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As of September 26, 2026, Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) trades at $278.07. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $340.00, 22.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $340.00 across 36 analysts. RSI at 70 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $271.01.
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
Texas Instruments Inc. NASDAQ
$278.07
7.420 (2.74%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) is currently trading at $278.07, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($271.01 and $246.23), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company exhibits strong financial health with a profit margin of 31.11% and a return on equity of 35.18%, significantly outpacing sector averages. Revenue growth has been strong at 22.8%, and forward estimates suggest continued expansion. However, a significant concern is the heavy insider selling, with $119.3 million in sales in recent filings, signaling potential caution from management. Wall Street's consensus is a 'Hold' with a median price target of $340, suggesting a 22.3% upside. While the company's fundamentals are strong, the combination of insider selling and a neutral analyst stance warrants a cautious approach.
TXN Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$270.61
Day Range
$269.53 to $278.69
Prev Close
$270.65
Volume
3.96M
52-Week Range
$152.73 to $334.03
Market Cap
$253.95B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+24%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
TXN Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, TXN beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
TXN Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+22.27% Upside
Median of 36 analysts (12-month)
$340.00
AI Technical Analysis
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) is trading above its 50-day SMA of $271.01 and its 200-day SMA of $246.23, indicating an overall bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.53, signaling bullish momentum, and the MACD is positive at 0.76. The stock's current price is also above its 20-day EMA of $267.25. Volume on the latest trading day was 3.96 million shares, below the average of 6.95 million, suggesting reduced conviction behind the recent price action. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA, while resistance may be found near recent highs. The technical setup is generally positive, but the lower volume warrants monitoring for sustained upward movement.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; the recent heavy selling warrants caution despite strong fundamentals.
- Given the premium valuation, any signs of slowing revenue growth or increased competition could trigger a significant price correction.
- Consider the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry when sizing positions in TXN, as demand can fluctuate based on broader economic conditions.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Q2 2026 Earnings Beat
Texas Instruments exceeded Q2 2026 EPS estimates by 10.31% ($2.14 actual vs $1.94 estimate), reinforcing positive earnings momentum.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Positive Forward Revenue Growth Estimates
Analysts project strong revenue growth for Texas Instruments, with current quarter estimates at +25.00% year-over-year and next year's estimates at +14.00%.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold $119.3 million worth of TXN stock across 86 transactions, indicating potential concerns about the current valuation or future prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Mixed Wall Street Consensus
The median analyst price target for TXN is $340, suggesting a 22.3% upside, but the overall consensus rating is 'Hold' with a score of 65, reflecting divided analyst sentiment.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) suggests continued growth, with a median analyst price target of $340 implying a 22.3% upside from the current price. Forward-looking estimates indicate strong revenue growth of 14.00% for next year and an average annual EPS growth rate of 25.4% over the next year, supported by strong profitability and a solid position in the semiconductor market. However, the outlook is tempered by significant insider selling and a 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street. Potential catalysts for upside include continued strong demand for its analog and embedded processing chips, successful new product introductions, and favorable macroeconomic conditions for the technology sector. Conversely, downside risks include increased competition, cyclical downturns in the semiconductor industry, and a potential re-rating of its premium valuation if growth falters.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 253.95B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.20 |
| EPS (TTM) | 6.59 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
| 52 Week High | 334.03 |
| 52 Week Low | 152.73 |
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) presents a mixed valuation picture, with a P/E ratio of 42.2, which is above the sector median of 34. However, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 13.05 is also higher than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting a premium valuation. The company boasts impressive profitability with a net profit margin of 31.11% and an operating margin of 42.58%, significantly outperforming the sector's median ROE of 13.4% and its own ROE of 35.18%. Despite the premium valuation, the company's strong revenue growth of 22.8% and strong forward estimates for EPS and revenue growth support its current price. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 is within the sector average range. The key question is whether the company's exceptional profitability and growth justify its current valuation, especially in light of significant insider selling.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $2.14, beating the estimate of $1.94 by 10.31%. This followed a strong beat in the prior quarter (March 2026) where EPS was $1.68 against an estimate of $1.37. However, the company has a history of mixed performance, including a significant EPS miss in the quarter ending March 2026, where actual EPS was -$1.00 against an estimate of -$0.40. Revenue growth for the current quarter is estimated at +25.00% year-over-year, and forward estimates for the next year project 14.00% revenue growth. The company's ability to consistently meet or exceed earnings expectations will be critical for sustaining its valuation.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) is the significant insider selling totaling $119.3 million, which could indicate a lack of confidence from management regarding future performance or valuation. The company's P/E ratio of 42.2 is also notably higher than the sector median of 34, exposing it to potential valuation compression if growth expectations are not met. Also, the semiconductor industry is cyclical and subject to intense competition, which could impact future revenue and profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 69.53 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.76 |
| SMA 50 | 271.01 |
| SMA 200 | 246.23 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($271.01) above the 200-day SMA ($246.23), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.56
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.58
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with TXN? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
TXN Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$275.29
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$278.07
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$261.25
MAX LOSS
-5.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (69.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$283.55
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$289.05
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$297.31
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TXN is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TXN in September 2016 would be worth about $40,642 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TXN today could grow to about $28,193 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $101,904 and a bear case around $7,800. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TXN Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $421 for TXN by 2030 in the base case, from $278 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $187. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TXN's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $205 | $308 | $463 |
| 2028 | $193 | $342 | $608 |
| 2029 | $188 | $379 | $767 |
| 2030 | $187 | $421 | $949 |
| 2031 | $188 | $467 | $1,158 |
| 2032 | $191 | $518 | $1,401 |
| 2033 | $196 | $574 | $1,683 |
| 2034 | $202 | $637 | $2,011 |
| 2035 | $209 | $707 | $2,392 |
| 2036 | $217 | $784 | $2,834 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TXN's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
TXN Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$119.3M
31 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2021 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 337.5K | $57.9M |
| Feb 1, 2021 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 334.6K | $56.3M |
| Jan 28, 2020 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 405.0K | $52.1M |
| Feb 24, 2025 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 194.0K | $39.3M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 194.0K | $38.6M |
| Apr 30, 2024 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 208.0K | $37.1M |
| May 2, 2024 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 208.0K | $36.5M |
| Jan 31, 2020 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 212.6K | $26.4M |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 101.6K | $19.8M |
| May 3, 2024 | TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 100.4K | $17.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Texas Instruments' (TXN) current stock price and consensus rating?
As of September 26, 2026, Texas Instruments (TXN) is trading at $278.07. The current consensus rating among analysts is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 59 out of 100.
What is the fair value and upside potential for TXN stock?
The calculated fair value for Texas Instruments (TXN) is $340.00, suggesting an upside potential of 22.3% from its current price. This is based on the median analyst price target.
How has Texas Instruments performed in its recent earnings reports?
Texas Instruments (TXN) recently beat earnings expectations for the quarter ending June 2026 with an EPS of $2.14 versus an estimate of $1.94. However, the company has a mixed history of earnings surprises, including a significant miss in the March 2026 quarter.
What are the key technical indicators for TXN stock?
TXN is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($271.01 and $246.23), with an RSI at 69.5 indicating bullish momentum. The MACD is also positive, suggesting a generally bullish technical outlook, though recent volume has been below average.
What is the outlook for Texas Instruments' revenue growth?
Texas Instruments (TXN) reported 22.8% revenue growth and is projected to see continued expansion, with current quarter revenue estimates up 25.00% year-over-year and next year's revenue growth estimated at 14.00%.
Are there any significant insider transactions for TXN stock?
Yes, insiders at Texas Instruments (TXN) have been net sellers, with $119.3 million in total sales in recent filings, indicating heavy selling pressure from management.
How does TXN compare to its sector averages?
Texas Instruments (TXN) shows a higher P/E ratio (42.2 vs 34) and P/S ratio (13.05 vs 7.5) compared to the Technology sector median. However, its ROE (35.18%) and profit margin (31.11%) significantly outperform sector medians (13.4% and N/A respectively).
What is TXN stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Texas Instruments (TXN) has a base case forecast of $420.93 for 2030, with a downside projection of $186.75 and an upside projection of $948.75. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.