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As of September 27, 2026, First Solar Inc. (FSLR) trades at $177.71. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $177.71, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $270.00 across 36 analysts. RSI at 36 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $210.84.
First Solar Inc. (FSLR)
First Solar Inc. NASDAQ
$177.71
5.550 (3.22%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) is currently trading at $177.71, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.84 and $226.37), signaling a bearish technical trend. The company's recent earnings have shown mixed performance, with a beat in the quarter to June 2026 but a negative revenue growth of -3.7% year-over-year for the current year. Despite these challenges, Wall Street analysts maintain a largely positive outlook, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a median price target of $270.00, suggesting a potential 51.9% upside. However, significant insider selling, totaling $53.3 million in dispositions with no reported purchases, presents a major red flag. This heavy net selling activity, categorized as a heavy insider selling, indicates a lack of confidence from management and could pressure the stock further, overriding the analyst optimism.
FSLR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$174.09
Day Range
$173.44 to $180.92
Prev Close
$172.16
Volume
3.15M
52-Week Range
$170.80 to $320.95
Market Cap
$19.10B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-68%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
FSLR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, FSLR beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
FSLR Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.84 and $226.37), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.23, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is negative at -8.20. The stock is also trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The current price action suggests downward pressure. Volume was 17.5% above average on the latest trading day, indicating increased activity in the current trend.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy selling trend is a significant bearish signal that overrides analyst optimism.
- Watch for a sustained break above the 50-day SMA ($210.84) and 200-day SMA ($226.37) as a potential indicator of a trend reversal.
- Given the bearish technicals and insider selling, consider risk management strategies such as setting tighter stop-loss orders, especially if daily volatility exceeds 5%.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $53 Million
Insiders have sold over $53.3 million worth of First Solar stock with no reported purchases, indicating a strong heavy insider selling and potential lack of confidence.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Bearish Technical Setup Confirmed
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.84 and $226.37), with bearish RSI and MACD indicators, suggesting continued downward price pressure.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Projected Negative Revenue Growth
Current year revenue is estimated to decline by 4.00%, contrasting with sector growth and potentially impacting future profitability.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Consensus and Price Targets
Despite headwinds, 36 analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $270.00, suggesting significant upside potential if the company's fundamentals improve.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBullish
Strong Profit Margins and Low Debt
First Solar boasts a 32.47% profit margin and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, providing a solid financial foundation.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
The base case for First Solar Inc. (FSLR) over the next 6-12 months is challenging, given the current bearish technical trend and substantial insider selling. While Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $270.00, implying a 51.9% upside from the current $177.71 price, the heavy net selling by insiders suggests internal concerns that could weigh on the stock. The company's strong profit margins and below-sector-median P/S ratio offer some fundamental support, but projected negative revenue growth for the current year is a concern. Potential catalysts for a bullish reversal would require a significant shift in insider sentiment, a clear break above key technical resistance levels (50-day SMA at $210.84 and 200-day SMA at $226.37), and evidence of renewed revenue growth. Conversely, continued selling pressure, broader market weakness, or increased competition could push the stock lower, potentially testing its long-range downside projection of $76.14.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 19.10B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.95 |
| EPS (TTM) | 16.22 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 320.95 |
| 52 Week Low | 170.80 |
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) exhibits a strong profit margin of 32.47% and an operating margin of 42.64%, with a healthy return on equity of 18.51%. Its debt-to-equity ratio is a very low 0.02, indicating a strong balance sheet. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.55, which is below the sector median of 7.5, suggesting it may be undervalued on a sales basis relative to peers. However, current year revenue growth is projected to be negative at -4.00%, contrasting with a sector median revenue growth of 24.1%.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) reported a strong earnings surprise of 36.11% for the quarter to June 2026, with actual EPS of $3.92 against an estimate of $2.88, leading to a 2.44% price increase. However, the revenue for the current quarter is estimated to decline by 20.00% year-over-year. While recent earnings have shown positive beats, the projected revenue contraction and a history of mixed performance warrant caution.
Key Risks
The primary risk for First Solar Inc. (FSLR) stems from significant insider selling, with over $53 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, signaling potential internal concerns. Technically, the stock is in a bearish trend, trading below key moving averages with bearish momentum indicators. Additionally, projected negative revenue growth for the current year poses a challenge to its fundamental outlook, despite a strong profit margin.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 36.23 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -8.20 |
| SMA 50 | 210.84 |
| SMA 200 | 226.37 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $210.84, 200-day: $226.37), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with FSLR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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FSLR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$181.26
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$177.71
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$193.95
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (36.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$172.20
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$163.14
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$154.07
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
FSLR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.22%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FSLR in September 2016 would be worth about $45,462 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FSLR today could grow to about $29,592 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $224,507 and a bear case around $3,901. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FSLR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $274 for FSLR by 2030 in the base case, from $178 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $76.14. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FSLR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $104 | $198 | $376 |
| 2028 | $89.20 | $221 | $546 |
| 2029 | $81.10 | $246 | $747 |
| 2030 | $76.14 | $274 | $988 |
| 2031 | $72.95 | $306 | $1,281 |
| 2032 | $70.91 | $341 | $1,637 |
| 2033 | $69.70 | $380 | $2,069 |
| 2034 | $69.11 | $423 | $2,593 |
| 2035 | $69.01 | $472 | $3,226 |
| 2036 | $69.32 | $526 | $3,990 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using FSLR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. FSLR is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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FSLR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$53.3M
78 Transactions
Insiders
21
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$683.1K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2020 | WALTON LUKAS T
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.6M | $592.5M |
| Oct 30, 2020 | WALTON LUKAS T
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.5M | $200.0M |
| Jun 3, 2024 | WIDMAR MARK R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 36.7K | $10.0M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | ANTOUN GEORGES J
Officer
|
Sell | 37.4K | $9.9M |
| Jun 6, 2023 | WIDMAR MARK R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 39.9K | $8.0M |
| Aug 10, 2020 | WIDMAR MARK R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 79.9K | $5.9M |
| Mar 3, 2023 | WIDMAR MARK R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 26.6K | $5.5M |
| Aug 13, 2025 | WIDMAR MARK R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 27.7K | $5.1M |
| May 3, 2021 | WIDMAR MARK R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 64.5K | $4.9M |
| May 30, 2024 | BRADLEY ALEXANDER R.
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 16.1K | $4.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is First Solar's (FSLR) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, First Solar's (FSLR) stock price is projected to be $274.27 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside projection of $76.14 and an upside projection of $988.04. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is First Solar (FSLR) stock a buy right now?
First Solar (FSLR) is currently rated 'Sell' by our AI consensus score of 21, primarily due to heavy insider selling and bearish technicals. Wall Street analysts, however, have a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $270.00, suggesting significant upside.
What are the key technical indicators for First Solar (FSLR)?
First Solar (FSLR) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.84 and $226.37), with a bearish RSI at 36.2 and a negative MACD. This indicates bearish momentum and a downtrend in the stock's price action.
How does First Solar's (FSLR) valuation compare to its sector peers?
First Solar (FSLR) has a price-to-sales ratio of 3.55, which is below the sector median of 7.5. However, its projected revenue growth for the current year is negative (-4.00%), contrasting with the sector's median growth of 24.1%.
What is the recent earnings performance of First Solar (FSLR)?
First Solar (FSLR) reported a strong EPS beat of 36.11% for the quarter to June 2026. However, revenue estimates for the current quarter show a year-over-year decline of 20.00%.
Are there any significant insider transactions for First Solar (FSLR)?
Yes, insiders have been heavy net sellers of First Solar (FSLR) stock, with over $53.3 million in sales and no reported purchases. This heavy insider selling is a significant bearish indicator.
What is the outlook for First Solar (FSLR) over the next 12 months?
The outlook for First Solar (FSLR) is cautious, with a bearish technical setup and significant insider selling. While analysts see upside to a median target of $270.00, the current trend and insider activity suggest potential for further downside before any recovery.