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Head-to-head · Commodity vs ETF
Gold vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
vs
ETF·NYSE
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY
$765.37
▲ 0.71%
72 / 100 AI score
XAU/USD vs SPY: the verdict
How XAU/USD and SPY compare today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
The verdict
CleaRank Financial AI favours
SPY
XAU/USD
SPY
14/100
AI score
72/100
+0.6%
1-year change
+13.0%
20.8%
Volatility (30d, yearly)
9.8%
31.9
RSI (14-day)
47.3
The verdict
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) comes out ahead on CleaRank's model, scoring 72/100 (Buy) against 14/100 (Strong Sell) for Gold Spot (XAU/USD). The widest gap is the trend: for SPY, the price is 5.22% above its 200-day average, and the 50-day average is 5.53% above the 200-day. For XAU/USD, the price is 6.25% below its 200-day average and 3.30% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 2.97% below the 200-day.
Outlook
XAU/USD would need to regain its 50-day average at $4,208.35 and its 200-day at $4,337.26 to turn its downtrend. SPY sits between its 50-day average at $767.59 and its 200-day at $727.39.
Price, side by side
Both prices start at 0% on the first day of the period you pick, so the moves compare directly.
Rebased price
-6%-4%-2%0%-0.8%-6.4%
Oct '26
0%+5%+10%+15%+3.6%-1.6%
Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+7%-14%
May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
0%+10%+20%+30%+13%-2.4%
Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
0%+20%+40%+60%+80%+52%+35%
May '25Aug '25Dec '25Mar '26Jul '26Oct '26
Over 1 year: XAU/USD lost 2.4% and SPY gained 13.0%, a gap of 15.4 points in SPY's favour.
Key metrics
Size and recent performance for each.
Size and market performance
XAU/USD
SPY
N/A
Size (net assets / market cap)
$809.2B
N/A
Volume (shares, last session)
31.7M
10%
Position in 52-week range
89%
-3.3%
Price against 50-day average
-0.3%
Reading
SPY charges an expense ratio of 0.095%.
Momentum and sentiment
The indicators behind each AI score, side by side.
Indicators side by side
XAU/USD
SPY
14/100
AI score
72/100
31.9
RSI (14-day)
47.3
-3.3%
Price against 50-day average
-0.3%
-6.2%
Price against 200-day average
+5.2%
Technicals
XAU/USD is in a downtrend, trading 3.30% below its 50-day average and 6.25% below its 200-day average. Its 14-day RSI is 31.8, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative. SPY is in a mixed trend, trading 0.29% below its 50-day average and 5.22% above its 200-day average. Its 14-day RSI is 47.3, in the neutral zone. SPY sits higher in its 52-week range, at 89% against 8% for XAU/USD.
Sentiment
Over the past month XAU/USD dropped 6.47%, and over three months it slid 1.66%. SPY lost 0.78% across the past month but gained 3.56% over three months.
Risk and practical tips
How much each moves, how much return each has paid for that risk, and what to watch if you hold either.
Risk measures
XAU/USD
SPY
20.8%
Volatility (30d, yearly)
9.8%
0.52
Sharpe ratio
0.72
Risk
On an average day, XAU/USD makes the bigger move: 0.83% compared with 0.66% for SPY.
ProTips
- For XAU/USD, watch the 20-day EMA at $4,102.11 above the price and the 52-week low at $3,886.49 below it.
- For SPY, watch the 50-day SMA at $767.59 above the price and the 200-day SMA at $727.39 below it.
XAU/USD vs SPY: long-term scenarios
Simulated paths from each price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Simulated growth of $10,000
$10K$20K$30K$40K$50K$48.7K$23.4K$18.8K$10K
202620282030203220342036
XAU/USD
SPY
$5,325
Downside, 2036 (10th)
$11,263
$10,000
Base case, 2036 (median)
$23,418
$18,780
Upside, 2036 (90th)
$48,690
In the median simulated path, $10,000 in XAU/USD grows to about $10,000 and $10,000 in SPY to about $23,400 by 2036. The paths come from each asset's own historical volatility and trend; they are statistical outcomes, not forecasts.
Trade plans for both
Entry, stop and target levels from each moving average and its volatility. Educational, not advice.
Actionable Trade Plans
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
XAU/USD
Current: $4,062.91
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$3,859.77
Aggressive
$4,062.91
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$3,743.97
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5% from current
$4,266.06
+10% from current
$4,469.20
+15% from current
$4,672.35
SPY
Current: $765.37
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$727.10
Aggressive
$765.37
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$705.29
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5% from current
$803.64
+10% from current
$841.91
+15% from current
$880.18
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
The content is for educational purposes only. Assets like XAU/USD often involve significant leverage, which magnifies both gains and losses. This analysis minimizes the impact of spread costs and overnight fees, which can erode your account equity. Ensure you fully understand the contract specifications and margin requirements. Note: The AI favored SPY based on its price trend, on today's data.
XAU/USD vs SPY: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is better, XAU/USD or SPY?+
On CleaRank's model SPY scores higher, 72/100 (Buy) against 14/100 (Strong Sell) for XAU/USD. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation.
Which has performed better over the past year, XAU/USD or SPY?+
SPY has done better: its price rose 13.01% over the past year, while XAU/USD fell 2.49%.
Which pays more income, XAU/USD or SPY?+
SPY has the higher yield at 0.99%, and XAU/USD has no reported yield. A yield is the payout divided by the price, so it moves whenever either of those moves.
Which is riskier, XAU/USD or SPY?+
Day to day, XAU/USD is the more volatile of the two. Its average daily move is 0.83%, against 0.66% for SPY.
Which has stronger momentum right now, XAU/USD or SPY?+
SPY's 14-day RSI is higher, at 47.3 (neutral), compared with 31.8 (bearish) for XAU/USD. Readings above 70 or below 30 point to stretched momentum.
Which is closer to its 52-week high, XAU/USD or SPY?+
SPY is closer: it trades 2.08% below its 52-week high of $781.62, against 28.20% below $5,595.46 for XAU/USD.
Are XAU/USD and SPY in an uptrend?+
XAU/USD is in a downtrend, trading 3.30% below its 50-day average and 7.37% below its 200-day. SPY is in a mixed trend, trading 0.29% below its 50-day average and 5.22% above its 200-day.