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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

$730.69 -4.950 (-0.67%)
At close: Oct 16, 4:00 PM EDT
Hold
47 / 100
CleaRank AI scorei
Market cap
$338.16B
P/E
33.27
Dividend yield
0.83%
Street target
$975.00median of 28 analysts
52-week range
$510.21 $1,073.46
01

The short version

Where CAT stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.

CAT at a glance

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): Hold, 47/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($812.93 and $805.78).
  • Earnings CAT beat estimates in 5 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after every one of them.
  • Insiders Insiders sold $270.0M and bought $542K over the last 18 months.
  • Valuation P/E of 33.3 against 34.0 for the Industrials sector: broadly in line with peers (-2%).

Figures as of October 16, 2026.

CleaRank Financial AI

CleaRank rates Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Hold, with a model score of 47/100.

The analysts' outlook is the biggest contributor to the score: 15 of 28 analysts rate it a buy, and the median target is 33.4% above the price. The trend is the largest drag, with the price 9.32% below its 200-day average and 10.12% below its 50-day average. The 50-day average is $812.93 and the 200-day is $805.78. Across the past year, the price rose 36.68%.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from CAT's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.

02

Price and trading

The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.

2.0

Trend checks

1/4
  • Price above its 50-day average ›
    The price of $730.69 is 10.1% below the 50-day simple moving average of $812.93.
  • Price above its 200-day average ›
    The price is 9.3% below the 200-day simple moving average of $805.78.
  • 50-day average above the 200-day ›
    The 50-day average ($812.93) is 0.9% above the 200-day average ($805.78), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.
  • In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
    The price sits at 39% of its 52-week range, between $510.21 and $1,073.46.

CAT share price

Pick a period: each tab shows how far CAT has moved over it, to the last close.

Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
Start $540.96 Oct 16, 2025
Latest close $739.39 Oct 16, 2026
High $1,064.90 Jun 30, 2026
Low $513.91 Oct 22, 2025

Today's trading

Where CAT sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.

Day range 1.96% wide
$730.69
$728.69 $742.98
52-week range 39% of the way up
$730.69
$510.21 $1,073.46
Open
$734.36
Previous close
$735.64
Volume
5.84M
86% above average
Market cap
$338.16B
03

Fundamentals

Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.

3.0

Valuation and quality checks

4/5
  • P/E below the sector median ›
    The trailing P/E of 33.27 is 2.1% below the Industrials median of 34.0.
  • P/S below the sector median ›
    The price-to-sales ratio of 4.61 is 15.2% above the sector median of 4.0.
  • Profitable over the last 12 months ›
    Net income over the last 12 months was $10.8B on revenue of $74.7B, a net margin of 14.5%.
  • Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
    CAT beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
  • Pays a dividend ›
    The trailing dividend yield is 0.83%, or $6.16 a share a year.

Key statistics

The headline figures for CAT.

Market Cap
338.16B
P/E Ratio
33.27
EPS (TTM)
22.51
Dividend Yield
0.83%
52 Week High
1,073.46
52 Week Low
510.21

As of October 16, 2026, CAT trades at $730.69, with a market value of $338.16B, a P/E ratio of 33.27 and a dividend yield of 0.83%.

What the numbers say

CleaRank Financial AI's reading of CAT's valuation, growth and risks.

Valuation

CAT's P/E of 33.27 is 2.1% below the 34.0 median P/E of Industrials stocks, so the P/E is broadly in line with peers. Measured against sales, the company trades at 4.61 times, 15.3% above the sector median P/S of 4.0. Its market capitalisation stands at $338.2B.

With revenue growth of 24.00%, CAT is 12.3 percentage points faster than the sector median of 11.7%. The business converts sales into profit at a net margin of 14.51% and an operating margin of 22.18%. Shareholders' capital earns 56.97%, above the sector median of 17.8%, measured as return on equity. The balance sheet and payout round out the picture, with debt-to-equity of 2.33 and a trailing dividend yield of 0.83% ($6.16 a share a year).

Earnings & Growth

Caterpillar's most recent report, dated August 4, 2026, showed EPS of $8.17, which beat an estimate of $6.20 by 31.77%. The share price nonetheless slipped 0.62% in the first session after the report.

CAT has beaten the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, but the stock fell in the first session after each of those 5 beats. For this fiscal year, analysts expect average EPS of $27.20, a rise of 42.7%. Next year's average estimate is $32.42, growth of 19.2%.

Key risks

CAT's daily returns have a 30-day standard deviation of 1.97%. While the price stays below its moving averages, the trend leans against holders. The stock is 31.93% under its 52-week high of $1,073.46. Over the last 18 months insiders sold $270.0M of stock and bought $542K. Sales like these are often planned in advance or made to cover tax on vesting shares, so they carry less weight than open-market purchases.

CAT against the Industrials sector

How CAT compares with the median Industrials stock CleaRank tracks.

P/E ratio 2% below the median
CAT
33.3x
Sector median
34.0x
P/S ratio 15% above the median
CAT
4.6x
Sector median
4.0x
Revenue growth, year on year 12.3 points above the median
CAT
24.0%
Sector median
11.7%
Return on equity 39.2 points above the median
CAT
57.0%
Sector median
17.8%

Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-2% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.

Return vs XLI: Since May 6, 2025, CAT has gained 130.4% against a gain of 25.6% for XLI.

Performance against XLI

CAT and the Industrials sector fund over the same days.

Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Apr '26Jul '26Oct '26
CAT XLI

Revenue and earnings

How much CAT sells, and how much of it becomes profit.

Revenue, 12 months
$74.7B
Net income, 12 months
$10.8B
Net margin
14.5%
Revenue growth
+24.0%
latest quarter, year on year
FY202113% marginFY202211% marginFY202315% marginFY202417% marginFY202513% margin
Revenue Net income

Revenue growth: Revenue grew 4.3% in FY2025 to $67.6B, from $64.8B a year earlier.

Profit margin: The net margin was 13.1% in FY2025, down from 16.6% the year before.

Profitable: CAT earned $8.9B in FY2025.

Earnings reality check

Did CAT beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?

Beat the estimate
5 of 8
last 8 reports
Fell after a beat
5 of 5
first session after the report
Average surprise
+7.9%
actual EPS against the estimate
Avg. first-session move
-0.5%
the stock, after the report
EPS surprise
First-session move
Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Aug '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Aug '26

Earnings record: CAT beat the analyst estimate in 5 of the last 8 quarters.

Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 5 of those 5 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.

CAT earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report Estimate Actual Surprise First session 5 sessions
Aug 4, 2026after close $6.20 $8.17 +31.77% -0.62% -3.78%
Apr 30, 2026after close $4.64 $5.54 +19.40% -0.05% +0.63%
Jan 29, 2026after close $4.71 $5.16 +9.55% -1.18% +1.96%
Oct 29, 2025after close $4.52 $4.95 +9.51% -0.40% -2.79%
Aug 5, 2025after close $4.90 $4.72 -3.67% -1.50% -4.96%
Apr 30, 2025after close $4.34 $4.25 -2.07% +1.52% +3.56%
Jan 30, 2025after close $5.03 $5.14 +2.19% -0.94% -2.54%
Oct 30, 2024after close $5.35 $5.17 -3.36% -0.80% +9.93%

As of October 16, 2026, CAT has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 5 of those beats; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 31.77% above the estimate and the stock moved -0.62% in the first session.

The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.

04

AI analysis and technicals

CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.

4.0

Momentum checks

1/3
  • RSI not overbought or oversold ›
    The 14-day RSI is 32.8, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.
  • RSI above 50 ›
    An RSI of 32.8 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.
  • MACD line above zero ›
    The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.

CleaRank AI analysis of CAT

The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.

Company's health
4/5
12-month analyst target
$975.00
+33.44% above price · median of 28 analysts
AI analyst consensus
47/100
Hold
What the AI sees

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is in a downtrend: the price of $730.69 sits 9.32% below its 200-day average of $805.78 and 10.12% below its 50-day average of $812.93. The 50-day average is still 0.89% above the 200-day, but the price has already dropped beneath the shorter average. The stock is at 39% of its 52-week range, which runs from $510.21 to $1,073.46, and sits 31.93% below that high.

A recent pullback sits inside a stronger longer record: the price fell 5.54% over the past month, fell 16.01% over the past three months and rose 36.68% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 32.8 is in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, and the MACD line is negative. Volume in the last session ran 86.2% above its average, on a day the price fell 0.67%.

Catalysts
Rewards
  • Analyst upgrade ›

    Freedom Broker upgraded it to Buy from Hold on September 10, 2026.

    Source: Analyst action, Freedom Broker, September 10, 2026
  • Rating reaffirmed ›

    Citigroup kept its Buy rating on October 12, 2026.

    Source: Analyst action, Citigroup, October 12, 2026
Risks
  • Earnings beat ›

    The August 4, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 31.77%, and the share price fell 0.62% in the first session after it.

    Source: Earnings report, August 4, 2026
ProTips
  1. Keep an eye on the two closest levels: the 20-day EMA at $794.00 overhead and the 52-week low at $510.21 underneath.
  2. With the 14-day RSI at 32.8, momentum reads as bearish, and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
  3. The share price fell 0.62% in the first session after the August 4, 2026 report, even though CAT has beaten estimates in 5 of the last 8 reports.
Market outlook

CAT sits below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($812.93 and $805.78), and that placement is why the trend reads as down. A recovery back above the 200-day would be the first sign of repair. Just above the price, the 20-day EMA at $794.00 is the nearest level a rally would meet.

The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $510.21. With the RSI in the bearish zone, momentum still leans toward lower prices.

Technical indicators

Momentum and trend for CAT, from its daily closes.

Technical rating Bearish 1 of 4 signals bullish
  • RSI Bearish
  • SMA cross Neutral
  • Price vs SMA Bearish
  • MACD Bearish
Momentum Bearish
32.814-day RSI
Oversold <30 Neutral Overbought >70
MACD (12, 26) -17.01 Bearish
Trend No clear cross
-10.1%price against the 50-day average
200-day $805.78 50-day $812.93 Price $730.69
Price against the 200-day -9.3% Bearish

As of October 16, 2026, with CAT at $730.69, its 14-day RSI is 32.8 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $812.93 and its 200-day is $805.78.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

What CAT moves with

Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.

-1 0 +1
S&P 500 (SPY) +0.62 Moderate
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.61 Moderate
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.22 Weak
Gold (XAU) +0.19 Weak

As of October 16, 2026, CAT's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.62 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.61 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.22 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.19 with gold (XAU).

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05

What Wall Street expects

The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.

5.0

Analysts checks

3/3
  • Most analysts rate it a buy ›
    15 of 28 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 11 a hold and 2 a sell.
  • Median target above the price ›
    The median 12-month target of $975.00 is 33.4% above the price.
  • More buy ratings than three months ago ›
    15 of 28 rate it a buy now, against 14 of 28 three months ago.

CAT Wall Street View

12-month price targets

Low $575.00 Median $975.00 (+33.4%) High $1,155.00

Ratings

Buy 15 Hold 11 Sell 2 3 months ago: 14 of 28 buy

Recent rating actions

Recent analyst rating actions on CAT
Date Firm Action Rating
Oct 12, 2026 Citigroup Maintains Buy
Oct 5, 2026 Truist Securities Maintains Buy
Sep 10, 2026 Freedom Broker Upgrade Buy
Aug 11, 2026 Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform
Aug 6, 2026 DA Davidson Maintains Neutral
Aug 6, 2026 Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight

As of October 16, 2026, 28 Wall Street analysts cover CAT: 15 rate it a buy or strong buy, 11 a hold and 2 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $575.00 to $1,155.00, with a median of $975.00, 33.4% above the price of $730.69.

Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.

06

A trade plan, if you want one

Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.

CAT trade plan

Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.

Your bias
Risk per trade 2%
Conservative Aggressive
Portfolio value
$
Position size: Enter portfolio size →

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Conservative
$723.38
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$730.69
At current price
Enter now if confident

Risk management

Stop loss
$701.68
Max loss
-3.0%
Volatility-adjusted stop Set from the RSI (32.8) and recent volatility.

Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Target 1
$745.08
+3% (Conservative) +2.0% (Aggressive)
Target 2
$759.55
+5% (Conservative) +4.0% (Aggressive)
Target 3
$781.25
+8% (Conservative) +6.9% (Aggressive)

These levels come from CAT's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Risk profile

How much CAT tends to move, against the market and on its own.

Daily volatility
1.97%
30-day standard deviation
52-week range
$730.69
$510.21 39% of the way up $1,073.46

Compare CAT

Put CAT side by side with other stocks and benchmarks.

07

The long record

CAT's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.

7.0

Track record checks

4/4
  • Average daily move under 2% ›
    The price has moved 1.97% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).
  • Recovered from its worst fall ›
    The worst fall was 42.6%, from January 2018 to March 2020, regained by October 2020.
  • Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
    76% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.
  • Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
    $10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $104,810, against $42,525 in the S&P 500 (SPY).

CAT Drawdowns & Recovery

Worst fall, last 10 years
-42.6%
January 2018 to March 2020
Recovery
7 months
back at the old peak by October 2020
From the 10-year high
-31.4%
highest close, June 2026
1-year holds that gained
76%
of every 1-year window

As of October 16, 2026, CAT's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -42.6% (January 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by October 2020, 7 months after the low, and 76% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.

From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.

Growth of $10,000

What $10,000 put into CAT in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.

CAT today
$104,810
from $10,000 in October 2016, dividends reinvested
S&P 500 today
$42,525
the same $10,000 in SPY
Ahead of the index by
$62,284
2.5x the index result
Total change
+948%
10.5x the starting amount
20182020202220242026
CAT S&P 500 (SPY)

Against the market: CAT beat the S&P 500 over this period: $104,810 against $42,525.

A $10,000 investment in CAT in October 2016 would be worth about $104,810 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,525 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).

Seasonal patterns

Which calendar months have been kind to CAT, and which have not.

Jan8/10 upFeb4/10 upMar4/10 upApr6/10 upMay6/10 upJun6/10 upJul7/10 upAug6/10 upSep8/10 upOct7/9 upNov9/10 upDec7/10 up

Strongest month, November: an average of +7.57%, up in 9 of 10 years.

Weakest month, March: an average of -1.49%, up in 4 of 10 years.

This month, October: has averaged +3.62%, up in 7 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.

Over the last 10 years, CAT's strongest calendar month has been November (average +7.57%, up in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -1.49%, up in 4 of 10 years).

Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.

08

Long-term scenarios

Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.

Monte Carlo projection

Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in CAT, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.

Downside, 2036
$7,733
10th percentile
Base case, 2036
$27,805
median path
Upside, 2036
$99,977
90th percentile
202620282030203220342036
Upside (90th) Base case (median) Downside (10th) 10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CAT today could grow to about $27,805 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $99,977 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,733. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.83% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

CAT Stock Price Prediction: 2030

The same simulation in share prices, year by year.

Price today
$731
Base case, 2030
$1,100
1.5x over 4 years
Range, 2030
$490 to $2,471
10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,100 for CAT by 2030 in the base case, from $731 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $490. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CAT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.

CAT simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile range base today
2027 $540 $809 $1,213
2028 $506 $897 $1,589
2029 $493 $993 $2,002
2030 $490 $1,100 $2,471
2031 $493 $1,218 $3,012

Method: a lognormal simulation of CAT's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

09

Insider trading

What the people running the company have bought and sold.

CAT insider trading

Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.

Bought
$542K
4 open-market purchases
Sold
$270.0M
34 open-market sales
Insiders filing
20
over the last 18 months
Average trade
$7.1M
buys and sales together

Month by month

Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.

May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26Oct '26

Insider buying: Insiders bought $542K on the open market and sold $270.0M.

As of October 16, 2026, CAT insiders reported 34 open-market sales worth $270.0M and 4 open-market purchases worth $542K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.

Insider transactions in CAT
Date Insider Type Shares Value
Aug 28, 2026
Joseph E Creed
Chief Executive Officer
Sell 32.4K $26.2M
Aug 28, 2026
Joseph E Creed
Chief Executive Officer
Option 44.4K $9.8M
Jun 10, 2026
James C Fish Jr
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
Gerald Johnson
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
Nazzic S Keene
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
David W Maclennan
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
Judith Fran Marks
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
Debra L Reed-Klages
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
Susan C Schwab
Director
Grant 211 -
Jun 10, 2026
Rayfordjr Wilkins
Director
Grant 211 -
Page 1 of 11

Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings

10

Questions people ask

Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) a buy right now?
CleaRank's model scores CAT 47/100, a Hold rating. The analysts' outlook carries the score: 15 of 28 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 33.4% above the price. The trend holds the score back, because the price is 9.32% below its 200-day average and 10.12% below its 50-day average. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation.
How has Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) performed over the past year?
Over the past year the price rose 36.68%. Over shorter periods it fell 16.01% in three months and fell 5.54% in the past month. It now trades 31.93% below its 52-week high of $1,073.46.
What are the key price levels for CAT?
The nearest level above the price is the 20-day EMA at $794.00, followed by the 200-day SMA at $805.78. The closest level below is the 52-week low at $510.21.
Is CAT expensive compared with Industrials stocks?
CAT's trailing P/E of 33.27 is 2.1% below the Industrials median of 34.0, and the Peer Benchmarking card calls it broadly in line with peers. The price-to-sales ratio of 4.61 sits 15.3% above the sector median of 4.0. These medians are drawn from 66 stocks across the whole sector, not just direct competitors.
Does CAT pay a dividend?
Yes. CAT pays a trailing dividend yield of 0.83%, which works out to $6.16 per share each year. Yield is the dividend divided by the share price, so it moves whenever either of those moves.
What do Wall Street analysts think of CAT?
Of the 28 analysts who cover CAT, 15 rate it a buy, 11 hold and 2 sell. Their median 12-month target of $975.00 is 33.4% above the current price.
How often has CAT beaten earnings estimates?
CAT beat the EPS estimate in 5 of the last 8 reports in our data. In 5 of those 5 beats, the share price was lower in the first session after the report.
How volatile is CAT?
On an average day, CAT's price moves 1.97%, based on the 30-day standard deviation of daily returns.
Are CAT insiders buying or selling?
Insiders sold $270.0M of stock over the last 18 months and bought $542K on the open market. Because sales are often planned in advance or made to cover tax on vesting shares, they tell an investor less than purchases do.
What is the 52-week range of CAT?
Over the past 52 weeks, CAT has traded between $510.21 and $1,073.46. At $730.69, the stock sits at 39% of that range, 43.21% above the low and 31.93% below the high.

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial regulatory body. The stock analysis, trade plans, and AI-generated signals presented for CAT are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. All trade setups and performance metrics shown are hypothetical, hindsight-based, and simulated. They do not represent actual trades made by CleaRank or its affiliates. Stock prices can be volatile and are subject to market, economic, and company-specific risks. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed by 15 minutes or more. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on October 17, 2026.

Disclaimer:

Engaging in financial markets carries significant risk of total capital loss. Markets are volatile, unpredictable, and past success does not guarantee future results. Never invest funds you cannot afford to lose. CleaRank does not offer financial, investment, or advisory services. We provide no recommendations, endorsements, or guarantees regarding market outcomes. You alone are responsible for your decisions.

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