CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Roger Wohlner, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is trading at $533.69, above its 50-day SMA of $503.91 and 200-day SMA of $434.78, indicating a positive technical trend. The company's consistent revenue growth, projected at 18.00% for the next year, coupled with strong profit margins of 40.31%, underpins its fundamental strength. Analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $586.00, suggesting a 9.8% upside from current levels. A primary risk to monitor is the significant insider selling, with total sales amounting to $252.7 million against $2 million in purchases, signaling a 'Heavy Sell Signal' according to insider transaction data. While the company exhibits strong financial health and growth prospects, this insider activity warrants investor attention.
MSFT at a glance
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Buy, 79/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendUp: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($503.91 and $434.78).
EarningsMSFT beat estimates in 5 of its last 5 quarters, yet fell the next day after 3 of those beats.
InsidersInsiders sold $252.7M and bought $2.0M over the last 18 months.
ValuationP/E of 30.3 against 34.0 for the Technology sector: broadly in line with peers (-11%).
As of October 15, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trades at $533.69. Wall Street's consensus target is $586.00 across 56 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 62, showing bullish momentum without being overbought, and the price is above its 50-day simple moving average of $503.91.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MSFT's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-11% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
MSFT Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 5 quarters, MSFT beat the analyst estimate 5 times; the stock fell in the first session after 3 of those beats.
MSFT earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Jul 29, 2026
$4.24
$4.74
+11.79%
+15.51%
+24.82%
Apr 29, 2026
$4.07
$4.27
+4.91%
-3.93%
-2.47%
Jan 28, 2026
$3.92
$4.14
+5.61%
-9.99%
-14.00%
Oct 29, 2025
$3.66
$4.13
+12.84%
-2.92%
-6.35%
Jul 30, 2025
$3.38
$3.65
+7.99%
+3.95%
+2.28%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 15, 2026, MSFT has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 5 of its last 5 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 3 of those beats; its latest report, on July 29, 2026, came in 11.79% above the estimate and the stock moved +15.51% in the first session.
MSFT Analysis
Company's Health4/5
12-Month Analyst Target+9.80% above price
Median of 56 analysts (12-month)
$586.00
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreBuy
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is trading above its 50-day SMA of $503.91 and its 200-day SMA of $434.78, indicating a bullish trend. The 14-day RSI is at 62.45, reflecting bullish momentum, and the MACD at 12.04 further supports positive sentiment. The stock is also trading above its 20-day EMA of $520.03. Key support levels are suggested by the moving averages, while resistance may be encountered near the current trading range. Volume has been slightly above average, with the latest volume at 22.2 million compared to an average of 20.5 million, indicating sustained interest. The overall chart structure points to continued upward potential, provided the current momentum holds.
ProTips
Monitor insider selling activity closely, as the current 'Heavy Sell Signal' with over $252 million in dispositions warrants attention despite strong company fundamentals.
Microsoft's stock is trading above its key moving averages (50-day SMA $503.91, 200-day SMA $434.78), indicating a bullish trend. Consider positions aligned with this upward momentum.
Key Catalysts
BullishStrong Q3 2026 Earnings Beat
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported Q3 2026 EPS of $4.74, exceeding estimates by 11.79% and driving a 15.51% stock price increase, signaling strong operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings Report
BullishPositive Analyst Sentiment and Upgrades
Analysts from firms like Stifel have upgraded MSFT to 'Buy', contributing to a strong 'Buy' consensus among 56 analysts and reinforcing positive market sentiment.
Source: Analyst Ratings
BullishProjected Revenue Growth
Revenue is estimated to grow by 18.00% in the next fiscal year, reaching $391.3 billion, supported by strong performance in cloud and AI segments.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
BearishSignificant Insider Selling
Insiders have sold approximately $252.7 million worth of stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $2 million, triggering a 'Heavy Sell Signal' and raising concerns about management's outlook.
Source: Insider Transaction Data
NeutralMedian Analyst Price Target $586.00
The median analyst price target for MSFT is $586.00, indicating a potential 9.8% upside from the current price, suggesting a balanced view on future performance.
Source: Wall Street Summary
Market Outlook
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with analysts projecting revenue to reach $391.3 billion in the current fiscal year, an 18.00% increase year-over-year. The median analyst price target of $586.00 suggests a modest upside from the current price, reflecting confidence in sustained performance. The company's strong cloud computing segment and AI initiatives are key drivers for future expansion. Potential upside catalysts include further advancements and market adoption of its AI technologies and continued strength in its Azure cloud platform. Conversely, increased regulatory scrutiny, intensified competition from cloud rivals like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud, or a significant slowdown in enterprise spending could negatively impact the outlook. The substantial insider selling also remains a factor to monitor for potential shifts in management sentiment.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
3.96T
P/E Ratio
30.28
EPS (TTM)
17.95
Dividend Yield
0.69%
52 Week High
553.72
52 Week Low
349.20
As of October 15, 2026, MSFT trades at $533.69, with a market value of $3.96T, a P/E ratio of 30.28 and a dividend yield of 0.69%.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) exhibits strong fundamentals, with a P/E ratio of 30.28, which is below the technology sector median of 34.00, suggesting a potential valuation discount relative to peers. The company boasts an impressive return on equity of 34.04% and a profit margin of 40.31%, significantly outperforming the sector averages. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, Microsoft maintains a healthy balance sheet. The company's strong profitability and efficient operations, as evidenced by its operating margin of 45.11%, provide a solid foundation for its current valuation and future growth prospects. Revenue growth is projected at 18.00% for the next year, aligning with its historical performance.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) most recently reported earnings on July 29, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations with an EPS of $4.74 against an estimate of $4.24, a surprise of 11.79%, leading to a 15.51% price increase. This follows a pattern of earnings beats, with the company also surpassing estimates in its January and April 2026 reports, though with varying price reactions. The consistent ability to beat EPS estimates suggests strong operational execution and effective management.
Key Risks
Significant insider selling, totaling $252.7 million against $2 million in purchases, presents a notable risk. an insider's fundamentals and technicals remain strong, this heavy selling pressure warrants close observation. Additionally, the company operates in a highly competitive technology sector, where rapid innovation and market shifts could pose challenges to sustained growth.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
62.45
MACD (12, 26)
12.04
SMA (50-day)
503.91
SMA (200-day)
434.78
Technical RatingBullish
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($503.91) above the 200-day SMA ($434.78), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
As of October 15, 2026, with MSFT at $533.69, its 14-day RSI is 62.5 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $503.91 and its 200-day is $434.78.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.54
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.53
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.30
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.05
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, MSFT's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.54 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.53 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.30 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.05 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MSFT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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MSFT Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $440.00Median $586.00 (+9.8%)High $870.00
Ratings
Buy 53Hold 3Sell 03 months ago: 54 of 57 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on MSFT
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Oct 13, 2026
Barclays
Maintains
Overweight
Oct 7, 2026
Evercore ISI Group
Maintains
Outperform
Oct 5, 2026
Scotiabank
Maintains
Sector Outperform
Oct 1, 2026
Wells Fargo
Maintains
Overweight
Sep 30, 2026
Piper Sandler
Maintains
Overweight
Sep 23, 2026
Stifel
Upgrade
Buy
As of October 15, 2026, 56 Wall Street analysts cover MSFT: 53 rate it a buy or strong buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $440.00 to $870.00, with a median of $586.00, 9.8% above the price of $533.69.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
MSFT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$523.02
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$533.69
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$503.56
MAX LOSS
-3.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (62.5) and current market volatility
These levels come from MSFT's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MSFT in October 2016 would be worth about $93,270 today, compared with about $36,237 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
Compare with Another Ticker
MSFT Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-34.5%
November 2021 to January 2023
Recovery
6 months
back at the old peak by June 2023
From the 10-year high
-1.8%
highest close, October 2026
1-year holds that gained
83%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, MSFT's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -34.5% (November 2021 to January 2023); it regained that peak by June 2023, 6 months after the low, and 83% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MSFT today could grow to about $28,161 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $86,700 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $9,147. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.69% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MSFT Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $808 for MSFT by 2030 in the base case, from $534 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $397. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MSFT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
MSFT simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$415
$592
$845
2028
$397
$656
$1,085
2029
$393
$728
$1,348
2030
$397
$808
$1,644
2031
$404
$896
$1,984
Method: a lognormal simulation of MSFT's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 15, 2026, MSFT insiders reported 20 open-market sales worth $252.7M and 1 open-market purchase worth $2.0M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in MSFT
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Sep 14, 2026
HOOD AMY E
Chief Financial Officer
Sell
41.7K
$20.8M
Sep 9, 2026
SMITH BRADFORD LEE
Officer
Grant
14.0K
-
Sep 4, 2026
LIST-STOLL TERI L.
Director
Grant
125
-
Sep 4, 2026
SCHARF CHARLES W
Director
Grant
125
-
Sep 4, 2026
STANTON JOHN W.
Director
Grant
125
-
Sep 1, 2026
NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
86.5K
$43.4M
Aug 31, 2026
ALTHOFF JUDSON
Officer
Grant
29.7K
-
Aug 31, 2026
HOOD AMY E
Chief Financial Officer
Grant
31.3K
-
Aug 31, 2026
JOLLA ALICE L
Officer
Grant
5.6K
-
Aug 31, 2026
NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
Grant
178.6K
-
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Frequently Asked Questions
How are Microsoft's recent earnings?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) recently reported earnings on July 29, 2026, with an EPS of $4.74, beating the estimate of $4.24 by 11.79%. This positive surprise led to a 15.51% increase in the stock price, continuing a trend of earnings beats.
What is Microsoft's long-term outlook?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a positive long-term outlook, driven by consistent revenue growth projected at 18.00% for the next year and strong profitability. Analysts forecast earnings per share to reach $23.68 in the next fiscal year and project an average annual growth rate of 18.9% over the next five years.
What are the main risks for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)?
A significant risk for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the heavy insider selling, with $252.7M in total sales versus $2.0M in total purchases, indicating potential management concerns. Competitive pressures within the technology sector and the need for continuous innovation also present ongoing risks.
How does Microsoft's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a P/E ratio of 30.28, which is below the technology sector median of 34.00. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 12.16 is higher than the sector median of 7.50. The company's strong return on equity (34.04%) and profit margin (40.31%) significantly outperform sector averages.
What is the current technical momentum for MSFT stock?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is exhibiting bullish technical momentum. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($503.91 and $434.78), and its 14-day RSI is at 62.45, indicating positive sentiment and strength in the current trend.
Does MSFT pay a dividend?
Yes. As of October 15, 2026, MSFT's dividend yield is 0.69%, or about $3.71 per share a year at the current price of $533.69. Yields move with the share price and with changes to the payout.
Are insiders buying or selling MSFT?
Selling, on balance. In the last 18 months, MSFT's officers, directors and large holders reported 20 sales worth $252.7M and 1 open-market purchase worth $2.0M. Grants and option exercises are not counted as buying.
What is the analyst price target for MSFT?
As of October 15, 2026, the 56 Wall Street analysts covering MSFT have 12-month targets from $440.00 to $870.00, with a median of $586.00, 9.8% above the current price of $533.69. 53 rate it a buy or strong buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 54 of 57 rated it a buy.
What is MSFT's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -34.5%, from November 2021 to January 2023. It regained that peak by June 2023, 6 months after the low. Over the same period, 83% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are MSFT's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, May has been MSFT's strongest month on average (+5.09%, rising in 7 of 10 years) and February its weakest (-2.62%, rising in 5 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
