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As of October 11, 2026, KeyCorp (KEY) trades at $19.97. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $25.02, 25.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $25.00 across 19 analysts. RSI at 32 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $21.57.
KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyCorp NYSE
$19.97
-0.1300 (-0.65%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
KeyCorp (KEY) is currently trading at $19.97, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($21.57 and $21.59), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's fair value is estimated at $25.02, offering a potential upside of 25.2% based on analyst targets. Wall Street consensus is a 'Hold' with a median price target of $25.00, supported by 19 analysts. Fundamental analysis shows KeyCorp with a profit margin of 27.54% and a return on equity of 10.33%, which is slightly below the sector median ROE of 13.8%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is exceptionally low at 0.01, indicating a strong balance sheet. However, insider activity shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with net sellers dominating recent transactions, signaling potential caution from management.
KEY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$20.01
Day Range
$19.85 to $20.06
Prev Close
$20.10
Volume
14.40M
52-Week Range
$16.47 to $24.07
Market Cap
$21.31B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs KBE
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-30%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
KEY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, KEY beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
KEY Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+25.19% Upside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$25.00
AI Technical Analysis
KeyCorp's stock is exhibiting bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($21.57 and $21.59). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31.56, confirming a bearish trend and suggesting further downside potential. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 14.4 million shares traded compared to the 14.99 million average. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current trend, but the price is currently below its 20-day EMA of $20.49, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; a continued 'Moderate Sell Signal' could indicate underlying concerns.
- Given the bearish technicals, consider waiting for a confirmed break above the 50-day or 200-day moving average before initiating new long positions.
- As a regional bank, KeyCorp's performance is sensitive to interest rate policies and overall economic health; stay informed on macroeconomic trends.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $9.7 million worth of stock versus $151.8 thousand purchased, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' that warrants investor attention.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Below Key Moving Averages
KeyCorp is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($21.57 and $21.59), reinforcing a bearish technical trend and suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Consistent EPS Beats
KeyCorp has exceeded EPS estimates in its last two reported quarters, demonstrating operational resilience and the ability to meet or surpass analyst expectations.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Strong Balance Sheet
The company maintains an exceptionally low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, providing financial stability and flexibility.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for KeyCorp suggests a potential move towards its fair value of $25.02, supported by analyst price targets and reasonable valuations. Continued revenue growth and strong balance sheet metrics provide a stable foundation for the company. Upside catalysts could emerge from a shift in insider sentiment or a stronger-than-expected economic environment for regional banks. Conversely, a sustained bearish technical trend, increased insider selling, or broader financial sector instability could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing downside projections.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 21.31B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.61 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.72 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.11% |
| 52 Week High | 24.07 |
| 52 Week Low | 16.47 |
KeyCorp's valuation appears reasonable, with a P/E ratio of 11.61, trading below the sector average of 16.5. Its price-to-sales ratio of 2.89 is also below the sector median of 3.8. The company's profit margin stands at a healthy 27.54%, and its return on equity is 10.33%, though this trails the sector median of 13.8%. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. While revenue growth has been positive at 10.1%, it slightly lags the sector average of 11.7%. Forward estimates suggest revenue growth of 8.00% for the current year and 7.00% for the next, with EPS projected to grow from $1.84 this year to $2.15 next year.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
KeyCorp recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with EPS of $0.44 beating the estimate of $0.42 by 4.76%, leading to a modest 0.7% price increase. The prior quarter also saw an EPS beat of 7.32% ($0.44 actual vs $0.41 estimate), with a similar 0.6% stock price gain. These recent earnings beats indicate a pattern of meeting or slightly exceeding analyst expectations, suggesting operational stability. However, the limited price reaction to these positive earnings surprises may signal investor caution or a lack of significant positive catalysts.
Key Risks
The primary risk for KeyCorp stems from insider selling, with a 'Moderate Sell Signal' indicating potential management concerns. Technically, the stock is trading below key moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend that could continue. Also, while earnings have been consistently beating estimates, the muted stock price reaction to these beats suggests that the market may not be rewarding these positive results, potentially due to broader sector headwinds or a lack of compelling growth catalysts.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 31.56 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.47 |
| SMA 50 | 21.57 |
| SMA 200 | 21.59 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.62
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with KEY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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KEY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$19.77
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$19.97
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$19.18
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (31.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$20.36
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$20.76
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$21.35
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for KEY is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in KEY in October 2016 would be worth about $15,675 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in KEY today could grow to about $17,566 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $89,382 and a bear case around $3,452. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
KEY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $25.02 for KEY by 2030 in the base case, from $19.97 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $8.94. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on KEY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $12.63 | $21.13 | $35.34 |
| 2028 | $10.80 | $22.35 | $46.27 |
| 2029 | $9.70 | $23.65 | $57.65 |
| 2030 | $8.94 | $25.02 | $70.00 |
| 2031 | $8.38 | $26.47 | $83.63 |
| 2032 | $7.94 | $28.00 | $98.74 |
| 2033 | $7.59 | $29.62 | $116 |
| 2034 | $7.31 | $31.34 | $134 |
| 2035 | $7.08 | $33.16 | $155 |
| 2036 | $6.89 | $35.08 | $178 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using KEY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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KEY Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$151.8K
4 Transactions
Sold
$9.7M
12 Transactions
Insiders
24
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$617.6K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2019 | MOONEY BETH E
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 437.7K | $8.0M |
| Oct 23, 2019 | MOONEY BETH E
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 362.6K | $6.6M |
| May 24, 2021 | GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 222.7K | $5.1M |
| Oct 29, 2019 | HARRIS PAUL N
General Counsel
|
Sell | 173.8K | $3.2M |
| Apr 26, 2021 | GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 101.9K | $2.2M |
| Jul 23, 2025 | GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 112.1K | $2.1M |
| Jul 25, 2019 | PAINE ANDREW J III
Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $1.8M |
| Oct 22, 2021 | BRADY AMY G
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 66.5K | $1.6M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | PAINE ANDREW J III
Officer
|
Sell | 66.0K | $1.5M |
| Jan 29, 2026 | MAGO ANGELA G
Officer
|
Sell | 62.9K | $1.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is KeyCorp's stock forecast for 2030?
KeyCorp's stock forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case price of $25.02 and a downside scenario of $8.94. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is KeyCorp stock a buy right now?
KeyCorp is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts and has a consensus score of 59. While the fair value upside is 25.2%, the stock is trading below key technical levels and exhibits insider selling, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted.
What are KeyCorp's recent earnings results?
KeyCorp's most recent earnings for the quarter ending June 2026 showed an EPS of $0.44, beating estimates by 4.76%. The previous quarter also saw an EPS beat of 7.32% ($0.44 actual vs $0.41 estimate).
How does KeyCorp's valuation compare to its peers?
KeyCorp's P/E ratio of 11.61 and price-to-sales ratio of 2.89 are below the sector averages of 16.5 and 3.8, respectively, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation relative to its peers.
What is the outlook for KeyCorp's revenue growth?
Analysts project KeyCorp's revenue to grow by 8.00% for the current year and 7.00% for the next year. The next quarter's revenue is expected to increase by 6.00% year-over-year.
Are KeyCorp insiders buying or selling stock?
Insider activity for KeyCorp indicates a 'Moderate Sell Signal,' with total sales of $9.7 million significantly outweighing total purchases of $151.8 thousand in recent filings.
What are the main risks facing KeyCorp?
Key risks include the 'Moderate Sell Signal' from insider transactions, suggesting potential management caution, and the current bearish technical trend where the stock is trading below key moving averages.