Stock·NASDAQ·Consumer Cyclical
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)
- Market cap
- $72.22B
- P/E
- 27.92
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- Street target
- $109.00median of 29 analysts
- 52-week range
- $82.59 $102.46
The short version
Where ORLY stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
ORLY at a glance
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY): Hold, 54/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 50-day but below its 200-day moving average ($87.55 and $90.67).
- Earnings ORLY beat estimates in 1 of its last 5 quarters, and the stock rose the next day every time.
- Insiders Insiders sold $27.5M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 27.9 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a premium to peers (+34%).
Figures as of October 17, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) Hold, with a model score of 54/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 23 of 29 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 22.1% above the price. Valuation holds it back most: the P/E of 27.92 is 34.2% above the sector median (a premium to peers) and the P/S of 3.85 is 102.6% above the sector median. The trend is mixed: ORLY trades 1.97% above its 50-day average of $87.55 and 1.54% below its 200-day average of $90.67. Over the past year the price fell 11.76%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from ORLY's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
1/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $89.27 is 2.0% above the 50-day simple moving average of $87.55.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 1.5% below the 200-day simple moving average of $90.67.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($87.55) is 3.4% below the 200-day average ($90.67), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 34% of its 52-week range, between $82.59 and $102.46.
ORLY share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far ORLY has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where ORLY sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 27.92 is 34.2% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 3.85 is 102.9% above the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $2.7B on revenue of $18.6B, a net margin of 14.3%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
ORLY beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 5 reports.
Key statistics
The headline figures for ORLY.
As of October 17, 2026, ORLY trades at $89.27, with a market value of $72.22B and a P/E ratio of 27.92.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of ORLY's valuation, growth and risks.
ORLY's P/E of 27.92 is 34.2% above the 20.8 median for Consumer Cyclical stocks, so the P/E is a premium to peers. On sales, the stock trades at 3.85 times, which is 102.6% above the sector median of 1.9. Its market capitalisation is $72.2B and its trailing earnings are $3.17 a share.
With revenue growth of 8.10%, ORLY is 0.9 percentage points faster than the sector median of 7.2%. ORLY turns sales into profit at a net margin of 14.27% and an operating margin of 20.15%, alongside a return on equity of -332.51%, below the sector median of 12.4%. No dividend is reported in our data.
$0.86 a share against a $0.86 estimate made the July 29, 2026 report a miss of 0.00%. The market agreed: the stock fell 3.61% the following session.
Over its last 5 reports, ORLY topped the estimate 1 times, and every one of those beats was followed by a gain the next day. The largest of the earlier reactions came after the April 29, 2026 report, which beat the estimate by 2.86% while the stock rose 8.41%. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $3.28 this fiscal year (growth of 10.4%) and $3.65 the year after (growth of 11.2%).
At a P/E of 27.92, which is 34.2% above the sector median, ORLY is a premium to peers, and weaker results would be measured against a higher bar. The price of ORLY typically moves by 1.33% a day, based on the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns. Insiders sold $27.5M over the last 18 months and bought none on the open market. Those sales are often planned in advance, so they tell less than purchases would.
ORLY against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How ORLY compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: ORLY trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+34%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
Return vs SPY: Since May 6, 2025, ORLY has lost 3.4% against a gain of 36.6% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
ORLY and the Consumer Cyclical sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much ORLY sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 6.4% in FY2025 to $17.8B, from $16.7B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 14.3% in FY2025, down from 14.3% the year before.
Profitable: ORLY earned $2.5B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did ORLY beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: ORLY beat the analyst estimate in 1 of the last 5 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock rose in the first session after every beat.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026after close | $0.86 | $0.86 | +0.00% | -3.61% | +3.10% |
| Apr 29, 2026after close | $0.70 | $0.72 | +2.86% | +8.41% | +3.37% |
| Jul 23, 2025after close | $0.78 | $0.78 | +0.00% | +2.87% | +4.15% |
| Apr 23, 2025after close | $0.66 | $0.62 | -6.06% | -2.05% | +2.51% |
| Feb 5, 2025after close | $0.65 | $0.63 | -3.08% | -1.30% | -1.78% |
As of October 17, 2026, ORLY has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 5 reported quarters and rose in the first trading session after that beat; its latest report, on July 29, 2026, came in 0.00% above the estimate and the stock moved -3.61% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 62.7, showing bullish momentum without being overbought.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 62.7 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of ORLY
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
The trend signal for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is mixed. At $89.27, the stock is 1.97% above its 50-day average of $87.55, yet 1.54% below its 200-day average of $90.67. That gap leaves the 50-day average 3.44% below the 200-day average, so the longer-term structure has not turned up, even though the price has recovered above the shorter average. Inside its 52-week range of $82.59 to $102.46, the price sits at 34% of the range and is 12.87% below the high.
Recent gains sit against a weaker longer record: the price rose 6.68% over the past month, rose 3.74% over the past three months and fell 11.76% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 62.7 is in the bullish zone, below the overbought line, and the MACD line is positive.
New analyst coverage ›
Bernstein started coverage at Market Perform on September 29, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Bernstein, September 29, 2026
Earnings miss ›
The July 29, 2026 report missed the EPS estimate by 0.00%, and the share price fell 3.61% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, July 29, 2026
- The two closest levels matter most: the 200-day SMA at $90.67 sits above the price, and the 50-day SMA at $87.55 sits below it.
- A 14-day RSI of 62.7 places ORLY in the bullish zone, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- After the July 29, 2026 report the share price fell 3.61% in the first session; ORLY beat estimates in 1 of the last 5 reports.
The trend is mixed: ORLY is above its 50-day average at $87.55 but below its 200-day average at $90.67. A close above the 200-day would turn both signals up, and a close below the 50-day would turn both down. The nearest levels are the 50-day SMA at $87.55 below and the 200-day SMA at $90.67 above.
Momentum, with the RSI in the bullish zone, still backs the move.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for ORLY, from its daily closes.
As of October 17, 2026, with ORLY at $89.27, its 14-day RSI is 62.7 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $87.55 and its 200-day is $90.67.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 17, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What ORLY moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 17, 2026, ORLY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.12 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.01 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), -0.05 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.11 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
23 of 29 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $109.00 is 22.1% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
23 of 29 rate it a buy now, against 23 of 28 three months ago.
ORLY Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $89.27, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bernstein | Initiates | Market Perform |
| Sep 18, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy |
| Sep 16, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Jul 31, 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight |
As of October 17, 2026, 29 Wall Street analysts cover ORLY: 23 rate it a buy or strong buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $91.00 to $120.00, with a median of $109.00, 22.1% above the price of $89.27.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
ORLY trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from ORLY's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much ORLY tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
ORLY's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
4/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.33% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 38.1%, from December 2016 to July 2017, regained by July 2018.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
88% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $48,172, against $42,058 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
ORLY Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 17, 2026, ORLY's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -38.1% (December 2016 to July 2017); it regained that peak by July 2018, 12 months after the low, and 88% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into ORLY in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: ORLY beat the S&P 500 over this period: $48,172 against $42,058.
A $10,000 investment in ORLY in October 2016 would be worth about $48,172 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,058 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to ORLY, and which have not.
Strongest month, July: an average of +4.37%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, May: an average of -2.96%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +2.38%, up in 5 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, ORLY's strongest calendar month has been July (average +4.37%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest May (average -2.96%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in ORLY, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ORLY today could grow to about $25,219 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $75,728 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $8,398. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ORLY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $129 for ORLY by 2030 in the base case, from $89.27 today (1.4x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $64.47. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ORLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $69.16 | $97.92 | $139 | |
| 2028 | $65.69 | $107 | $176 | |
| 2029 | $64.52 | $118 | $215 | |
| 2030 | $64.47 | $129 | $259 | |
| 2031 | $65.15 | $142 | $308 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of ORLY's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
ORLY insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Insider buying: No insider bought ORLY shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 17, 2026, ORLY insiders reported 20 open-market sales worth $27.5M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Thomas T Hendrickson
Director
|
Sell | 1.0K | $87.8K |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Christopher Andrew Mancini
Officer
|
Sell | 3.0K | $279.0K |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Maria Amalia Sastre
Director
|
Sell | 2.0K | $183.7K |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Christopher Andrew Mancini
Officer
|
Option | 3.0K | $50.1K |
| May 29, 2026 | Thomas T Hendrickson
Director
|
Sell | 1.2K | $106.0K |
| May 20, 2026 | Robert Allen Dumas
Officer
|
Sell | 84.6K | $7.8M |
| May 20, 2026 | Robert Allen Dumas
Officer
|
Option | 84.6K | $1.5M |
| May 18, 2026 | John Raymond Murphy
Director
|
Sell | 2.6K | $230.1K |
| May 15, 2026 | Kimberly A. Debeers
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | $180.1K |
| May 15, 2026 | Thomas T Hendrickson
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | $180.1K |
| May 15, 2026 | John Raymond Murphy
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | $180.1K |
| May 15, 2026 | Dana N Perlman
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | $180.1K |
| May 15, 2026 | Maria Amalia Sastre
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | $180.1K |
| May 15, 2026 | Fred Alan Whitfield
Director
|
Grant | 2.0K | $180.1K |
| May 8, 2026 | Brad Walter Beckham
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 13.6K | $1.3M |
| May 8, 2026 | Brad Walter Beckham
Chief Executive Officer
|
Option | 13.6K | $233.4K |
| May 7, 2026 | Philip M Hopper
Officer
|
Sell | 3.7K | $350.0K |
| May 7, 2026 | Philip M Hopper
Officer
|
Option | 3.7K | $66.5K |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maria Amalia Sastre
Director
|
Sell | 1.0K | $92.7K |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Gregory L Henslee
Chairman of the Board
|
Grant | 4.3K | $425.5K |
| Jan 29, 2026 | David E O'Reilly
Officer and Director
|
Grant | 3.7K | $369.0K |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Philip M Hopper
Officer
|
Sell | 3.5K | $354.4K |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Christopher Andrew Mancini
Officer
|
Sell | 2.4K | $238.6K |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Philip M Hopper
Officer
|
Option | 3.5K | $62.9K |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Christopher Andrew Mancini
Officer
|
Option | 2.4K | $39.4K |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Dana N Perlman
Director
|
Grant | 1.0K | $99.0K |
| Nov 21, 2025 | David E O'Reilly
Officer and Director
|
Grant | 7.1K | $710.0K |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Jeremy Adam Fletcher
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 3.8K | $379.5K |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Jeremy Adam Fletcher
Chief Financial Officer
|
Option | 3.8K | $68.9K |
| Nov 4, 2025 | John Raymond Murphy
Director
|
Sell | 3.1K | $289.4K |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Carl David Wilbanks
Officer
|
Sell | 88.5K | $9.1M |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Maria Amalia Sastre
Director
|
Sell | 595 | $60.9K |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Carl David Wilbanks
Officer
|
Option | 88.5K | $1.6M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Shari Lynne Reaves
Officer
|
Sell | 2.0K | $207.6K |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Dana N Perlman
Director
|
Grant | 1.0K | $99.4K |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Mark Joseph Merz
Officer
|
Sell | 34.6K | $3.4M |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Mark Joseph Merz
Officer
|
Option | 29.5K | $534.3K |
| May 30, 2025 | Ramon Parises Odems
Officer
|
Sell | 2.0K | $2.7M |
| May 30, 2025 | Gregory L Henslee
Chairman of the Board
|
Grant | 4.9K | $6.7M |
| May 30, 2025 | Ramon Parises Odems
Officer
|
Option | 2.0K | $494.8K |
| May 29, 2025 | Najera Jose A Montellano
Officer
|
Sell | 19 | $25.7K |
| May 19, 2025 | John Raymond Murphy
Director
|
Sell | 200 | $275.8K |
| May 16, 2025 | Thomas T Hendrickson
Director
|
Grant | 131 | $181.0K |
| May 16, 2025 | Gregory Dale Johnson
Director
|
Grant | 131 | $181.0K |
| May 16, 2025 | John Raymond Murphy
Director
|
Grant | 131 | $181.0K |
| May 16, 2025 | Dana N Perlman
Director
|
Grant | 131 | $181.0K |
| May 16, 2025 | Maria Amalia Sastre
Director
|
Grant | 131 | $181.0K |
| May 16, 2025 | Fred Alan Whitfield
Director
|
Grant | 131 | $181.0K |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 17, 2026.