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Euro / Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY)

Euro / Japanese Yen

¥177.08 0.4666 (0.26%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
Sell
35 / 100
Last updated: • Price at analysis: ¥177.08
CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Anthony Beachey, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
The Euro/Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) is currently trading at 177.08, below its 20-day exponential moving average of 177.73. This positioning suggests a near-term bearish bias. The pair is also below its 50-day simple moving average of 179.52 and its 200-day simple moving average of 183.67, indicating a broader downtrend. Recent price action shows a lack of upward momentum, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.41, signaling bearish momentum. This technical setup, combined with potential divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, points towards continued weakness for the pair.

EUR/JPY at a glance

Euro / Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY): Sell, 35/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

  • Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages (¥179.52 and ¥183.67).
  • Volatility Daily moves average 0.30% (30-day standard deviation).

As of October 15, 2026, Euro / Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) trades at ¥177.08. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 39, showing bearish momentum without being oversold, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of ¥179.52.

Figures as of October 15, 2026.

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Figures we compute ourselves from EUR/JPY's own price history. Tap one to see it in context.

Seasonality
Jun +1.5% · Jan -0.4%
average best and worst month; Jun rose in 7 of 10 years
Moves with
SPY +0.17 · BTC +0.11 · Gold +0.03
1-year correlation of daily returns
2030 simulation
¥177.08 base
10th-90th percentile ¥144.47 to ¥217.06

EUR/JPY Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Open
¥176.61
Day Range
¥176.52 to ¥177.28
Prev Close
¥176.62
52-Week Range
¥174.81 to ¥187.96

EUR/JPY Analysis

AI Analyst Consensus Score Sell
EUR/JPY is currently trading below its 20-day EMA at 177.73, indicating immediate downward pressure. The price is also below the 50-day SMA at 179.52 and the 200-day SMA at 183.67, confirming a bearish trend. The 14-day RSI is at 39.41, which is classified as bearish momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -95.01 further supports a bearish view, suggesting prices are significantly below their typical range. The Stochastic indicator at 40.81 shows no immediate signs of overbought conditions but indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum.
Market Outlook
The outlook for EUR/JPY is bearish over the next 6 to 12 months, with the pair currently trading below its key moving averages and exhibiting bearish momentum. The immediate resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA of 177.73, with further resistance at the 50-day SMA of 179.52 and the 200-day SMA of 183.67. A break below the current price of 177.08 could lead to further downside. This bearish thesis could be challenged by a more aggressive tightening cycle from the European Central Bank than currently anticipated, or by a significant shift in the Bank of Japan's policy stance towards faster normalization. Geopolitical instability in Europe could also lead to a flight to the Yen's safe-haven appeal, exacerbating downward pressure on EUR/JPY.

Market Correlations

How this forex pair moves relative to other assets

Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.

S&P 500 (SPY) +0.17
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.18
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.11
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU) +0.03
Weak correlation

As of October 15, 2026, EUR/JPY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.17 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.18 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.11 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.03 with gold (XAU).

Check Custom Correlation

How does any other asset move with EUR/JPY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.

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Key Statistics

EUR/JPY is analysed on price action, rate differentials and macro flows: 50-day average ¥179.52, 200-day average ¥183.67, RSI 39. The trade plan below is built on these levels.
52 Week High 187.96
52 Week Low 174.81
The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a key driver for EUR/JPY. While the ECB may be considering or implementing tighter monetary policy to combat inflation, the BoJ has recently ended its negative interest rate policy and yield-curve control, but its overall stance may remain more accommodative than other major central banks. This policy divergence creates an environment where the Yen could strengthen against the Euro if interest rate differentials widen in favor of Japan, or if market sentiment shifts towards safe-haven assets. Economic data releases from both the Eurozone and Japan will be critical in shaping future central bank decisions and, consequently, the EUR/JPY trajectory.

Macro & Supply-Demand Drivers

Recent economic releases from the Eurozone have shown mixed signals regarding inflation and growth, influencing the ECB's policy considerations. Similarly, Japanese economic data, including inflation trends and employment figures, will be closely watched for clues on the Bank of Japan's future policy path. The interplay of these macroeconomic indicators will dictate the interest rate differentials that underpin the EUR/JPY exchange rate.

Key Risks

A significant risk to the bearish outlook is a sudden hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan, which could lead to rapid Yen appreciation. Geopolitical events impacting the Eurozone could also trigger a flight to safety, benefiting the Yen. Conversely, unexpected inflation spikes in the Eurozone could force the ECB into more aggressive tightening, potentially supporting the Euro against the Yen.

Technical Indicators i

RSI (14-day) 39.41
MACD (12, 26) -0.751
SMA (50-day) 179.52
SMA (200-day) 183.67
Technical Rating Bearish
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: ¥179.52, 200-day: ¥183.67), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.

As of October 15, 2026, with EUR/JPY at ¥177.08, its 14-day RSI is 39.4 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is ¥179.52 and its 200-day is ¥183.67.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

EUR/JPY Trade Plans

Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels

Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative 2% Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →

Short entry pick an entry style

Conservative
¥180.62
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
¥177.08
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move

Risk Management

STOP LOSS
¥186.04
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (39.4) and current market volatility

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

TARGET 1
¥171.59
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
¥162.56
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
¥153.53
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Calculate Your Trade
Position Size Stop Loss Risk/Reward P&L Calculator Trailing Stop Fibonacci Pivot Points Win Rate Expectancy

With leverage, losses on EUR/JPY can exceed the deposit, and news can gap the price through these levels. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Growth of $10,000

A $10,000 investment in EUR/JPY in October 2016 would be worth about $15,455 today, compared with about $36,237 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.

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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in EUR/JPY today could grow to about $10,000 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $13,796 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,248. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

EUR/JPY 2030 Scenarios (Monte Carlo)

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near ¥177 for EUR/JPY by 2030 in the base case, from ¥177 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near ¥144. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on EUR/JPY's historical return distribution, not price targets.

EUR/JPY simulated price paths by year
Year 10th percentile Base case 90th percentile
2027 ¥160 ¥177 ¥196
2028 ¥153 ¥177 ¥204
2029 ¥148 ¥177 ¥211
2030 ¥144 ¥177 ¥217
2031 ¥141 ¥177 ¥222

Method: a lognormal simulation of EUR/JPY's own volatility with no trend assumed, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the long-term outlook for EUR/JPY based on current projections?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations for 2030, the base case projection for EUR/JPY is 177.08. The downside projection is 144.47, and the upside projection is 217.06. These are statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.
Why is EUR/JPY trading below its key moving averages in October 2026?
EUR/JPY is trading below its 20-day EMA (177.73), 50-day SMA (179.52), and 200-day SMA (183.67) due to bearish momentum indicated by its 14-day RSI of 39.4 and CCI of -95.01.
What is the current momentum for EUR/JPY?
The current momentum for EUR/JPY is bearish, as indicated by a 14-day RSI value of 39.4 and a CCI of -95.01. The MACD at -0.75 also suggests downward momentum.
What are the key technical support and resistance levels for EUR/JPY?
Key technical levels include the 20-day EMA at 177.73 acting as immediate resistance, followed by the 50-day SMA at 179.52 and the 200-day SMA at 183.67. Current price is 177.08.
What are EUR/JPY's best and worst months?
Over the last 10 years, June has been EUR/JPY's strongest month on average (+1.49%, rising in 7 of 10 years) and January its weakest (-0.43%, rising in 3 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does EUR/JPY move with the stock market?
Over the past year EUR/JPY's daily returns were weakly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.17). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.18; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.11; Gold (XAU): +0.03. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in EUR/JPY be worth today?
$10,000 put into EUR/JPY in October 2016 would be worth about $15,455 today, against about $36,237 for the same amount in the S&P 500.
What does CleaRank's simulation show for EUR/JPY in 2030?
CleaRank's Monte Carlo simulation, built from EUR/JPY's own historical volatility, puts the 2030 base case near ¥177.08, with 10th and 90th percentile outcomes of ¥144.47 and ¥217.06. It is a range of simulated outcomes, not a price target.
How volatile is EUR/JPY?
EUR/JPY's daily price moves average 0.30% (30-day standard deviation of daily returns). Over the past 52 weeks it traded between ¥174.81 and ¥187.96.
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Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor (CTA), or financial regulatory body. The commodity and forex analysis presented for EUR/JPY is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an offer to trade any commodity, currency, or derivative instrument. Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. Prices are influenced by geopolitical events, central bank policy, supply chain disruptions, and macroeconomic factors that can cause rapid, unpredictable price movements. All analysis is AI-generated based on historical price data and technical indicators which may not predict future market conditions. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed. You should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Consult a qualified financial advisor or commodity trading advisor before trading. Analysis generated on October 15, 2026.

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