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As of October 10, 2026, LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH) trades at $9.720. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $15.50, 59.5% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $15.50 across 5 analysts. RSI at 43 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $11.27.
LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH)
LightPath Technologies Inc NASDAQ
$9.72
-0.0200 (-0.21%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
79 / 100
LightPath Technologies Inc. (LPTH) is currently trading at $9.72, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $12.18), signaling near-term technical weakness. However, the company is experiencing significant revenue acceleration, with current year revenue growth projected at 49.00% year-over-year, and next year's growth estimated at 42.00%. This top-line expansion is supported by a strong analyst consensus of 'Buy' with a median price target of $15.50, implying a 59.5% upside. The company's financial health shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating a strong balance sheet. While current profitability metrics like net profit margin are negative (-28.65%), forward-looking EPS estimates suggest a move towards profitability, with positive EPS expected in the next quarter and current year. The significant revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment are key drivers for the 'Buy' rating.
LPTH Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$9.90
Day Range
$9.62 to $9.98
Prev Close
$9.74
Volume
2.09M
52-Week Range
$5.83 to $18.94
Market Cap
$680.75M
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, LPTH trades at 9.49x, +27% versus the sector average of 7.50x.
LPTH Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, LPTH beat estimates 0 times. The company has struggled to beat estimates recently.
LPTH Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+59.47% Upside
Median of 5 analysts (12-month)
$15.50
AI Technical Analysis
LightPath Technologies Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $12.18), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The RSI is at 43.18, falling within the neutral momentum range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Volume has been below its average over the last 200 days, with the latest volume at 2.09 million compared to an average of 2.40 million. The stock's current price action suggests it is facing resistance at its short-term moving averages. The neutral RSI indicates a lack of strong momentum in either direction, but the positioning below key moving averages points to potential downside risk if support levels are breached. Investors should monitor for a break above the 50-day SMA as a potential signal of a trend reversal.
ProTips
- Monitor LightPath Technologies Inc.'s ability to achieve profitability as revenue growth accelerates; this is key to sustaining the current analyst 'Buy' ratings and upside potential.
- The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $12.18), indicating technical weakness. A sustained move above these levels would be a positive signal for a trend reversal.
- Given the current negative profit margins, investors should consider the company's cash burn rate and runway, although its low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 provides some balance sheet strength.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts project substantial revenue growth for LightPath Technologies Inc., with current year estimates at 49.00% and next year at 42.00%, indicating strong market demand for its products.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive EPS Estimates Emerging
Forward-looking EPS estimates suggest a transition to profitability, with positive figures expected in the next quarter and current year, aligning with the 'Buy' consensus.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Analyst Price Target Upside
The median analyst price target of $15.50 represents a 59.5% upside from the current stock price, reflecting strong conviction from the analyst community.
Source: Wall Street SummaryNeutral
Parent Company Stake Reduction
NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P. has been reducing its stake, representing $90.1M in sales. This is classified as a parent divestiture and corporate restructuring, not a bearish signal from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsMarket Outlook
LightPath Technologies Inc. is expected to see continued strong revenue growth over the next 1-2 years, with current year projections at 49.00% and next year at 42.00%. Analysts anticipate a move towards profitability, with positive EPS estimates for the upcoming quarters and current year. The median analyst price target of $15.50 suggests a significant upside potential of 59.5% from the current price. The primary upside catalyst would be the successful translation of this revenue growth into sustained profitability and positive cash flow, which could further validate the optimistic analyst ratings. Conversely, a failure to achieve profitability or a slowdown in revenue growth could lead to a re-evaluation of the current valuation, potentially causing the stock to test lower support levels, especially given its current positioning below key moving averages.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 680.75M |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.3800 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 18.94 |
| 52 Week Low | 5.83 |
LightPath Technologies Inc. exhibits a high price-to-sales ratio of 9.49, which is above the sector median of 7.50, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its current sales. The company's return on equity is negative at -19.73%, and its profit margin is also negative at -28.65%, indicating it is currently loss-making. However, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is a very low 0.07, signaling minimal financial leverage and a strong balance sheet. Despite the current negative profitability and high P/S ratio, the projected revenue growth of 49.00% for the current year and 42.00% for the next year, coupled with analyst estimates for positive EPS in the near future, suggests a potential turnaround and growth story. The market appears to be pricing in this future growth, leading to the current valuation metrics.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
LightPath Technologies Inc. reported mixed earnings results. For the quarter ending September 2026, actual EPS was $0.01, matching the estimate with no surprise, and the stock saw a price decline of 4.96%. In the prior quarter ending December 2025, actual EPS was $-0.02, also matching the estimate, but the stock experienced a significant price increase of 21.52%. The company's revenue growth is a strong point, with current year revenue expected to grow by 49.00% year-over-year.
Key Risks
LightPath Technologies Inc. faces valuation risks, as indicated by its high price-to-sales ratio of 9.49 compared to the sector median of 7.50. The company is currently loss-making, with a negative profit margin of -28.65% and negative return on equity of -19.73%, presenting a risk if revenue growth does not translate into profitability. Also, the stock is trading below its key moving averages, suggesting potential for further price declines if current technical weakness persists.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 43.18 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.20 |
| SMA 50 | 11.27 |
| SMA 200 | 12.18 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $11.27, 200-day: $12.18), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.23
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.12
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with LPTH? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
LPTH Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$9.526
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$9.720
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$8.859
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (43.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$10.00
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$10.48
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$10.95
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
LPTH is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 4.35%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LPTH in October 2016 would be worth about $56,512 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LPTH today could grow to about $32,317 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $245,179 and a bear case around $4,260. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LPTH Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $15.54 for LPTH by 2030 in the base case, from $9.72 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $4.31. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LPTH's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $5.76 | $10.93 | $20.74 |
| 2028 | $4.97 | $12.29 | $30.42 |
| 2029 | $4.55 | $13.82 | $41.93 |
| 2030 | $4.31 | $15.54 | $55.98 |
| 2031 | $4.17 | $17.47 | $73.23 |
| 2032 | $4.09 | $19.65 | $94.41 |
| 2033 | $4.05 | $22.09 | $120 |
| 2034 | $4.06 | $24.84 | $152 |
| 2035 | $4.09 | $27.94 | $191 |
| 2036 | $4.14 | $31.41 | $238 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LPTH's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. LPTH is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LPTH Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.7K
1 Transactions
Sold
$90.1M
9 Transactions
Insiders
6
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$9.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.6M | $50.0M |
| Feb 24, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 733.4K | $9.1M |
| Jan 5, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 770.3K | $9.0M |
| Mar 4, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 675.0K | $8.2M |
| Mar 25, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 356.9K | $4.4M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 300.1K | $3.7M |
| May 14, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 293.1K | $3.6M |
| Mar 18, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 120.5K | $1.4M |
| May 18, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 55.3K | $681.1K |
| Jun 2, 2026 | NORTH RUN STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND I, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Option | 3.6M | $7.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is LightPath Technologies Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, LightPath Technologies Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $15.54 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $4.31, while the upside projection reaches $55.98. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is LightPath Technologies Inc. stock a buy?
LightPath Technologies Inc. currently holds a 'Buy' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $15.50, suggesting a potential 59.5% upside from the current price of $9.72. The company is also experiencing significant revenue growth.
What are the main risks for LightPath Technologies Inc.?
Key risks for LightPath Technologies Inc. include its current loss-making status with a negative profit margin of -28.65% and a high price-to-sales ratio of 9.49, which is above the sector median. The stock is also trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($11.27 and $12.18), indicating technical weakness.
How is LightPath Technologies Inc. performing financially?
LightPath Technologies Inc. is demonstrating strong revenue growth, with current year revenue projected to increase by 49.00%. While the company is currently unprofitable with a negative profit margin, forward-looking EPS estimates suggest a move towards profitability in the near future.
What is the outlook for LightPath Technologies Inc.'s revenue growth?
Analysts project strong revenue growth for LightPath Technologies Inc., with an estimated 49.00% increase for the current year and a further 42.00% growth anticipated for the next year. This strong top-line expansion is a key driver of positive analyst sentiment.
How does LightPath Technologies Inc. compare to its sector peers?
LightPath Technologies Inc. has a higher price-to-sales ratio (9.49) than the sector median (7.50) and a negative return on equity (-19.73%) compared to the sector's positive 13.40%. However, its revenue growth of 73.3% significantly outpaces the sector average of 24.1%.
What is the Wall Street consensus on LightPath Technologies Inc. stock?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus for LightPath Technologies Inc., with 1 Strong Buy and 4 Buy ratings out of 5 total analysts. The consensus score is 79 out of 100, and the median price target is $15.50.