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As of September 26, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trades at $516.17. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $555.00, 7.5% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $555.00 across 55 analysts. RSI at 60 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $475.81.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ
$516.17
18.24 (3.66%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is currently trading at $516.17, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($475.81 and $432.06), signaling a bullish technical trend. The company has demonstrated consistent earnings beats, with the latest quarter to June 2026 exceeding estimates by 11.79% and driving a 15.51% price increase. Analysts maintain a strong 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $555.00, implying a 7.5% upside from current levels. Fundamental analysis reveals Microsoft's strong financial health, with a profit margin of 40.31% and a return on equity of 34.04%, significantly outperforming sector averages. Revenue growth stands at 17.7%, with forward estimates projecting continued strength. The company's balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, well within industry norms. Despite a heavy sell signal from insider transactions totaling $252.7 million in sales, the overall analyst sentiment and strong financial performance suggest resilience.
MSFT Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$499.04
Day Range
$497.25 to $519.40
Prev Close
$497.93
Volume
38.15M
52-Week Range
$349.20 to $553.72
Market Cap
$3.83T
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-16% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
MSFT Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, MSFT beat estimates 5 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
MSFT Analysis
Company's Health
5/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+7.52% Upside
Median of 55 analysts (12-month)
$555.00
AI Technical Analysis
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($475.81 and $432.06), indicating a positive medium to long-term trend. The RSI is at 59.89, reflecting neutral momentum, while the MACD at 6.78 suggests underlying bullish pressure. The stock's current price is also above its 20-day EMA ($497.30), reinforcing the bullish short-term outlook. Volume has been notably strong, with the latest volume of 38.15 million shares significantly exceeding the average of 23.89 million, suggesting increased investor interest. Key support levels are found around the 50-day SMA, while the current price action indicates potential for further upside towards analyst targets. The stochastic oscillator is at 90.33, suggesting the stock may be approaching overbought territory, warranting a degree of caution for aggressive short-term trades.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling trends closely, as the recent $252.7 million in dispositions signals potential caution from management.
- The stock is trading above key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMA) with strong volume, indicating positive technical momentum.
- Consider position sizing carefully given the stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought levels at 90.33, suggesting a potential for a short-term pullback.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Q2 2026 Earnings Beat
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported EPS of $4.74 for the quarter to June 2026, exceeding estimates by 11.79% and driving a 15.51% stock price increase.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
The majority of analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $555.00, indicating a 7.5% potential upside from current levels.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Forward revenue estimates show strong growth, with next year projected at $467.3 billion, a 20.00% increase year-over-year, supported by continued demand in cloud and AI services.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Significant Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold a total of $252.7 million in stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $2 million, resulting in a 'Heavy Sell Signal'.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBearish
Stochastic Oscillator Nearing Overbought Levels
The stochastic oscillator is at 90.33, indicating that the stock may be approaching overbought territory, which could precede a short-term price correction.
Source: Technical Analysis IndicatorsMarket Outlook
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, driven by strong fundamental performance and positive analyst sentiment. The median analyst target price of $555.00 suggests a 7.5% upside from the current price of $516.17. The company's consistent revenue growth, projected at 20.00% for next year, coupled with its high profitability and solid balance sheet, provides a strong foundation for continued market leadership. Potential catalysts include ongoing innovation in cloud computing and AI, which are reflected in strong forward revenue estimates. However, investors should monitor insider selling activity, as $252.7 million in sales has been reported, alongside the stock approaching overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator. A significant downside risk could materialize if these insider selling trends accelerate or if broader market sentiment shifts negatively.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 3.83T |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.72 |
| EPS (TTM) | 17.97 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.72% |
| 52 Week High | 553.72 |
| 52 Week Low | 349.20 |
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) presents a strong valuation case, trading at a P/E ratio of 28.72, which is below the sector median of 34.0. Its price-to-sales ratio of 11.55 is higher than the sector median of 7.5, but this is justified by its superior profitability and growth metrics. The company boasts an impressive profit margin of 40.31% and an operating margin of 45.11%, significantly outperforming the sector's average ROE of 13.4%. The company's financial health is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, indicating conservative leverage. Revenue growth of 17.7% is strong, and forward estimates suggest continued expansion. While the P/E ratio is not exceptionally low, the company's high profitability, consistent revenue growth, and strong balance sheet support its current valuation and provide a solid foundation for future performance.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a consistent track record of exceeding earnings expectations. The most recent quarter to June 2026 saw EPS of $4.74, beating the estimate of $4.24 by 11.79% and resulting in a significant 15.51% stock price increase. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, although the stock experienced pullbacks in some instances, such as a 9.99% decrease following the quarter to December 2025 results despite a 5.61% EPS beat. Forward earnings estimates remain positive, with the current year expected to reach $19.76 per share, up from $17.28 a year ago. Revenue growth is also projected to remain strong, with the next year's estimate at $467.3 billion, a 20.00% increase year-over-year. This consistent earnings performance and positive outlook confirm the company's operational strength.
Key Risks
A significant risk for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stems from insider selling, with total sales reaching $252.7 million against only $2 million in purchases, indicating a 'Heavy Sell Signal' from management. While the stock is trading above key moving averages and analyst targets remain positive, this level of insider divestiture warrants attention. Additionally, the stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought territory at 90.33, suggesting a potential for short-term pullback or consolidation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 59.89 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 6.78 |
| SMA 50 | 475.81 |
| SMA 200 | 432.06 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($475.81) above the 200-day SMA ($432.06), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.55
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MSFT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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MSFT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$505.85
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$516.17
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$470.44
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (59.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$531.14
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$556.43
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$581.72
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MSFT is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MSFT in September 2016 would be worth about $90,715 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MSFT today could grow to about $38,215 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $117,522 and a bear case around $12,426. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MSFT Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $882 for MSFT by 2030 in the base case, from $516 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $434. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MSFT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $414 | $590 | $842 |
| 2028 | $408 | $675 | $1,115 |
| 2029 | $417 | $772 | $1,428 |
| 2030 | $434 | $882 | $1,796 |
| 2031 | $456 | $1,009 | $2,233 |
| 2032 | $483 | $1,154 | $2,755 |
| 2033 | $515 | $1,319 | $3,377 |
| 2034 | $552 | $1,509 | $4,121 |
| 2035 | $594 | $1,725 | $5,008 |
| 2036 | $641 | $1,973 | $6,066 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MSFT's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
MSFT Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$2.0M
1 Transactions
Sold
$252.7M
20 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$12.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2021 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 838.6K | $285.3M |
| Sep 3, 2025 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 149.2K | $75.3M |
| Mar 2, 2021 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 278.7K | $65.4M |
| Mar 3, 2020 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 280.2K | $47.2M |
| Nov 5, 2020 | SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
|
Sell | 200.0K | $44.5M |
| Sep 1, 2026 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 86.5K | $43.4M |
| May 5, 2025 | SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
|
Sell | 81.0K | $35.3M |
| Sep 4, 2024 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 78.4K | $32.0M |
| Apr 30, 2019 | SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
|
Sell | 192.3K | $25.1M |
| Nov 5, 2020 | NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 104.5K | $23.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock a buy right now?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is currently rated a 'Buy' with a consensus score of 79 out of 100. Analysts have a median price target of $555.00, suggesting a 7.5% upside from the current price of $516.17. The stock is trading above key moving averages and has a history of beating earnings estimates.
What is MSFT's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Microsoft Corporation's (MSFT) projected base case price for 2030 is $882.44, with a downside projection of $433.63 and an upside projection of $1795.78. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
How is Microsoft Corporation's financial health?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) demonstrates strong financial health with a profit margin of 40.31%, a return on equity of 34.04%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. These metrics indicate strong profitability and conservative leverage, outperforming sector averages.
What is the revenue growth outlook for Microsoft?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported 17.7% revenue growth and is projected to continue this trend, with estimates for the next year showing a 20.00% increase to $467.3 billion. The current quarter's revenue growth is estimated at +17.00% year-over-year.
What are the key risks facing Microsoft Corporation?
The primary risks for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) include significant insider selling totaling $252.7 million, which has triggered a 'Heavy Sell Signal'. Additionally, the stock's stochastic oscillator is nearing overbought levels at 90.33, suggesting a potential for a short-term correction.
How does Microsoft's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a P/E ratio of 28.72, which is below the sector median of 34.0. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 11.55 is above the sector median of 7.5. MSFT's superior profit margins and ROE justify its valuation premium in certain metrics.
What was Microsoft's most recent earnings performance?
In the quarter to June 2026, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported EPS of $4.74, exceeding analyst estimates of $4.24 by 11.79%. This earnings beat led to a 15.51% increase in the stock price.