Stock·NYSE·Basic Materials
MP Materials Corp. (MP)
- Market cap
- $7.15B
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- Street target
- $73.00median of 19 analysts
- 52-week range
- $37.81 $84.15
The short version
Where MP stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
MP at a glance
MP Materials Corp. (MP): Sell, 38/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($51.18 and $56.27).
- Earnings MP beat estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, and the stock rose the next day every time.
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates MP Materials Corp. (MP) Sell, with a model score of 38/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 18 of 19 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 81.7% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 28.62% below its 200-day average and 21.51% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 9.06% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $51.18 and the 200-day at $56.27. Over the past year the price fell 52.09%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MP's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $40.17 is 21.5% below the 50-day simple moving average of $51.18.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 28.6% below the 200-day simple moving average of $56.27.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($51.18) is 9.1% below the 200-day average ($56.27), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 5% of its 52-week range, between $37.81 and $84.15.
MP share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far MP has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where MP sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/3P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 17.09 is 307.0% above the sector median of 4.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $-60.6M on revenue of $416.2M, a net margin of -14.6%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
MP beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 4 reports.
Key statistics
The headline figures for MP.
As of October 16, 2026, MP trades at $40.17, with a market value of $7.15B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of MP's valuation, growth and risks.
MP Materials Corp. (MP) has no meaningful P/E, not meaningful, because the company lost money over the last 12 months. On sales, the P/S of 17.09 compares with a sector median of 4.2, 306.9% above it. For scale, MP carries a market value of $7.2B.
MP is loss-making. Its net margin is -14.56% and its operating margin -14.72%, and its return on equity of -3.59% is below the sector median of 17.9%. Revenue grew 119.70% in the latest year, which is 100.7 percentage points faster than the sector median of 19.0%. Debt-to-equity stands at 0.41.
The November 6, 2025 report was the most recent available report in our data, and EPS of -$0.1 a share came in above the -$0.16 estimate, a beat of 37.50%. In the first session after the report, the share price climbed 12.80%.
The earnings record shows 3 beats in 4 reports, and the stock rose in the first session after each of those beats. The May 8, 2025 report stands out among the earlier ones: a miss of 0.00%, after which the stock fell 7.97%. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $0.01189 this fiscal year and $0.798 the year after (growth of 6,611.9%).
Normal swings for MP run at about 3.16% a day. The downtrend is itself a risk for as long as the price stays under both moving averages. The price is 52.26% below its 52-week high of $84.15.
MP against the Basic Materials sector
How MP compares with the median Basic Materials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to sales vs sector: On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, MP trades at 17.09x, far above the sector average of 4.20x.
Return vs XLB: Since May 5, 2025, MP has gained 65.1% against a gain of 20.0% for XLB.
Performance against XLB
MP and the Basic Materials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much MP sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 10.1% in FY2025 to $224M, from $204M a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was -38.3% in FY2025, down from -32.1% the year before.
Profitable: MP lost $85.9M in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did MP beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: MP beat the analyst estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock rose in the first session after every beat.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025after close | -$0.16 | -$0.10 | +37.50% | +12.80% | +10.76% |
| Aug 7, 2025after close | -$0.20 | -$0.13 | +35.00% | +4.57% | +7.75% |
| May 8, 2025after close | -$0.12 | -$0.12 | +0.00% | -7.97% | -10.61% |
| Feb 20, 2025after close | -$0.13 | -$0.12 | +7.69% | +4.83% | +1.21% |
Reports after November 6, 2025 are not yet in our data.
As of October 16, 2026, MP has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters and rose in the first trading session after every one of those beats; its most recent report in our data, on November 6, 2025, came in 37.50% above the estimate and the stock moved +12.80% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 32.2, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 32.2 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of MP
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
MP Materials Corp. (MP) shows a downtrend: both the 50-day and 200-day averages sit above the price. The price of $40.17 trades 21.51% below its 50-day average of $51.18 and 28.62% below its 200-day average of $56.27. Sitting at 5% of its 52-week range, the stock is 6.24% above the 52-week low of $37.81. The 50-day average is 9.06% below the 200-day average, a pattern that backs up the weakness instead of cutting against it.
On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 32.2, in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, with the MACD line negative. Every period on the chart shows a loss, with the price down 11.21% over the past three months, 34.14% over the past six months and 52.09% over the past year.
Earnings beat ›
The November 6, 2025 report beat the EPS estimate by 37.50%, and the share price rose 12.80% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, November 6, 2025Rating reaffirmed ›
Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating on October 7, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Morgan Stanley, October 7, 2026
New analyst coverage ›
Freedom Broker started coverage at Hold on September 16, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Freedom Broker, September 16, 2026
- Two levels deserve the most attention: the 20-day EMA at $45.55, which sits above the price, and the 52-week low at $37.81, which sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 32.2, which places it in the bearish zone, and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 signal stretched momentum.
- The share price rose 12.80% in the first session after the November 6, 2025 report. Across the last 4 reports, MP has beaten estimates in 3.
MP stays in a downtrend while it trades below both its 50-day average of $51.18 and its 200-day average of $56.27. A close back above the 50-day average would be the first sign of repair. Overhead, the 20-day EMA at $45.55 is the first barrier.
Below the price, the next level to watch is the 52-week low at $37.81. With the RSI in the bearish zone, momentum leans against a quick recovery.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for MP, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with MP at $40.17, its 14-day RSI is 32.2 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $51.18 and its 200-day is $56.27.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What MP moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, MP's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.29 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.32 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.33 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.23 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
18 of 19 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $73.00 is 81.7% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
18 of 19 rate it a buy now, against 18 of 18 three months ago.
MP Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $40.17, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Freedom Broker | Initiates | Hold |
| Aug 24, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy |
| Jul 29, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy |
As of October 16, 2026, 19 Wall Street analysts cover MP: 18 rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $53.00 to $100.00, with a median of $73.00, 81.7% above the price of $40.17.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
MP trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
MP moves about 3.2% a day on average, so a stop can fill well past its level. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much MP tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
MP's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
2/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 3.16% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 81.2%, from April 2022 to August 2024, regained by July 2025.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
51% of 1-year holding periods in the last 6 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in June 2020 is now worth $41,610, against $27,040 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
MP Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 16, 2026, MP's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 6 years with dividends reinvested was -81.2% (April 2022 to August 2024); it regained that peak by July 2025, 11 months after the low, and 51% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into MP in June 2020 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: MP beat the S&P 500 over this period: $41,610 against $27,040.
A $10,000 investment in MP in June 2020 would be worth about $41,610 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $27,040 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to MP, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +20.52%, up in 4 of 6 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -5.59%, up in 2 of 6 years.
This month, October: has averaged -3.78%, up in 2 of 6 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 7 years, MP's strongest calendar month has been November (average +20.52%, up in 4 of 6 years) and its weakest March (average -5.59%, up in 2 of 6 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 7 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in MP, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MP today could grow to about $28,235 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $214,209 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $3,722. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $60.84 for MP by 2030 in the base case, from $40.17 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $16.89. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $23.48 | $44.56 | $84.58 | |
| 2028 | $19.98 | $49.44 | $122 | |
| 2029 | $18.08 | $54.85 | $166 | |
| 2030 | $16.89 | $60.84 | $219 | |
| 2031 | $16.11 | $67.50 | $283 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of MP's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. MP is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation.
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.