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As of September 11, 2026, BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP) trades at $87.35. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $76.50, 12.4% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $76.50 across 8 analysts. RSI at 35 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $87.63.
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP)
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored NYSE
$87.35
-4.900 (-5.31%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
44 / 100
BHP Group Ltd. is currently trading at $87.35, below the median analyst price target of $76.50, indicating a potential downside. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector, with its performance often tied to global commodity cycles. Recent analyst ratings show a mixed sentiment, with a majority holding a 'Hold' recommendation, reflecting uncertainties in future revenue streams. The projected revenue for the current year is estimated to decrease by 2.00% to $57.7 billion, with a further 1.00% decline anticipated for the next year, signaling potential challenges ahead. Despite these concerns, the company's technical indicators suggest a moderate buy signal from insider transactions, with $92.3K in net purchases, offering a glimmer of positive internal sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, BHP's valuation metrics need careful consideration against sector averages. While its P/E ratio of 23.90 is below the sector median of 30.20, the projected revenue contraction warrants caution. The company's health score of 4 suggests a generally sound operational standing, but the current market positioning, with the stock trading below its 50-day SMA ($87.63) but above its 200-day SMA ($77.07), points to prevailing bearish technical momentum. Investors should monitor commodity prices and global demand trends closely, as these factors significantly influence BHP's earnings potential and stock performance.
BHP Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$87.78
Day Range
$86.59 to $88.26
Prev Close
$92.25
Volume
3.68M
52-Week Range
$51.83 to $98.71
Market Cap
$222.00B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)
Performance vs XLB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-21%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
BHP Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, BHP beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
BHP Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-12.42% Downside
Median of 8 analysts (12-month)
$76.50
AI Technical Analysis
BHP Group Ltd. is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($87.63) but above its 200-day SMA ($77.07), indicating a bearish technical trend. The 50-day SMA is at $87.63 and the 200-day SMA is at $77.07, with the current price of $87.35 positioned between them but leaning towards the lower end of its recent trading range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.3, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is slightly positive at 0.76, suggesting a potential for a short-term shift but not a strong bullish reversal. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 3.68 million compared to an average of 2.32 million, indicating increased trading activity. Key support levels are not clearly defined by the moving averages, as the price is hovering near the 50-day SMA resistance. The 52-week high is not provided, but the current price action suggests a lack of immediate upward momentum. The stochastic indicator is at 6.27, indicating oversold conditions, which could precede a bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish. Investors should watch for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential shift in trend, while a failure to do so could lead to further downside pressure.
ProTips
- Monitor global commodity prices closely, as they are a primary driver of BHP Group Ltd.'s revenue and profitability.
- Given the bearish technical momentum, consider waiting for a confirmed break above the 50-day SMA ($87.63) before initiating new long positions.
- The moderate insider buying suggests some internal confidence, but it is overshadowed by analyst price targets below the current market price and projected revenue declines.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Insider Net Buying Activity
Insiders have made net purchases totaling $92.3K, indicating a moderate buy signal and potential confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Analyst Price Targets Below Current Price
The median analyst price target of $76.50 is 12.4% below the current trading price of $87.35, suggesting potential downside risk.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Projected Revenue Contraction
Revenue is projected to decline by 2.00% in the current year and an additional 1.00% in the next year, indicating potential headwinds for top-line growth.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($87.63) but above its 200-day SMA ($77.07), with RSI indicating bearish momentum, suggesting a potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for BHP Group Ltd. over the next 6-12 months suggests continued pressure, given the current bearish technical momentum and analyst price targets below the current trading level. The median target of $76.50 implies a potential downside of 12.4% from the current price of $87.35. Projected revenue declines for the current and next fiscal years further dampen the near-term outlook, indicating that the company may face challenges in growing its top line amidst prevailing market conditions. However, a shift in the outlook could be triggered by a significant recovery in commodity prices or a positive surprise in earnings that counters the current revenue contraction trend. The moderate insider buying activity, with net purchases totaling $92.3K, could signal underlying confidence from management. A sustained break above the 50-day SMA at $87.63 would be a key technical indicator to watch for a potential reversal of the bearish trend, while any positive developments in global demand for basic materials could also strengthen the stock's performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 222.00B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.90 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.86 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.94% |
| 52 Week High | 98.71 |
| 52 Week Low | 51.83 |
BHP Group Ltd. presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a P/E ratio of 23.90 that is below the Basic Materials sector median of 30.20, suggesting it may be attractively valued on this metric. However, this valuation is juxtaposed against projected revenue declines, with current year revenue expected to contract by 2.00% and next year by an additional 1.00%. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is not explicitly provided, but the sector average ROE is 17.9%, which serves as a benchmark for profitability efficiency. The current price-to-sales ratio is not provided, but the sector average is 4.2. While the company's health score is a solid 4 out of 5, indicating good financial standing, the forward-looking revenue estimates raise concerns about future growth prospects. The dividend yield of approximately 3.94% offers some income to investors, but the sustainability of this yield could be impacted by declining revenues. The market capitalization of $222 billion places it as a large-cap entity within its sector. Investors should weigh the current valuation discount against the anticipated revenue contraction and monitor commodity price trends that heavily influence BHP's top-line performance.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
BHP Group Ltd. has demonstrated mixed earnings performance in recent quarters. The most recent reported quarter (April 27, 2026) showed an EPS of $1.28, beating the estimate of $1.21 by 5.79%, though the stock experienced a 2.15% decline. Prior to that, on January 28, 2026, the company reported an EPS of $3.33, exceeding the estimate of $3.09 by 7.77% and resulting in a 1.71% stock price increase. However, the company missed estimates in the November 4, 2025, quarter with an EPS of $3.01 against an estimate of $3.16, leading to a 1.97% stock price gain, and was in line with estimates in the September 30, 2025, quarter with no price change. This pattern suggests inconsistent earnings beats and misses, with recent price reactions not always aligning with the surprise percentage.
Key Risks
BHP Group Ltd. faces significant risks stemming from projected revenue declines for the current and next fiscal years, indicating potential headwinds in its core business operations. Also, the stock is currently trading below key moving averages, signaling bearish technical momentum and a potential for further price depreciation. The median analyst price target of $76.50 is notably below the current trading price of $87.35, suggesting that Wall Street analysts anticipate a downside correction.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 35.30 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.76 |
| SMA 50 | 87.63 |
| SMA 200 | 77.07 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($87.63) above the 200-day SMA ($77.07), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.53
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
BHP Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$86.48
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$87.35
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$83.66
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (35.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$89.07
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$90.80
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$93.39
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for BHP is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in BHP in September 2016 would be worth about $31,567 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BHP today could grow to about $25,134 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $93,403 and a bear case around $6,763. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BHP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $126 for BHP by 2030 in the base case, from $87.35 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $55.06. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BHP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $63.24 | $95.78 | $145 |
| 2028 | $58.39 | $105 | $189 |
| 2029 | $56.12 | $115 | $236 |
| 2030 | $55.06 | $126 | $290 |
| 2031 | $54.74 | $138 | $350 |
| 2032 | $54.93 | $152 | $420 |
| 2033 | $55.52 | $167 | $499 |
| 2034 | $56.44 | $183 | $591 |
| 2035 | $57.63 | $200 | $696 |
| 2036 | $59.08 | $220 | $816 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using BHP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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BHP Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$92.3K
2 Transactions
Sold
None
No open-market sells
Insiders
1
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$46.2K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2025 | Goldberg (Gary J)
|
Buy | 1.0K | $42.6K |
| Mar 25, 2025 | Goldberg (Gary J)
|
Buy | 1.0K | $49.8K |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Goldberg (Gary J)
|
Buy | 1.0K | $52.3K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is BHP Group Ltd.'s current stock price and consensus rating?
As of September 11, 2026, BHP Group Ltd. is trading at $87.35 per share. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Hold', supported by a consensus score of 44 out of 100.
What are the key risks facing BHP Group Ltd. shareholders?
Key risks include projected revenue declines for the current and next fiscal years, bearish technical momentum indicated by prices trading below moving averages, and a median analyst price target that is below the current stock price.
How does BHP Group Ltd.'s valuation compare to its sector averages?
BHP's P/E ratio of 23.90 is below the Basic Materials sector median of 30.20. However, the sector average ROE is 17.9%, and the projected revenue contraction for BHP warrants caution despite the lower P/E.
What is BHP Group Ltd.'s projected revenue growth for the next two years?
For the current year, revenue is estimated to grow by -2.00% to $57.7 billion. For the next year, revenue growth is projected to be -1.00% to $56.9 billion.
What is the outlook for BHP Group Ltd. based on analyst price targets?
The median analyst price target for BHP Group Ltd. is $76.50, which is approximately 12.4% below the current trading price of $87.35. This suggests analysts anticipate a downside movement in the stock price.
Are there any recent insider transactions for BHP Group Ltd. that indicate management sentiment?
Yes, insiders are net buyers, with $92.3K in total purchases and $0 in total sales in recent filings, indicating a moderate buy signal from management.
What is BHP Group Ltd.'s long-range projection for 2030?
The long-range projection for BHP Group Ltd. in 2030 indicates a base case price of $126.29, with a downside price of $55.06 and an upside price of $289.69. These are outcomes from a Monte Carlo simulation and not guaranteed price targets.