Stock·NYSE·Basic Materials
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)
- Market cap
- $18.29B
- P/E
- 8.70
- Dividend yield
- 1.74%
- Street target
- $124.00median of 22 analysts
- 52-week range
- $75.42 $141.96
The short version
Where CF stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
CF at a glance
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF): Buy, 65/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($114.42 and $123.37).
- Earnings CF beat estimates in 5 of its last 7 quarters, yet fell the next day after 3 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $76.3M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 8.7 against 30.2 for the Basic Materials sector: a discount to peers (-71%).
Figures as of October 17, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Buy with a score of 65/100.
The biggest lift comes from valuation, where the P/E of 8.70 is 71.2% below the sector median (a discount to peers) and the P/S of 2.34 is 44.3% below the sector median. Momentum pulls the score down the most, as the MACD line is negative. Trend is mixed: the price is 2.04% below its 50-day average of $123.37 but 5.62% above its 200-day average of $114.42. The stock gained 45.57% over the past year.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from CF's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
3/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $120.85 is 2.0% below the 50-day simple moving average of $123.37.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 5.6% above the 200-day simple moving average of $114.42.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($123.37) is 7.8% above the 200-day average ($114.42), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 68% of its 52-week range, between $75.42 and $141.96.
CF share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far CF has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where CF sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
5/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 8.70 is 71.2% below the Basic Materials median of 30.2.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 2.34 is 44.2% below the sector median of 4.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $2.1B on revenue of $7.7B, a net margin of 27.1%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
CF beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 7 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 1.74%, or $2.10 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for CF.
As of October 17, 2026, CF trades at $120.85, with a market value of $18.29B, a P/E ratio of 8.70 and a dividend yield of 1.74%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of CF's valuation, growth and risks.
On earnings, CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is valued at 8.70 times, against a median of 30.2 for Basic Materials: a discount to peers, with the P/E 71.2% below that median. On sales, the P/S of 2.34 compares with a sector median of 4.2, 44.3% below it.
In the latest year revenue grew 17.60%, 1.4 percentage points slower than the sector median of 19.0%. CF turns sales into profit at a net margin of 27.12% and an operating margin of 49.33%, alongside a return on equity of 29.87%, above the sector median of 17.9%. Debt-to-equity of 0.41 and a trailing dividend yield of 1.74% ($2.10 a share a year) round out the fundamentals.
The August 5, 2026 report missed expectations by 15.08%: EPS of $4.73 against an estimate of $5.57. The market reacted the other way, with the stock rising 0.02% the following session.
CF has beaten the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 7 reports, but the share price still dropped in the first session after 3 of those 5 beats. The November 5, 2025 report is a good example: EPS beat by 5.80%, yet the stock fell 4.23%. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $15.31 for this fiscal year and $11.18 for next year, which is growth of 70.7% for the current year.
On a typical day the price of CF shifts by 1.95%, the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns. Over the last 18 months, insider sales totalled $76.3M with no open-market purchases; planned sales and tax sales on vesting shares make selling a weaker signal than buying.
CF against the Basic Materials sector
How CF compares with the median Basic Materials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: CF trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-71%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs XLB: Since May 6, 2025, CF has gained 47.4% against a gain of 21.7% for XLB.
Performance against XLB
CF and the Basic Materials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much CF sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 19.3% in FY2025 to $7.1B, from $5.9B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 25.4% in FY2025, up from 24.9% the year before.
Profitable: CF earned $1.8B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did CF beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: CF beat the analyst estimate in 5 of the last 7 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 3 of those 5 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026after close | $5.57 | $4.73 | -15.08% | +0.02% | +2.83% |
| May 6, 2026after close | $2.66 | $2.89 | +8.65% | -0.90% | +4.79% |
| Feb 18, 2026after close | $2.47 | $3.06 | +23.89% | +3.80% | +0.33% |
| Nov 5, 2025after close | $2.07 | $2.19 | +5.80% | -4.23% | -0.35% |
| Aug 6, 2025after close | $2.47 | $2.39 | -3.24% | -7.80% | -3.87% |
| May 7, 2025after close | $1.50 | $1.98 | +32.00% | +0.78% | +6.54% |
| Feb 19, 2025after close | $1.51 | $1.79 | +18.54% | -4.24% | -7.19% |
As of October 17, 2026, CF has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 5 of its last 7 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 3 of those beats; its latest report, on August 5, 2026, came in 15.08% below the estimate and the stock moved +0.02% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
2/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 52.5, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 52.5 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of CF
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is trading at $120.85, caught between its two moving averages. The price sits 5.62% above the 200-day average of $114.42, yet 2.04% below the 50-day average of $123.37. That 50-day average is 7.83% above the 200-day one. Within the 52-week range, which stretches from $75.42 to $141.96, the price stands at 68% of the way up.
The recent pullback is set against a stronger record over longer periods. Over the past month the price fell 8.44%, and over the past three months it fell 0.47%, yet over the past year it rose 45.57%. In the last session the price rose 0.90% while last session volume was 36.5% below its average volume. The 14-day RSI sits at 52.5, which is neutral territory, and the MACD line is negative.
Analyst upgrade ›
Rothschild & Co upgraded it to Neutral from Sell on September 28, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Rothschild & Co, September 28, 2026New analyst coverage ›
Bernstein started coverage at Outperform on September 25, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Bernstein, September 25, 2026
Earnings miss ›
The August 5, 2026 report missed the EPS estimate by 15.08%, and the share price rose 0.02% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 5, 2026
- The two nearest levels matter most: the 50-day SMA at $123.37 sits above the price, and the 20-day EMA at $118.76 sits below it.
- CF's 14-day RSI stands at 52.5, which is neutral, and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- After the August 5, 2026 report the share price rose 0.02% in the first session; CF beat estimates in 5 of the last 7 reports.
CF's trend is mixed. The price is above its 200-day average of $114.42 but below its 50-day average of $123.37. Closing above the 50-day would turn both signals up, while closing below the 200-day would turn both down. For now, the price sits between the 20-day EMA of $118.76 below and the 50-day SMA of $123.37 above.
CF's 14-day RSI of 52.5 keeps it in neutral territory, somewhere between 40 and 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for CF, from its daily closes.
As of October 17, 2026, with CF at $120.85, its 14-day RSI is 52.5 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $123.37 and its 200-day is $114.42.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 17, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What CF moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 17, 2026, CF's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.00 with S&P 500 (SPY), -0.05 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), -0.02 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.02 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
6 of 22 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 13 a hold and 3 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $124.00 is 2.6% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
6 of 22 rate it a buy now, against 5 of 21 three months ago.
CF Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Upgrade | Neutral |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Bernstein | Initiates | Outperform |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Keybanc | Initiates | Underweight |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform |
| Aug 7, 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral |
| Jul 17, 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform |
As of October 17, 2026, 22 Wall Street analysts cover CF: 6 rate it a buy or strong buy, 13 a hold and 3 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $105.00 to $195.72, with a median of $124.00, 2.6% above the price of $120.85.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
CF trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from CF's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much CF tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
CF's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
4/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.95% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 57.3%, from October 2018 to March 2020, regained by May 2021.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
70% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $69,546, against $42,055 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
CF Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 17, 2026, CF's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -57.3% (October 2018 to March 2020); it regained that peak by May 2021, 14 months after the low, and 70% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into CF in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: CF beat the S&P 500 over this period: $69,546 against $42,055.
A $10,000 investment in CF in October 2016 would be worth about $69,546 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,055 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to CF, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +6.43%, up in 6 of 10 years.
Weakest month, October: an average of -3.13%, up in 3 of 9 years.
This month, October: has averaged -3.13%, up in 3 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, CF's strongest calendar month has been November (average +6.43%, up in 6 of 10 years) and its weakest October (average -3.13%, up in 3 of 9 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in CF, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CF today could grow to about $25,787 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $129,914 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,118. The simulation models price only; at today's 1.74% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CF Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $177 for CF by 2030 in the base case, from $121 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $63.48. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $79.67 | $133 | $222 | |
| 2028 | $70.87 | $146 | $301 | |
| 2029 | $66.22 | $161 | $389 | |
| 2030 | $63.48 | $177 | $491 | |
| 2031 | $61.85 | $194 | $609 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of CF's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
CF insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Insider buying: No insider bought CF shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 17, 2026, CF insiders reported 28 open-market sales worth $76.3M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Andrew Scribner
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 6.5K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Javed Ahmed
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Robert C Arzbaecher
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Deborah L. Dehaas
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | John W Eaves
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Susan A. Ellerbusch
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Yris Jesus Madrazo
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Anne P Noonan
Director
|
Grant | 2.2K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Michael Toelle
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Theresa E. Wagler
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Celso L White
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Trevor Leigh Williams,
Officer
|
Grant | 4.2K | - |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $756.0K |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Sell | 3.5K | $438.7K |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Erik M. Mayer
Officer
|
Sell | 1.5K | $187.0K |
| Mar 17, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Director
|
Grant | 17.7K | - |
| Mar 13, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Director
|
Sell | 81.7K | $10.3M |
| Mar 13, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Director
|
Grant | 96.9K | - |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Sell | 18.0K | $2.5M |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Sell | 6.3K | $854.3K |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Sell | 15.5K | $1.8M |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Michael Patrick Mcgrane
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.7K | $427.1K |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Erik M. Mayer
Officer
|
Sell | 2.2K | $255.7K |
| Mar 5, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Director
|
Sell | 57.4K | $6.3M |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Sell | 7.2K | $799.2K |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Sell | 6.2K | $676.1K |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Ashraf Khan Malik
Officer
|
Sell | 2.4K | $270.7K |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Linda M Dempsey
Officer
|
Sell | 2.0K | $213.0K |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Robert C Arzbaecher
Director
|
Grant | 11.6K | - |
| Mar 3, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Director
|
Sell | 64.3K | $7.0M |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Sell | 3.9K | $415.3K |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Michael Patrick Mcgrane
General Counsel
|
Sell | 2.8K | $291.4K |
| Mar 2, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Former
|
Sell | 237.4K | $24.4M |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Ashraf Khan Malik
Officer
|
Sell | 8.6K | $889.7K |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Sell | 6.9K | $713.2K |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Sell | 5.1K | $540.8K |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Sell | 5.6K | $553.6K |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Linda M Dempsey
Officer
|
Sell | 1.0K | $100.0K |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Christopher D Bohn
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 10.5K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Linda M Dempsey
Officer
|
Grant | 2.3K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Grant | 9.9K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Grant | 3.5K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ashraf Khan Malik
Officer
|
Grant | 4.1K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Erik M. Mayer
Officer
|
Grant | 968 | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Michael Patrick Mcgrane
General Counsel
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Grant | 7.0K | - |
| Feb 27, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Former
|
Grant | 40.6K | - |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Sell | 3.2K | $311.9K |
| Feb 20, 2026 | W Anthony Will
Director
|
Sell | 111.9K | $11.2M |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Christopher D Bohn
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 38.4K | - |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Linda M Dempsey
Officer
|
Grant | 2.6K | - |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Grant | 10.8K | - |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Michael Patrick Mcgrane
General Counsel
|
Grant | 6.2K | - |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Grant | 7.7K | - |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Grant | 1.1K | - |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Richard A. Hoker
Officer
|
Grant | 540 | - |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Susan L Menzel
Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $1.0M |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Bert A Frost
Officer
|
Sell | 26.0K | $2.6M |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Ashraf Khan Malik
Officer
|
Sell | 5.5K | $549.5K |
| May 13, 2025 | Robert C Arzbaecher
Director
|
Grant | 13.2K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Javed Ahmed
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Robert C Arzbaecher
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Deborah L. Dehaas
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | John W Eaves
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Susan A. Ellerbusch
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Stephen J Hagge
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Yris Jesus Madrazo
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Anne P Noonan
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Michael Toelle
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Theresa E. Wagler
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
| May 6, 2025 | Celso L White
Director
|
Grant | 2.1K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 17, 2026.