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NXP Semiconductors N.V. vs ON Semiconductor
VS
ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation NASDAQ
$77.53
▼ 2.37%
Comparative Analysis
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) wins this head-to-head comparison against ON Semiconductor (ON) primarily due to its superior profitability and stronger analyst sentiment, despite ON Semiconductor showing more consistent recent earnings beats. NXPI's higher net profit margin and return on equity present a more compelling fundamental picture. While ON Semiconductor has a wider analyst buy rating consensus, NXPI's median target price suggests greater upside potential from current levels. Both stocks are trading below their 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish technical trend for both, but NXPI's valuation metrics appear more attractive relative to its profitability.
Key Differentiator
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) distinguishes itself through its significantly stronger profitability metrics, including a net profit margin and return on equity that are more than double those of ON Semiconductor (ON). This superior operational efficiency, combined with a more attractive valuation and higher dividend yield, provides a stronger fundamental case for NXPI despite its recent earnings stumble.
Joint Outlook
The outlook for both NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and ON Semiconductor (ON) is cautiously optimistic, contingent on the broader semiconductor market recovery. NXPI's strong profitability and attractive valuation provide a solid foundation, but its recent earnings miss necessitates a close watch on future guidance. If NXPI can regain analyst confidence and show a return to positive earnings surprises, it could see significant upside towards its median target of $310. ON Semiconductor faces the challenge of justifying its higher valuation; a sustained period of strong earnings beats and positive analyst revisions could push it towards its $100 target, but any stumbles could lead to a sharp correction.
Price Analysis Comparison
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | NXPI | ON |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.21 | 48.98 |
| Market Cap | 57.37B | 30.18B |
| Price/Sales | 4.30 | 4.77 |
| Price/Book | 4.98 | 4.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.31 | 15.78 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.78% | N/A |
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) trades at a P/E ratio of 19.21, which is significantly lower than ON Semiconductor's (ON) P/E of 48.98. This suggests NXPI is more attractively valued on a traditional earnings multiple basis. While both companies have positive revenue growth, NXPI's revenue growth of 19.5% outpaces ON Semiconductor's 9.2%. NXPI's market capitalization of $57.37 billion is also larger than ON Semiconductor's $30.18 billion, indicating a more established player in the semiconductor space.
Profitability & Efficiency
| Metric | NXPI | ON |
|---|---|---|
| Rev. Growth (Qtly) | 19.50% | 9.20% |
| Profit Margin | 22.56% | 10.17% |
| Return on Equity | 27.92% | 8.31% |
| Return on Assets | 10.46% | 6.75% |
| Debt/Equity | 93.33 | 65.06 |
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) exhibits superior profitability compared to ON Semiconductor (ON). NXPI boasts a net profit margin of 22.56% and a return on equity of 27.92%, both considerably higher than ON Semiconductor's net profit margin of 10.17% and return on equity of 8.31%. Also, NXPI's return on assets at 10.46% also surpasses ON Semiconductor's 6.75%. These figures indicate that NXPI is more efficient at generating profits from its revenue and shareholder investments.
Earnings Reality Check
NXPI
Last 2 Qs: NXPI beat estimates 1x out of 2. Rose 1x after beats.
ON
Last 4 Qs: ON beat estimates 3x out of 4. Rose 2x after beats.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | NXPI | ON |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.16 | 60.24 |
| 50-Day MA | $230.60 | $76.42 |
| 200-Day MA | $245.95 | $81.14 |
Both NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and ON Semiconductor (ON) are currently trading below their 200-day moving averages, with NXPI at $227.52 versus its SMA 200 of $245.95 and ON at $77.53 versus its SMA 200 of $81.14. This suggests a bearish trend for both stocks. NXPI's RSI of 45.16 indicates it is in oversold territory, while ON Semiconductor's RSI of 60.24 suggests it is in neutral momentum. NXPI's MACD of 0.788 is trending lower, whereas ON Semiconductor's MACD of 1.670 is trending higher, hinting at potential near-term divergence.
AI Analyst Sentiment
Technical rating: based on current price action versus moving averages and momentum. This measures short-term chart trend, not analyst opinion or company fundamentals.
NXPI
Technical Score: 55/100
ON
Technical Score: 55/100
Analyst sentiment favors NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), with a median target price of $310, suggesting approximately 36% upside from its current price of $227.52. NXPI has a 'Strong Buy' rating from 6 analysts and a 'Buy' from 16. ON Semiconductor (ON) has a median target price of $100, indicating about 29% upside from its current price of $77.53. ON Semiconductor has a more balanced analyst rating distribution, with 2 'Strong Buys' and 12 'Buys', but also 16 'Holds'.
Risk Stratification
| Metric | NXPI | ON |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (Volatility) | 1.81 | 2.05 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.06 | 0.28 |
For NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), the primary risk is the recent significant earnings miss, which could signal underlying operational issues or a sharper than anticipated downturn in its end markets. Its current trading price below key moving averages also presents technical downside risk. For ON Semiconductor (ON), the main risk lies in its high P/E valuation, which makes it more susceptible to market corrections if growth expectations are not met. The mixed analyst ratings also suggest uncertainty about its future performance, and the stock's recent price action has been volatile.
Comparative ProTips
- Consider NXPI for its superior profitability and valuation, but monitor upcoming earnings for signs of recovery from the recent miss.
- ON Semiconductor's high P/E warrants caution; investors should look for sustained earnings growth to justify the current multiple.
- Both stocks are in a technical downtrend, suggesting potential for further downside until key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
Actionable Trade Plans
Compare entry, exit, and risk management levels for both assets
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
NXPI
Current: $227.52
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$216.14
Aggressive
$227.52
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$209.66
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5%
$226.95
+10%
$237.76
+15%
$248.57
ON
Current: $77.53
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$73.65
Aggressive
$77.53
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$71.44
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5%
$77.34
+10%
$81.02
+15%
$84.70
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This comparison involves assets with varying risk profiles. The content is for educational purposes only. Comparison includes a higher-volatility asset (ON). Correlations between assets with different volatility profiles can break down rapidly during market stress. Liquidity risks may prevent execution at displayed prices. Note: The AI favored NXPI based on profitability metrics. This is valid for the specified timeframe only.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is a better buy, NXPI or ON?+
NXPI is the preferred buy due to its superior profitability and more attractive valuation. While ON has shown more consistent recent earnings beats, NXPI's higher margins and dividend yield present a stronger long-term investment case.
What are the key risks for NXPI vs ON?+
NXPI's key risk is its recent large earnings miss, while ON Semiconductor's primary risk is its high P/E valuation and mixed analyst sentiment.
How do NXPI and ON compare on valuation?+
NXPI trades at a P/E of 19.21 compared to ON's 48.98, making NXPI significantly cheaper on an earnings multiple basis. NXPI also offers a 1.78% dividend yield, while ON pays none.
What is the profitability difference between NXPI and ON?+
NXPI's net profit margin is 22.56% and its return on equity is 27.92%, substantially outperforming ON's 10.17% net profit margin and 8.31% return on equity.
How do the technical trends compare for NXPI and ON?+
Both stocks are below their 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish trends. NXPI's RSI is oversold (45.16) while ON's is neutral (60.24).
What do analysts think of NXPI and ON?+
Analysts favor NXPI with a median target of $310 and a 'Strong Buy' consensus from 6 analysts. ON has a median target of $100 but a more mixed rating profile with 16 'Holds'.