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As of September 27, 2026, US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) trades at MXN 17.68. CleaRank's model target is MXN 17.37, derived from technical levels rather than analyst coverage. RSI at 85 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of MXN 17.09.
US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN)
US Dollar / Mexican Peso FOREX
MXN 17.68
0.004330 (0.02%)
At close: Sep 26, 5:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
35 / 100
The US Dollar Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) is currently trading at 17.6838. The pair has shown strength, trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages. This upward momentum is further supported by a strong Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 85.4, indicating significant buying pressure. However, this level also suggests the pair is in overbought territory, hinting at a potential for a short-term correction.
USD/MXN Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
MXN 17.68
Day Range
MXN 17.67 to MXN 17.74
Prev Close
MXN 17.68
52-Week Range
MXN 16.85 to MXN 18.17
USD/MXN Analysis
CleaRank AI Target
-1.77% Downside
Our model estimate (not an analyst consensus)
MXN 17.37
AI Technical Analysis
The USD/MXN pair is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of 17.09 and its 200-day SMA of 17.37, with the price (17.6838) also above the 20-day EMA of 17.33. The RSI is at an extremely overbought 85.4, and the Stochastic indicator is at 88.5. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is also elevated at 110.77. These indicators collectively signal that the pair is significantly overextended to the upside, suggesting a high probability of a pullback towards support levels.
ProTips
- Monitor Banxico's forward guidance closely for shifts in monetary policy expectations.
- Watch for any signs of technical exhaustion or a clear break below the 50-day SMA as confirmation of a bearish reversal.
- Be aware of geopolitical developments that could impact emerging market currency sentiment.
Market Outlook
The outlook for USD/MXN over the next 6 to 12 months is cautiously bearish. While the pair has demonstrated strength above key moving averages, the extremely overbought technical indicators suggest a correction is likely. A move back towards the 200-day SMA at 17.37 would be the initial target on a pullback. Should Banxico adopt a more hawkish stance than the Federal Reserve, or if geopolitical risks escalate, the Peso could strengthen significantly against the Dollar. Conversely, a sudden shift in Fed policy towards easing could provide support for USD/MXN, invalidating the bearish thesis.
Market Correlations
How this forex pair moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
-0.46
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.44
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.33
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with USD/MXN? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| USD/MXN is analysed on price action, rate differentials and macro flows: 50-day average MXN 17.09, 200-day average MXN 17.37, RSI 85. The trade plan below is built on these levels. | |
| 52 Week High | 18.17 |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Low | 16.85 |
The divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and Mexico's central bank (Banxico) is a key driver for the USD/MXN pair. While the Fed may maintain a hawkish stance, expectations are growing for Banxico to potentially hold or even increase interest rates to combat inflation and support the Peso. This policy divergence, if it continues, could put downward pressure on USD/MXN.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Recent economic releases from Mexico have shown mixed signals, with inflation remaining a persistent concern. Employment data has been relatively stable, but the overall economic growth trajectory will be closely watched. Any signs of slowing growth or persistent inflation could influence Banxico's policy decisions, thereby impacting the USD/MXN pair.
Key Risks
The primary risk to the current bullish technical setup for USD/MXN is a sharp reversal due to the extremely overbought RSI. Geopolitical tensions or unexpected shifts in US monetary policy could also trigger significant volatility. Also, any intervention by Mexican authorities to stabilize the Peso could lead to rapid price movements.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 85.40 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.17 |
| SMA 50 | 17.09 |
| SMA 200 | 17.37 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: MXN 17.09, 200-day: MXN 17.37), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 85.4 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
USD/MXN Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
MXN 18.04
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
MXN 17.68
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
MXN 18.69
MAX LOSS
-3.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (85.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
MXN 17.14
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
MXN 16.23
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
MXN 15.33
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Commodity & Forex Risk Disclaimer
Commodity and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial deposit due to leverage. This AI-generated analysis of USD/MXN assumes standard market conditions and does not account for sudden geopolitical events, central bank decisions, or supply disruptions which can invalidate technical levels instantly. This is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in USD/MXN in September 2016 would be worth about $9,118 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in USD/MXN today could grow to about $13,026 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $21,082 and a bear case around $8,048. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
USD/MXN Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $19.66 for USD/MXN by 2030 in the base case, from $17.68 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $14.50. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on USD/MXN's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $15.59 | $18.16 | $21.14 |
| 2028 | $15.03 | $18.64 | $23.12 |
| 2029 | $14.71 | $19.14 | $24.92 |
| 2030 | $14.50 | $19.66 | $26.65 |
| 2031 | $14.36 | $20.18 | $28.37 |
| 2032 | $14.27 | $20.72 | $30.09 |
| 2033 | $14.22 | $21.28 | $31.83 |
| 2034 | $14.20 | $21.85 | $33.61 |
| 2035 | $14.21 | $22.43 | $35.42 |
| 2036 | $14.23 | $23.03 | $37.28 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using USD/MXN's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key technical levels for USD/MXN?
As of September 2026, USD/MXN is trading above its 50-day SMA of 17.09 and 200-day SMA of 17.37. The immediate resistance is not explicitly defined, but the current price of 17.6838 is approaching recent highs, while the 200-day SMA at 17.37 now acts as a key support level.
What is the long-term projection for USD/MXN?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case projection for USD/MXN in 2030 is 19.66. The simulation also indicates a downside price of 14.50 and an upside price of 26.65. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.
Why is USD/MXN trading at 17.6838 in September 2026?
The current price of 17.6838 reflects a combination of factors including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and technical momentum. The pair has shown strong upward movement, pushing it into overbought territory on technical indicators.
What is the outlook for Mexican Peso interest rates?
Expectations are for Banxico to maintain a cautious approach to interest rates, potentially holding them steady or even considering hikes if inflation remains elevated. This contrasts with potential shifts in US monetary policy, creating a dynamic for the USD/MXN pair.
How does the RSI status impact USD/MXN?
The current RSI at 85.4 indicates that USD/MXN is in overbought territory. This suggests that the recent upward trend may be unsustainable in the short term and a pullback or consolidation is likely.
What are the main risks facing USD/MXN?
Key risks include a sharp technical reversal from overbought conditions, unexpected shifts in US or Mexican monetary policy, and potential geopolitical events that could impact emerging market currencies.
What is the consensus rating for USD/MXN?
The consensus rating for USD/MXN is currently Sell, reflecting concerns about the pair being overextended technically and potential shifts in central bank policy.