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As of September 27, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) trades at $821.58. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $980.50, 19.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $980.50 across 28 analysts. RSI at 53 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $829.23.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. NYSE
$821.58
16.33 (2.03%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is trading at $821.58, positioned above its 200-day moving average but below its 50-day moving average, indicating a mixed technical picture. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 24% and strong profitability with a net profit margin of 14.51% and an operating margin of 22.18%. Its return on equity stands at an impressive 56.97%. However, significant insider selling pressure is a key concern, with $487.8M in total sales versus $2.4M in total purchases, signaling potential headwinds. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $980.50, implying an upside of 19.3% from the current price. The company's forward estimates are positive, with projected revenue growth of 17.00% for the current year and an expected earnings per share of $27.19. Despite strong fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment regarding future growth, the heavy insider selling warrants caution for investors.
CAT Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$816.34
Day Range
$809.05 to $823.00
Prev Close
$805.25
Volume
1.98M
52-Week Range
$430.61 to $1,073.46
Market Cap
$377.66B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (4% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
CAT Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, CAT beat estimates 5 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
CAT Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+19.34% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$980.50
AI Technical Analysis
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of $829.23, while remaining above its 200-day moving average of $789.56, suggesting a near-term consolidation phase. The RSI is at 52.64, indicating neutral momentum, and volume has been 22.3% below average recently, which could imply a lack of conviction in the current price action. The stock's position above the 20-day EMA of $810.33 suggests some underlying support, but the proximity to the 50-day SMA presents immediate resistance. Key support levels are near the 200-day SMA at $789.56, while resistance is observed around the 50-day SMA at $829.23. The stochastic indicator is in overbought territory at 84.52, which could signal a potential pullback. The MACD is slightly negative at -6.02, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. Investors should monitor the price action around the 50-day SMA for a potential breakout or further consolidation.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy selling pressure from insiders warrants caution and suggests potential near-term headwinds.
- Pay attention to the 50-day moving average at $829.23, as a sustained break above this level could signal a resumption of the bullish trend.
- Given the elevated P/E ratio of 35.43, consider position sizing carefully to manage risk, especially if market volatility increases.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $270 million worth of CAT stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $542K, indicating potential concerns among management regarding future performance or valuation.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Wall Street forecasts current year revenue growth of 17.00% to $79.2 billion, driven by strong demand in the industrials sector, supporting a positive outlook.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Earnings Surprise Trend
Caterpillar has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a significant beat in the June 2026 quarter, demonstrating operational efficiency and strong profitability.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Trading Near 50-Day Moving Average
The stock is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $829.23, presenting a key technical resistance level that needs to be overcome for further upside momentum.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is expected to maintain its strong growth trajectory, with Wall Street projecting revenue to reach $79.2 billion for the current year, a 17.00% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $27.19. The median analyst price target of $980.50 suggests a 19.3% upside from the current price, supported by the company's strong profitability and market leadership in the industrials sector. The stock's position above the 200-day moving average provides a long-term bullish underpinning. Potential upside catalysts include continued strong demand for heavy machinery driven by infrastructure spending and global economic recovery. Conversely, a significant downside risk stems from the heavy insider selling, which could signal internal concerns or precede a price correction. A failure to break above the 50-day moving average resistance at $829.23 could also lead to further consolidation or a move lower, especially if broader market sentiment turns negative or if demand for construction and mining equipment softens.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 377.66B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.43 |
| EPS (TTM) | 23.19 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% |
| 52 Week High | 1,073.46 |
| 52 Week Low | 430.61 |
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) exhibits a strong financial profile, with a price-to-sales ratio of 5.05 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33, which is in line with the sector median of 34.0 for P/E and 4.0 for P/S. The company's return on equity is exceptionally high at 56.97%, significantly outpacing the sector average of 17.8%. Its net profit margin of 14.51% and operating margin of 22.18% are also strong, indicating efficient operations and strong profitability. While the company's valuation metrics, such as a P/E ratio of 35.43, are elevated compared to the sector median of 34.0, its superior profitability and growth prospects justify some premium. The reported revenue growth of 24% significantly exceeds the sector average of 11.7%. The company's balance sheet appears solid, supported by strong cash flow generation, though the debt-to-equity ratio warrants attention in the context of rising interest rates.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) has demonstrated a consistent pattern of beating earnings estimates in recent quarters. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company reported an EPS of $8.17, significantly exceeding the estimate of $6.20 by 31.77%, although the stock saw a minor decline of 0.62%. Prior to that, the March 2026 quarter also beat expectations by 19.4%. The company's revenue growth for the current year is projected at a strong 17.00%, with current quarter revenue estimates showing a substantial 16.00% year-over-year increase. This trend of positive earnings surprises, coupled with strong forward revenue estimates, suggests underlying business strength. However, the price reaction to the most recent earnings beat was negative, indicating that market sentiment may be influenced by factors beyond immediate earnings performance, such as insider selling or broader market conditions.
Key Risks
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) faces significant risk from heavy insider selling, with $270 million in dispositions against minimal purchases, which could signal a lack of confidence from management. The stock is also trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating potential near-term weakness and resistance at that level. Also, the company's elevated P/E ratio of 35.43, while supported by strong growth, could make it vulnerable to market corrections or a slowdown in its growth trajectory.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 52.64 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -6.02 |
| SMA 50 | 829.23 |
| SMA 200 | 789.56 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($829.23) above the 200-day SMA ($789.56), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.62
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.62
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with CAT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
CAT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$813.36
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$821.58
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$788.96
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (52.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$837.77
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$854.03
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$878.43
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for CAT is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CAT in September 2016 would be worth about $99,129 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CAT today could grow to about $39,298 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $140,818 and a bear case around $10,967. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CAT Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,420 for CAT by 2030 in the base case, from $822 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $634. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CAT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $629 | $942 | $1,410 |
| 2028 | $610 | $1,080 | $1,912 |
| 2029 | $616 | $1,239 | $2,492 |
| 2030 | $634 | $1,420 | $3,184 |
| 2031 | $661 | $1,629 | $4,016 |
| 2032 | $695 | $1,868 | $5,019 |
| 2033 | $736 | $2,141 | $6,230 |
| 2034 | $784 | $2,456 | $7,690 |
| 2035 | $839 | $2,816 | $9,450 |
| 2036 | $901 | $3,229 | $11,569 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CAT's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
CAT Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$542.0K
4 Transactions
Sold
$270.0M
34 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$7.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | JOHNSON DENISE C.
Officer
|
Sell | 39.1K | $26.7M |
| Aug 28, 2026 | CREED JOSEPH E
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 32.4K | $26.2M |
| May 6, 2026 | DE LANGE BOB
Officer
|
Sell | 24.2K | $22.4M |
| Mar 8, 2021 | JOHNSON DENISE C
Officer
|
Sell | 80.7K | $17.7M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | DE LANGE BOB
Officer
|
Sell | 22.7K | $16.3M |
| May 11, 2026 | FASSINO ANTHONY D.
Officer
|
Sell | 16.3K | $14.9M |
| May 6, 2026 | BONFIELD ANDREW ROBERT JOHN
Officer
|
Sell | 15.7K | $14.4M |
| Mar 8, 2021 | LONG SUZETTE M
General Counsel
|
Sell | 59.3K | $13.0M |
| Aug 3, 2023 | JOHNSON DENISE C.
Officer
|
Sell | 41.7K | $11.7M |
| May 14, 2026 | JOHNSON DENISE C.
Officer
|
Sell | 12.6K | $11.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Caterpillar Inc.'s consensus rating?
Caterpillar Inc. currently holds a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. This rating is based on a weighted average of analyst recommendations, reflecting a balanced view of the stock's prospects.
What is Caterpillar Inc.'s stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Caterpillar Inc.'s stock forecast for 2030 includes a base case price of $1,420.35, a downside projection of $633.62, and an upside projection of $3,183.91. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is Caterpillar Inc. stock a buy right now?
Caterpillar Inc. stock is currently rated as a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $980.50, suggesting a 19.3% upside potential. While the company shows strong revenue growth and profitability, significant insider selling and trading below its 50-day moving average warrant a cautious approach.
What are the key risks for Caterpillar Inc.?
The primary risks for Caterpillar Inc. include substantial insider selling totaling $270 million, which may indicate management concerns. Additionally, the stock is trading below its 50-day moving average, presenting near-term resistance, and its P/E ratio of 35.43 is elevated, making it susceptible to market downturns.
How does Caterpillar Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Caterpillar Inc. outperforms its sector averages in revenue growth (24% vs. 11.7%) and return on equity (56.97% vs. 17.8%). However, its P/E ratio of 35.43 is slightly above the sector median of 34.0, and its debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33 is notably higher than the sector average.
What is Caterpillar Inc.'s recent earnings performance?
Caterpillar Inc. has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters, including a significant beat in the quarter ending June 2026. Despite positive earnings surprises, the stock experienced a minor decline following the latest report, suggesting other market factors are influencing price action.
What is the sentiment regarding insider transactions at Caterpillar Inc.?
Insider sentiment at Caterpillar Inc. is currently bearish, with a 'Heavy Sell Signal' indicated. Insiders have sold $270 million worth of stock, significantly outweighing the $542K in purchases, suggesting a lack of confidence from management in the near term.