As of September 11, 2026, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) trades at $267.33. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $287.00, 7.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $287.00 across 18 analysts. RSI at 35 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $264.56.
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP)
Automatic Data Processing Inc. NASDAQ
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is currently trading at $267.33, slightly above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($264.56 and $237.30) but below its 20-day EMA. The stock's RSI is at 35.38, indicating bearish momentum, while MACD shows a slight positive divergence. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $287.00, implying a modest 7.4% upside from the current price. Revenue growth is projected to be around 6.00% for the current and next quarters, and for the current and next fiscal years, reflecting steady but not exceptional expansion.
The company's fundamental valuation appears reasonable, with a P/E ratio of 24.51, which is in line with the sector average. However, significant insider selling pressure is a notable concern, with total sales exceeding $58.7 million against only $745.7 thousand in purchases. This heavy selling signal warrants close observation, as it contrasts with the neutral technical and analyst sentiment.
ADP Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
ADP Analysis
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $264.56 and its 200-day SMA of $237.30, indicating a generally positive long-term trend. However, the stock is trading below its 20-day EMA of $274.85, suggesting near-term weakness. The RSI is at 35.38, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is at 2.09, indicating a slight positive trend but with limited strength.
The nearest support level is the 50-day SMA at $264.56, while resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA around $274.85. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with the latest volume at 1.66 million compared to an average of 1.85 million. The current technical setup suggests a neutral to slightly bearish short-term outlook, with potential for a pullback if key support levels are breached.
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; a continuation of heavy selling could signal underlying concerns not reflected in the current consensus.
- Given the bearish RSI and the stock trading below its 20-day EMA, consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout above resistance levels before initiating new positions.
- With a modest upside to the median price target, risk-averse investors may want to focus on assets with clearer bullish catalysts or stronger technical momentum.
Insiders have sold over $58.7 million worth of ADP stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $745.7 thousand. This 'Heavy Sell Signal' indicates a lack of confidence from management and could pressure the stock price.
Source: Insider TransactionsThe stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.38, signaling bearish momentum. Additionally, ADP is trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting near-term weakness.
Source: Technical AnalysisADP is expected to maintain approximately 6.00% revenue growth across its upcoming quarters and fiscal years, providing a stable operational outlook.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesThe median Wall Street price target for ADP is $287.00, implying a limited upside potential of 7.4% from the current price, suggesting a balanced view from analysts.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusThe base case outlook for Automatic Data Processing (ADP) suggests a period of consolidation, with the stock likely trading within a range defined by its key moving averages and the median analyst target price of $287.00 over the next 6-12 months. The company's steady revenue growth projections and in-line sector valuation provide a stable foundation, but the significant insider selling and bearish technical momentum present headwinds.
Upside potential could be unlocked if insider selling subsides and technical momentum shifts to bullish, potentially driving the stock towards its higher analyst targets. Conversely, a breach of the 50-day SMA support level at $264.56, coupled with continued insider dispositions, could lead to a re-evaluation of the stock's fundamental outlook and a move towards the lower end of analyst targets.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 106.20B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.51 |
| EPS (TTM) | 10.82 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% |
| 52 Week High | 305.31 |
| 52 Week Low | 188.16 |
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) exhibits a P/E ratio of 24.51, which is comparable to the sector average of 24.51, suggesting fair valuation relative to its peers. The company's revenue growth is projected at approximately 6.00% for the upcoming quarters and fiscal years, indicating stable expansion.
The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the consistent revenue growth projections imply operational stability. The current valuation does not appear excessively stretched given the sector averages and projected growth, but the significant insider selling activity could signal underlying concerns not immediately apparent in the valuation multiples.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) recently reported an EPS of $0.36 for the quarter ending July 20, 2026, beating the estimate of $0.34 by 5.88%. This positive surprise was followed by a price decrease of 3.53%. Prior to this, the company met estimates with an EPS of $0.30 for the quarter ending April 13, 2026, resulting in a minor price drop of 0.15%.
The pattern of earnings suggests the company is meeting analyst expectations, but the market reaction has been slightly negative following these recent reports, indicating a lack of strong positive sentiment despite the earnings beats.
Key Risks
Significant insider selling represents a key risk for Automatic Data Processing (ADP), with over $58.7 million in sales versus minimal purchases. The stock's bearish momentum, as indicated by its RSI below 40 and trading below the 20-day EMA, suggests potential for further downside. Additionally, the modest upside to the median Wall Street price target of $287.00 implies limited immediate catalysts for significant price appreciation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 35.38 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 2.09 |
| SMA 50 | 264.56 |
| SMA 200 | 237.30 |
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
ADP Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ADP in September 2016 would be worth about $30,330 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ADP today could grow to about $24,662 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $67,753 and a bear case around $8,977. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ADP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $384 for ADP by 2030 in the base case, from $267 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $202. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ADP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $213 | $293 | $403 |
| 2028 | $204 | $320 | $503 |
| 2029 | $201 | $350 | $610 |
| 2030 | $202 | $384 | $727 |
| 2031 | $205 | $420 | $858 |
| 2032 | $210 | $459 | $1,005 |
| 2033 | $216 | $503 | $1,171 |
| 2034 | $223 | $550 | $1,359 |
| 2035 | $231 | $602 | $1,571 |
| 2036 | $240 | $659 | $1,811 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ADP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ADP Insider Trading Analysis
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Officer
|
Sell | 111.1K | $26.3M |
| Sep 7, 2023 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Officer
|
Sell | 98.1K | $24.6M |
| Aug 1, 2024 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Officer
|
Sell | 87.8K | $22.9M |
| Sep 14, 2022 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 89.8K | $21.2M |
| Dec 14, 2021 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 89.8K | $20.9M |
| Sep 8, 2022 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 87.8K | $20.8M |
| Nov 14, 2019 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 97.1K | $16.4M |
| Sep 11, 2024 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
|
Sell | 58.9K | $16.3M |
| Dec 8, 2021 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 56.5K | $13.2M |
| Sep 12, 2023 | RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Officer
|
Sell | 52.3K | $13.0M |