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Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
VS
Comparative Analysis
VTI wins this head-to-head comparison against SPY, primarily driven by its superior valuation and lower expense ratio. While both ETFs track the broad U.S. equity market and exhibit similar technical and sentiment profiles, VTI offers a more cost-effective way to gain exposure. SPY's slightly higher allocation to technology, while potentially offering a growth edge, is outweighed by VTI's overall value proposition for long-term investors. The decision hinges on prioritizing cost efficiency and broad market representation over SPY's marginally different sector weighting.
Key Differentiator
The most significant differentiator between VTI and SPY is the expense ratio. VTI's substantially lower expense ratio of 0.0003, costing $3.00 per $10,000 invested, makes it a more cost-efficient choice for investors compared to SPY's 0.00095 expense ratio, which costs $9.50 per $10,000 invested. This cost advantage directly impacts net returns over the long term, making VTI the superior option for value-conscious investors seeking broad market exposure.
Joint Outlook
The outlook for both VTI and SPY is closely tied to the performance of the broader U.S. equity market, which is currently facing headwinds. Both ETFs are trading below key moving averages, suggesting a bearish short-term trend. A potential scenario involves continued choppiness as inflation and interest rate concerns persist, with both ETFs likely to trade within a range. A more optimistic scenario would see a market recovery driven by strong corporate earnings or a shift in monetary policy, leading to a rebound for both VTI and SPY, with VTI likely to outperform on a net basis due to its lower costs.
Price Analysis Comparison
Asset Metrics
| Metric | VTI | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 52 Week Range | $310.40 - $385.12 | $629.28 - $779.37 |
| Prev. Close | $376.31 | $764.29 |
| Market Cap | 725.71B | 656.00B |
| 24h Volume | 3.04M | 43.94M |
VTI presents a more attractive valuation profile compared to SPY, largely due to its significantly lower expense ratio. VTI charges an expense ratio of 0.0003, translating to a cost of $3.00 per $10,000 invested annually. In contrast, SPY has a higher expense ratio of 0.00095, costing $9.50 per $10,000 invested. This cost difference directly impacts net returns over time. While both ETFs offer broad market exposure, VTI's lower fees make it the more efficient vehicle from a cost-of-ownership perspective, a key component of long-term investment valuation.
Market Performance
| Metric | VTI | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility (30D) | 11.95% | 11.47% |
| 24h Range | $373.28 - $376.06 | $757.93 - $763.52 |
| Market Strength (RSI) | 45.6 | 47.6 |
| Trend (SMA 50) | Bullish | Bullish |
Both assets exhibit similar volatility levels (~12%). Market momentum is currently Bullish for both.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | VTI | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.60 | 47.58 |
| 50-Day MA | $374.60 | $758.94 |
| 200-Day MA | $352.56 | $714.69 |
Both VTI and SPY are currently exhibiting similar technical weakness, trading below their 20-day exponential moving averages. VTI's 20-day EMA is $377.00, and its current price is $374.68, while SPY's 20-day EMA is $764.62, with its price at $760.88. Both ETFs also show similar readings on their Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Stochastic Oscillator, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD for SPY (0.63) is slightly more positive than VTI (0.03), suggesting a marginal edge in short-term momentum for SPY, but both are in a downtrend based on their positions relative to their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
AI Analyst Sentiment
Technical rating: based on current price action versus moving averages and momentum. This measures short-term chart trend, not analyst opinion or company fundamentals.
VTI
Technical Score: 75/100
SPY
Technical Score: 75/100
Sentiment for both VTI and SPY is neutral to slightly bearish, as indicated by their technical indicators. Both ETFs have readings on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 (VTI at 45.6, SPY at 47.58), suggesting a lack of buying pressure. The CCI for both is significantly negative (VTI at -105.58, SPY at -104.08), reinforcing the bearish short-term sentiment. As ETFs, they do not have analyst ratings or median price targets, so sentiment is inferred solely from price action and technical indicators.
Risk Stratification
| Metric | VTI | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.69 | 0.69 |
The primary risk for both VTI and SPY is a broad market downturn driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rate hikes, or geopolitical instability. As passive index funds, they are fully exposed to the systematic risk of the U.S. equity market. VTI's slightly higher concentration in technology (35.06% vs. SPY's 38.69%) could expose it to greater volatility if the tech sector experiences a significant correction. Conversely, SPY's higher expense ratio presents a persistent drag on returns, representing a quantifiable risk to long-term performance.
Comparative ProTips
- Prioritize VTI for its lower expense ratio, which enhances long-term compounding returns.
- Consider SPY if a marginal increase in technology sector exposure is desired, but be mindful of the higher costs.
- Monitor the technical indicators for both ETFs; a sustained move above the 50-day SMA could signal a trend reversal.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
Actionable Trade Plans
Compare entry, exit, and risk management levels for both assets
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
VTI
Current: $374.68
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$355.95
Aggressive
$374.68
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$345.27
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5%
$373.74
+10%
$391.54
+15%
$409.34
SPY
Current: $760.88
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$722.84
Aggressive
$760.88
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$701.15
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
+5%
$758.98
+10%
$795.12
+15%
$831.26
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This comparison involves assets with varying risk profiles. The content is for educational purposes only. Identifying the stronger asset is based on relative strength (RS) and technical convergence. Past correlation does not guarantee future lockstep movement. Trading involves risk of loss. Note: The AI favored VTI based on relative valuation. This is valid for the specified timeframe only.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which ETF is a better buy, VTI or SPY?+
VTI is a better buy due to its significantly lower expense ratio ($3.00 per $10,000 invested vs. $9.50 for SPY), making it more cost-efficient for long-term investors seeking broad U.S. equity market exposure.
What are the key risks for VTI compared to SPY?+
Both ETFs face systematic market risk. VTI's slightly lower tech concentration might offer marginal protection in a tech downturn, while SPY's higher expense ratio is a persistent risk to net returns.
How do the expense ratios of VTI and SPY compare?+
VTI has a much lower expense ratio of 0.0003, costing $3.00 per $10,000 invested annually. SPY's expense ratio is 0.00095, costing $9.50 per $10,000 invested annually.
What is the dividend yield for VTI and SPY?+
VTI offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.04%, while SPY offers a yield of approximately 0.99%. VTI provides a slightly higher income stream.
How do VTI and SPY compare in terms of sector exposure?+
Both ETFs are heavily weighted in technology. VTI has 35.06% in tech, while SPY has 38.69%. Their sector allocations are broadly similar, reflecting the overall U.S. equity market.
What are the trailing returns for VTI and SPY?+
Over the 10-year period, VTI returned 14.81% while SPY returned 15.27%. However, VTI has outperformed SPY over the 3-year (20.65% vs 20.91%) and 5-year (11.71% vs 12.69%) periods, indicating competitive performance despite differing expense ratios.
How do the net assets of VTI and SPY compare?+
VTI has significantly larger net assets of $2.34 trillion compared to SPY's $811.94 billion, indicating greater investor adoption and liquidity for VTI.