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01

The short version

Where NZD/JPY stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.

NZD/JPY at a glance

New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen (NZD/JPY): Hold, 55/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages (¥89.90 and ¥92.48).
  • Volatility Daily moves average 0.34% (30-day standard deviation).

Figures as of October 16, 2026.

CleaRank Financial AI

The New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen pair is currently trading at 89.47, below its 50-day simple moving average of 89.90 and its 200-day simple moving average of 92.48.

This positioning suggests a neutral to cautious outlook for the pair. Global macroeconomic trends, including inflation differentials and central bank policy divergence, are key drivers for this currency pair. The Bank of Japan's recent shift away from negative interest rates and yield curve control introduces a new dynamic, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance will continue to influence the NZD's direction. Geopolitical developments also remain a background risk, potentially impacting risk sentiment and currency flows.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from NZD/JPY's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.

02

Price and trading

The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.

2.0

Trend checks

0/4
  • Price above its 50-day average ›
    The price of ¥89.47 is 0.5% below the 50-day simple moving average of ¥89.90.
  • Price above its 200-day average ›
    The price is 3.3% below the 200-day simple moving average of ¥92.48.
  • 50-day average above the 200-day ›
    The 50-day average (¥89.90) is 2.8% below the 200-day average (¥92.48), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.
  • In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
    The price sits at 41% of its 52-week range, between ¥85.34 and ¥95.49.

NZD/JPY share price

Pick a period: each tab shows how far NZD/JPY has moved over it, to the last close.

Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
Start ¥86.09 Oct 16, 2025
Latest close ¥89.47 Oct 16, 2026
High ¥95.38 May 30, 2026
Low ¥86.09 Oct 16, 2025

Today's trading

Where NZD/JPY sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.

Day range 1.04% wide
¥89.47
¥88.71 ¥89.63
52-week range 41% of the way up
¥89.47
¥85.34 ¥95.49
Open
¥88.78
Previous close
¥88.78
03

Key levels

The figures the trade plan is built on.

Key levels

The averages and the year's range that NZD/JPY's trade plan is built on.

Price
¥89.47
50-day average
¥89.90
price -0.48%
200-day average
¥92.48
price -3.26%
14-day RSI
54.8
buyers ahead
52w low ¥85.34 200-day ¥92.48 50-day ¥89.90 Price ¥89.47 52w high ¥95.49

Short-term trend: NZD/JPY is below its 50-day average of ¥89.90.

Long-term trend: It is below its 200-day average of ¥92.48.

52-week range: ¥85.34 to ¥95.49; the price sits 41% of the way up.

What the numbers say

CleaRank Financial AI's reading of NZD/JPY's drivers and risks.

The big picture

Central bank policy divergence remains a primary driver for the NZD/JPY currency pair.

The Bank of Japan's decision to end negative interest rates and yield-curve control marks a significant policy shift, potentially leading to higher Japanese yields over time. This contrasts with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's approach, which has been navigating domestic inflation pressures. The trajectory of interest rate differentials between New Zealand and Japan will be critical. Any indication of a more hawkish stance from the RBNZ or a less aggressive tightening path from the BoJ could influence the pair's direction. Global economic data, particularly inflation reports and employment figures from both countries, will be closely monitored for clues on future monetary policy decisions.

Macro drivers
Recent economic releases for the New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen have focused on inflation trends and labor market conditions. Higher-than-expected inflation in New Zealand could prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain a hawkish bias, supporting the NZD. Conversely, softer economic data from Japan might lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a more cautious approach to further policy normalization. These macroeconomic indicators are key for shaping market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions. Investors will be looking for any signs of divergence in economic performance that could widen or narrow the interest rate gap between the two economies, thereby impacting the NZD/JPY exchange rate.
Key risks
A significant risk to the current outlook for NZD/JPY stems from potential policy surprises from either the Reserve Bank of New Zealand or the Bank of Japan. An unexpected shift in monetary policy direction could trigger sharp price movements. Geopolitical escalations or a significant downturn in global growth could also impact the pair by altering risk sentiment and capital flows. Also, intervention risk from Japanese authorities to manage excessive Yen weakness remains a background concern.
04

AI analysis and technicals

CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.

4.0

Momentum checks

2/3
  • RSI not overbought or oversold ›
    The 14-day RSI is 54.8, in neutral territory.
  • RSI above 50 ›
    An RSI of 54.8 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.
  • MACD line above zero ›
    The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.

CleaRank AI analysis of NZD/JPY

The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.

AI analyst consensus
55/100
Hold
What the AI sees
Momentum has shifted for NZD/JPY: the 14-day RSI has moved from a previous level to 54.79, indicating neutral momentum. The pair is currently trading above its 20-day exponential moving average at 88.96, but below its 50-day simple moving average at 89.90 and its 200-day simple moving average at 92.48. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 331.12 suggests the pair is in overbought territory on this shorter-term indicator. The current price action indicates that the 50-day SMA at 89.90 is acting as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this level would be required to signal a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA at 88.96 could lead to further downside pressure, testing lower support levels.
Market outlook
The outlook for NZD/JPY over the next 6-12 months is cautiously neutral, with potential for downside if key support levels break. The pair faces significant resistance at the 50-day simple moving average of 89.90, and the 200-day simple moving average at 92.48 presents a longer-term ceiling. A sustained move above 90.00 would be required to shift the technical picture to bullish, potentially targeting higher levels. However, any signs of renewed weakness in the New Zealand Dollar or unexpected dovish signals from the RBNZ could see the pair retest its 20-day EMA at 88.96 and potentially move lower. Global risk sentiment will also have a part to play, with a flight to safety potentially benefiting the Japanese Yen.

Technical indicators

Momentum and trend for NZD/JPY, from its daily closes.

Technical rating Bearish 1 of 4 signals bullish
  • RSI Neutral
  • SMA cross Bearish
  • Price vs SMA Bearish
  • MACD Bearish
Momentum Neutral
54.814-day RSI
Oversold <30 Neutral Overbought >70
MACD (12, 26) -0.257 Bearish
Trend Death cross
-0.5%price against the 50-day average
200-day ¥92.48 50-day ¥89.90 Price ¥89.47
Price against the 200-day -3.3% Bearish

As of October 16, 2026, with NZD/JPY at ¥89.47, its 14-day RSI is 54.8 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is ¥89.90 and its 200-day is ¥92.48.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

What NZD/JPY moves with

Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.

-1 0 +1
S&P 500 (SPY) +0.48 Moderate
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.47 Moderate
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.27 Weak
Gold (XAU) +0.15 Weak

As of October 16, 2026, NZD/JPY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.48 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.47 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.27 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.15 with gold (XAU).

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05

A trade plan, if you want one

Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.

NZD/JPY trade plan

Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.

Your bias
Risk per trade 2%
Conservative Aggressive
Portfolio value
¥
Position size: Enter portfolio size →

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Conservative
¥88.57
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
¥89.47
At current price
Enter now if confident

Risk management

Stop loss
¥85.91
Max loss
-3.0%
Volatility-adjusted stop Set from the RSI (54.8) and recent volatility.

Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Target 1
¥91.23
+3% (Conservative) +2.0% (Aggressive)
Target 2
¥93.00
+5% (Conservative) +4.0% (Aggressive)
Target 3
¥95.66
+8% (Conservative) +6.9% (Aggressive)

With leverage, losses on NZD/JPY can exceed the deposit, and news can gap the price through these levels. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Risk profile

How much NZD/JPY tends to move, against the market and on its own.

Daily volatility
0.34%
30-day standard deviation
52-week range
¥89.47
¥85.34 41% of the way up ¥95.49

Compare NZD/JPY

Put NZD/JPY side by side with other forex pairs and benchmarks.

06

The long record

NZD/JPY's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.

6.0

Track record checks

1/2
  • Average daily move under 2% ›
    The price has moved 0.34% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).
  • Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
    $10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $11,979, against $36,340 in the S&P 500 (SPY).

Growth of $10,000

What $10,000 put into NZD/JPY in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.

NZD/JPY today
$11,979
from $10,000 in October 2016
S&P 500 today
$36,340
the same $10,000 in SPY
Behind the index by
$24,361
0.3x the index result
Total change
+20%
1.2x the starting amount
20182020202220242026
NZD/JPY S&P 500 (SPY)

Against the market: NZD/JPY trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $11,979 against $36,340.

A $10,000 investment in NZD/JPY in October 2016 would be worth about $11,979 today, compared with about $36,340 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.

Seasonal patterns

Which calendar months have been kind to NZD/JPY, and which have not.

Jan7/10 upFeb5/10 upMar2/10 upApr4/10 upMay7/10 upJun6/10 upJul7/10 upAug2/10 upSep5/10 upOct5/9 upNov6/10 upDec7/10 up

Strongest month, November: an average of +1.21%, up in 6 of 10 years.

Weakest month, August: an average of -1.52%, up in 2 of 10 years.

This month, October: has averaged +0.90%, up in 5 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.

Over the last 10 years, NZD/JPY's strongest calendar month has been November (average +1.21%, up in 6 of 10 years) and its weakest August (average -1.52%, up in 2 of 10 years).

Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices.

07

Long-term scenarios

Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.

Monte Carlo projection

Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in NZD/JPY, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.

Downside, 2036
$6,721
10th percentile
Base case, 2036
$10,000
median path
Upside, 2036
$14,878
90th percentile
202620282030203220342036
Upside (90th) Base case (median) Downside (10th) 10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NZD/JPY today could grow to about $10,000 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $14,878 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $6,721. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

NZD/JPY 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)

The same simulation in share prices, year by year.

Price today
¥89.47
Base case, 2030
¥89.47
1.0x over 4 years
Range, 2030
¥69.59 to ¥115
10th to 90th percentile

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near ¥89.47 for NZD/JPY by 2030 in the base case, from ¥89.47 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near ¥69.59. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NZD/JPY's historical return distribution, not price targets.

NZD/JPY simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile range base today
2027 ¥78.90 ¥89.47 ¥101
2028 ¥74.90 ¥89.47 ¥107
2029 ¥71.97 ¥89.47 ¥111
2030 ¥69.59 ¥89.47 ¥115
2031 ¥67.55 ¥89.47 ¥118

Method: a lognormal simulation of NZD/JPY's own volatility with no trend assumed, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

08

Questions people ask

Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current outlook for the New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen in October 2026?
The New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen is trading at 89.47 in October 2026, facing resistance at the 50-day SMA of 89.90. The outlook is neutral to cautious, with key drivers being central bank policy divergence and global economic trends.
What are the main technical indicators for NZD/JPY?
In October 2026, the 14-day RSI is 54.8, indicating neutral momentum. The pair is above the 20-day EMA (88.96) but below the 50-day SMA (89.90) and 200-day SMA (92.48), suggesting resistance at the 50-day SMA.
What are the long-term projection outcomes for NZD/JPY?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations for 2030, the base price projection for NZD/JPY is 89.47, with a downside price of 69.59 and an upside price of 115.02. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.
Why is the NZD/JPY trading below its 200-day moving average?
The NZD/JPY is trading below its 200-day simple moving average of 92.48, indicating that the longer-term trend is currently bearish or consolidating, with overhead resistance limiting upward price action.
What are NZD/JPY's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, November has been NZD/JPY's strongest month on average (+1.21%, rising in 6 of 10 years) and August its weakest (-1.52%, rising in 2 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does NZD/JPY move with the stock market?
Over the past year NZD/JPY's daily returns were moderately correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.48). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.47; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.27; Gold (XAU): +0.15. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in NZD/JPY be worth today?
$10,000 put into NZD/JPY in October 2016 would be worth about $11,979 today, against about $36,340 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
How volatile is NZD/JPY?
NZD/JPY's daily price moves average 0.34% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between ¥85.34 and ¥95.49.

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor (CTA), or financial regulatory body. The commodity and forex analysis presented for NZD/JPY is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an offer to trade any commodity, currency, or derivative instrument. Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. Prices are influenced by geopolitical events, central bank policy, supply chain disruptions, and macroeconomic factors that can cause rapid, unpredictable price movements. All analysis is AI-generated based on historical price data and technical indicators which may not predict future market conditions. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed. You should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Consult a qualified financial advisor or commodity trading advisor before trading. Analysis generated on October 16, 2026.

Disclaimer:

Engaging in financial markets carries significant risk of total capital loss. Markets are volatile, unpredictable, and past success does not guarantee future results. Never invest funds you cannot afford to lose. CleaRank does not offer financial, investment, or advisory services. We provide no recommendations, endorsements, or guarantees regarding market outcomes. You alone are responsible for your decisions.

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