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As of October 11, 2026, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) trades at $242.27. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $242.27, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $265.50 across 39 analysts. RSI at 43 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $257.88.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Adobe Inc. NASDAQ
$242.27
1.220 (0.51%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
56 / 100
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is currently trading at $242.27, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($257.88 and $256.98), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The company's fair value is assessed at its current trading price, with no immediate upside indicated. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $265.50, suggesting limited upside potential from current levels. Despite a strong profit margin of 28.05% and a healthy return on equity of 61.90%, the stock is trading at a premium to sector averages on a price-to-sales basis (3.63 vs 7.5), though its P/E ratio of 13.5 is below the sector median of 34. Recent earnings have shown consistent EPS beats, with the latest quarter to September 2026 exceeding estimates by 0.66%. However, the stock has experienced price declines following previous earnings reports, such as a 6.76% drop after the June 2026 quarter. Insider activity shows a moderate sell signal, with total sales significantly outweighing purchases, which warrants caution. The company's revenue growth is projected to be around 10-12% for the current and next fiscal years, aligning with its historical growth trajectory.
ADBE Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$240.00
Day Range
$240.00 to $245.16
Prev Close
$241.05
Volume
3.89M
52-Week Range
$190.12 to $363.70
Market Cap
$94.29B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-60%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
ADBE Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ADBE beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ADBE Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+9.59% Upside
Median of 39 analysts (12-month)
$265.50
AI Technical Analysis
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($257.88 and $256.98), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.27, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is negative at -5.49, further suggesting downward pressure. The current price action indicates a lack of immediate upward momentum. Volume on the latest trading day was 3.89 million, below the average of 4.39 million, suggesting subdued investor interest. The stock's recent trading history shows it is below its 20-day exponential moving average (243.66), reinforcing the short-term bearish sentiment. The lack of strong bullish technical indicators suggests that the stock may consolidate or face further downward pressure until a clear support level is established and buying conviction returns. Investors should monitor for a break above key moving averages to signal a potential trend reversal.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling trends closely; a continuation could signal further downside pressure on ADBE stock.
- Given the neutral RSI and negative MACD, consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout above the 50-day SMA ($257.88) before initiating new long positions.
- While Adobe's revenue growth is projected to be below sector averages, its strong profit margins and below-sector-median P/E ratio offer some valuation resilience.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $19.6 million worth of stock versus $1.9 million purchased, indicating a moderate sell signal that could weigh on investor sentiment.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($257.88 and $256.98), suggesting a bearish short-term trend and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Consistent EPS Beats
Adobe has a track record of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, most recently by 0.66% in the September 2026 quarter, providing fundamental support.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Below Sector Median P/E Ratio
Adobe's P/E ratio of 13.52 is significantly lower than the Technology sector median of 34, potentially offering valuation support.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisMarket Outlook
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) faces a period of consolidation, with its current price of $242.27 aligning with its fair value and trading below key technical indicators. The median Wall Street price target of $265.50 suggests limited upside potential of 9.6% over the next 6-12 months. The company's strong profitability and consistent EPS beats are positive, but tempered by moderate insider selling and revenue growth projections that trail the sector average. Potential upside could be driven by stronger-than-expected product innovation or market share gains, particularly in its Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud segments. However, risks include increased competition from other software providers, potential shifts in digital advertising spending impacting its Experience Cloud, and the possibility of further insider selling or a broader market downturn impacting technology stocks. The company's P/E ratio is notably below the sector median, which could offer some valuation support if growth accelerates.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 94.29B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.53 |
| EPS (TTM) | 17.91 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.01% |
| 52 Week High | 363.70 |
| 52 Week Low | 190.12 |
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 28.05% and an operating margin of 34.82%, contributing to a strong return on equity of 61.90%. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.63, which is below the sector median of 7.5, indicating a potential valuation discount on this metric. However, its P/E ratio of 13.52 is significantly lower than the sector median of 34, which could suggest either undervaluation or underlying concerns not captured by this single metric. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.58, which is slightly above the sector average of 0.58, indicating a moderate level of leverage. While the company demonstrates strong operational efficiency and profitability, the current market price does not present a significant upside based on fair value estimates. Future revenue growth is projected to be around 10-12% for the upcoming fiscal years, which is below the sector's average revenue growth of 24.1%, suggesting a potential slowdown in expansion relative to peers.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has a history of beating earnings per share estimates, with the most recent quarter to September 2026 showing an actual EPS of $6.13 against an estimate of $6.09, a 0.66% surprise. This follows a pattern of positive surprises in prior quarters, although the stock price reaction has been mixed, including a notable 6.76% decline after the June 2026 earnings release. The company's revenue growth is expected to be around 10-12% for the current and next fiscal years, indicating steady but not exceptional expansion. Forward-looking EPS estimates suggest continued growth, with the current year estimate at $24.48 and next year at $27.67.
Key Risks
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with total sales significantly exceeding purchases, signaling potential caution from management. The stock is trading below key moving averages, indicating bearish short-term technical momentum and a lack of immediate upside catalysts. While profitability remains strong, projected revenue growth is below the sector average, suggesting potential competitive pressures or market saturation challenges within the software application industry.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 43.27 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -5.49 |
| SMA 50 | 257.88 |
| SMA 200 | 256.98 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with ADBE? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
ADBE Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$239.85
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$242.27
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$231.00
MAX LOSS
-3.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (43.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$247.04
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$251.84
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$259.04
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ADBE is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ADBE in October 2016 would be worth about $22,564 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ADBE today could grow to about $21,302 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $89,383 and a bear case around $5,077. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ADBE Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $328 for ADBE by 2030 in the base case, from $242 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $132. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ADBE's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $166 | $261 | $411 |
| 2028 | $148 | $282 | $535 |
| 2029 | $139 | $304 | $667 |
| 2030 | $132 | $328 | $812 |
| 2031 | $128 | $354 | $975 |
| 2032 | $126 | $381 | $1,158 |
| 2033 | $124 | $411 | $1,366 |
| 2034 | $123 | $444 | $1,600 |
| 2035 | $123 | $478 | $1,865 |
| 2036 | $123 | $516 | $2,165 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ADBE's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ADBE Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.9M
1 Transactions
Sold
$19.6M
7 Transactions
Insiders
21
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2021 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 80.9K | $38.2M |
| Sep 24, 2021 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $24.8M |
| Dec 22, 2023 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 32.0K | $19.1M |
| Apr 28, 2026 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 75.0K | $18.3M |
| Jun 22, 2023 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 35.0K | $16.7M |
| Jun 27, 2024 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $13.6M |
| Sep 25, 2024 | NARAYEN SHANTANU
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $13.0M |
| Jan 29, 2021 | LAMKIN BRYAN S
Officer
|
Sell | 22.2K | $10.3M |
| Feb 16, 2021 | LEWNES ANN
Officer
|
Sell | 15.6K | $7.8M |
| Aug 24, 2020 | LAMKIN BRYAN S
Officer
|
Sell | 13.1K | $6.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) stock a buy right now?
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is currently rated as a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 56. The median analyst price target is $265.50, implying a modest 9.6% upside from the current price of $242.27. While the company shows strong profitability, insider selling and bearish technical indicators suggest a period of consolidation.
What is Adobe Inc.'s fair value?
Adobe Inc.'s fair value is estimated to be $242.27, which is its current trading price. This suggests that the stock is fairly valued at present, with no significant immediate upside indicated by this metric.
What are the recent earnings trends for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)?
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has consistently beaten EPS estimates, most recently by 0.66% in the quarter ending September 2026. However, stock price reactions to earnings have been mixed, with some quarters leading to declines, indicating that market sentiment may not always align with earnings beats.
What is the outlook for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) revenue growth?
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 10-12% for the current and next fiscal years. This growth rate is below the median for the Technology sector, which stands at 24.1%, suggesting that Adobe may be facing increased competition or market maturity.
What do insider transactions suggest about Adobe Inc. (ADBE)?
Insider transactions for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) indicate a 'Moderate Sell Signal,' with total sales of $19.6 million significantly outweighing total purchases of $1.9 million. This suggests a degree of caution among insiders regarding the stock's near-term prospects.
How does Adobe Inc. (ADBE) compare to its sector peers?
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) operates in the Technology sector with a P/E ratio of 13.52, which is considerably lower than the sector median of 34. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 3.63 is below the sector median of 7.5, and its projected revenue growth of 10-12% lags the sector average of 24.1%.
What is ADBE stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has a base case forecast of $327.85 for 2030, with a downside projection of $132.36 and an upside projection of $812.05. These are statistical outcomes and not definitive price targets.