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As of September 27, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) trades at $45.62. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $45.62, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $104.00 across 21 analysts. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $51.60.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS)
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. NASDAQ
$45.62
-1.400 (-2.98%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is trading at $45.62, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($51.60 and $69.78), signaling a bearish trend. The company's fundamentals show a low net profit margin of 2.03% and a negative operating margin of -0.17%, although its debt-to-equity ratio is a healthy 0.06. Analysts maintain a median price target of $104.00, implying substantial upside, but this is sharply contradicted by the overwhelming insider selling activity. The company is a key player in the Aerospace & Defense sector, competing with firms like LMT and GD. Recent insider transactions reveal a stark picture, with total sales reaching $147.7 million against only $250.4 thousand in purchases, leading to a heavy insider selling. This significant net selling pressure from insiders, coupled with a bearish RSI of 38.32, suggests a lack of confidence from those closest to the company's operations. While the sector average revenue growth is 11.7%, KTOS reported a strong 30.5% revenue growth, and forward estimates are also strong, indicating strong demand for its products. However, the current price action and insider activity overshadow these positive growth indicators.
KTOS Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$46.97
Day Range
$45.31 to $47.45
Prev Close
$47.02
Volume
3.18M
52-Week Range
$43.09 to $134.00
Market Cap
$8.56B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+689%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
KTOS Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
KTOS Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $51.60 and the 200-day SMA at $69.78, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.32, confirming bearish momentum and suggesting further downside potential. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also negative at -1.78, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The current price of $45.62 is well below the 50-day SMA, suggesting it may test lower levels. Resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA of $51.60. Volume on the latest trading day was 3.18 million, which is 22.8% below the average volume, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers at current levels. The stochastic indicator is at 15.46, which is in oversold territory, but the overall technical picture remains bearish due to the price action relative to moving averages and the RSI.
ProTips
- Given the heavy insider selling from insider transactions, investors should exercise extreme caution and monitor for any changes in insider activity or fundamental performance.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($51.60 and $69.78), indicating a bearish trend. Consider waiting for a confirmed break above resistance levels before considering a long position.
- With a high P/E ratio and negative operating margin, risk management is paramount. Ensure any position sizing reflects the elevated valuation and profitability concerns.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $147.7 million in stock versus minimal purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence and potential for further price declines.
Source: Insider Transactions DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($51.60 and $69.78), with a bearish RSI of 38.32, suggesting continued downside risk.
Source: Technical Analysis DataBullish
Strong Revenue Growth and Estimates
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions reported 30.5% revenue growth, outpacing sector averages, with strong forward estimates for both revenue and EPS.
Source: Company Fundamentals & Analyst EstimatesBullish
High Analyst Price Target
The median analyst price target for KTOS is $104.00, implying a significant upside potential of 128% from the current price.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) suggests continued downside pressure given the heavy insider selling and bearish technical indicators, despite strong revenue growth figures. The stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($51.60 and $69.78), with a bearish RSI, indicating that current price levels may not hold. While analysts have a median price target of $104.00, the overwhelming insider sell-off and weak profitability metrics cast doubt on achieving this target in the near to medium term. Potential catalysts for a change in trajectory would need to involve a significant shift in insider sentiment, a clear break above key resistance levels, or a substantial improvement in profitability. Conversely, continued insider selling, a failure to break above the 50-day SMA, or any negative news regarding defense contracts could exacerbate the bearish outlook. The company's strong revenue growth and positive forward estimates provide a foundation, but these are currently overshadowed by the negative signals from insider activity and technicals.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 8.56B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 268.35 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.1700 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 134.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 43.09 |
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) exhibits a high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 268.35, significantly above the sector median of 34, suggesting a substantial valuation premium. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 5.62, also considerably higher than the sector median of 4.0. The company's profitability metrics are weak, with a net profit margin of 2.03% and a negative operating margin of -0.17%, contrasting sharply with the sector median Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.8%. Despite these valuation and profitability concerns, KTOS has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 30.5%, outpacing the sector average of 11.7%. Forward estimates also indicate strong growth, with current year revenue growth projected at 33.00% and next year at 23.00%. The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, indicating a strong balance sheet. However, the high P/E ratio and negative operating margin raise questions about the sustainability of its current valuation, especially when compared to sector averages.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) reported strong revenue growth of 30.5%, and forward estimates are positive, with current year revenue projected to grow by 33.00%. The company's net profit margin is 2.03%, though its operating margin is negative at -0.17%.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) stems from the overwhelming insider selling, with $147.7 million in sales versus minimal purchases, signaling a heavy sell signal. Technically, the stock is trading below key moving averages and exhibits bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further price declines. The high P/E ratio of 268.35 and negative operating margin also present significant valuation and profitability risks compared to sector peers.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 38.32 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.78 |
| SMA 50 | 51.60 |
| SMA 200 | 69.78 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $51.60, 200-day: $69.78), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with KTOS? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
KTOS Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$46.53
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$45.62
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$49.83
MAX LOSS
-7.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (38.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$44.21
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$41.88
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$39.55
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for KTOS is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in KTOS in September 2016 would be worth about $68,602 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in KTOS today could grow to about $34,766 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $263,755 and a bear case around $4,583. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
KTOS Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $75.10 for KTOS by 2030 in the base case, from $45.62 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $20.85. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on KTOS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $27.23 | $51.67 | $98.08 |
| 2028 | $23.65 | $58.53 | $145 |
| 2029 | $21.85 | $66.30 | $201 |
| 2030 | $20.85 | $75.10 | $271 |
| 2031 | $20.30 | $85.06 | $356 |
| 2032 | $20.05 | $96.35 | $463 |
| 2033 | $20.03 | $109 | $595 |
| 2034 | $20.18 | $124 | $757 |
| 2035 | $20.48 | $140 | $957 |
| 2036 | $20.91 | $159 | $1,203 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using KTOS's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. KTOS is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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KTOS Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$250.4K
1 Transactions
Sold
$147.7M
130 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | DEMARCO ERIC M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 400.0K | $29.2M |
| Aug 14, 2026 | DEMARCO ERIC M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 300.0K | $19.3M |
| Jan 6, 2026 | DEMARCO ERIC M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 200.0K | $18.1M |
| Dec 22, 2025 | DEMARCO ERIC M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 200.0K | $16.1M |
| Aug 8, 2019 | CARANO BANDEL L
Director
|
Sell | 500.0K | $9.6M |
| Nov 8, 2019 | DEMARCO ERIC M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 293.5K | $5.7M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | HOGLUND WILLIAM A
Director
|
Sell | 75.0K | $5.6M |
| Dec 2, 2025 | LUND DEANNA HOM
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 55.0K | $4.0M |
| Aug 6, 2019 | LUND DEANNA HOM
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 123.2K | $2.4M |
| Jan 12, 2026 | ROCK STACEY G
Officer
|
Sell | 20.6K | $2.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions' stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions' stock price is projected to be $75.10 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $20.85, while the upside projection reaches $270.53. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions stock a buy right now?
Currently, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is rated as a Sell with a consensus score of 21. This is driven by heavy insider selling and bearish technical indicators, despite a high median analyst target price of $104.00.
What are the key technical levels for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $51.60 and its 200-day SMA of $69.78, indicating a bearish trend. The RSI is at 38.32, showing bearish momentum, and the MACD is also negative.
What is the sentiment from insider transactions for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions?
Insider sentiment for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is heavily bearish, with a heavy insider selling. Insiders have sold $147.7 million worth of stock compared to only $250.4 thousand in purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence from management.
How does Kratos Defense & Security Solutions compare to its sector averages?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) shows strong revenue growth (30.5%) above the sector median (11.7%), but its P/E ratio (268.35) and P/S ratio (5.62) are significantly higher than sector medians (34 and 4.0, respectively). Its profit margins are also weaker than the sector's median ROE of 17.8%.
What are the main risks facing Kratos Defense & Security Solutions?
The primary risks for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) include extensive insider selling, a bearish technical setup with the stock below key moving averages, and a high valuation relative to its profitability. The negative operating margin also presents a concern.
What is the consensus rating for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions?
The consensus rating for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is Sell, with a consensus score of 21 out of 100. This reflects the significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators.
What are the forward-looking growth estimates for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions?
Wall Street analysts project strong growth for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS), with current year revenue growth estimated at 33.00% and next year at 23.00%. Earnings per share are expected to grow from $0.81 in the current year to $1.10 next year.