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As of September 23, 2026, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) trades at $85.82. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $110.00, 28.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $110.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 43 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $88.37.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. NASDAQ
$85.82
2.940 (3.55%)
At close: Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is currently trading at $85.82, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($88.37 and $91.36), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The company's fundamentals remain relatively strong, with a profit margin of 14.27% and a revenue growth rate of 8.1%, which aligns with the sector median. However, recent insider activity shows a net seller position, with $27.5 million in sales versus no reported purchases, signaling a degree of caution from management. Despite these near-term technical and insider concerns, O'an insider's long-term prospects appear stable, supported by consistent revenue growth estimates and a solid market position within the auto parts sector. The company's fair value is estimated at $110.00, offering a potential upside of 28.2% based on Wall Street's median price target. Investors should monitor the stock's ability to reclaim its key moving averages as a sign of renewed bullish momentum.
ORLY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$83.93
Day Range
$83.93 to $87.02
Prev Close
$82.88
Volume
9.52M
52-Week Range
$82.59 to $108.72
Market Cap
$69.43B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs VCR
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+26%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
ORLY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ORLY beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
ORLY Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+28.18% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$110.00
AI Technical Analysis
Volume has increased by 23.5% above its average, signaling heightened trading activity as O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($88.37 and $91.36). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.37, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is negative at -1.33, suggesting a bearish trend. The current price of $85.82 is below the 50-day SMA of $88.37 and the 200-day SMA of $91.36, positioning these averages as resistance. The chart structure suggests a near-term bearish bias, with the price action failing to break above key technical levels. The neutral RSI and negative MACD further support this view. Investors should watch for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA as a potential signal of a trend reversal, while sustained trading below these averages could lead to further downside pressure.
ProTips
- Monitor O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s ability to reclaim its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as sustained trading below these levels indicates bearish momentum.
- Given the moderate insider selling, investors should pay close attention to any future insider transactions for further clues on management's confidence.
- Consider the company's premium valuation relative to sector peers and its negative return on equity as key factors in assessing risk-reward.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Reclaiming Key Moving Averages
A sustained move above the 50-day SMA ($88.37) and subsequently the 200-day SMA ($91.36) would signal a potential reversal of the current bearish technical trend.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Continued Insider Selling Pressure
Ongoing net selling by insiders, particularly officers, totaling $27.5 million, could indicate a lack of confidence and potentially weigh on future price performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Positive Earnings Surprises
Future earnings reports that significantly beat analyst estimates could provide a catalyst for upward price movement, especially if accompanied by strong forward guidance.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Sector Performance
The overall performance of the Consumer Cyclical sector and the auto parts industry will influence O'Reilly Automotive's stock price, irrespective of company-specific news.
Source: Sector AnalysisMarket Outlook
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory over the next 6-12 months, with analysts forecasting revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 11.3% for the next. The median analyst price target of $110.00 suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current price, indicating a bullish long-term view despite current technical challenges. The company's strong profit margins and minimal debt provide a stable foundation for this outlook. Potential catalysts for upside include a successful re-establishment of trading above key moving averages and continued market share gains in the resilient auto parts sector. Conversely, downside risks include persistent insider selling, a failure to break out of the current technical downtrend, and increased competition within the industry. Any significant deterioration in the company's negative return on equity could also weigh on investor sentiment.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 69.43B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.31 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.15 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 108.72 |
| 52 Week Low | 82.59 |
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) presents a mixed valuation picture, with a P/E ratio of 26.31, which is above the sector median of 20.8, suggesting it trades at a premium. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.61, also higher than the sector average of 1.9. The company's profit margin is a healthy 14.27%, and its operating margin is 20.15%, indicating strong operational efficiency. Despite the premium valuation, O'Reilly Automotive's balance sheet shows a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.05, indicating minimal leverage and a strong financial position. The company's return on equity is reported as -332.51%, which is significantly below the sector average of 12.4, suggesting potential issues with profitability relative to shareholder equity. This discrepancy warrants further investigation into the drivers of the negative ROE.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) reported mixed results in its most recent quarters. The quarter to June 2026 saw actual EPS of $0.86, matching the estimate with no surprise, and resulted in a price decrease of 3.61%. However, the prior quarter to March 2026 showed a slight beat with EPS of $0.72 against an estimate of $0.70, leading to a positive price reaction of 8.41%. The company's revenue growth is projected to be around 6.00% to 7.00% for the current and next year, indicating steady expansion.
Key Risks
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) faces moderate risks including a premium valuation relative to its sector peers and a negative return on equity. Recent insider activity indicates a net selling trend, with significant sales by officers, which could signal a lack of near-term confidence. Also, the stock is currently trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting potential for further technical downside.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 43.37 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.33 |
| SMA 50 | 88.37 |
| SMA 200 | 91.36 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $88.37, 200-day: $91.36), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.12
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with ORLY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
ORLY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$84.96
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$85.82
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$80.27
MAX LOSS
-5.5%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (43.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$87.51
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$89.21
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$91.76
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ORLY is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 23, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ORLY in September 2016 would be worth about $45,686 today, compared with about $35,806 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ORLY today could grow to about $29,661 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $89,086 and a bear case around $9,876. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ORLY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $133 for ORLY by 2030 in the base case, from $85.82 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $66.13. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ORLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $67.57 | $95.68 | $135 |
| 2028 | $65.23 | $107 | $174 |
| 2029 | $65.11 | $119 | $217 |
| 2030 | $66.13 | $133 | $266 |
| 2031 | $67.91 | $148 | $322 |
| 2032 | $70.30 | $165 | $386 |
| 2033 | $73.20 | $184 | $461 |
| 2034 | $76.59 | $205 | $548 |
| 2035 | $80.44 | $228 | $648 |
| 2036 | $84.76 | $255 | $765 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ORLY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
ORLY Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$27.5M
20 Transactions
Insiders
19
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024 | JOHNSON GREGORY DALE
Officer
|
Sell | 32.3K | $34.8M |
| May 6, 2021 | O'REILLY DAVID E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 55.0K | $30.7M |
| Aug 14, 2024 | O'REILLY DAVID E
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 23.0K | $25.9M |
| May 3, 2023 | O'REILLY DAVID E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 27.0K | $25.1M |
| Nov 1, 2022 | O'REILLY DAVID E
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 25.0K | $20.9M |
| Jul 30, 2024 | HENSLEE GREGORY L
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 18.3K | $20.6M |
| Jun 17, 2021 | O'REILLY DAVID E
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 37.4K | $20.0M |
| Feb 14, 2024 | JOHNSON GREGORY DALE
Officer
|
Sell | 18.7K | $19.4M |
| May 2, 2023 | MCFALL THOMAS G
Officer
|
Sell | 20.8K | $19.3M |
| Jul 31, 2024 | JOHNSON GREGORY DALE
Director
|
Sell | 15.4K | $17.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock a buy right now?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is currently rated as a Hold with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $110.00, offering a 28.2% upside, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits moderate insider selling, suggesting caution is warranted.
What is O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s fair value?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s fair value is estimated at $110.00, based on a combination of analyst price targets and internal valuation models. This suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current price of $85.82.
What are the biggest risks for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock?
Key risks for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) include its premium valuation compared to sector averages, a negative return on equity, and recent insider selling activity. Additionally, the stock's current technical position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($88.37 and $91.36) presents near-term downside risk.
How is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. performing financially?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) demonstrates strong operational efficiency with a profit margin of 14.27% and an operating margin of 20.15%. Revenue growth is projected at 8.1% for the current period. However, the company's return on equity is significantly negative at -332.51%, which is a notable concern.
What is the outlook for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. in the next year?
The outlook for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is cautiously optimistic, with analysts projecting revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 11.3% for next year. The median analyst price target of $110.00 suggests potential upside, but near-term technical weakness and insider selling warrant monitoring.
What is O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s (ORLY) stock forecast for 2030 includes a base case price of $132.58 and a downside projection of $66.13. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How does O'Reilly Automotive Inc. compare to its sector averages?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) trades at a higher P/E ratio (26.31 vs 20.8) and price-to-sales ratio (3.61 vs 1.9) than the sector median. Its revenue growth of 8.1% slightly exceeds the sector average of 7.2%, but its return on equity of -332.51% is significantly worse than the sector's 12.4%.