TradeTrade
Jump to any asset 850 assets, updated daily

As of September 11, 2026, MP Materials Corp. (MP) trades at $51.32. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $75.00, 46.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $75.00 across 18 analysts. RSI at 42 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $51.31.

MP Materials Corp. (MP)

MP Materials Corp. NYSE

$51.32 -2.980 (-5.49%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
Buy
79 / 100
Last updated: (1h 57m ago) • Price at analysis: $51.32
CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by CleaRank editorial team. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
MP Materials Corp. (MP) is currently trading at $51.32, slightly above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average, indicating a mixed short-term trend. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates showing a 99.00% increase year-over-year, projected to reach $447.4 million. This growth is underpinned by the increasing demand for rare earth elements essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. Wall Street analysts maintain a strong conviction, with 18 analysts covering the stock, resulting in a consensus rating of Buy and a median price target of $75.00, suggesting an upside potential of 46.1%. Despite a negative EPS of -0.33, the company's forward revenue estimates and strategic position in a critical sector are key drivers for its outlook.

MP Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Open
$53.33
Day Range
$51.12 to $53.73
Prev Close
$54.30
Volume
6.85M
52-Week Range
$37.81 to $100.25
Market Cap
$9.14B

Peer Benchmarking

Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)

Performance vs XLB

Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+2,451%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.

MP Analysis

Company's Health 4/5
12-Month Analyst Target +46.14% Upside
Median of 18 analysts (12-month)
$75.00
AI Technical Analysis Buy
MP Materials Corp. exhibits a neutral momentum according to its RSI of 42.36, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $51.31, suggesting some near-term support, but remains below its 200-day SMA of $57.56, pointing to a longer-term downtrend. MACD is currently at 0.417, suggesting a slight bullish bias but lacking strong momentum. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 6.85 million, 45% above the average of 4.73 million, which could signal increasing investor interest or a potential shift in trend if sustained.
ProTips
  • MP Materials Corp.'s strong revenue growth is a positive sign, but investors should closely monitor its path to profitability and its ability to manage costs effectively.
  • The stock's current position below its 200-day moving average suggests caution for short-term traders, while the strong analyst consensus and upside potential may appeal to long-term investors.
  • Given the cyclical nature of the materials sector and the strategic importance of rare earth elements, staying informed on global demand trends and geopolitical factors impacting supply chains is essential for managing risk.
Key Catalysts
Bullish Strong Revenue Growth Projections

Current year revenue is projected to grow 99.00% to $447.4 million, with next year's growth estimated at 80.00%, indicating significant market demand for MP Materials' products.

Source: Wall Street Estimates
Bullish Positive Wall Street Consensus and Price Target

With 18 analysts rating MP Materials a Buy and a median price target of $75.00, there is strong institutional conviction in the stock's potential upside.

Source: Wall Street Summary
Bullish Strategic Importance in Rare Earths Market

MP Materials is a key producer of rare earth elements in North America, essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy, positioning it to benefit from global decarbonization trends.

Source: Company Profile
Bearish Negative Earnings Per Share (EPS)

The company currently reports a negative EPS of -0.33, indicating a lack of profitability which could deter investors focused on near-term earnings.

Source: Company Financials
Bearish Below 200-Day Moving Average

Trading below its 200-day SMA of $57.56 suggests a longer-term downtrend, which may continue if fundamental improvements do not materialize.

Source: Technical Analysis
Market Outlook
MP Materials Corp. is expected to see significant revenue growth over the next 1-2 years, driven by increasing demand for rare earth elements critical to the energy transition. The company's strategic position as a primary producer in North America positions it favorably to capture market share. The median analyst price target of $75.00 suggests a bullish outlook, implying that the market anticipates a turnaround in profitability. The company's ability to convert its strong revenue growth into positive earnings will be a key determinant of its future stock performance. Potential catalysts include securing new long-term supply agreements, successful scaling of production capacity, and favorable geopolitical developments impacting rare earth supply chains. Conversely, a slowdown in EV adoption, increased competition from international producers, or failure to achieve profitability could negatively impact the stock. The company's long-range projection indicates a potential base price of $92.13 by 2030, underscoring the long-term growth narrative.

Key Statistics

Market Cap 9.14B
P/E Ratio N/A (Negative EPS)
EPS (TTM) -0.3300
Dividend Yield 0.00%
52 Week High 100.25
52 Week Low 37.81
MP Materials Corp. currently has a negative EPS of -0.33, making its P/E ratio mathematically negative and thus not comparable to sector averages. However, the company's revenue growth is exceptional, projected at 99.00% for the current year, far exceeding the sector median of 19.00%. This strong top-line expansion, coupled with a median price target of $75.00 from Wall Street analysts, suggests that the market is pricing in future profitability and growth potential. The company's strategic position in the rare earth magnet market is a key fundamental driver, although the current lack of profitability remains a point of caution.

Earnings & Growth Analysis

MP Materials Corp. reported mixed recent earnings. The most recent quarter ending July 22, 2026, showed an EPS of $0.07, matching estimates with no surprise and a price change of -2.25%. The prior quarter ending May 5, 2026, saw a positive surprise of 14.58% with an EPS of $3.30 against an estimate of $2.88, leading to a price increase of 6.74%. Prior to that, the quarter ending April 23, 2026, had a slight beat of 3.23% with an EPS of $0.96, but the stock declined 4.09%. This pattern indicates volatility in earnings performance and market reaction, highlighting the importance of future profitability.

Key Risks

MP Materials Corp. faces significant risks including its current negative EPS, which indicates a lack of profitability despite strong revenue growth. The stock's position below its 200-day moving average suggests a longer-term bearish trend that could persist if profitability does not materialize. Also, the company operates in a highly cyclical industry, making it susceptible to fluctuations in commodity prices and global demand for rare earth elements.

Technical Indicators i

RSI (14) 42.36
MACD 0.42
SMA 50 51.31
SMA 200 57.56
Technical Rating Neutral
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $51.31, 200-day: $57.56), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.

Market Correlations

How this stock moves relative to other assets

Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.

S&P 500 (SPY) +0.31
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.33
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC) +0.27
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU) +0.22
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation

MP Trade Plans

Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels

Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative 2% Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →

🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)

CONSERVATIVE
$50.29
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$51.32
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry

Risk Management

STOP LOSS
$46.45
MAX LOSS
-7.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (42.4) and current market volatility

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

TARGET 1
$52.81
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$55.32
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$57.84
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Position Size Stop Loss Risk/Reward P&L Calculator Trailing Stop Fibonacci Pivot Points Win Rate Expectancy
⚠️ High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
MP is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.99%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.

Growth of $10,000

A $10,000 investment in MP in June 2020 would be worth about $51,320 today, compared with about $24,397 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.

Compare with Another Ticker

Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MP today could grow to about $43,183 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $327,611 and a bear case around $5,692. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

MP Stock Price Prediction: 2030

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $92.13 for MP by 2030 in the base case, from $51.32 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $25.58. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.

MP simulated price paths by year
Year Downside (10th pct) Base case Upside (90th pct)
2027 $31.30 $59.40 $113
2028 $27.78 $68.76 $170
2029 $26.23 $79.59 $241
2030 $25.58 $92.13 $332
2031 $25.45 $107 $447
2032 $25.69 $123 $593
2033 $26.22 $143 $779
2034 $27.00 $165 $1,013
2035 $28.00 $191 $1,309
2036 $29.21 $222 $1,681

Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. MP is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.

People Also Watch

Frequently Asked Questions

What is MP Materials Corp.'s stock forecast for 2030?
MP Materials Corp.'s stock forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base price of $92.13, with a downside price of $25.58 and an upside price of $331.9. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is MP Materials Corp. stock a buy right now?
MP Materials Corp. is rated a Buy by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $75.00, suggesting a 46.1% upside from the current price of $51.32. The company exhibits strong revenue growth, although it currently has negative EPS.
What are the biggest risks facing MP Materials Corp.?
The primary risks for MP Materials Corp. include its current negative earnings per share, its position below the 200-day moving average indicating a longer-term downtrend, and the inherent cyclicality of the rare earth elements market.
How does MP Materials Corp. compare to its sector averages?
MP Materials Corp. significantly outperforms the Basic Materials sector in revenue growth, with current year projections at 99.00% compared to the sector median of 19.00%. However, its P/E ratio of -155.52 (negative due to EPS of $-0.33).
What is MP Materials Corp.'s current technical momentum?
MP Materials Corp. shows neutral technical momentum with an RSI at 42.4. While it trades above its 50-day SMA, it remains below its 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed short-to-medium term trend.
What are the revenue growth expectations for MP Materials Corp.?
Revenue growth expectations for MP Materials Corp. are strong. The current year is projected to see 99.00% growth, with next year estimated at 80.00% growth, reaching approximately $671.1 million.
What is the Wall Street consensus for MP Materials Corp. stock?
The Wall Street consensus for MP Materials Corp. is a strong Buy, with 18 analysts covering the stock. There are no Sell or Hold ratings, and the consensus score is 82 out of 100, with a median price target of $75.00.
Browse all Basic Materials →

Disclaimer: CleaRank.com is a financial data and analytics provider, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial regulatory body. The stock analysis, trade plans, and AI-generated signals presented for MP are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. All trade setups and performance metrics shown are hypothetical, hindsight-based, and simulated. They do not represent actual trades made by CleaRank or its affiliates. Stock prices can be volatile and are subject to market, economic, and company-specific risks. Market data is provided "as-is" and may be delayed by 15 minutes or more. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on September 11, 2026.