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As of October 10, 2026, Aurora Innovation Inc. (AUR) trades at $5.830. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $5.830, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $12.50 across 13 analysts. RSI at 32 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $6.221.
Aurora Innovation Inc. (AUR)
Aurora Innovation Inc. NASDAQ
$5.83
0.1000 (1.75%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
69 / 100
Aurora Innovation Inc. (AUR) is trading at $5.83, below its 50-day SMA of $6.22 but above its 200-day SMA of $5.58, indicating a mixed technical picture. The company is experiencing exceptional revenue growth, projected to increase by 400% this year and over 1150% next year, far outpacing sector averages. This rapid expansion is a primary driver for analyst optimism, with a consensus "Buy" rating and a median price target of $12.50, suggesting over 114% upside potential. However, Aurora Innovation is currently loss-making, with a negative EPS of $-0.47 and a substantial negative profit margin of -466.67%. The company's price-to-sales ratio is exceptionally high at 2,336.85, reflecting its growth-oriented valuation. Despite a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, the path to profitability remains a key concern. A significant risk stems from insider activity, where parent company Uber Technologies, Inc. has been systematically reducing its stake, representing over $1.1 billion in sales as part of a corporate restructuring. While this is not indicative of management's view on the core business, it contributes to a net seller position and warrants investor attention.
AUR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$5.81
Day Range
$5.68 to $5.85
Prev Close
$5.73
Volume
14.41M
52-Week Range
$3.60 to $8.57
Market Cap
$11.68B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs VCR
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, AUR trades at 2,336.85x, far above the sector average of 1.90x.
AUR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, AUR beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
AUR Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+114.41% Upside
Median of 13 analysts (12-month)
$12.50
AI Technical Analysis
With an RSI of 31.72, Aurora Innovation Inc. exhibits bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further downside or a period of consolidation. The stock is currently trading below its 20-day EMA ($5.89) and its 50-day SMA ($6.22), but remains above its 200-day SMA ($5.58). This positioning indicates that while the long-term trend is still positive, the short-to-medium term trend is facing headwinds. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 14.4 million shares compared to a 30-day average of 25.4 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders at current levels.
ProTips
- Monitor Uber Technologies, Inc.'s ongoing stake reduction in Aurora Innovation Inc. to understand its impact on market sentiment, even though it's framed as a corporate divestiture.
- Given the bearish RSI and the stock trading below its 50-day SMA, consider waiting for a clearer technical signal or a pullback to stronger support levels before initiating a position.
- The company's extremely high valuation is heavily reliant on future growth; any signs of slowing revenue expansion or competitive threats could trigger a sharp correction.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast revenue growth of over 400% for the current year and more than 1150% for the next, indicating significant market adoption and expansion potential for Aurora's autonomous driving technology.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Significant Upside to Median Analyst Price Target
The median analyst price target of $12.50 represents an upside of over 114% from the current stock price of $5.83, suggesting Wall Street sees considerable value appreciation potential.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusNeutral
Parent Company Divestiture
Uber Technologies, Inc. is systematically reducing its stake in Aurora Innovation Inc. as part of a corporate restructuring. This large-scale selling, while not a bearish signal from management, contributes to net insider selling and may influence short-term price action.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Continued Unprofitability
Aurora Innovation Inc. continues to report negative EPS and profit margins, with losses expected to persist in the near term. The high valuation is contingent on future profitability, making the stock vulnerable to execution risks.
Source: Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
Aurora Innovation Inc. is positioned for substantial revenue growth over the next 1-2 years, with analysts projecting over 400% growth this year and more than 1150% next year. The median analyst price target of $12.50 suggests a potential upside of over 114% from the current price of $5.83, reflecting strong conviction in the company's long-term autonomous driving technology. However, the path to profitability remains a critical hurdle, with continued EPS losses expected. Investors should monitor the company's ability to scale its operations efficiently and convert its impressive revenue growth into positive earnings. Key upside catalysts include successful deployment of its technology in commercial applications and strategic partnerships, while downside risks include competitive advancements, regulatory hurdles, and potential delays in achieving profitability.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 11.68B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.4700 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 8.57 |
| 52 Week Low | 3.60 |
Aurora Innovation Inc. trades at a high valuation, with its price-to-sales ratio at 2,336.85, significantly above the sector median of 1.9. This premium is driven by its exceptional revenue growth, which is expected to exceed 400% this year and over 1150% next year, dwarfing the sector average of 7.2%. The company's profitability remains a significant concern, with a negative EPS of $-0.47 and a net profit margin of -466.67%. Its return on equity is also significantly negative at -45.64%. While the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.04, the lack of current profitability and the high valuation suggest that the stock is priced for substantial future success, making it vulnerable to any setbacks in growth or execution.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Aurora Innovation Inc. most recently reported a loss per share of $-0.14 for the quarter ending June 2026, missing the analyst estimate of $-0.12 by 16.67%. This followed a pattern of mixed earnings results, with two previous quarters beating estimates and two missing. The stock saw a positive price reaction of 4.35% following the latest earnings report, despite the EPS miss, highlighting the market's focus on revenue growth over immediate profitability. Forward-looking estimates indicate continued losses for the current year ($-0.49 EPS) and next year ($-0.45 EPS), but with significant acceleration in revenue growth projections.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Aurora Innovation Inc. is its current lack of profitability and the extremely high valuation, which is predicated on sustained, rapid revenue growth. Any deceleration in this growth or failure to execute on its autonomous driving technology roadmap could lead to a significant re-rating of the stock. Also, the substantial insider selling, driven by parent company Uber Technologies, Inc.'s divestiture, introduces uncertainty and could weigh on investor sentiment, even if it represents a corporate restructuring rather than a lack of confidence in the core business. Competitive pressures in the autonomous vehicle space are intense, and Aurora faces established players and emerging technologies that could challenge its market position and technological lead.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 31.72 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.15 |
| SMA 50 | 6.22 |
| SMA 200 | 5.58 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($6.221) above the 200-day SMA ($5.577), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with AUR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
AUR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$5.713
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$5.830
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$5.404
MAX LOSS
-5.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (31.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$5.999
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$6.285
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$6.570
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AUR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.61%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AUR in May 2021 would be worth about $5,830 today, compared with about $18,629 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AUR today could grow to about $7,773 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $58,972 and a bear case around $1,025. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AUR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $5.27 for AUR by 2030 in the base case, from $5.83 today (0.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $1.46. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AUR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $3.00 | $5.68 | $10.79 |
| 2028 | $2.24 | $5.54 | $13.72 |
| 2029 | $1.78 | $5.41 | $16.40 |
| 2030 | $1.46 | $5.27 | $18.99 |
| 2031 | $1.23 | $5.14 | $21.54 |
| 2032 | $1.04 | $5.01 | $24.08 |
| 2033 | $0.897 | $4.89 | $26.63 |
| 2034 | $0.778 | $4.77 | $29.19 |
| 2035 | $0.6797 | $4.65 | $31.78 |
| 2036 | $0.5973 | $4.53 | $34.38 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AUR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
AUR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$2.5M
3 Transactions
Sold
$1.2B
11 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$88.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 67.5M | $479.3M |
| Aug 17, 2026 | UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 72.0M | $471.6M |
| Sep 15, 2026 | UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 29.4M | $182.2M |
| May 18, 2026 | HOFFMAN REID G
Director
|
Sell | 5.8M | $45.5M |
| Nov 8, 2024 | HOFFMAN REID G
Director
|
Sell | 4.9M | $27.5M |
| Aug 17, 2026 | VOLPI MICHELANGELO A
Director
|
Sell | 2.8M | $19.9M |
| Nov 5, 2024 | HOFFMAN REID G
Director
|
Sell | 3.7M | $19.5M |
| Nov 15, 2024 | HOFFMAN REID G
Director
|
Sell | 3.1M | $17.0M |
| Nov 12, 2024 | HOFFMAN REID G
Director
|
Sell | 2.5M | $13.7M |
| Aug 10, 2026 | VOLPI MICHELANGELO A
Director
|
Sell | 1.9M | $13.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Aurora Innovation Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Aurora Innovation Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $5.27, a downside case of $1.46, and an upside case of $18.99. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
Is Aurora Innovation Inc. stock a buy right now?
Aurora Innovation Inc. is rated a Buy with a consensus score of 69, supported by strong revenue growth expectations and a median analyst price target of $12.50, indicating significant upside from the current price of $5.83. However, the company is currently unprofitable and faces considerable risks.
What are the main risks facing Aurora Innovation Inc.?
Key risks for Aurora Innovation Inc. include its current unprofitability, a high valuation based on future growth, intense competition in the autonomous vehicle sector, and significant insider selling from its parent company, Uber Technologies, Inc.
How is Aurora Innovation Inc. performing financially?
Aurora Innovation Inc. is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with projections exceeding 400% this year. However, it is currently loss-making, with a negative EPS of $-0.47 and a negative profit margin of -466.67%.
What is the Wall Street consensus on Aurora Innovation Inc. stock?
The Wall Street consensus for Aurora Innovation Inc. is a 'Buy', with a score of 69 out of 100, based on 13 analysts. The median price target is $12.50, suggesting substantial upside from the current trading price.
How does Aurora Innovation Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Aurora Innovation Inc. significantly outperforms its sector peers in revenue growth, with projections far exceeding the sector median. However, its valuation metrics, such as price-to-sales, are considerably higher, and it operates with negative profitability compared to the sector's positive average return on equity.
What is the significance of the insider selling at Aurora Innovation Inc.?
Insider selling at Aurora Innovation Inc. is dominated by its parent company, Uber Technologies, Inc., which has reduced its stake significantly as part of a corporate restructuring. While this represents a net seller position, it is not considered a bearish signal from company management.