CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Michelle Sofia, Market Analyst. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is currently trading at $52.00, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($50.38 and $46.59), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The stock's 14-day RSI is at 63.83, signaling bullish momentum. However, the median Wall Street price target of $49.00 suggests a potential downside of -5.8% from the current price, contributing to a mixed analyst consensus. Fundamentally, Fastenal's valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 43.96, are significantly higher than the sector median of 34. While the company boasts strong profitability with a net profit margin of 15.45% and a return on equity of 34.33%, its price-to-sales ratio of 6.75 also exceeds the sector average. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 is well below the sector average, indicating a healthy balance sheet.
FAST at a glance
Fastenal Co. (FAST): Hold, 47/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendUp: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($50.38 and $46.59).
EarningsFAST beat estimates in 1 of its last 5 quarters, and the stock rose the next day every time.
InsidersInsiders sold $21.8M and bought $245K over the last 18 months.
ValuationP/E of 44.0 against 34.0 for the Industrials sector: a premium to peers (+29%).
As of October 15, 2026, Fastenal Co. (FAST) trades at $52.00. Wall Street's consensus target is $49.00 across 18 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 64, showing bullish momentum without being overbought, and the price is above its 50-day simple moving average of $50.38.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from FAST's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+29%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
FAST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 5 quarters, FAST beat the analyst estimate 1 time; the stock rose in the first session after every beat.
FAST earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Jul 14, 2026
$0.33
$0.33
+0.00%
-0.83%
-1.60%
Apr 13, 2026
$0.30
$0.30
+0.00%
-2.58%
-0.52%
Jan 20, 2026
$0.26
$0.26
+0.00%
+4.67%
+3.12%
Oct 13, 2025
$0.30
$0.29
-3.33%
+0.99%
+1.56%
Jul 14, 2025
$0.27
$0.29
+7.41%
+0.13%
+2.11%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 15, 2026, FAST has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 5 reported quarters and rose in the first trading session after that beat; its latest report, on July 14, 2026, came in 0.00% above the estimate and the stock moved -0.83% in the first session.
FAST Analysis
Company's Health4/5
12-Month Analyst Target-5.77% below price
Median of 18 analysts (12-month)
$49.00
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreHold
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is exhibiting strong upward momentum, trading above its 50-day SMA at $50.38 and its 200-day SMA at $46.59. The 14-day RSI is at 63.83, firmly in bullish territory, and the MACD indicator is positive at 0.45, reinforcing the bullish trend. The stock's volume has been significantly higher than average, with the latest volume at 25.4 million compared to an average of 8.4 million, a 202.8% increase, suggesting strong investor interest. Key support levels are now established around the 50-day SMA, while the current price of $52.00 acts as immediate support. Resistance is seen near the recent highs and the upper bounds of the current trading range. The overall chart structure indicates a stock in an uptrend, supported by strong volume, though the proximity to the median analyst target price warrants caution.
ProTips
Insider selling activity, totaling $21.8 million versus $244.6 thousand in purchases, suggests a 'Moderate Sell Signal' that investors should monitor closely.
Fastenal's stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($50.38 and $46.59), with bullish RSI momentum, indicating positive technical trends.
Key Catalysts
NeutralInsider Selling Continues
Insiders have been net sellers, with total sales of $21.8 million compared to $244.6 thousand in purchases across recent filings, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.
Source: Insider Trading Data
NeutralEarnings Meet Expectations
Recent earnings reports have consistently met analyst expectations, with EPS matching estimates in the last three reported quarters, suggesting stable operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings Reports
BullishStrong Revenue Growth
Fastenal is projected to achieve 13.00% revenue growth for the current year, outpacing the sector average and indicating strong market demand for its products.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
Market Outlook
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is expected to maintain its current momentum in the next 6-12 months, with a base case scenario suggesting potential for modest appreciation. The company's strong revenue growth and profitability, coupled with a healthy balance sheet, provide a solid foundation. However, the current valuation premium and a median analyst target price below the current stock price suggest limited near-term upside. The outlook could be positively impacted by continued strong demand in its industrial distribution markets and successful execution of its growth strategies. Conversely, a significant economic slowdown, increased competition, or a shift in investor sentiment towards value stocks could pressure the stock. The 'Moderate Sell Signal' from insider transactions also warrants monitoring.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
59.67B
P/E Ratio
43.96
EPS (TTM)
1.17
Dividend Yield
1.85%
52 Week High
52.92
52 Week Low
38.97
As of October 15, 2026, FAST trades at $52.00, with a market value of $59.67B, a P/E ratio of 43.96 and a dividend yield of 1.85%.
Fastenal Co. (FAST) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a P/E ratio of 43.96 significantly higher than the Industrials sector median of 34. This suggests the stock may be trading at a premium relative to its peers. The company's price-to-sales ratio of 6.75 also stands above the sector average of 4. Despite these valuation concerns, Fastenal demonstrates exceptional profitability, with a net profit margin of 15.45% and a return on equity of 34.33%, both considerably higher than sector medians. The company maintains a strong balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, well below the sector average. Revenue growth has been strong at 14.7%, outpacing the sector average of 11.7%. While valuation metrics suggest a premium, the company's strong operational efficiency and growth trajectory provide a solid foundation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Fastenal Co. (FAST) has consistently met or slightly missed analyst expectations in its recent earnings reports. The results reported on July 14, 2026, showed EPS of $0.33, exactly in line with the estimate, resulting in a minor price decline of -0.83%. Prior to that, the April 13, 2026, report also saw EPS match estimates with a -2.58% price change. The company has shown a pattern of delivering earnings close to analyst forecasts, with only one notable miss. Revenue growth remains strong, with current year estimates projecting a 13.00% increase year-over-year.
Key Risks
Fastenal Co. (FAST) faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with total sales of $21.8 million versus purchases of $244.6 thousand, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal'. The stock's valuation is also a concern, with its P/E ratio of 43.96 and price-to-sales ratio of 6.75 significantly exceeding sector averages.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
63.83
MACD (12, 26)
0.449
SMA (50-day)
50.38
SMA (200-day)
46.59
Technical RatingBullish
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($50.38) above the 200-day SMA ($46.59), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
As of October 15, 2026, with FAST at $52.00, its 14-day RSI is 63.8 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $50.38 and its 200-day is $46.59.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.41
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.30
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.05
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.05
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, FAST's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.41 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.30 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.05 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.05 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with FAST? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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FAST Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $39.90Median $49.00 (-5.8%)High $59.00
Ratings
Buy 6Hold 7Sell 53 months ago: 6 of 18 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on FAST
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Sep 15, 2026
Wolfe Research
Assumes
Underperform
Jul 16, 2026
Morgan Stanley
Maintains
Equal-Weight
Jul 16, 2026
Barclays
Maintains
Equal-Weight
Jul 15, 2026
DA Davidson
Maintains
Neutral
Jul 13, 2026
Rothschild & Co
Initiates
Buy
Jul 8, 2026
Morgan Stanley
Maintains
Equal-Weight
As of October 15, 2026, 18 Wall Street analysts cover FAST: 6 rate it a buy or strong buy, 7 a hold and 5 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $39.90 to $59.00, with a median of $49.00, 5.8% below the price of $52.00.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
FAST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$51.48
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$52.00
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$43.12
MAX LOSS
-16.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (63.8) and current market volatility
These levels come from FAST's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FAST in October 2016 would be worth about $54,351 today, compared with about $36,237 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
Compare with Another Ticker
FAST Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-27.8%
December 2021 to October 2022
Recovery
14 months
back at the old peak by December 2023
From the 10-year high
-0.7%
highest close, August 2026
1-year holds that gained
87%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, FAST's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -27.8% (December 2021 to October 2022); it regained that peak by December 2023, 14 months after the low, and 87% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FAST today could grow to about $25,878 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $76,293 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $8,778. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.85% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FAST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $76.06 for FAST by 2030 in the base case, from $52.00 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $38.39. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FAST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
FAST simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$40.63
$57.19
$80.50
2028
$38.78
$62.89
$102
2029
$38.26
$69.16
$125
2030
$38.39
$76.06
$151
2031
$38.95
$83.65
$180
Method: a lognormal simulation of FAST's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 15, 2026, FAST insiders reported 17 open-market sales worth $21.8M and 6 open-market purchases worth $245K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in FAST
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Aug 13, 2026
PAPENFUSS DONNALEE KATHLEEN
Officer
Sell
9.3K
$475.8K
Aug 13, 2026
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
Grant
400
-
Aug 13, 2026
PAPENFUSS DONNALEE KATHLEEN
Officer
Option
9.3K
$168.7K
Aug 10, 2026
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
Sell
3.0K
$156.0K
Aug 10, 2026
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
Option
3.0K
$41.3K
Aug 5, 2026
HEISE RITA J
Director
Sell
35.0K
$1.8M
Aug 5, 2026
HEISE RITA J
Director
Option
35.0K
$604.3K
Jul 28, 2026
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
Sell
3.0K
$147.0K
Jul 28, 2026
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
Option
3.0K
$41.3K
Apr 24, 2026
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
Option
1.0K
$44.9K
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Fastenal Co. compare to its sector averages?
Fastenal Co. (FAST) trades at a premium compared to the Industrials sector median. Its P/E ratio of 43.96 versus the sector's 34, and its price-to-sales ratio is 6.75 compared to the sector's 4. However, FAST's revenue growth of 14.7% and return on equity of 34.33% both exceed sector averages.
What is Fastenal Co.'s dividend yield?
Fastenal Co. (FAST) offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.85%, with an annual dividend rate of $0.96 per share.
How has Fastenal Co. performed in recent earnings reports?
Fastenal Co. (FAST) has consistently met or slightly missed analyst earnings per share estimates in its recent quarterly reports. For example, the July 14, 2026, report showed EPS of $0.33, matching estimates, with a minor stock price reaction.
Is FAST in an uptrend?
Yes. Fastenal Co. (FAST) trades at $52.00, above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($50.38 and $46.59). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 63.8, showing bullish momentum without being overbought.
Are insiders buying or selling FAST?
Selling, on balance. In the last 18 months, FAST's officers, directors and large holders reported 17 sales worth $21.8M and 6 open-market purchases worth $245K. Grants and option exercises are not counted as buying.
What is the analyst price target for FAST?
As of October 15, 2026, the 18 Wall Street analysts covering FAST have 12-month targets from $39.90 to $59.00, with a median of $49.00, 5.8% below the current price of $52.00. 6 rate it a buy or strong buy, 7 a hold and 5 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 6 of 18 rated it a buy.
What is FAST's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
Fastenal Co. (FAST)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -27.8%, from December 2021 to October 2022. It regained that peak by December 2023, 14 months after the low. Over the same period, 87% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are FAST's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, November has been FAST's strongest month on average (+7.67%, rising in 8 of 10 years) and May its weakest (-1.46%, rising in 5 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does FAST move with the stock market?
Over the past year FAST's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.41). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.30; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.05; Gold (XAU): +0.05. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in FAST be worth today?
$10,000 put into FAST in October 2016 would be worth about $54,351 today, against about $36,237 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
