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As of September 10, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) trades at $138.11. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $138.11, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $123.00 across 21 analysts. RSI at 75 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $122.41.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. NYSE
$138.11
3.780 (2.81%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
52 / 100
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is currently trading at $138.11, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($122.41 and $108.64), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 17.6% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in the agricultural inputs sector. However, significant insider selling, totaling $76.3 million, coupled with a Wall Street consensus rating of 'Hold' and a median price target of $123, suggests potential headwinds and a lack of strong conviction from analysts and management. The company's earnings have been mixed, with a recent EPS miss of -15.08% in August 2026, although prior quarters showed positive surprises. The forward revenue estimates indicate a slowdown, with next year's growth projected at -13.00%. While the stock is trading above key moving averages, the substantial insider selling and the 'Hold' rating from a majority of analysts warrant caution, especially given the current overbought RSI reading of 74.64.
CF Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$137.88
Day Range
$135.71 to $139.50
Prev Close
$134.33
Volume
3.22M
52-Week Range
$75.42 to $141.96
Market Cap
$20.90B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)
Performance vs XLB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-34%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
CF Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CF beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
CF Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-10.94% Downside
Median of 21 analysts (12-month)
$123.00
AI Technical Analysis
Volume behavior for CF Industries has been strong, with the latest volume at 3.22 million, representing a 15.7% increase above its average volume of 2.78 million. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($122.41 and $108.64), as well as its 20-day EMA ($129.38), signaling an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74.64, indicating an overbought condition, which could signal a potential pullback. Key support levels are found at the 50-day SMA of $122.41 and the 200-day SMA of $108.64. Resistance is less clearly defined, but the current price of $138.11 is approaching previous highs. The MACD is positive at 4.45, suggesting bullish momentum, but the overbought RSI combined with heavy insider selling presents a risk of a short-term reversal.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; the recent heavy selling pressure warrants attention.
- Given the overbought RSI reading, consider waiting for a technical pullback before initiating new positions.
- The current dividend yield of 1.52% may appeal to income-focused investors, but the overall 'Hold' consensus and insider selling suggest limited near-term upside potential.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold a total of $76.3 million worth of stock across 73 transactions, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus and Downside Target
The median analyst price target of $123.00 implies a -10.9% downside from the current stock price, with a majority of analysts rating the stock 'Hold'.
Source: Analyst RatingsBearish
Recent EPS Miss
The latest earnings report on August 5, 2026, showed an EPS miss of 15.08%, raising concerns about profitability despite previous positive surprises.
Source: Earnings ReportNeutral
Positive Technical Momentum
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($122.41 and $108.64), supported by strong volume, indicating positive short-to-medium term technical trends.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Strong Revenue Growth
CF Industries has reported strong year-over-year revenue growth of 17.6%, outpacing the sector average and demonstrating strong demand for its products.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for CF Industries over the next 6-12 months is cautious, given the significant insider selling and the 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street analysts, who collectively have a median price target of $123.00, implying a -10.9% downside from the current price. Despite strong recent revenue growth and positive technical indicators like trading above key moving averages, the overbought RSI suggests a potential for a near-term correction. Upside potential could emerge if the company demonstrates sustained earnings beats and manages to reverse the insider selling trend. Conversely, a continued slowdown in revenue growth, as indicated by next year's -13.00% projection, or further negative earnings surprises could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing support levels around the 50-day SMA of $122.41.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 20.90B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.96 |
| EPS (TTM) | 13.48 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.52% |
| 52 Week High | 141.96 |
| 52 Week Low | 75.42 |
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. exhibits a P/E ratio of 9.96, which appears attractive relative to its sector average P/E of 15.0. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $13.48. However, the median analyst price target of $123.00 suggests that the current market price of $138.11 may be overvalued by approximately 10.9% from the Street's perspective. Revenue growth has been a strong point, with a reported 17.6% year-over-year increase. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the significant insider selling raises questions about management's near-term confidence despite the seemingly favorable valuation multiples compared to sector averages.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
CF Industries' most recent earnings report on August 5, 2026, showed an EPS of $4.73, missing the analyst estimate of $5.57 by 15.08%, resulting in a slight 0.02% price change. Prior to this miss, the company had demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings surprises, including a significant 23.89% beat in February 2026. The forward revenue estimates suggest a slowdown, with current year growth projected at 17.00% but next year's growth anticipated to decline by 13.00%.
Key Risks
Significant insider selling, with over $76.3 million in dispositions, presents a primary risk, indicating a potential lack of confidence from management. The stock is currently in overbought territory according to its RSI (74.64), suggesting a potential for a near-term pullback. Also, the median Wall Street price target of $123.00 implies a downside of 10.9% from the current price, indicating that analysts believe the stock is currently overvalued.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 74.64 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 4.45 |
| SMA 50 | 122.41 |
| SMA 200 | 108.64 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($122.41) above the 200-day SMA ($108.64), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 74.6 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.02
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
CF Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$136.73
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$138.11
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$129.85
MAX LOSS
-5.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (74.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$140.83
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$143.57
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$147.67
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for CF is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CF in September 2016 would be worth about $54,140 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CF today could grow to about $31,794 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $160,307 and a bear case around $6,306. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CF Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $219 for CF by 2030 in the base case, from $138 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $78.85. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $92.96 | $155 | $259 |
| 2028 | $84.43 | $174 | $359 |
| 2029 | $80.56 | $195 | $474 |
| 2030 | $78.85 | $219 | $610 |
| 2031 | $78.45 | $246 | $773 |
| 2032 | $78.96 | $276 | $968 |
| 2033 | $80.17 | $310 | $1,201 |
| 2034 | $81.97 | $348 | $1,481 |
| 2035 | $84.29 | $391 | $1,815 |
| 2036 | $87.09 | $439 | $2,214 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CF's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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CF Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$76.3M
28 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2022 | WILL W ANTHONY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 1.3M | $101.4M |
| Mar 2, 2026 | WILL W ANTHONY
Former
|
Sell | 237.4K | $24.4M |
| Feb 24, 2022 | BARNARD DOUGLAS C
General Counsel
|
Sell | 183.5K | $14.4M |
| Aug 24, 2022 | WILL W ANTHONY
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 102.5K | $11.3M |
| Feb 20, 2026 | WILL W ANTHONY
Director
|
Sell | 111.9K | $11.2M |
| Mar 13, 2026 | WILL W ANTHONY
Director
|
Sell | 81.7K | $10.3M |
| Feb 25, 2022 | BOHN CHRISTOPHER D
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 110.7K | $8.8M |
| Dec 22, 2021 | FROST BERT A
Officer
|
Sell | 115.1K | $8.0M |
| Feb 28, 2022 | FROST BERT A
Officer
|
Sell | 97.5K | $7.8M |
| Mar 3, 2026 | WILL W ANTHONY
Director
|
Sell | 64.3K | $7.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. stock a buy right now?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is currently trading at $138.11. While the stock shows positive technical momentum, trading above key moving averages, significant insider selling and a Wall Street consensus rating of 'Hold' with a median price target of $123 suggest caution. The RSI is also in overbought territory.
What is CF Industries' stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, CF Industries' stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $219.36, a downside projection of $78.85, and an upside projection of $610.28. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets.
What is the dividend yield for CF Industries?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.52%, with a dividend rate of $2.10.
How has CF Industries performed in recent earnings reports?
CF Industries recently missed its EPS estimate in August 2026 by 15.08%. However, prior quarters showed positive earnings surprises, indicating a mixed recent performance.
What are the main risks facing CF Industries?
The primary risks for CF Industries include substantial insider selling totaling over $76.3 million, an overbought technical condition indicated by its RSI, and a Wall Street consensus rating of 'Hold' with a median price target suggesting a potential downside.
How does CF Industries compare to its sector averages?
CF Industries' P/E ratio of 9.96 is below the sector average of 15.0, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation. However, its revenue growth of 17.6% is significantly above the sector average of 8.0%.
What is the outlook for CF Industries' revenue growth?
While CF Industries has reported strong year-over-year revenue growth of 17.6%, forward estimates suggest a slowdown. Current year revenue growth is projected at 17.00%, but next year's growth is expected to decline by 13.00%.