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As of September 11, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) trades at $862.33. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $1,150.00, 33.4% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $1,150.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 52 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $849.91.
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX)
Seagate Technology Holdings NASDAQ
$862.33
-23.59 (-2.66%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
74 / 100
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) is trading at $862.33, showing strength above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($849.91 and $602.92). The company is experiencing exceptional revenue growth, with current quarter estimates showing a +57.00% year-over-year increase, projected to continue at +59.00% next quarter and +54.00% for the current year. This strong top-line expansion is a primary driver for the positive analyst sentiment, which leans heavily towards 'Buy' ratings. Despite the positive outlook on revenue and analyst targets, a significant amount of insider selling has been recorded, with over $410 million in sales in recent filings. This heavy selling pressure from insiders is a notable risk factor that investors should monitor closely, even as the company demonstrates strong operational momentum and analyst conviction.
STX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$860.48
Day Range
$848.24 to $880.97
Prev Close
$885.92
Volume
3.06M
52-Week Range
$163.86 to $1,145.00
Market Cap
$196.09B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+143%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
STX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, STX beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 4 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
STX Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+33.36% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$1,150.00
AI Technical Analysis
Seagate Technology Holdings is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($849.91 and $602.92), indicating a generally positive trend. The 50-day moving average is acting as immediate support, while the 200-day moving average signifies longer-term upward momentum. The RSI is at 51.98, reflecting neutral momentum, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions at present. Volume on the latest trading day was 3,057,129, which is 8.8% below the average volume of 3,351,903. This lower volume during a period of trading above key moving averages could suggest a lack of strong conviction behind the current price action, or simply a pause before the next move. Key resistance levels are implied by the current price action and analyst targets, while support is found at the 50-day SMA.
ProTips
- Significant insider selling of over $410 million warrants close monitoring as it could indicate management's view on current valuation or future prospects.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($849.91 and $602.92), indicating positive technical momentum, but the RSI at 51.98 suggests neutral conditions.
- Given the high P/E ratio of 61.99, investors should focus on the company's ability to sustain its exceptional revenue growth rate of 48.5% to justify the premium valuation.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Consistent Earnings Beats Driving Positive Sentiment
Seagate Technology Holdings has a history of exceeding EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 2.3% beat. This consistent performance has historically correlated with positive stock price reactions and contributes to the strong analyst 'Buy' consensus.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast strong revenue growth, with current quarter estimates at +57.00% year-over-year and current year estimates at +54.00%. This exceptional top-line expansion is a key driver for the positive outlook.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold over $410 million worth of stock across 195 transactions, indicating significant selling pressure. This heavy insider selling is a notable risk that could weigh on future price performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Trading Above Key Moving Averages
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($849.91 and $602.92), indicating a generally positive technical trend, with the 50-day SMA acting as immediate support.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for Seagate Technology Holdings over the next 6-12 months anticipates continued upward momentum, supported by strong revenue growth projections and a predominantly 'Buy' analyst consensus. The median analyst price target of $1150.00 suggests a potential upside of 33.4% from the current price, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to execute on its growth strategy. However, the significant insider selling activity presents a considerable downside risk that could challenge this optimistic outlook. If this selling pressure continues or intensifies, it may signal underlying concerns not fully captured by current analyst ratings or growth forecasts. Investors should also monitor competitive dynamics and the company's ability to maintain its exceptional revenue growth pace to sustain its premium valuation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 196.09B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.99 |
| EPS (TTM) | 13.91 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3430% |
| 52 Week High | 1,145.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 163.86 |
Seagate Technology Holdings exhibits a high P/E ratio of 61.99, significantly above the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a premium valuation. However, its reported revenue growth of 48.5% is exceptionally strong, far exceeding the sector average of 10.0%, which may justify the higher multiple. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $13.91, indicating profitability. With projected revenue growth of over 50% for the current and next fiscal years, the company's fundamental story is one of rapid expansion. While the current valuation appears stretched based on P/E alone, the exceptional revenue growth and strong analyst estimates for future performance suggest that investors are pricing in significant future earnings potential. The company's ability to sustain this growth trajectory will be key to justifying its current market capitalization.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Seagate Technology Holdings has a consistent track record of beating analyst EPS estimates, with the most recent quarter ending July 28, 2026, showing an EPS of $0.89 against an estimate of $0.87, a 2.3% surprise. Prior quarters also demonstrated strong positive surprises, including a 16.81% beat in April 2026 and a 9.51% beat in January 2026, which coincided with significant price increases of 11.1% and 19.14% respectively. This pattern of exceeding expectations suggests effective operational management and strong demand for its products.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Seagate Technology Holdings is the heavy insider selling, with over $410 million in sales, indicating potential concerns among management regarding future performance or valuation. Additionally, the company's high P/E ratio of 61.99, significantly above the sector average, presents a valuation risk if growth expectations are not met. Competition within the computer hardware sector also poses a persistent threat, as companies like Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Inc. (HPQ) vie for market share.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 51.98 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.33 |
| SMA 50 | 849.91 |
| SMA 200 | 602.92 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Neutral
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($849.91) above the 200-day SMA ($602.92), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.53
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
STX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$845.08
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$862.33
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$785.93
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (52.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$887.34
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$929.59
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$971.85
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
STX is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 4.03%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in STX in September 2016 would be worth about $235,932 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in STX today could grow to about $48,580 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $280,152 and a bear case around $8,424. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
STX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,623 for STX by 2030 in the base case, from $862 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $536. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on STX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $580 | $1,010 | $1,758 |
| 2028 | $540 | $1,183 | $2,590 |
| 2029 | $531 | $1,386 | $3,617 |
| 2030 | $536 | $1,623 | $4,915 |
| 2031 | $551 | $1,901 | $6,561 |
| 2032 | $573 | $2,226 | $8,649 |
| 2033 | $602 | $2,607 | $11,294 |
| 2034 | $637 | $3,054 | $14,637 |
| 2035 | $679 | $3,577 | $18,853 |
| 2036 | $726 | $4,189 | $24,158 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using STX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. STX is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
STX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$410.1M
97 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$4.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2021 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 5.6M | $507.9M |
| Mar 3, 2021 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 4.7M | $338.3M |
| Feb 22, 2022 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.1M | $221.4M |
| Nov 15, 2021 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.9M | $203.5M |
| Dec 31, 2020 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.4M | $86.6M |
| Jan 6, 2021 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.2M | $70.4M |
| Jan 15, 2021 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 703.0K | $42.4M |
| Jan 8, 2021 | VALUEACT HOLDINGS L P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 617.7K | $37.2M |
| Sep 1, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $24.5M |
| May 20, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $22.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Seagate Technology Holdings stock a buy right now?
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) is currently rated as a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $1150.00, suggesting an upside of 33.4% from its current price of $862.33. The company shows strong revenue growth and consistent earnings beats, but significant insider selling is a key risk to consider.
What is Seagate Technology Holdings' long-term stock forecast?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Seagate Technology Holdings' stock forecast for 2030 has a base case price of $1622.76 and a downside projection of $535.79. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Seagate Technology Holdings?
The primary risks for Seagate Technology Holdings include substantial insider selling totaling over $410 million, a high P/E ratio of 61.99 which is well above the sector average, and competitive pressures within the computer hardware industry from players like Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Inc. (HPQ).
How has Seagate Technology Holdings performed in recent earnings reports?
Seagate Technology Holdings has consistently beaten analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters. Most recently, it reported $0.89 EPS against an estimate of $0.87 for the quarter ending July 28, 2026, following strong positive surprises in prior quarters that correlated with significant stock price increases.
What is Seagate Technology Holdings' valuation compared to its sector?
Seagate Technology Holdings trades at a P/E ratio of 61.99, which is considerably higher than the Technology sector average of 25.5. However, its revenue growth rate of 48.5% significantly outpaces the sector average of 10.0%, potentially justifying the premium valuation.
What is the analyst consensus for Seagate Technology Holdings?
The analyst consensus for Seagate Technology Holdings is largely positive, with 25 analysts covering the stock. The consensus rating is 'Buy', supported by 4 'Strong Buy' and 18 'Buy' ratings, with a median price target of $1150.00.
How does Seagate Technology Holdings' revenue growth compare to its peers?
Seagate Technology Holdings is demonstrating exceptional revenue growth at 48.5%, far exceeding the sector average of 10.0%. Analysts project continued strong growth, with current quarter estimates at +57.00% year-over-year and next year's estimates at +34.00%.