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As of September 27, 2026, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades at $287.64. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $390.00, 35.6% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $390.00 across 11 analysts. RSI at 58 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $280.65.
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)
Onto Innovation Inc. NYSE
$287.64
7.910 (2.83%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is currently trading at $287.64, reflecting a neutral momentum according to its RSI. The stock is positioned above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.65 and $249.91), indicating a generally positive trend. Analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $390, suggesting a 35.6% upside from current levels. The company operates in the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector, a field experiencing significant growth. Onto Innovation's recent earnings have shown strong performance, with the quarter to June 2026 beating estimates by 14.2% and driving a 14.74% stock price increase. This positive earnings trend, coupled with strong revenue growth estimates of +80.00% for the current quarter and +43.00% for the full year, underpins the optimistic outlook.
ONTO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$281.94
Day Range
$281.00 to $290.00
Prev Close
$279.73
Volume
417.4K
52-Week Range
$111.37 to $386.46
Market Cap
$17.58B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+216%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
ONTO Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ONTO beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
ONTO Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+35.59% Upside
Median of 11 analysts (12-month)
$390.00
AI Technical Analysis
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is currently trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average of $280.65 and its 200-day Simple Moving Average of $249.91. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.7, indicating neutral momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is at 95.28, suggesting it is approaching overbought territory. The nearest support level is the 50-day SMA at $280.65, with resistance potentially forming near its recent highs. Volume on the latest trading day was 417,400, which is approximately 53.9% below the average volume, suggesting a lack of strong conviction in the current price action. The MACD is slightly negative at -1.81, hinting at a potential short-term consolidation.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling activity closely, as $302.3K in sales across 28 transactions suggests some caution from management.
- The stock is approaching overbought territory on the Stochastic Oscillator, indicating a potential for a short-term pullback. Consider waiting for a more favorable entry point or using tighter stop-losses.
- Given the high P/E ratio, ensure that Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) continues to meet or exceed its aggressive revenue and EPS growth targets to justify its current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Q2 2026 Earnings Beat
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) exceeded Q2 2026 EPS estimates by 14.2% ($1.93 vs $1.69), driving a 14.74% stock price increase and signaling strong operational performance.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast substantial revenue growth, with an 80.00% year-over-year increase expected for the current quarter and 43.00% for the full year, indicating strong market demand for ONTO's products.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
The consensus 'Buy' rating from 11 analysts, with a median price target of $390.00, indicates strong institutional confidence in Onto Innovation Inc.'s future prospects.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Insider Selling Activity
Recent insider transactions show net selling totaling $302.3K, with no reported purchases, which could signal a lack of confidence from management at current price levels.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Approaching Overbought Technical Levels
The Stochastic Oscillator is nearing overbought territory, suggesting that the stock may be due for a short-term consolidation or pullback.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strong demand in the semiconductor equipment market and positive analyst sentiment. The median price target of $390.00 suggests a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price of $287.64, supported by strong revenue growth estimates and a history of beating earnings expectations. The company's outlook is further bolstered by strong forward-looking EPS estimates and significant projected revenue increases. Key catalysts include continued innovation in semiconductor technology and potential market share gains. However, the premium valuation and moderate insider selling present risks that could temper upside potential if growth falters.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 17.58B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 107.33 |
| EPS (TTM) | 2.68 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 386.46 |
| 52 Week Low | 111.37 |
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 107.33, significantly above the sector median of 34.0, suggesting a premium valuation. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 15.70, also considerably higher than the sector median of 7.5. The company's profitability metrics show a Net Profit Margin of 11.84% and an Operating Margin of 22.97%, both exceeding the sector median ROE of 13.4%. However, its Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.77 is slightly above the sector average. The strong revenue growth of 35.3% reported by the company, and projected growth of 43.00% for the current year, justifies some of this premium, but investors should monitor if future growth meets these high expectations.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) delivered a strong performance in the quarter to June 2026, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.93 against an estimate of $1.69, a positive surprise of 14.2%, which led to a 14.74% increase in its stock price. This follows a pattern of meeting or beating estimates in recent quarters, with the company achieving zero surprise in the prior two quarters and a 5.75% beat in the quarter to September 2025. Forward-looking estimates are strong, with current year EPS projected at $8.11 and next year at $11.69, representing significant year-over-year growth. Revenue estimates also show strong upward momentum, with current quarter sales projected to grow by 80.00% year-over-year.
Key Risks
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) faces valuation risk, trading at a P/E ratio significantly above the sector median, which could lead to increased volatility if growth expectations are not met. Insider selling, with $302.3K in total sales across 28 transactions and no reported purchases, warrants attention as a potential indicator of management caution. Also, the company's stock is approaching overbought territory according to its Stochastic Oscillator, suggesting a potential for a short-term pullback. Competition within the semiconductor equipment sector is also intense, requiring continuous innovation and execution to maintain market share.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 57.70 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.81 |
| SMA 50 | 280.65 |
| SMA 200 | 249.91 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($280.65) above the 200-day SMA ($249.91), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.56
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.64
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with ONTO? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
ONTO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$281.89
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$287.64
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$262.16
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (57.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$295.98
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$310.08
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$324.17
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
ONTO is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 4.39%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ONTO in October 2019 would be worth about $81,415 today, compared with about $25,432 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ONTO today could grow to about $47,385 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $359,489 and a bear case around $6,246. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ONTO Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $536 for ONTO by 2030 in the base case, from $288 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $149. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ONTO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $177 | $336 | $638 |
| 2028 | $159 | $393 | $972 |
| 2029 | $151 | $459 | $1,392 |
| 2030 | $149 | $536 | $1,931 |
| 2031 | $149 | $626 | $2,624 |
| 2032 | $152 | $732 | $3,515 |
| 2033 | $157 | $855 | $4,657 |
| 2034 | $163 | $999 | $6,116 |
| 2035 | $171 | $1,167 | $7,976 |
| 2036 | $180 | $1,363 | $10,340 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ONTO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. ONTO is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ONTO Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$302.3K
1 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$302.3K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2021 | RHINE BRUCE C
Director
|
Sell | 145.3K | $8.8M |
| Jan 21, 2025 | PLISINSKI MICHAEL P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 35.0K | $7.7M |
| Mar 20, 2024 | PLISINSKI MICHAEL P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $7.0M |
| Jan 16, 2025 | PLISINSKI MICHAEL P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $6.3M |
| Feb 15, 2022 | RHINE BRUCE C
Director
|
Sell | 61.1K | $5.5M |
| Nov 1, 2021 | RHINE BRUCE C
Director
|
Sell | 50.0K | $4.0M |
| Jan 14, 2025 | PLISINSKI MICHAEL P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 20.0K | $4.0M |
| Nov 5, 2020 | RHINE BRUCE C
Director
|
Sell | 100.0K | $3.7M |
| Apr 13, 2021 | RHINE BRUCE C
Director
|
Sell | 50.0K | $3.5M |
| Aug 21, 2023 | PLISINSKI MICHAEL P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 31.0K | $3.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Onto Innovation Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) has a projected base case price of $535.93 for 2030. The downside projection is $148.77, and the upside projection is $1930.62. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets.
Is Onto Innovation Inc. stock a buy right now?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is currently rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $390.00, suggesting a 35.6% upside from its current price of $287.64. The stock is trading above key moving averages and shows strong revenue growth estimates.
What are the key technical levels for Onto Innovation Inc.?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is trading above its 50-day SMA ($280.65) and 200-day SMA ($249.91), indicating an uptrend. The RSI is neutral at 57.7, but the Stochastic Oscillator is nearing overbought levels at 95.28, suggesting potential for consolidation.
What is the recent earnings performance of Onto Innovation Inc.?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) beat earnings estimates by 14.2% in the quarter to June 2026, reporting $1.93 EPS against an estimate of $1.69. This positive surprise drove a 14.74% increase in the stock price.
How does Onto Innovation Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades at a higher P/E (107.33 vs 34.0) and P/S (15.70 vs 7.5) compared to the sector median. However, its revenue growth (35.3%) and profit margins are strong, and its Debt-to-Equity ratio (0.77) is comparable to the sector.
Are insiders buying or selling Onto Innovation Inc. stock?
Insiders at Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) are net sellers, with total sales of $302.3K in recent filings and no reported purchases. This 'Moderate Sell Signal' suggests caution among management regarding the stock's current valuation.
What is the outlook for Onto Innovation Inc.'s revenue growth?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is expected to experience significant revenue growth, with current quarter sales projected to increase by 80.00% year-over-year and full-year sales anticipated to grow by 43.00%. Next year's revenue growth is estimated at 31.00%.