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As of October 11, 2026, Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) trades at $318.84. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $385.00, 20.8% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $385.00 across 35 analysts. RSI at 60 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $310.69.
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)
Lam Research Corp. NASDAQ
$318.84
-1.750 (-0.55%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
74 / 100
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is trading at $318.84, with analysts setting a median price target of $385.00, implying a 20.8% upside. The company operates in the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry within the Technology sector, a space where it demonstrates exceptional performance. Lam Research's recent earnings have shown consistent beats, with the quarter to June 2026 reporting an EPS of $1.82 against an estimate of $1.68, a 8.33% surprise, and a significant 17.98% price increase following the announcement. This performance aligns with strong forward-looking revenue estimates, with the next quarter projected to see 59.00% year-over-year growth. Fundamentally, Lam Research exhibits a strong financial profile. Its profit margin stands at 31.27% and operating margin at 37.39%, significantly outpacing sector medians. While its P/E ratio of 55.64 is higher than the sector average of 34, this is supported by its exceptional revenue growth of 30% and projected earnings growth of 23.99% next year. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 is in line with sector averages, and its return on equity is a strong 65.07%. The current price is above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($310.69 and $279.16), indicating a positive trend, though it is currently below its 20-day EMA ($319.06).
LRCX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$326.00
Day Range
$316.01 to $326.72
Prev Close
$320.59
Volume
4.59M
52-Week Range
$130.81 to $438.50
Market Cap
$399.00B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+64%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
LRCX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, LRCX beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
LRCX Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+20.75% Upside
Median of 35 analysts (12-month)
$385.00
AI Technical Analysis
Lam Research's stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($310.69 and $279.16), signaling an overall bullish trend. However, it is currently trading below its 20-day exponential moving average ($319.06), suggesting some near-term consolidation or resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.98, indicating neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD is positive at 6.99, further supporting the bullish trend. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 4.59 million compared to an average of 7.48 million, a 38.6% decrease. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA, while resistance may be found near recent highs and the 20-day EMA.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling activity closely, as significant dispositions could signal a shift in management's short-term outlook.
- Lam Research's stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($310.69 and $279.16), indicating a generally positive trend, but watch for resistance near the 20-day EMA.
- Given the high P/E ratio, consider position sizing carefully to manage risk, especially if market sentiment shifts towards value stocks.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat and Positive Guidance
The quarter to June 2026 EPS beat of 8.33% and subsequent 17.98% stock price increase highlight the company's ability to exceed expectations and capitalize on market demand.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Projected year-over-year revenue growth of 59.00% for the next quarter and 50.00% for the current year indicates strong demand for Lam Research's semiconductor equipment.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Significant Insider Selling
Over $177 million in insider sales with no corresponding purchases suggests potential concerns among management regarding the stock's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
With 35 analysts covering the stock, the consensus is predominantly Buy, and the median price target of $385.00 implies a 20.8% upside potential.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
Lam Research's base case scenario anticipates continued growth driven by strong demand in the semiconductor industry, with analysts projecting revenue to reach $41.3 billion next year and earnings per share to hit $11.74. The median analyst target price of $385.00 suggests a potential upside of 20.8% from the current price, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position. Potential upside catalysts include continued technological advancements in semiconductor manufacturing, increasing demand for advanced chips, and successful expansion into new markets. Conversely, downside risks include a significant slowdown in global chip demand, increased competition leading to pricing pressures, and macroeconomic headwinds that could dampen capital expenditures by semiconductor manufacturers. Any materialization of these risks could negatively impact the stock's performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 399.00B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.64 |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.73 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.35% |
| 52 Week High | 438.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 130.81 |
Lam Research's valuation, with a P/E ratio of 55.64, appears stretched compared to the sector median of 34. However, this premium is justified by its exceptional revenue growth of 30% and a projected earnings growth rate of 23.99% for next year. The company's profit margin of 31.27% and operating margin of 37.39% are significantly higher than sector averages, indicating strong operational efficiency and pricing power. The balance sheet remains healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, which is comparable to the sector median. The return on equity at 65.07% is outstanding, demonstrating effective use of shareholder capital. Given the strong growth prospects and superior profitability metrics, the current valuation, while high, is supported by fundamental strength.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Lam Research has a track record of beating earnings estimates, most recently reporting an EPS of $1.82 for the quarter to June 2026, surpassing the estimate of $1.68 by 8.33% and leading to a significant 17.98% stock price increase. This follows a pattern of positive surprises, with the exception of a larger-than-expected loss in the quarter to September 2025. Revenue growth is exceptionally strong, with next quarter's estimates projecting a 59.00% year-over-year increase, signaling strong demand for its semiconductor equipment.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Lam Research is its high valuation, with a P/E ratio of 55.64 significantly exceeding the sector average, making it vulnerable to market corrections or shifts in investor sentiment. Additionally, significant insider selling, with $177.4 million in total sales versus no reported purchases, raises concerns about management's near-term outlook despite the company's strong fundamentals. Competition within the semiconductor equipment sector is intense, and any slowdown in wafer fabrication demand could impact future revenue and earnings.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 59.98 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 6.99 |
| SMA 50 | 310.69 |
| SMA 200 | 279.16 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($310.69) above the 200-day SMA ($279.16), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.64
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.74
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with LRCX? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
LRCX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$312.46
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$318.84
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$296.59
MAX LOSS
-5.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (60.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$328.09
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$343.71
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$359.33
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
LRCX is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.22%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LRCX in October 2016 would be worth about $320,153 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LRCX today could grow to about $51,183 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $337,912 and a bear case around $7,753. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LRCX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $613 for LRCX by 2030 in the base case, from $319 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $186. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LRCX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $207 | $375 | $682 |
| 2028 | $190 | $442 | $1,028 |
| 2029 | $185 | $520 | $1,463 |
| 2030 | $186 | $613 | $2,021 |
| 2031 | $190 | $721 | $2,740 |
| 2032 | $197 | $849 | $3,664 |
| 2033 | $206 | $1,000 | $4,850 |
| 2034 | $218 | $1,177 | $6,368 |
| 2035 | $231 | $1,386 | $8,306 |
| 2036 | $247 | $1,632 | $10,774 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LRCX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. LRCX is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LRCX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$177.4M
23 Transactions
Insiders
19
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$7.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | ARCHER TIMOTHY M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 163.3K | $26.8M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | BRANDT ERIC K
Director
|
Sell | 54.5K | $20.0M |
| Jun 11, 2026 | BRANDT ERIC K
Director
|
Sell | 54.5K | $19.1M |
| Sep 2, 2026 | VARADARAJAN SESHASAYEE
Officer
|
Sell | 59.8K | $17.4M |
| Aug 30, 2022 | BETTINGER DOUGLAS R
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 34.9K | $15.3M |
| Jun 28, 2024 | ARCHER TIMOTHY M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 13.7K | $14.7M |
| Jul 2, 2026 | ARCHER TIMOTHY M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $11.7M |
| Mar 4, 2026 | BETTINGER DOUGLAS R
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 50.1K | $11.2M |
| Jun 28, 2024 | ARCHER TIMOTHY M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 9.7K | $10.3M |
| Mar 19, 2024 | VARADARAJAN SESHASAYEE
Officer
|
Sell | 11.0K | $10.1M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lam Research's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Lam Research's stock price is projected to be $612.66 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $185.70, while the upside projection reaches $2021.31. These figures represent statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.
Is Lam Research a buy right now?
Lam Research is currently rated a Buy with a consensus score of 74 out of 100. Analysts have a median price target of $385.00, suggesting a 20.8% upside from the current price of $318.84.
What are Lam Research's recent earnings results?
In the quarter to June 2026, Lam Research reported an EPS of $1.82, beating estimates of $1.68 by 8.33%, and the stock reacted positively with a 17.98% price increase. The company has a history of earnings beats, indicating strong operational performance.
How does Lam Research's profitability compare to its peers?
Lam Research demonstrates superior profitability with a profit margin of 31.27% and an operating margin of 37.39%, significantly outperforming the sector median profit margin of 13.4%.
What is the outlook for Lam Research's revenue growth?
Revenue growth is a key strength for Lam Research, with current estimates projecting a 59.00% year-over-year increase for the next quarter and a 50.00% increase for the current year, indicating strong demand for its products.
Are there any significant insider transactions for Lam Research?
Insiders have been net sellers of Lam Research stock, with total sales amounting to $177.4 million and no reported purchases. This heavy sell signal warrants attention despite the company's strong fundamentals.
What are the main risks facing Lam Research?
The primary risks include its high valuation (P/E of 55.64 vs. sector median of 34), significant insider selling, and intense competition within the semiconductor equipment industry, which could impact future performance.