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As of September 26, 2026, KeyCorp (KEY) trades at $20.61. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $25.00, 21.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $25.00 across 19 analysts. RSI at 26 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $22.12.
KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyCorp NYSE
$20.61
0.3600 (1.78%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
KeyCorp (KEY) is trading at $20.61, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.12 and $21.62), signaling a bearish technical trend. The stock's RSI is at 26.14, indicating oversold conditions. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Hold' rating with a median price target of $25, implying a 21.3% upside potential. The company's fundamentals show a profit margin of 27.54% and a return on equity of 10.33%, which are solid within the regional banking sector. However, insider activity reveals a net seller stance, with significant sales totaling $9.7 million against $151.8 thousand in purchases, suggesting a moderate sell signal from management. The regional banking sector is experiencing moderate revenue growth of 11.7% and a median P/E of 16.5. KeyCorp's P/E of 12.05 is below the sector average, and its price-to-sales ratio of 2.98 is also favorable compared to the sector's 3.8. Despite these valuation advantages, the current technical setup and insider selling trends present near-term headwinds. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in insider sentiment for further direction.
KEY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$20.33
Day Range
$20.30 to $20.67
Prev Close
$20.25
Volume
15.83M
52-Week Range
$16.47 to $24.07
Market Cap
$21.99B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-27%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
KEY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, KEY beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
KEY Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+21.30% Upside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$25.00
AI Technical Analysis
KeyCorp's stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.12 and $21.62), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.14, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -0.49, also signaling bearish momentum. Volume has been below average recently, with 15.83 million shares traded compared to a 17.85 million average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction behind the current price action. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the oversold RSI, but the current price of $20.61 is approaching historical lows relative to its moving averages. A move above the 50-day SMA would be the first indication of a potential trend reversal.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; a shift from net selling to net buying could signal renewed management confidence.
- KeyCorp's oversold RSI suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but confirmation requires breaking above the 50-day SMA at $22.12.
- Given the moderate insider selling signal, consider position sizing carefully and avoid over-allocating until a clear bullish trend emerges.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold approximately $9.7 million worth of stock against only $151.8 thousand in purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal and potential lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The stock's RSI is at 26.14, indicating oversold conditions that often precede a price reversal or bounce, potentially offering a short-term trading opportunity.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Earnings Beat Trend
KeyCorp has a recent history of beating EPS estimates, including a 4.76% surprise in the quarter ending June 2026. This consistent performance could provide underlying support.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Favorable Sector Valuation
KeyCorp's P/E and P/S ratios are below sector medians, suggesting its valuation may be attractive relative to peers, which could draw investor interest if market sentiment improves.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for KeyCorp over the next 6-12 months suggests a potential move towards its median analyst target price of $25, representing a 21.3% upside from the current $20.61. This outlook is supported by favorable valuation metrics compared to the regional banking sector and a history of earnings beats. The company's strong profit margins and minimal debt also provide a stable financial foundation. However, the outlook is tempered by bearish technical indicators, including prices below key moving averages and oversold RSI conditions that have not yet translated into a sustained upward trend. Significant insider selling also raises concerns about management's near-term confidence. A catalyst for upside could be a clear shift in insider sentiment or a broader market rally that lifts regional banks. Conversely, persistent weakness in the banking sector or further negative insider activity could pressure the stock towards its downside projection of $9.41.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 21.99B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.05 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.71 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.98% |
| 52 Week High | 24.07 |
| 52 Week Low | 16.47 |
KeyCorp's valuation appears attractive relative to its peers, with a P/E ratio of 12.05, which is below the sector median of 16.5. Its price-to-sales ratio of 2.98 is also lower than the sector average of 3.8, suggesting the stock may be undervalued on a sales basis. The company demonstrates a profit margin of 27.54% and an operating margin of 34.71%, indicating efficient operations. However, the return on equity stands at 10.33%, which is slightly below the sector median of 13.8. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is a very low 0.01, indicating a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage. While the valuation metrics are favorable, the slightly lower ROE compared to peers and the moderate insider selling signal warrant a cautious approach.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
KeyCorp recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an EPS of $0.44, beating the estimate of $0.42 by 4.76%. This followed a similar beat in the prior quarter, where EPS was $0.44 against an estimate of $0.41. The stock saw positive price reactions following both of these earnings reports. Revenue growth for the current quarter is estimated at +8.00% year-over-year, with full-year revenue growth projected at 7.00%.
Key Risks
KeyCorp faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with significant sales totaling $9.7 million, indicating a potential lack of confidence from management in the short term. The stock is trading in oversold territory according to its RSI, but its current price is below key moving averages, suggesting that the bearish technical trend may persist despite the oversold conditions. Also, the company's return on equity of 10.33% is slightly below the sector median, indicating potential room for operational improvement.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 26.14 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.49 |
| SMA 50 | 22.12 |
| SMA 200 | 21.62 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($22.12) above the 200-day SMA ($21.62), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 26.1 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.62
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with KEY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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KEY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$20.40
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$20.61
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$19.73
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (26.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$21.02
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$21.42
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$22.04
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for KEY is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in KEY in September 2016 would be worth about $17,161 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in KEY today could grow to about $18,446 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $93,883 and a bear case around $3,624. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
KEY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $26.33 for KEY by 2030 in the base case, from $20.61 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $9.41. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on KEY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $13.10 | $21.91 | $36.66 |
| 2028 | $11.25 | $23.29 | $48.23 |
| 2029 | $10.16 | $24.77 | $60.38 |
| 2030 | $9.41 | $26.33 | $73.69 |
| 2031 | $8.86 | $27.99 | $88.46 |
| 2032 | $8.44 | $29.76 | $105 |
| 2033 | $8.11 | $31.64 | $123 |
| 2034 | $7.85 | $33.64 | $144 |
| 2035 | $7.64 | $35.76 | $167 |
| 2036 | $7.47 | $38.02 | $193 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using KEY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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KEY Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$151.8K
4 Transactions
Sold
$9.7M
12 Transactions
Insiders
24
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$617.6K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2019 | MOONEY BETH E
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 437.7K | $8.0M |
| Oct 23, 2019 | MOONEY BETH E
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 362.6K | $6.6M |
| May 24, 2021 | GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 222.7K | $5.1M |
| Oct 29, 2019 | HARRIS PAUL N
General Counsel
|
Sell | 173.8K | $3.2M |
| Apr 26, 2021 | GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 101.9K | $2.2M |
| Jul 23, 2025 | GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 112.1K | $2.1M |
| Jul 25, 2019 | PAINE ANDREW J III
Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $1.8M |
| Oct 22, 2021 | BRADY AMY G
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 66.5K | $1.6M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | PAINE ANDREW J III
Officer
|
Sell | 66.0K | $1.5M |
| Jan 29, 2026 | MAGO ANGELA G
Officer
|
Sell | 62.9K | $1.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is KeyCorp's stock price forecast for 2030?
KeyCorp's stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, suggests a base case of $26.33, with a downside projection of $9.41 and an upside potential of $73.69. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is KeyCorp stock a buy right now?
KeyCorp is currently rated a 'Hold' with a consensus score of 59. While the median analyst target price of $25 suggests a 21.3% upside, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits moderate insider selling, warranting caution.
What are KeyCorp's recent earnings results?
KeyCorp most recently reported an EPS of $0.44 for the quarter ending June 2026, beating the analyst estimate of $0.42 by 4.76%. This continues a trend of positive earnings surprises, with the stock reacting favorably to recent reports.
How does KeyCorp's valuation compare to the regional banking sector?
KeyCorp's P/E ratio of 12.05 and price-to-sales ratio of 2.98 are both below the sector medians of 16.5 and 3.8, respectively, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation. However, its return on equity of 10.33% is slightly below the sector average of 13.8.
What is the technical outlook for KeyCorp stock?
Technically, KeyCorp is in a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.12 and $21.62). The RSI is in oversold territory at 26.14, indicating potential for a bounce, but volume has been below average, suggesting weak conviction.
What are the main risks facing KeyCorp?
Key risks include moderate insider selling totaling $9.7 million, a bearish technical trend indicated by prices below key moving averages, and a return on equity that lags the sector median. These factors suggest potential headwinds despite favorable valuation metrics.
What is the consensus rating for KeyCorp among Wall Street analysts?
The Wall Street consensus for KeyCorp is 'Hold', with 19 analysts covering the stock. The median price target is $25, and the overall analyst score is 59 out of 100, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook.