Stock·NYSE·Basic Materials
MP Materials Corp (MP)
- Market cap
- $6.67B
- Dividend yield
- None
- Street target
- $68.00median of 19 analysts
- 52-week range
- $37.11 $76.80
MP stock forecast today
Where MP stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
MP at a glance
MP Materials Corp (MP): Sell, 40/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($49.22 and $55.69).
- Earnings MP beat estimates in 4 of the 5 reports in our data, yet fell the next day after 1 of those beats.
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates MP Materials Corp (MP) Sell, with a model score of 40/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 18 of 19 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 81.5% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 32.72% below its 200-day average and 23.88% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 11.62% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $49.22 and the 200-day at $55.69. Over the past year the price fell 47.08%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MP's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
MP stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $37.47 is 23.9% below the 50-day simple moving average of $49.22.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 32.7% below the 200-day simple moving average of $55.69.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($49.22) is 11.6% below the 200-day average ($55.69), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 1% of its 52-week range, between $37.11 and $76.80.
MP share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far MP has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where MP sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
MP fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/3P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 21.85 is 420.3% above the sector median of 4.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was -$60.6M on revenue of $305.4M, a net margin of -19.9%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
MP beat the EPS estimate in 4 of the 5 reports in our data.
Key statistics
The headline figures for MP.
As of October 26, 2026, MP trades at $37.47, with a market value of $6.67B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of MP's valuation, growth and risks.
MP Materials Corp (MP) has no meaningful P/E, because its earnings per share over the last 12 months are negative. For scale, the company's market value is $6.7B.
The company is losing money, with a net margin of -19.9% and an operating margin of -14.72%, and a return on equity of -3.59%, below the sector median of 17.9%. Debt-to-equity of 0.41 rounds out the fundamentals.
In the February 26, 2026 report, EPS came in at $0.09 a share against an estimate of $0.02, a beat of 350.00%. Despite the beat, the share price slipped 1.88% in the first session after the report.
MP beat estimates in 4 of the 5 reports in our data, yet the stock fell in the first session after 1 of those 4 beats. The November 6, 2025 report was the standout of the earlier ones: EPS beat by 37.50%, and the stock rose 12.80% the next session. For the future, analysts forecast EPS of -$0.00 this fiscal year and $0.78 the following year.
MP typically moves about 3.05% a day, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 1.99. For as long as the price stays under both moving averages, the downtrend remains a risk in its own right. The price is 51.21% below the 52-week high of $76.80.
MP against the Basic Materials sector
How MP compares with the median Basic Materials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to sales vs sector: On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, MP trades at 21.85x, far above the sector average of 4.20x.
Return vs XLB: Since May 14, 2025, MP has gained 77.8% against a gain of 20.5% for XLB.
Performance against XLB
MP and the Basic Materials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much MP sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 10.1% in FY2025 to $224M, from $204M a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was -38.3% in FY2025, down from -32.1% the year before.
Loss-making: MP lost $85.9M in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did MP beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: MP beat the analyst estimate in 4 of the 5 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 1 of those 4 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026after close | $0.02 | $0.09 | +350.00% | -1.88% | -2.53% |
| Nov 6, 2025after close | -$0.16 | -$0.10 | +37.50% | +12.80% | +10.76% |
| Aug 7, 2025after close | -$0.20 | -$0.13 | +35.00% | +4.57% | +7.75% |
| May 8, 2025after close | -$0.12 | -$0.12 | +0.00% | -7.97% | -10.61% |
| Feb 20, 2025after close | -$0.13 | -$0.12 | +7.69% | +4.83% | +1.21% |
Reports after February 26, 2026 are not yet in our data.
As of October 26, 2026, MP has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 4 of the 5 reports in our data and fell in the first trading session after 1 of those beats; its most recent report in our data, on February 26, 2026, came in 350.00% above the estimate and the stock moved -1.88% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
MP AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
0/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 28.5, in oversold territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 28.5 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of MP
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
MP Materials Corp (MP) is in a downtrend: both of its moving averages sit above the price. The price of $37.47 is 23.88% below the 50-day average of $49.22 and 32.72% below the 200-day average of $55.69. Sitting at 1% of its 52-week range, the price is 0.97% above the 52-week low of $37.11. The 50-day average is 11.62% below the 200-day, which backs up the weakness instead of cutting against it.
On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 28.5, in oversold territory, with the MACD line negative. The recent returns all show a loss, with the price down 13.12% over the past three months, 42.28% over the past six months and 47.08% over the past year.
Rating reaffirmed ›
Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating on October 7, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Morgan Stanley, October 7, 2026
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The February 26, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 350.00%, and the share price fell 1.88% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, February 26, 2026New analyst coverage ›
Freedom Broker started coverage at Hold on September 16, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Freedom Broker, September 16, 2026
- Two levels matter most right now. Above the price, the 20-day EMA sits at $42.39. Below it, the 52-week low is $37.11.
- The 14-day RSI stands at 28.5, which places it in the oversold zone, and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 point to stretched momentum.
- In the first session after the February 26, 2026 report, the share price fell 1.88%. Across the most recent reports in our data, MP beat estimates in 4 of the last 5.
MP remains in a downtrend while it trades below its 50-day average of $49.22 and its 200-day average of $55.69. A close back above the 50-day would be the first sign of a repair. Overhead, the 20-day EMA at $42.39 is the first barrier.
The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $37.11. The RSI is in oversold territory, so a climb back above the oversold line would be the first sign that selling pressure is easing.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for MP, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with MP at $37.47, its 14-day RSI is 28.5 (oversold territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $49.22 and its 200-day is $55.69.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What MP moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, MP's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.29 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.32 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.34 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.24 with gold (XAU).
MP price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
18 of 19 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $68.00 is 81.5% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
18 of 19 rate it a buy now, against 18 of 18 three months ago.
MP Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $37.47, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Freedom Broker | Initiates | Hold |
| Aug 24, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy |
| Jul 29, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy |
As of October 26, 2026, 19 Wall Street analysts cover MP: 18 rate it a buy or strong buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $53.00 to $100.00. The median MP price target is $68.00, 81.5% above the price of $37.47.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
MP trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
MP trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
MP moves about 3.0% a day on average, so a stop can fill well past its level. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much MP tends to move, against the market and on its own.
MP price history and drawdowns
MP's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 3.05% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 80.9%, from April 2022 to August 2024, regained by July 2025.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
50% of 1-year holding periods in the last 6 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in June 2020 is now worth $37,470, against $26,815 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
MP Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, MP's worst peak-to-trough fall over the period since June 2020 with dividends reinvested was -80.9% (April 2022 to August 2024); it regained that peak by July 2025, 11 months after the low, and 50% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into MP in June 2020 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: MP beat the S&P 500 over this period: $37,470 against $26,815.
A $10,000 investment in MP in June 2020 would be worth about $37,470 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $26,815 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to MP, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +20.52%, up in 4 of 6 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -5.59%, up in 2 of 6 years.
This month, October: has averaged -3.78%, up in 2 of 6 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 7 years, MP's strongest calendar month has been November (average +20.52%, up in 4 of 6 years) and its weakest March (average -5.59%, up in 2 of 6 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 7 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
MP stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in MP, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 6 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in MP today could grow to about $15,013 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $54,084 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $4,168. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MP Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $56.25 for MP by 2030 in the base case, from $37.47 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $15.62. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $21.85 | $41.48 | $78.72 | |
| 2028 | $18.55 | $45.91 | $114 | |
| 2029 | $16.75 | $50.82 | $154 | |
| 2030 | $15.62 | $56.25 | $203 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of MP's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. MP is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. How the simulation works
MP stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.