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As of September 27, 2026, Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) trades at $175.73. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $184.00, 4.7% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $184.00 across 15 analysts. RSI at 31 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $183.43.
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)
Northern Trust Corporation NASDAQ
$175.73
1.230 (0.70%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
45 / 100
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is trading at $175.73, below its 50-day SMA of $183.43 but above its 200-day SMA of $161.96. The stock exhibits bearish momentum, with its RSI at 31.32. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Hold' rating with a median price target of $184.00, implying a limited 4.7% upside from current levels. The company's fundamentals show a profit margin of 24.67% and a return on equity of 17.07%, which are above the sector medians of 13.8% for ROE. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 3.54 is slightly above the sector average of 3.8, while its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 is significantly lower than the sector median of 0.01. The recent earnings performance has been mixed, with the latest quarter missing estimates by 8.44%.
NTRS Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$175.29
Day Range
$173.23 to $176.22
Prev Close
$174.50
Volume
924.5K
52-Week Range
$121.12 to $195.78
Market Cap
$32.15B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Financial Services)
Performance vs IAI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-9% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
NTRS Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, NTRS beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
NTRS Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+4.71% Upside
Median of 15 analysts (12-month)
$184.00
AI Technical Analysis
Northern Trust Corporation's stock is currently trading with bearish momentum, as indicated by an RSI of 31.32 and a MACD of -2.75. The price is positioned below both its 50-day SMA ($183.43) and its 20-day EMA ($179.94), suggesting near-term downward pressure. However, the stock remains above its 200-day SMA ($161.96), indicating a potentially stable long-term trend. Key support is observed around the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies near the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA. Volume has been below average recently, which could suggest a lack of conviction behind the current price action. The stochastic indicator is in oversold territory, hinting at a potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish.
ProTips
- Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely, as recent performance has shown a mixed trend with a miss in the latest quarter.
- Given the bearish technical momentum and the stock trading below its 50-day SMA, consider waiting for a confirmed technical reversal before initiating new positions.
- Insider selling activity is notable; while not a definitive bearish signal on its own, it warrants attention alongside other fundamental and technical factors.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have been net sellers, with total sales of $20.2M significantly outweighing total purchases of $846.4K, indicating a potential lack of confidence from management.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Missed Earnings Estimate in Latest Quarter
The company missed its EPS estimate for the quarter ending June 2026 by 8.44%, potentially impacting investor sentiment and near-term price performance.
Source: Earnings ReportNeutral
Above Sector Median Profitability
Northern Trust Corporation's strong profit margin (24.67%) and ROE (17.07%) exceed sector averages, providing a fundamental underpinning for the stock.
Source: Company FundamentalsNeutral
Limited Analyst Upside
The median analyst price target of $184.00 offers only a 4.7% upside from the current price of $175.73, suggesting Wall Street sees limited near-term appreciation potential.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
Northern Trust Corporation's outlook is cautiously neutral, with a median analyst price target of $184.00 suggesting limited upside from the current $175.73. The company's strong profitability and solid balance sheet provide a stable foundation, and forward revenue growth estimates remain positive. However, the current bearish technical momentum and mixed earnings performance present headwinds. A significant catalyst would be needed to drive the stock above its resistance levels. Conversely, a failure to reverse the bearish trend or further earnings disappointments could lead to a retest of the 200-day moving average at $161.96.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 32.15B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.10 |
| EPS (TTM) | 11.64 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.87% |
| 52 Week High | 195.78 |
| 52 Week Low | 121.12 |
Northern Trust Corporation's valuation appears reasonable, with a P/E ratio of 15.10, which is below the sector median of 16.5. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.54 is slightly below the sector average of 3.8, suggesting it is not excessively valued on this metric. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 24.67% and a return on equity of 17.07%, both exceeding sector averages. Balance sheet strength is evident with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, significantly below the sector median. While revenue growth has been strong at 36.4% in the latest reported period, forward revenue growth estimates for the current year stand at 14.00%. The company's strong profitability and low debt provide a solid financial foundation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Northern Trust Corporation's most recent earnings report for the quarter ending June 2026 missed analyst expectations, with actual EPS of $4.23 falling short of the estimated $4.62 by 8.44%. This resulted in a slight price decrease of 0.4%. Prior to this, the company had a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates in the March 2026 quarter but missing in the March 2026 and December 2025 quarters. The current year's EPS estimate is $12.73, with forward estimates suggesting a slight decrease in the next year.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Northern Trust Corporation is the current bearish technical momentum, with the stock trading below key short-term moving averages and a low RSI indicating potential for further downside. Insider activity shows a net seller position, with total sales significantly outweighing purchases, signaling a lack of strong conviction from management. Additionally, the mixed earnings surprises in recent quarters could weigh on investor sentiment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 31.32 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -2.75 |
| SMA 50 | 183.43 |
| SMA 200 | 161.96 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($183.43) above the 200-day SMA ($161.96), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.62
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with NTRS? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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NTRS Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$173.97
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$175.73
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$168.75
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (31.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$179.19
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$182.67
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$187.89
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for NTRS is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in NTRS in September 2016 would be worth about $26,015 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NTRS today could grow to about $22,886 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $78,450 and a bear case around $6,677. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
NTRS Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $245 for NTRS by 2030 in the base case, from $176 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $112. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NTRS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $129 | $191 | $282 |
| 2028 | $120 | $207 | $360 |
| 2029 | $115 | $225 | $442 |
| 2030 | $112 | $245 | $533 |
| 2031 | $111 | $266 | $635 |
| 2032 | $111 | $289 | $750 |
| 2033 | $112 | $314 | $879 |
| 2034 | $113 | $341 | $1,026 |
| 2035 | $115 | $370 | $1,191 |
| 2036 | $117 | $402 | $1,379 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using NTRS's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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NTRS Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$846.4K
8 Transactions
Sold
$20.2M
19 Transactions
Insiders
26
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$781.1K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2021 | O GRADY MICHAEL G
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 96.7K | $11.4M |
| Aug 11, 2021 | ST CLAIR JOYCE M
Officer
|
Sell | 49.9K | $5.8M |
| Dec 9, 2021 | O GRADY MICHAEL G
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 48.1K | $5.7M |
| May 11, 2021 | FRADKIN STEVEN L
Officer
|
Sell | 36.1K | $4.3M |
| Jan 26, 2026 | CHERECWICH PETER B
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $3.7M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | LEVY SUSAN COHEN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 27.6K | $3.5M |
| Feb 20, 2020 | CHERECWICH PETER B
Officer
|
Sell | 32.4K | $3.3M |
| Apr 29, 2026 | FOX DAVID W JR
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 20.0K | $3.3M |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CHERECWICH PETER B
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 26.1K | $2.9M |
| Jul 30, 2025 | FRADKIN STEVEN L
Officer
|
Sell | 21.7K | $2.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Northern Trust Corporation's stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Northern Trust Corporation's stock (NTRS) has a base case forecast of $244.72 for 2030, with a downside projection of $112.28 and an upside projection of $533.39. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Northern Trust Corporation stock a buy right now?
Northern Trust Corporation is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $184.00, offering limited upside from the current price of $175.73. The stock exhibits bearish technical momentum, suggesting caution is warranted.
What is Northern Trust Corporation's current technical outlook?
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages with bearish momentum (RSI 31.32), indicating near-term weakness. However, it remains above its 200-day moving average, suggesting longer-term support.
How does Northern Trust Corporation's profitability compare to its peers?
Northern Trust Corporation demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 24.67% and a return on equity of 17.07%, both of which are above the sector medians of 13.8% for ROE.
What are the key risks facing Northern Trust Corporation?
Key risks include the current bearish technical trend, significant insider selling activity, and a history of mixed earnings surprises, which could pressure the stock price.
What is the consensus rating for Northern Trust Corporation stock?
The consensus rating for Northern Trust Corporation is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 45 out of 100, reflecting a neutral stance from analysts.
Are there any significant institutional holders of Northern Trust Corporation stock?
While specific major institutional holders are not detailed, the insider summary indicates a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with significant net selling activity from insiders.