Stock·NYSE·Basic Materials
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP)
- Market cap
- $211.60B
- P/E
- 21.97
- Dividend yield
- 4.13%
- Street target
- $78.50median of 8 analysts
- 52-week range
- $52.18 $98.71
The short version
Where BHP stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
BHP at a glance
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP): Hold, 48/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($80.59 and $88.67).
- Earnings BHP has not beaten estimates in any of its last 3 quarters.
- Insiders Insiders bought $145K and made no open-market sales in the filings on record.
- Valuation P/E of 22.0 against 30.2 for the Basic Materials sector: a discount to peers (-27%).
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP) carries a CleaRank rating of Hold and a model score of 48/100.
Valuation is the biggest contributor. The P/E of 21.97 is 27.3% below the sector median, which marks a discount to peers, and the P/S of 3.60 is 14.3% below the sector median. Momentum is the biggest drag, with the 14-day RSI at 39.2 in the bearish zone and the MACD line negative. The trend is mixed: the price is 6.10% below its 50-day average of $88.67 but 3.32% above its 200-day average of $80.59. Across the past year, the price gained 47.94%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from BHP's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
3/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $83.26 is 6.1% below the 50-day simple moving average of $88.67.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 3.3% above the 200-day simple moving average of $80.59.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($88.67) is 10.0% above the 200-day average ($80.59), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 67% of its 52-week range, between $52.18 and $98.71.
BHP share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far BHP has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where BHP sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
4/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 21.97 is 27.3% below the Basic Materials median of 30.2.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 3.60 is 14.3% below the sector median of 4.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $9.8B on revenue of $58.8B, a net margin of 16.7%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
BHP beat the EPS estimate in 0 of its last 3 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 4.13%, or $3.44 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for BHP.
As of October 16, 2026, BHP trades at $83.26, with a market value of $211.60B, a P/E ratio of 21.97 and a dividend yield of 4.13%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of BHP's valuation, growth and risks.
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP) has a trailing P/E of 21.97, which is 27.3% below the Basic Materials median of 30.2. The Peer Benchmarking card calls this a discount to peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.60 is 14.3% below the sector median of 4.2. Trailing earnings stand at $3.79 a share.
BHP's revenue growth lags the sector. Revenue rose 18.30% in the latest year, while the sector median is 19.0%. Profitability is strong, with a net margin of 16.73%, an operating margin of 43.34% and a return on equity of 24.00%, which sits above the sector median of 17.9%. On the balance sheet, debt-to-equity stands at 0.50. The trailing dividend yield is 4.13%, equal to $3.44 per share each year.
In the most recent available report in our data, dated February 8, 2012, BHP missed the estimate by 76.06%. EPS came in at $0.79, against the $3.30 analysts had expected. The share price still rose 1.15% in the first session after the report.
BHP has not beaten the EPS estimate in any of its last 3 reports. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $4.71 this fiscal year (a decline of 9.4%) and $4.67 the year after (a decline of 0.8%).
BHP's daily returns have a 30-day standard deviation of 1.69%. The price sits 15.65% below its 52-week high of $98.71.
BHP against the Basic Materials sector
How BHP compares with the median Basic Materials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: BHP trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-27%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs XLB: Since May 5, 2025, BHP has gained 70.5% against a gain of 20.0% for XLB.
Performance against XLB
BHP and the Basic Materials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much BHP sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Earnings reality check
Did BHP beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: BHP did not beat the analyst estimate in the last 3 quarters.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2012after close | $3.30 | $0.79 | -76.06% | +1.15% | -0.94% |
| Aug 21, 2007after close | $2.70 | $2.60 | -3.70% | +1.15% | -0.94% |
| Feb 6, 2007after close | $2.12 | $2.08 | -1.89% | +1.15% | -0.94% |
The August 15, 2022 report is not shown: the figures our data provider supplied for it failed our checks.
As of October 16, 2026, BHP has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 0 of its last 3 reported quarters; its most recent report with reliable figures, on February 8, 2012, came in 76.06% below the estimate and the stock moved +1.15% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 39.2, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 39.2 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of BHP
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP) gives a mixed trend reading. The price of $83.26 sits 6.10% below its 50-day average of $88.67, yet it is 3.32% above its 200-day average of $80.59. The 50-day average is 10.03% above the 200-day, so the longer averages have not yet adjusted to the weaker recent price. Over the past year, the price is 59.56% above the 52-week low of $52.18 and 15.65% below the high of $98.71.
BHP has pulled back recently, but its longer record is firmer. The price fell 1.05% over the past month, while it rose 3.25% over three months and 47.94% over the past year. Momentum is weak for now: the 14-day RSI of 39.2 sits in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, and the MACD line is negative. In the last session, volume came in 66.5% above its average as the price gained 0.43%.
Earnings miss ›
The February 8, 2012 report missed the EPS estimate by 76.06%, and the share price rose 1.15% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, February 8, 2012
Rating reaffirmed ›
B of A Securities kept its Neutral rating on June 22, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, B of A Securities, June 22, 2026
- The two nearest levels matter most: the 20-day EMA at $85.49 sits above the price, and the 200-day SMA at $80.59 sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI is 39.2, in the bearish zone, and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 point to stretched momentum.
- BHP's share price rose 1.15% in the first session after the February 8, 2012 report, yet the company beat estimates in 0 of the last 3 reports.
BHP's trend signals disagree. The price is above its 200-day average of $80.59 but below its 50-day average of $88.67. A close above the 50-day would flip both signals to up, while a close below the 200-day would flip both to down. Looking at the nearest levels, the 200-day SMA at $80.59 sits below the price, and the 20-day EMA at $85.49 sits above it.
Momentum, with the RSI in the bearish zone, still points lower.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for BHP, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with BHP at $83.26, its 14-day RSI is 39.2 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $88.67 and its 200-day is $80.59.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What BHP moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, BHP's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.53 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.52 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.34 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.47 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
1/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
2 of 8 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 2 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $78.50 is 5.7% below the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
2 of 8 rate it a buy now, against 1 of 8 three months ago.
BHP Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral |
As of October 16, 2026, 8 Wall Street analysts cover BHP: 2 rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 2 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $61.50 to $96.00, with a median of $78.50, 5.7% below the price of $83.26.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
BHP trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from BHP's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much BHP tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
BHP's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
4/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.69% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 44.4%, from July 2019 to March 2020, regained by August 2020.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
76% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $49,167, against $42,525 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
BHP Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 16, 2026, BHP's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -44.4% (July 2019 to March 2020); it regained that peak by August 2020, 5 months after the low, and 76% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into BHP in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: BHP beat the S&P 500 over this period: $49,167 against $42,525.
A $10,000 investment in BHP in October 2016 would be worth about $49,167 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,525 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to BHP, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +6.58%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -2.75%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -1.41%, up in 5 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, BHP's strongest calendar month has been January (average +6.58%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -2.75%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in BHP, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BHP today could grow to about $21,514 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $79,697 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,808. The simulation models price only; at today's 4.13% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BHP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $113 for BHP by 2030 in the base case, from $83.26 today (1.4x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $49.41. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BHP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $59.41 | $89.89 | $136 | |
| 2028 | $54.03 | $97.05 | $174 | |
| 2029 | $51.14 | $105 | $215 | |
| 2030 | $49.41 | $113 | $259 | |
| 2031 | $48.38 | $122 | $308 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of BHP's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
BHP insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Insider buying: Insiders bought $145K on the open market.
As of October 16, 2026, BHP insiders reported no open-market sales and 3 open-market purchases worth $145K in the filings on record; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2025 | Goldberg (Gary J)
|
Buy | 1.0K | $42.6K |
| Mar 25, 2025 | Goldberg (Gary J)
|
Buy | 1.0K | $49.8K |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Goldberg (Gary J)
|
Buy | 1.0K | $52.3K |
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.