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As of September 23, 2026, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) trades at $20.77. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $27.00, 30.0% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $27.00 across 11 analysts. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $20.25.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. NASDAQ
$20.77
-0.1300 (-0.62%)
At close: Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is currently trading at $20.77, below its 50-day SMA of $20.25 and above its 200-day SMA of $17.19. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 18.6% and a healthy profit margin of 9.12%. Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a median price target of $27.00, implying a 30.0% upside from the current price. Despite a moderate sell signal from insider transactions, with $32.4M in total sales versus $2.8M in total purchases, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The company's valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 14.98 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.27, appear attractive when compared to sector averages. The recent earnings beat in the quarter to June 2026, with EPS of $1.07 against an estimate of $0.72, further supports a positive fundamental outlook.
PGY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$21.30
Day Range
$20.64 to $21.60
Prev Close
$20.90
Volume
1.77M
52-Week Range
$10.40 to $44.99
Market Cap
$1.73B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-56%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
PGY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, PGY beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
PGY Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+30.00% Upside
Median of 11 analysts (12-month)
$27.00
AI Technical Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is exhibiting neutral momentum with an RSI of 49.1, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($20.25 and $17.19), suggesting a generally positive trend, though it is currently below its 20-day exponential moving average of $21.11. Key support is observed around the 200-day SMA at $17.19, while resistance may be encountered near the 50-day SMA at $20.25 and the 20-day EMA at $21.11. Trading volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 1.77 million compared to an average of 2.19 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders at current levels.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling activity closely, as the current trend indicates a moderate sell signal from management.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($20.25 and $17.19), suggesting a generally positive trend, but watch for resistance near the 20-day EMA.
- Consider position sizing carefully given the moderate insider selling and the stock's current trading range.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat in Q2 2026
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. exceeded EPS estimates by 48.61% in the quarter to June 2026, reporting $1.07 versus $0.72, leading to a 9.24% stock price increase.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
11 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $27.00, representing a 30.0% upside from the current price.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Trend
Insiders have sold a net $23.8 million in stock versus $501K in purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Trading Below 20-Day EMA
The stock is currently trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, suggesting potential short-term downward pressure.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is expected to see continued growth, with analysts projecting revenue to increase by 13.00% in the current year to $1.5 billion and by 16.00% next year to $1.7 billion. The company's strong profit margins and positive earnings surprises provide a solid foundation for future performance. The median analyst price target of $27.00 suggests a 30.0% upside, indicating confidence in the company's ability to execute its growth strategy. Key upside catalysts could include continued strong earnings beats and successful expansion into new markets, while downside risks involve persistent insider selling and potential competitive pressures within the technology sector.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 1.73B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.98 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.41 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 44.99 |
| 52 Week Low | 10.40 |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. presents a compelling valuation, trading at a P/E ratio of 14.98, which is significantly below the sector median of 34. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.27 is also lower than the sector average of 7.5, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its revenue. The company boasts a strong profit margin of 9.12% and a return on equity of 19.46%, outperforming the sector average ROE of 13.4%. While its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34 is slightly above the sector average, the strong profitability and revenue growth of 18.6% suggest a healthy financial footing.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. recently reported a strong earnings beat for the quarter to June 2026, delivering an actual EPS of $1.07 against an estimated $0.72, a surprise of 48.61%. This positive result was accompanied by a 9.24% increase in stock price. The company has a history of surprising positively on earnings, with a notable 445.45% surprise in the quarter to March 2026.
Key Risks
Insider selling represents a moderate risk, with net sales totaling $23.8 million against $501K in purchases, signaling potential caution from management. Additionally, the stock's current price is below its 20-day EMA, which could indicate short-term downward pressure. While revenue growth is strong, the current quarter's revenue growth estimate is slightly negative (-2.3%), warranting close monitoring.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 49.10 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.05 |
| SMA 50 | 20.25 |
| SMA 200 | 17.19 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($20.25) above the 200-day SMA ($17.19), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.42
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PGY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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PGY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$20.35
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$20.77
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$18.93
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (49.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$21.37
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$22.39
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$23.41
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
PGY is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.65%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 23, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PGY in April 2021 would be worth about $1,731 today, compared with about $18,588 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PGY today could grow to about $2,876 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $21,816 and a bear case around $379. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PGY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $12.62 for PGY by 2030 in the base case, from $20.77 today (0.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $3.50. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PGY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $9.66 | $18.34 | $34.80 |
| 2028 | $6.54 | $16.19 | $40.06 |
| 2029 | $4.71 | $14.29 | $43.36 |
| 2030 | $3.50 | $12.62 | $45.45 |
| 2031 | $2.66 | $11.14 | $46.68 |
| 2032 | $2.05 | $9.83 | $47.25 |
| 2033 | $1.59 | $8.68 | $47.30 |
| 2034 | $1.25 | $7.66 | $46.94 |
| 2035 | $0.9895 | $6.77 | $46.26 |
| 2036 | $0.7873 | $5.97 | $45.31 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PGY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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PGY Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$501.0K
2 Transactions
Sold
$23.8M
60 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$392.5K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2025 | YULZARI YAHAV HAIM
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 355.7K | $5.4M |
| Nov 11, 2024 | PARDO AVITAL
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 150.0K | $2.3M |
| Nov 11, 2024 | YULZARI YAHAV HAIM
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 150.0K | $2.3M |
| May 8, 2025 | PARDO AVITAL
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 165.5K | $2.0M |
| May 8, 2025 | YULZARI YAHAV HAIM
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 160.7K | $2.0M |
| May 12, 2025 | PARDO AVITAL
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 116.5K | $1.8M |
| Sep 9, 2025 | PERROS EVANGELOS
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 23.8K | $902.4K |
| Jul 3, 2025 | ROSEN TAMI
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 28.5K | $632.6K |
| Aug 3, 2026 | ROSEN TAMI
Director
|
Sell | 28.2K | $619.4K |
| Sep 15, 2025 | ROSEN TAMI
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 13.9K | $571.4K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $12.62, with a downside scenario at $3.50 and an upside scenario at $45.45. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock a buy right now?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 79 out of 100. The median analyst price target of $27.00 suggests a 30.0% upside from the current price of $20.77.
What are the biggest risks facing Pagaya Technologies Ltd.?
The primary risks for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. include moderate insider selling totaling $23.8 million and the stock trading below its 20-day EMA. Additionally, the current quarter's revenue growth estimate is slightly negative, which warrants close observation.
How does Pagaya Technologies Ltd. compare to its sector peers?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. trades at a P/E ratio of 14.98 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.27, both significantly lower than the sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively. Its revenue growth of 18.6% also compares favorably to the sector average of 24.1%.
What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s recent earnings performance?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. recently reported a strong earnings beat for the quarter to June 2026, with EPS of $1.07 versus an estimate of $0.72, a 48.61% surprise. This follows a pattern of positive earnings surprises.
What is the technical outlook for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock?
The technical outlook for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is neutral, with an RSI at 49.1. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($20.25 and $17.19), indicating a generally positive trend, but is currently below its 20-day EMA.
What is the consensus analyst rating for Pagaya Technologies Ltd.?
The consensus analyst rating for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 'Buy', supported by 11 analysts. There are no 'Hold', 'Sell', or 'Strong Sell' ratings, and 2 analysts rate it as 'Strong Buy'.