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As of September 10, 2026, Fastenal Co. (FAST) trades at $49.01. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $47.00, 4.1% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $47.00 across 18 analysts. RSI at 40 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $48.77.
Fastenal Co. (FAST)
Fastenal Co. NASDAQ
$49.01
0.2200 (0.45%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
47 / 100
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is currently trading at $49.01, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($48.77 and $45.51), signaling a neutral momentum. The company operates in the Industrial Distribution sector, with Wall Street analysts maintaining a 'Hold' consensus rating based on 18 ratings, yielding a consensus score of 47. Revenue growth has been a consistent positive, with the current quarter projected at 14.00% year-over-year. However, insider transactions show a net seller position, with total sales significantly outweighing purchases, indicating a degree of caution from management. The stock's fair value is estimated at $47.00, suggesting a slight downside from the current price.
FAST Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$48.32
Day Range
$48.06 to $49.13
Prev Close
$48.79
Volume
7.21M
52-Week Range
$38.97 to $52.92
Market Cap
$56.24B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+66%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
FAST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, FAST beat estimates 1 times. The stock rose 1 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
FAST Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-4.10% Downside
Median of 18 analysts (12-month)
$47.00
AI Technical Analysis
Volume behavior for Fastenal Co. (FAST) has shown a 13.9% increase compared to its average, indicating heightened interest. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($48.77 and $45.51), suggesting some underlying support, but is below its 20-day exponential moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.12, indicating neutral momentum, and the MACD is slightly negative at -0.086. Key support levels are implied by the 50-day SMA at $48.77 and the 200-day SMA at $45.51, while resistance may be encountered near the current price and the 20-day EMA at $49.63.
ProTips
- Fastenal's P/E ratio of 42.21 is substantially higher than the industrial sector average of 25.5, suggesting investors should carefully consider the valuation before entering a position.
- The stock is trading below its 20-day EMA, indicating potential near-term weakness. Monitor key support levels around the 50-day SMA ($48.77) and 200-day SMA ($45.51).
- With insider transactions showing a net seller position, it is prudent to monitor future insider activity for any shifts in management's confidence.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $28.2 million worth of stock versus $244.6 thousand purchased, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' and potential caution from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Elevated Valuation Relative to Sector
Fastenal's P/E ratio of 42.21 is significantly higher than the industrial sector average of 25.5, posing a risk of valuation contraction.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisNeutral
Consistent Revenue Growth
The company is projected to achieve 14.00% revenue growth in the current quarter, demonstrating operational resilience.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesNeutral
Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus
The median analyst price target of $47.00 suggests limited upside from the current price, reflecting a balanced view from analysts.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
Fastenal Co. (FAST) faces a neutral outlook, with Wall Street analysts holding a 'Hold' consensus and a median price target of $47.00, suggesting a slight downside from the current price. The company's consistent revenue growth, projected at 14.00% for the current quarter, provides a foundation, but the elevated P/E ratio of 42.21 compared to the sector average of 25.5 presents a valuation risk. The stock's neutral RSI and position below the 20-day EMA also point to a lack of strong upward momentum in the near term. Potential catalysts for upside could include stronger-than-expected earnings beats or a significant improvement in insider sentiment. Conversely, a failure to meet revenue growth expectations, continued insider selling, or a broader market downturn could push the stock towards its downside targets, particularly if it breaks below key support levels like the 200-day SMA.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 56.24B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.21 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.17 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% |
| 52 Week High | 52.92 |
| 52 Week Low | 38.97 |
Fastenal Co. (FAST) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 42.21, which is significantly higher than the industrial sector average P/E of 25.5, suggesting the stock may be overvalued relative to its peers. Earnings per share (EPS) stand at $1.17. While the company demonstrates consistent revenue growth, projected at 14.00% for the current quarter, the elevated P/E ratio warrants caution. The dividend yield is approximately 1.96%, offering a modest income stream. The balance sheet strength and profitability metrics would need further examination to fully assess the valuation's sustainability against sector averages.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Fastenal Co. (FAST) has shown consistent performance in its recent earnings reports, with actual EPS matching estimates in the latest three quarters. The most recent quarter ending July 14, 2026, reported an EPS of $0.33, exactly in line with the $0.33 estimate, resulting in a 0% surprise and a minor price decrease of -0.83%. Prior quarters also showed zero surprises, indicating a stable earnings trajectory without significant beats or misses. This pattern suggests predictability in earnings but lacks the strong positive surprises that often drive significant stock price appreciation.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Fastenal Co. (FAST) is its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio of 42.21 significantly exceeding the industrial sector average of 25.5. Also, insider transactions indicate a net seller position, with total sales of $28.2 million against purchases of $244.6 thousand, signaling potential caution from management. The stock's current price is also trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, suggesting near-term downward pressure.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 40.12 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.09 |
| SMA 50 | 48.77 |
| SMA 200 | 45.51 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($48.77) above the 200-day SMA ($45.51), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.41
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.01
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
FAST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$48.52
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$49.01
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$46.90
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (40.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$49.98
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$50.95
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$52.40
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for FAST is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FAST in September 2016 would be worth about $47,939 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FAST today could grow to about $30,264 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $89,524 and a bear case around $10,231. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FAST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $76.32 for FAST by 2030 in the base case, from $49.01 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $38.44. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FAST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $38.85 | $54.75 | $77.15 |
| 2028 | $37.66 | $61.16 | $99.34 |
| 2029 | $37.72 | $68.32 | $124 |
| 2030 | $38.44 | $76.32 | $152 |
| 2031 | $39.60 | $85.26 | $184 |
| 2032 | $41.11 | $95.24 | $221 |
| 2033 | $42.94 | $106 | $264 |
| 2034 | $45.06 | $119 | $314 |
| 2035 | $47.45 | $133 | $372 |
| 2036 | $50.14 | $148 | $439 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using FAST's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
FAST Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$244.6K
6 Transactions
Sold
$28.2M
19 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | LEWIS HOLDEN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 68.7K | $5.1M |
| Apr 24, 2025 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $4.1M |
| Aug 12, 2025 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 84.6K | $4.1M |
| Oct 22, 2019 | OBERTON WILLARD D
Director
|
Sell | 100.0K | $3.7M |
| Oct 24, 2023 | OWEN TERRY MODOCK
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 63.3K | $3.6M |
| Sep 12, 2024 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $3.5M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | LEWIS HOLDEN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 41.1K | $3.4M |
| Aug 21, 2024 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 45.7K | $3.1M |
| Nov 11, 2024 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 31.8K | $2.7M |
| Apr 26, 2019 | WISECUP REYNE KAY
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 37.5K | $2.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Fastenal's stock price forecast for 2030?
Fastenal's stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $76.32, with a downside scenario at $38.44 and an upside scenario at $151.55. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets.
Is Fastenal stock a buy right now?
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is currently rated as 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 47. The stock's fair value is estimated at $47.00, implying a slight downside from its current price of $49.01, suggesting it may not be an opportune time to buy.
What is Fastenal's dividend yield?
Fastenal Co. offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.96%, with a dividend rate of $0.96 per share.
How has Fastenal's revenue grown recently?
Fastenal Co. has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the current quarter projected to increase by 14.00% year-over-year. The next quarter and current year are also estimated to see strong growth of 14.00% and 13.00% respectively.
What are the main risks facing Fastenal Co.?
The primary risks for Fastenal Co. include its high valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly above the sector average, and a net seller position among insiders. The stock is also trading below its 20-day EMA, indicating potential near-term weakness.
How does Fastenal's valuation compare to its sector?
Fastenal Co.'s P/E ratio of 42.21 is considerably higher than the industrial sector average of 25.5, suggesting that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its peers.
What is the sentiment from Fastenal's insider transactions?
Insider transactions for Fastenal Co. indicate a 'Moderate Sell Signal,' with total sales of $28.2 million significantly exceeding total purchases of $244.6 thousand in recent filings.