earnings, TSM trades at 27.50 times, compared with a Technology sector median of 35.1. That leaves the P/E 21.6% below the median, which is a discount to peers. On sales, the stock is priced at 14.50 times, 90.8% above the sector median of 7.6. To put the earnings figure in context, trailing earnings are $15.43 a share.
The business converts sales into profit at a net margin of 51.12% and an operating margin of 58.66%. It generates a return on equity of 41.85%, above the sector median of 13.4%. The balance sheet and payout round out the picture, with debt-to-equity of 0.12 and a trailing dividend yield of 0.91% ($3.85 a share a year).
$4.60 a share against a $4.52 estimate made the October 15, 2026 report a beat of 1.77%. The stock still fell 2.28% in the next session.
The record is a clean sweep: 7 beats in 7 reports; even so, 6 of those 7 beats were followed by a lower share price the next session. The consensus EPS estimate stands at $17.50 for this fiscal year and $23.39 for next, growth of 64.4% for the current year.
TSM's price typically moves 1.95% on a given day, based on the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns. Its beta against the S&P 500 is 1.24.
TSM against the Technology sector
How TSM compares with the median Technology stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: TSM trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-22%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs XLK: Since May 14, 2025, TSM has gained 117.9% against a gain of 59.2% for XLK.
Performance against XLK
TSM and the Technology sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much TSM sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
The quarterly bars end with Q2 '26 (the quarter to June 30, 2026); TSM reported again on October 15, 2026, and that quarter is not in our statement data yet. The 12-month figures come from the statistics feed and may include it.
Profitable: TSM earned NT$1.70T in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did TSM beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: TSM beat the analyst estimate in 7 of the 7 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 6 of those 7 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026after close | $4.52 | $4.60 | +1.77% | -2.28% | -2.34% |
| Jul 16, 2026after close | $3.89 | $4.31 | +10.80% | -2.77% | +1.43% |
| Apr 16, 2026after close | $3.33 | $3.49 | +4.80% | +1.97% | +5.31% |
| Oct 16, 2025after close | $2.63 | $2.92 | +11.03% | -1.59% | -3.04% |
| Jul 17, 2025after close | $2.31 | $2.47 | +6.93% | -2.12% | -1.63% |
| Apr 17, 2025after close | $2.05 | $2.12 | +3.41% | -2.56% | +8.80% |
| Jan 16, 2025after close | $2.22 | $2.24 | +0.90% | -1.53% | +3.30% |
As of October 26, 2026, TSM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 7 of the 7 reports in our data and fell in the first trading session after 6 of those beats; its latest report, on October 15, 2026, came in 1.77% above the estimate and the stock moved -2.28% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
TSM AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 44.5, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 44.5 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of TSM
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) shows a mixed trend. At $424.37, the stock is 2.24% below its 50-day average of $434.08, yet 6.58% above its 200-day average of $398.16. Near the top of its 52-week range, the price is 12.94% below the high of $487.47 and 59.05% above the low of $266.82.
The recent dip sits within a longer run of gains. Over the past month the price slipped 5.82%, yet it climbed 6.33% over three months and 43.87% over the past year. Last session's volume was 28.3% below its average, even though the price edged up 1.40% that day. Momentum is middling: the 14-day RSI of 44.5 sits in the neutral zone and the MACD line is negative.
New analyst coverage ›
Stifel started coverage at Buy on September 2, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Stifel, September 2, 2026Rating reaffirmed ›
Barclays kept its Overweight rating on October 16, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Barclays, October 16, 2026
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The October 15, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 1.77%, and the share price fell 2.28% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, October 15, 2026
- Two levels are worth tracking. The 50-day SMA at $434.08 sits just above the price, and the 200-day SMA at $398.16 sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 44.5, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- After the October 15, 2026 report the share price fell 2.28% in the first session; TSM beat estimates in 7 of the 7 reports in our data.
TSM sits above its 200-day average of $398.16 but below its 50-day average of $434.08, so the trend reads mixed. A close above the 50-day would bring both averages into an upward signal, while a close below the 200-day would push both into a downward one. Going down, the first support is the 200-day SMA at $398.16; going up, the first hurdle is the 50-day SMA at $434.08.
A 14-day RSI of 44.5 places the stock in the neutral zone, which sits between 40 and 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for TSM, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with TSM at $424.37, its 14-day RSI is 44.5 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $434.08 and its 200-day is $398.16.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What TSM moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, TSM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.65 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.74 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.27 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.16 with gold (XAU).
TSM price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
3/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
20 of 21 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $557.50 is 31.4% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
20 of 21 rate it a buy now, against 18 of 19 three months ago.
TSM Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $424.37, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 16, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Stifel | Initiates | Buy |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Outperform |
As of October 26, 2026, 21 Wall Street analysts cover TSM: 20 rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $440.00 to $1,000.00. The median TSM price target is $557.50, 31.4% above the price of $424.37.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
TSM trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
TSM trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from TSM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much TSM tends to move, against the market and on its own.
TSM price history and drawdowns
TSM's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
4/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.95% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 55.0%, from February 2021 to November 2022, regained by March 2024.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
80% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $172,160, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
TSM Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, TSM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -55.0% (February 2021 to November 2022); it regained that peak by March 2024, 16 months after the low, and 80% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into TSM in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: TSM beat the S&P 500 over this period: $172,160 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in TSM in October 2016 would be worth about $172,160 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to TSM, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +7.62%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -3.76%, up in 4 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +2.31%, up in 6 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, TSM's strongest calendar month has been January (average +7.62%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -3.76%, up in 4 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
TSM stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in TSM, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in TSM today could grow to about $15,360 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $37,561 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $6,281. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.91% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TSM Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $652 for TSM by 2030 in the base case, from $424 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $267. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TSM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $302 | $472 | $739 | |
| 2028 | $279 | $526 | $990 | |
| 2029 | $270 | $586 | $1,270 | |
| 2030 | $267 | $652 | $1,594 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of TSM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
TSM insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
TSM insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider buying: Insiders bought $346K on the open market.
As of October 26, 2026, TSM insiders reported no open-market sales and 5 open-market purchases worth $346K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bor-Zen Tien
Officer
|
Buy | 15 | $5.9K |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Bor-Zen Tien
Officer
|
Buy | 10 | $4.1K |
| May 20, 2026 | Bor-Zen Tien
Officer
|
Buy | 17 | $6.7K |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Bor-Zen Tien
Officer
|
Buy | 20 | $7.8K |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ursula M Burns
Director
|
Buy | 1.0K | $322.1K |
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
TSM stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.