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As of September 11, 2026, M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) trades at $239.72. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $257.50, 7.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $257.50 across 20 analysts. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $244.83.
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)
M&T Bank Corporation NYSE
$239.72
0.7000 (0.29%)
At close: Sep 11, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
58 / 100
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is currently trading at $239.72, below its 50-day moving average of $244.83 but above its 200-day moving average of $221.83, indicating a mixed technical picture. The bank's consensus score stands at 58, aligning with a 'Hold' rating from Wall Street analysts, who collectively assign a median price target of $257.50, implying a modest 7.4% upside potential. Recent earnings have shown some volatility, with a beat in the latest quarter (Q2 2026) but a miss in the prior quarter (Q1 2026). The bank's revenue growth has been modest, with current year estimates projecting around 4.00% growth. A key risk stems from moderate insider selling, with over $32.5 million in sales reported, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from management at current price levels.
MTB Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$242.69
Day Range
$237.28 to $242.69
Prev Close
$239.02
Volume
35.7K
52-Week Range
$174.76 to $255.95
Market Cap
$34.62B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-23%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
MTB Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, MTB beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
MTB Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+7.42% Upside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$257.50
AI Technical Analysis
M&T Bank Corporation's price action shows it trading below its 50-day moving average of $244.83, which is now acting as resistance, while remaining above its 200-day moving average of $221.83, indicating a longer-term uptrend is still intact. The RSI is neutral at 48.77, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and the MACD is slightly negative at -2.017, hinting at some waning momentum. Volume has been exceptionally low recently, with the latest volume at 35,727, significantly below the average of 957,653, which could imply a lack of conviction from traders in the current price range. Key support is seen around the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA at $240.61.
ProTips
- Moderate insider selling totaling over $32.5 million warrants close monitoring as it may indicate a lack of strong conviction from management.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day moving average, suggesting potential near-term headwinds, while its position above the 200-day moving average indicates a longer-term uptrend remains intact.
- Consider position sizing carefully given the limited analyst upside and mixed earnings performance, favoring a more cautious approach until clearer bullish signals emerge.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold over $32.5 million worth of M&T Bank Corporation stock, indicating a potential lack of strong conviction at current price levels.
Source: Insider Trading DataNeutral
Mixed Earnings Performance
While the latest quarter showed an earnings beat, previous quarters have exhibited misses, suggesting potential volatility in future earnings reports.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Below Sector Average Revenue Growth
M&T Bank Corporation's revenue growth of 6.2% and projected current year growth of 4.00% lag behind the sector median of 11.7%, potentially limiting top-line expansion.
Source: Company Filings and EstimatesBullish
Attractive P/E Ratio
The bank's P/E ratio of 12.65 is below the sector average of 16.5, suggesting a potentially undervalued stock relative to its peers.
Source: Financial Data AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for M&T Bank Corporation suggests a period of consolidation, with the median analyst price target of $257.50 indicating a limited upside of 7.4% from the current price. While the P/E ratio is attractive compared to sector averages, the moderate insider selling and below-sector-average revenue growth temper expectations for significant near-term appreciation. The bank's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates and accelerate revenue growth will be key factors in driving a more substantial upward re-rating. Potential catalysts for upside include stronger-than-expected earnings beats, successful integration of any strategic initiatives, or a broader market rally that lifts regional bank valuations. Conversely, downside risks include a potential slowdown in the regional economy, increased regulatory scrutiny, or a continuation of insider selling, which could pressure the stock price lower. The neutral RSI and low volume suggest that the market is currently awaiting clearer signals.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 34.62B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.65 |
| EPS (TTM) | 18.90 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.50% |
| 52 Week High | 255.95 |
| 52 Week Low | 174.76 |
M&T Bank Corporation trades at a P/E ratio of 12.65, which is below the sector average of 16.5, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation relative to peers. However, its revenue growth of 6.2% lags behind the sector median of 11.7%, and current year revenue growth estimates are projected at a modest 4.00%. The bank's EPS of $18.90 is solid, but the moderate insider selling totaling over $32.5 million indicates a lack of strong buying conviction from management. While the P/E ratio is favorable, the slower revenue growth and insider selling temper the bullish case for a significant fundamental re-rating in the near term.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
M&T Bank Corporation's most recent earnings report for Q2 2026 showed an EPS of $5.32, beating the estimate of $4.66 by 14.16% and leading to a 2.22% price increase. This followed a miss in Q1 2026 where EPS of $0.17 fell short of the $0.23 estimate. The bank's earnings performance has been mixed over the last few quarters, with a pattern of alternating beats and misses. Current year revenue growth is estimated at 4.00%, indicating a stable but not rapidly expanding top line.
Key Risks
A primary risk for M&T Bank Corporation is the moderate insider selling, with over $32.5 million in sales reported, signaling a potential lack of strong conviction from management at current price levels. Additionally, the bank's revenue growth, while positive, is below the sector average, and forward estimates suggest continued moderate expansion. The mixed earnings performance also presents a risk, as it highlights potential unpredictability in profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 48.77 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -2.02 |
| SMA 50 | 244.83 |
| SMA 200 | 221.83 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($244.83) above the 200-day SMA ($221.83), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.56
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.42
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.08
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
MTB Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$237.32
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$239.72
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$229.21
MAX LOSS
-3.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (48.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$244.44
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$249.19
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$256.31
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MTB is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MTB in September 2016 would be worth about $20,234 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MTB today could grow to about $20,134 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $75,707 and a bear case around $5,354. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MTB Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $317 for MTB by 2030 in the base case, from $240 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $137. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MTB's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $169 | $257 | $391 |
| 2028 | $152 | $276 | $499 |
| 2029 | $143 | $296 | $611 |
| 2030 | $137 | $317 | $733 |
| 2031 | $133 | $340 | $868 |
| 2032 | $131 | $365 | $1,018 |
| 2033 | $129 | $391 | $1,185 |
| 2034 | $128 | $420 | $1,372 |
| 2035 | $128 | $450 | $1,581 |
| 2036 | $128 | $483 | $1,815 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MTB's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
MTB Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$32.5M
27 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2024 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 65.5K | $9.7M |
| Jul 28, 2023 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 56.0K | $7.8M |
| May 14, 2024 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 43.4K | $6.7M |
| Dec 14, 2023 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 47.3K | $6.5M |
| Dec 11, 2023 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 41.6K | $5.5M |
| Jun 9, 2026 | PEARSON KEVIN J
Officer
|
Sell | 23.4K | $5.3M |
| Feb 9, 2026 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 21.2K | $5.0M |
| Aug 14, 2025 | PEARSON KEVIN J
Officer
|
Sell | 24.4K | $4.7M |
| Dec 7, 2023 | BARNES JOHN P
Director
|
Sell | 33.8K | $4.5M |
| Oct 28, 2024 | JONES RENE F.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 23.1K | $4.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is M&T Bank Corporation's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, M&T Bank Corporation's stock price is projected to be $317.16 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $137.24, while the upside projection reaches $732.94. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets.
Is M&T Bank Corporation stock a buy right now?
M&T Bank Corporation is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 58. The median analyst price target of $257.50 suggests a limited 7.4% upside from the current price of $239.72, indicating that the stock may not offer significant immediate buying opportunities.
What are the main risks facing M&T Bank Corporation?
Key risks include moderate insider selling totaling over $32.5 million, suggesting a lack of strong management conviction. Also, the bank's revenue growth lags behind its sector peers, and forward estimates indicate only moderate expansion, which could limit future performance.
How does M&T Bank Corporation's valuation compare to its peers?
M&T Bank Corporation trades at a P/E ratio of 12.65, which is below the regional bank sector average of 16.5. This suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers based on earnings multiples.
What is the recent earnings performance of M&T Bank Corporation?
The bank reported a positive surprise in its latest Q2 2026 earnings, beating estimates by 14.16% and leading to a stock price increase. However, this followed a miss in the prior quarter, indicating a somewhat inconsistent earnings trend.
What is the technical outlook for M&T Bank Corporation stock?
Technically, MTB is trading below its 50-day moving average, which is now acting as resistance, but remains above its 200-day moving average. The RSI is neutral, and recent trading volume has been exceptionally low, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction in the short term.
What is the consensus rating for M&T Bank Corporation?
The consensus rating for M&T Bank Corporation is 'Hold', with a Wall Street score of 58 out of 100. This is based on 20 analysts, with the majority holding a 'Hold' rating.