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As of September 11, 2026, LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH) trades at $9.38. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $15.40, 64.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $15.40 across 5 analysts. RSI at 25 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $11.89.
LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH)
LightPath Technologies Inc NASDAQ
$9.38
-0.3050 (-3.15%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
LightPath Technologies Inc. (LPTH) is currently trading at $9.375, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.89 and $11.96), signaling a bearish technical trend. However, the company is experiencing exceptional revenue growth, with projections indicating a 51.00% increase next quarter and 46.00% next year, far exceeding sector averages. This growth is supported by a strong Wall Street consensus, with 5 analysts rating the stock a Buy and a median price target of $15.40, implying a 64.3% upside potential. Despite current technical weakness, the fundamental outlook driven by strong revenue expansion and positive analyst sentiment presents a bullish case for investors.
LPTH Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$9.27
Day Range
$9.14 to $9.90
Prev Close
$9.68
Volume
153.4K
52-Week Range
$4.71 to $18.94
Market Cap
$642.37M
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, LPTH trades at 10.23x, +144% versus the sector average of 4.20x.
LPTH Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, LPTH beat estimates 1 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
LPTH Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+64.27% Upside
Median of 5 analysts (12-month)
$15.40
AI Technical Analysis
LightPath Technologies Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.89 and $11.96), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 24.64, signaling oversold conditions and a potential for a bounce. MACD is also negative at -0.84, reinforcing the current bearish momentum. Volume has been significantly below average recently, suggesting a lack of conviction from traders in the current price action. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the limited trading history and recent price action, but the oversold RSI suggests that further downside may be limited in the short term.
ProTips
- Monitor insider activity closely; while current selling is from a parent divestiture, any shift to officer selling could signal a change in management's confidence.
- Given the oversold RSI reading, traders may look for a technical bounce, but the underlying trend remains bearish until the stock can reclaim its key moving averages.
- Focus on the company's ability to achieve profitability as revenue growth continues; this will be key to sustaining analyst optimism and achieving the projected price targets.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Forward revenue estimates show significant year-over-year growth of 51.00% for the next quarter and 46.00% for the next year, indicating strong demand for LightPath's products.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Wall Street Consensus
With 5 analysts rating the stock a Buy and a median price target of $15.40, there is strong institutional conviction in the company's future prospects.
Source: Wall Street SummaryNeutral
Parent Divestiture of Stake
NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P. is reducing its stake, representing $90.1M in sales. This is classified as a corporate restructuring, not a bearish signal from management.
Source: Insider SummaryBullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 24.64, indicating oversold conditions that could precede a technical bounce or reversal in the stock price.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The outlook for LightPath Technologies Inc. is cautiously optimistic, driven by strong revenue growth projections and a consensus Buy rating from Wall Street analysts. The median price target of $15.40 suggests significant upside potential from the current price, indicating that the market may be undervaluing the company's growth prospects. The company is expected to continue its rapid revenue expansion, which could eventually translate into profitability and support higher valuations. Investors should monitor the company's ability to convert revenue growth into positive EPS and manage its operational costs effectively.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 642.37M |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.5000 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 18.94 |
| 52 Week Low | 4.71 |
LightPath Technologies Inc. exhibits strong revenue growth, with reported growth of 108.9% and forward estimates projecting over 50% year-over-year growth for the next two quarters, significantly outpacing the sector average of 10.0%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) is currently negative at -0.50, making traditional P/E ratio analysis impossible. However, the substantial revenue expansion suggests a company in a high-growth phase. The current price of $9.375 appears to discount future growth, given the analyst median target of $15.40.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
LightPath Technologies Inc. recently reported earnings that slightly missed estimates, with an EPS of $1.21 versus an estimate of $1.22 for the quarter ending July 21, 2026, resulting in a -0.82% surprise and a -4.19% price change. The prior quarter also saw a slight miss on EPS estimates. Despite these minor misses, the company's revenue growth trajectory remains exceptionally strong, indicating operational progress that analysts are factoring into their positive outlook and price targets.
Key Risks
The primary risk for LightPath Technologies Inc. lies in its negative EPS and the inability to perform traditional P/E valuation, suggesting potential profitability challenges or ongoing investment for growth. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, indicating technical weakness and potential for further downside if momentum does not shift. Also, the significant insider selling, although attributed to parent divestiture, warrants monitoring for any signs of broader management concern.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 24.64 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.84 |
| SMA 50 | 11.89 |
| SMA 200 | 11.96 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 24.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
LPTH Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$9.188
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$9.375
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$7.927
MAX LOSS
-13.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (24.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$9.647
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$10.11
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$10.57
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
LPTH is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 7.43%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LPTH in September 2016 would be worth about $50,417 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LPTH today could grow to about $30,889 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $234,343 and a bear case around $4,071. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LPTH Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $14.72 for LPTH by 2030 in the base case, from $9.38 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $4.09. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LPTH's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $5.53 | $10.49 | $19.92 |
| 2028 | $4.75 | $11.75 | $29.07 |
| 2029 | $4.33 | $13.15 | $39.90 |
| 2030 | $4.09 | $14.72 | $53.03 |
| 2031 | $3.93 | $16.48 | $69.05 |
| 2032 | $3.84 | $18.44 | $88.62 |
| 2033 | $3.79 | $20.65 | $112 |
| 2034 | $3.77 | $23.11 | $142 |
| 2035 | $3.78 | $25.87 | $177 |
| 2036 | $3.82 | $28.96 | $220 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LPTH's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. LPTH is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LPTH Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.7K
1 Transactions
Sold
$90.1M
9 Transactions
Insiders
6
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$9.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.6M | $50.0M |
| Feb 24, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 733.4K | $9.1M |
| Jan 5, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 770.3K | $9.0M |
| Mar 4, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 675.0K | $8.2M |
| Mar 25, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 356.9K | $4.4M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 300.1K | $3.7M |
| May 14, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 293.1K | $3.6M |
| Mar 18, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 120.5K | $1.4M |
| May 18, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 55.3K | $681.1K |
| Jun 2, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Option | 3.6M | $7.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is LightPath Technologies Inc.'s stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, LightPath Technologies Inc.'s stock price is projected to be around $14.72 by 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $4.09, while the upside projection reaches $53.03. These figures represent statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.
Is LightPath Technologies Inc. stock a buy right now?
LightPath Technologies Inc. is currently rated a Buy by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 80 out of 100. The median analyst price target of $15.40 suggests a potential upside of 64.3% from the current price of $9.375.
What are the biggest risks facing LightPath Technologies Inc.?
The main risks include negative earnings per share, which prevents traditional P/E valuation, and current technical indicators showing the stock trading below key moving averages. Additionally, while insider selling is dominated by parent divestiture, any shift in management sentiment could pose a risk.
How is LightPath Technologies Inc. performing in terms of revenue growth compared to its sector?
LightPath Technologies Inc. is demonstrating exceptional revenue growth, with reported growth of 108.9% and forward estimates projecting over 50% year-over-year growth for the next two quarters. This significantly outpaces the technology sector average revenue growth of 10.0%.
What is the Wall Street consensus on LightPath Technologies Inc. stock?
The Wall Street consensus for LightPath Technologies Inc. is predominantly positive, with 5 analysts rating it a Buy and no analysts rating it Hold or Sell. This results in a consensus score of 80 out of 100.
What is the current technical outlook for LightPath Technologies Inc. stock?
Technically, LightPath Technologies Inc. is exhibiting bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.89 and $11.96) with an RSI indicating oversold conditions. Recent volume has been notably low.
How has LightPath Technologies Inc. performed in its recent earnings reports?
LightPath Technologies Inc. has shown slight misses in its most recent earnings reports, with EPS estimates being narrowly missed in the last two quarters. Despite these small deviations, the company's strong revenue growth remains a key focus for analysts.