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As of September 10, 2026, Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) trades at $285.45. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $294.22, 3.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $337.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 26 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $294.22.
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)
Union Pacific Corp. NYSE
$285.45
0.7100 (0.25%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) is currently trading at $284.74, below its 50-day moving average of $294.22 but above its 200-day moving average of $260.93, indicating a mixed technical picture. The company has demonstrated consistent earnings beats over the last four reported quarters, with the most recent quarter exceeding estimates by 5.25%. Analysts maintain a generally positive outlook, with a median price target of $337.00, suggesting an 18.4% upside potential from current levels. The railroad giant's operations are critical to North American commerce, and its extensive network provides a durable competitive advantage. Despite the positive fundamental and analyst sentiment, the stock's RSI is in oversold territory at 26.42, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, insider transactions show a net seller position, with $9.3 million in sales versus no reported purchases, signaling moderate caution from management. The company's revenue growth has been strong, with current year estimates projecting a 9.00% increase year-over-year, though next year's growth is expected to moderate to 4.00%. Investors should monitor the balance sheet and any potential shifts in freight demand.
UNP Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$285.21
Day Range
$284.60 to $288.58
Prev Close
$284.74
Volume
25.7K
52-Week Range
$210.84 to $315.99
Market Cap
$169.16B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-8% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
UNP Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, UNP beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
UNP Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+18.06% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$337.00
AI Technical Analysis
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of $294.22, which now acts as resistance, but remains above its 200-day moving average of $260.93, indicating a longer-term uptrend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.42, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -1.45, indicating bearish momentum, but its proximity to zero suggests this trend may be losing steam. The nearest support level is the 200-day SMA at $260.93, while the 50-day SMA at $294.22 and the 20-day EMA at $295.61 represent immediate resistance. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 1.91 million compared to a 2.19 million average, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the recent price action. The oversold RSI coupled with the price action below key short-term moving averages creates a complex picture, with potential for a bounce from oversold levels but facing headwinds from overhead resistance.
ProTips
- Monitor Union Pacific's (UNP) ability to break above its 50-day moving average resistance around $294.22, as a sustained move higher could signal a trend reversal.
- The current oversold RSI (26.42) suggests potential for a short-term bounce, but investors should be cautious given the moderate insider selling trend.
- Consider the projected slowdown in revenue growth for next year (4.00%) when assessing long-term entry points, and compare UNP's valuation against its sector peers.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Performance Continues
Union Pacific (UNP) has consistently beaten EPS estimates, most recently by 5.25% in Q3 2026, indicating operational resilience and effective management.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Analyst Price Targets Indicate Significant Upside
The median analyst price target for UNP is $337.00, representing an 18.4% upside from the current price, suggesting Wall Street sees considerable value.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold $9.3 million worth of UNP stock with no reported purchases, signaling a degree of caution from management regarding the near-term stock performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Oversold RSI Suggests Potential Rebound
The stock's RSI is at 26.42, indicating it is in oversold territory, which historically can precede a short-term price bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) is expected to maintain its operational strength and benefit from its essential role in North American logistics over the next 6-12 months. The median analyst target price of $337.00 suggests a potential upside of 18.4% from the current price, driven by continued earnings performance and potential recovery from oversold technical levels. The company's revenue growth is projected to remain solid in the current year, providing a stable foundation for its stock. However, the outlook is tempered by the stock trading below its 50-day moving average and moderate insider selling, which could signal caution among management. A significant catalyst for upside would be a sustained break above the $295 resistance level, supported by improving volume and positive insider sentiment. Conversely, a failure to rebound from oversold conditions or a significant downturn in freight demand could lead to a test of the 200-day moving average support at $260.93.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 169.16B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.36 |
| EPS (TTM) | 12.19 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% |
| 52 Week High | 315.99 |
| 52 Week Low | 210.84 |
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) trades at a P/E ratio of 23.36, which is above the sector average P/E of 25.5, suggesting it is trading at a slight discount relative to its peers. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $12.19 are strong, and it has consistently beaten analyst estimates in recent quarters. Revenue growth is projected at 9.00% for the current year, indicating solid top-line expansion, although next year's growth is expected to slow to 4.00%. The company's balance sheet appears healthy, with a dividend yield of approximately 1.95%. The consistent earnings performance and positive analyst sentiment suggest underlying financial stability. The current valuation, while not excessively high compared to sector averages, warrants attention given the moderating growth outlook for next year.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) has demonstrated a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations, beating analyst estimates in three of the last four reported quarters. The most recent quarter, ending July 23, 2026, saw EPS of $3.41 against an estimate of $3.24, a positive surprise of 5.25%, which contributed to a 0.98% stock price increase. Prior to this, the quarter ending May 26, 2026, delivered a significant EPS beat of 34.19%, driving a 3.06% stock price gain. While the company has shown consistent earnings power, the forward revenue growth estimates suggest a moderation in the pace of expansion.
Key Risks
Union Pacific faces risks related to its valuation, which, while not excessively high compared to sector averages, is above its 50-day moving average and shows moderate insider selling. The company's stock is currently trading in oversold territory (RSI 26.42), indicating potential for short-term volatility and a possible pullback if the oversold condition does not lead to a sustained rally. Also, the projected slowdown in revenue growth for next year warrants close monitoring of operational efficiency and demand trends.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 26.42 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.45 |
| SMA 50 | 294.22 |
| SMA 200 | 260.93 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($294.22) above the 200-day SMA ($260.93), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 26.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.41
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
UNP Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$282.60
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$285.45
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$273.27
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (26.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$291.07
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$296.73
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$305.20
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for UNP is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in UNP in September 2016 would be worth about $30,353 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in UNP today could grow to about $24,676 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $68,892 and a bear case around $8,839. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
UNP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $410 for UNP by 2030 in the base case, from $285 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $214. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on UNP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $226 | $312 | $432 |
| 2028 | $216 | $342 | $541 |
| 2029 | $213 | $374 | $657 |
| 2030 | $214 | $410 | $784 |
| 2031 | $217 | $448 | $927 |
| 2032 | $222 | $491 | $1,087 |
| 2033 | $228 | $537 | $1,268 |
| 2034 | $235 | $588 | $1,473 |
| 2035 | $243 | $644 | $1,704 |
| 2036 | $252 | $704 | $1,967 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using UNP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
UNP Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$9.3M
4 Transactions
Insiders
8
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | ROCKER KENYATTA G.
Officer
|
Sell | 27.4K | $7.4M |
| Mar 20, 2018 | KNIGHT ROBERT M JR
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $3.4M |
| Sep 24, 2018 | KNIGHT ROBERT M JR
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 20.0K | $3.3M |
| Dec 9, 2016 | BUTLER ERIC L
Officer
|
Sell | 23.2K | $2.4M |
| Feb 22, 2021 | WHITED ELIZABETH F.
Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $2.1M |
| Apr 3, 2018 | WHITED ELIZABETH F.
Officer
|
Sell | 15.6K | $2.1M |
| Apr 18, 2019 | FERGUSON RHONDA S.
Officer
|
Sell | 11.5K | $2.0M |
| Aug 23, 2023 | ROCKER KENYATTA G.
Officer
|
Sell | 8.7K | $1.9M |
| Jul 7, 2017 | SCOTT CAMERON A
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 17.6K | $1.9M |
| Jan 24, 2025 | WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
|
Sell | 7.5K | $1.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) stock a buy right now?
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) is currently rated as 'Hold' by our AI, with a consensus score of 55. While analysts have a 'Buy' rating and a median price target of $337.00, suggesting an 18.4% upside, the stock is trading below its 50-day moving average and exhibits moderate insider selling, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile.
What is Union Pacific Corp.'s (UNP) fair value?
Our fair value estimate for Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) is $294.22, implying a modest 3.3% upside from its current price of $284.74. This valuation is supported by its strong earnings history and sector positioning, though it is slightly above the current trading price.
What is Union Pacific Corp.'s (UNP) dividend yield?
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.95%, with a dividend rate of $5.56. This provides a steady income stream for investors, aligning with the 'dividend_and_income' theme.
What are the biggest risks for Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)?
Key risks for Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) include its current valuation, which is trading below its 50-day moving average, and moderate insider selling activity. The stock's oversold RSI at 26.4 also suggests potential for short-term volatility.
What is Union Pacific Corp.'s (UNP) revenue growth forecast?
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) is projected to achieve 9.00% revenue growth for the current year, with an estimated $26.8 billion in sales. However, growth is expected to moderate to approximately 4.00% for the next year.
How does Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) compare to its sector averages?
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) trades at a P/E ratio of 23.36, which is slightly below the sector average of 25.5. Its revenue growth projection of 9.00% for the current year is in line with the sector average of 10.00%.
What is Union Pacific Corp.'s (UNP) stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Union Pacific Corp.'s (UNP) stock forecast for 2030 shows a base case price of $408.66, with a downside projection of $213.48 and an upside projection of $782.29. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not definitive price targets.