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As of October 11, 2026, Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) trades at $144.82. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $144.82, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $175.00 across 26 analysts. RSI at 65 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $145.65.
Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Yum! Brands Inc. NYSE
$144.82
1.820 (1.27%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) is currently trading at $144.82, precisely at its calculated fair value, with no immediate upside indicated by this metric. The stock is positioned below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.65 and $153.66), suggesting a bearish short-term trend, despite a bullish RSI status of 65.43. Recent earnings have shown consistent beats on EPS, though revenue growth has been modest, with the next quarter's revenue expected to decline year-over-year by 3.00%. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a consensus rating of 'Hold' and a median price target of $175.00, implying an upside of 20.8%. However, insider activity shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with significant net selling totaling $21.8 million versus no reported purchases. This divergence between analyst targets and insider actions, coupled with the stock trading below key moving averages, warrants a cautious approach.
YUM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$144.00
Day Range
$143.04 to $145.47
Prev Close
$143.00
Volume
3.14M
52-Week Range
$134.26 to $170.14
Market Cap
$39.52B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-12% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
YUM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, YUM beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
YUM Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+20.84% Upside
Median of 26 analysts (12-month)
$175.00
AI Technical Analysis
Yum! Brands Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.65 and $153.66), indicating a bearish trend in the medium to long term. However, the price is above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($140.87), suggesting some short-term support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65.43, classified as 'Bullish', indicating strong upward momentum, though it is approaching overbought territory. Volume has been notably higher than average recently, with the latest volume at 3.14 million compared to a 2.23 million average, suggesting increased investor interest. Key support levels are near the 20-day EMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA. The MACD is currently negative at -1.37, reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook despite the bullish RSI.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current 'Moderate Sell Signal' warrants caution despite positive analyst price targets.
- The stock's position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.65 and $153.66) suggests that near-term upside may be limited until these technical levels are reclaimed.
- Given the negative ROE, investors should scrutinize the company's balance sheet and profitability drivers to understand the sustainability of its operations.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $21.8 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management in the near-term stock performance.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
YUM is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.65 and $153.66), suggesting potential downward pressure and resistance to upward price movement.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Consistent EPS Beats
Yum! Brands Inc. has a track record of exceeding earnings per share estimates, providing a fundamental support for the stock's valuation.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Analyst Price Targets Suggest Upside
The median analyst price target of $175.00 implies a potential upside of 20.8% from the current trading price.
Source: Analyst ConsensusMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Yum! Brands Inc. suggests a period of consolidation, with the stock trading near its fair value of $144.82 and facing resistance from its key moving averages. While analysts have a median price target of $175.00, implying potential upside, the current technical setup and insider selling trends temper immediate bullish expectations. The trajectory could shift if the company demonstrates stronger revenue growth or if insider sentiment reverses. Conversely, a failure to overcome the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, coupled with continued selling pressure or a slowdown in earnings beats, could lead to a retest of lower support levels, potentially towards the $109.19 downside projection from long-range simulations.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 39.52B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.24 |
| EPS (TTM) | 7.94 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
| 52 Week High | 170.14 |
| 52 Week Low | 134.26 |
Yum! Brands Inc. exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.24, which is below the sector average of 20.8, suggesting a potential valuation discount relative to peers. The company's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 4.53, also below the sector median of 1.9, which is unusual and may warrant further investigation into the specific business model or accounting practices. Profitability metrics show a strong operating margin of 32.78% and a net profit margin of 25.41%. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is a concerning -21.28%, indicating the company is not effectively generating profits from shareholder equity, potentially due to recent corporate actions or significant debt. The debt-to-equity ratio is a very low -0.02, suggesting minimal leverage and a strong balance sheet.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Yum! Brands Inc. has demonstrated a consistent ability to beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates in recent quarters, with the quarter to June 2026 showing an actual EPS of $1.62 against an estimate of $1.56, a 3.85% surprise. This pattern of positive EPS surprises has been observed across the last four reported quarters. However, revenue growth has been more subdued, with the next quarter's revenue projected to decrease by 3.00% year-over-year, indicating potential headwinds in top-line expansion.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Yum! Brands Inc. is the significant insider selling activity, with a 'Moderate Sell Signal' and over $21.8 million in net sales, which contrasts with the positive analyst price targets. The stock is also trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling potential near-term weakness. Also, the negative Return on Equity (-21.28%) raises concerns about the company's efficiency in generating profits from its equity base.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 65.43 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.37 |
| SMA 50 | 145.65 |
| SMA 200 | 153.66 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $145.65, 200-day: $153.66), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with YUM? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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YUM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$143.37
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$144.82
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$139.07
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (65.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$147.67
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$150.54
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$154.84
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for YUM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in YUM in October 2016 would be worth about $22,827 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in YUM today could grow to about $21,429 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $54,233 and a bear case around $8,467. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
YUM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $196 for YUM by 2030 in the base case, from $145 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $109. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on YUM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $117 | $156 | $210 |
| 2028 | $111 | $169 | $255 |
| 2029 | $109 | $182 | $303 |
| 2030 | $109 | $196 | $353 |
| 2031 | $110 | $212 | $409 |
| 2032 | $111 | $229 | $470 |
| 2033 | $114 | $247 | $537 |
| 2034 | $116 | $266 | $611 |
| 2035 | $119 | $288 | $694 |
| 2036 | $123 | $310 | $785 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using YUM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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YUM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$21.8M
46 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$473.1K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2024 | SAMI SABIR
Officer
|
Sell | 71.1K | $9.7M |
| Feb 14, 2020 | CREED GREG
Director
|
Sell | 87.9K | $9.2M |
| Apr 29, 2021 | GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 46.5K | $5.5M |
| Mar 6, 2024 | SKEANS TRACY L
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 35.4K | $4.9M |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.6K | $4.9M |
| Jun 4, 2019 | CREED GREG
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 44.9K | $4.8M |
| Feb 10, 2020 | CREED GREG
Director
|
Sell | 45.1K | $4.6M |
| Nov 17, 2025 | SKEANS TRACY L
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 24.3K | $3.6M |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SKEANS TRACY L
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 19.1K | $3.0M |
| Feb 10, 2025 | RUSSELL DAVID ERIC
Officer
|
Sell | 18.3K | $2.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Yum! Brands Inc. stock a buy right now?
Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) is currently trading at $144.82, which is its calculated fair value. While analysts have a median price target of $175.00, implying a 20.8% upside, the stock is below its key moving averages and exhibits moderate insider selling, leading to a 'Hold' consensus rating.
What is Yum! Brands Inc.'s fair value and upside potential?
Yum! Brands Inc.'s fair value is estimated at $144.82, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside based on this metric. The analyst median price target is $175.00, suggesting a potential upside of 20.8% from the current level.
What are the recent earnings trends for Yum! Brands Inc.?
Yum! Brands Inc. has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 3.85% surprise in the quarter to June 2026. However, revenue growth has been modest, with the next quarter's revenue expected to decline by 3.00% year-over-year.
What do insiders think about Yum! Brands Inc. stock?
Insider sentiment for Yum! Brands Inc. is currently bearish, with a 'Moderate Sell Signal' indicating net selling activity totaling $21.8 million. There have been no reported insider purchases, suggesting a lack of conviction from management regarding near-term stock appreciation.
How does Yum! Brands Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Yum! Brands Inc. has a P/E ratio of 18.24, below the sector average of 20.8, and a P/S ratio of 4.53, which is significantly higher than the sector median of 1.9. Its ROE of -21.28% is considerably weaker than the sector average of 12.4%.
What is Yum! Brands Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Yum! Brands Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030 shows a base case of $196.44, with a downside projection of $109.19 and an upside projection of $353.41. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
What are the key risks facing Yum! Brands Inc.?
Key risks for Yum! Brands Inc. include significant insider selling, the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($145.65 and $153.66), and a negative Return on Equity of -21.28%, which questions the company's profitability efficiency.